Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Market Dow 30k before End of 2020? - 13th Jul 20
Credit Market Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again - 13th Jul 20
Investors Are Going All-In on This Coronavirus Proof Industry - 13th Jul 20
5 Vital Insights That You Can Gain From Instagram Trackers - 13th Jul 20
Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market - 12th Jul 20
Spotify Recealed as The “Next Netflix” - 12th Jul 20
Getting Ahead of the Game: What Determines the Prices of Oil? - 12th Jul 20
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Stock Market Catches a Bottom

Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets Nov 10, 2008 - 06:39 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe market is not acting as if it's ready to break down. A good catch by the bulls at the very bottom of the current triangles. I mentioned last night that the daily charts were strong and thus it can come as no surprise that we were higher today. It's so easy to say that the past two days spell doom for the markets but those daily's, being as strong as they are, were able to stop the bears from breaking this market down right at the bottom of those back and forth triangles.


It suggests the possibility of a very decent move back up to the top of those triangle's if not higher over the next many days and weeks. In this market, that is no guarantee but the 60's, which were nasty most of the day, did improve some late and if those Macd's on the 60's can cross, and they're close, then this market will be able to move to the top of the triangle's. Those levels are decently far away and that would create a real buying opportunity for the short term. Those  levels being 980 Sp and 1740 Nas.

If the top of the triangle's were to be taken out, then you're talking once again about moving to the 50's which are normally visited during a bear market but have yet to do so in this one. It's declining rapidly to meet price so it's not out of the question. 1049 is the current and steadily declining number on the Sp 50 day exponential moving average and 1886 is the number on the Nas. I know those levels seem like an unattainable dream but if we get those 60 minute crosses it's possible folks.

The top  of the triangle's at least and maybe more. Monday will be a huge day to see what this market has got in it from a near term bullish perspective. If nothing else, those daily Macd's are far too bullish still to be thinking shorts. There were some elements to today's rally that didn't sit too well with me in the form of much lighter volume on the rally and once again, the leaders refusing to participate. Aapl, Goog and a whole bunch more you all know by now were either red for the day or barely green. The fact that most if not just about all of them are also at the bottom of their triangle's, it is possible that they will begin to participate on the long side starting Monday.

The Nas volume today was 500 million shares lighter than the down volume from Thursday. Not exactly the type of confirmation you're looking for when thinking a move to the top is possible near term. Through the years I have found that the single most important elements in technical analysis are the state of the daily Macd's and the type of volume the market is displaying.

The daily Macd's are powerful but volume trends aren't great thus we have a standoff there. If I have a standoff such as this I usually defer to the daily Macd's as the final decision maker and thus I do think it's more likely volume will start to improve early on next week and that the markets will move higher.

The final bug in the ointment today was an inside day was printed on that lighter volume. A day where the upside candle sticks traded within the larger downside candlestick from Thursday off a nasty two day move lower. Often the trend will continue which was lower previous to the inside day but once again, I have to defer to those daily Macd's as the decision maker. We shall see on Monday for sure. When a market wants to go higher, there is no news out there that can adversely affect the action to come for that day. The market was near breakdown and the employment report was nothing short of horrific. Every excuse was there for the bears to crush the market but after the futures fell for a quick moment, they recovered quickly and the buying was on for the day. Late selling came in which took down much of the gains but with fifteen minutes left the bulls came in and ramped the market in to the close allowing the indexes to close at or just shy of their highs for the day.

The employment report was worse than even the most pessimistic prognosticators had forecast. Didn't matter because those daily's said it was rally time and nothing was getting in the way of that. It's never about the news. It's about where the market needs to go at any given moment of time. The longer term is very unclear. How we might advance now and in the days ahead will tell us some of that story meaning how those oscillators behave but for now it's just too early to know how bad things may get down the road. In a market environment such as this you have to take things day to day. We felt shorting on this latest two day pullback was inappropriate based on those strong daily Macd's. You have to play what you see and stay cash for as long as needed when in these triangle's but it does look like there's a small buying window upon us.

When we get to the top the market message will be loud and clear. Can we finally make a break that allows at least a 50 day moving average test or will it just quit? If we get the move to the 50's, what will the oscillators look like? We need to watch and learn from that whole process to determine whether the market has seen it's worst days or whether a lot more pain is coming down the road.

It's very unclear at this point in time and I'd be wasting your time if I said I was sure about what was to come. No one knows but we will learn a lot over the coming days and weeks for sure. Wfc (Wells Fargo) printed a nice candle today, closing well above its gap down low created by last nights news of needing to do a secondary stock offering in order to raise ten billion additional dollars above and beyond what the Fed has already given to them. It shows you how bad things really are in the credit world and for the banks. That news was bad for sure and it gapped down today and rightly so but the strong close is another sign that it's likely the market wants some real upside in the short term. The banking sector or the Bkx looks pretty good short term as well and maybe that's why it rose late in the day. 

If the banks can rally near term it's very likely we get the move higher from here. Wfc a probable good tell for that rally coming up near term. Never a guarantee but that stocks action today does bode well. Have a great weekend. Spend time with a child if at all humanly possible.

By Jack Steiman

Sign up for a free 30-day trial to Jack Steiman's SwingTradeOnline. .

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 30-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2008 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

Jack Steiman Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules