Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen - John_Mauldin
2. Stocks Bull Market Grinds Bears into Dust, Is Santa Rally Sustainable? - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Gold and Silver 2015 Trend Forecasts, Prices to Go BOOM - Austin_Galt
4.Gold Price Golden Bottom? - Toby_Connor
5.Gold Price and Miners Soar on Huge Volume - P_Radomski_CFA
6.Stock Market and the Jaws of Life or Death? - Rambus_Chartology
7.Gold Price 2015 - EWI
8.Manipulated Stock Market Short Squeezes to Another All Time High - The China Syndrome - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold, Silver, Crude and S&P Ending Wedge Patterns - DeviantInvestor
10.Is the Gold And Silver Golden Rule Broken? - Michael_Noonan
Last 5 days
TrueShopping.co.uk Real Customer Experience Review - Online Shopping Lessons - 26th Nov 14
Is There A New Global Consensus About Cheating Investors To Reboot Employment? - 26th Nov 14
EUR/USD – Currency Bulls Don’t Give Up - 26th Nov 14
Swiss Gold Referendum A Golden Opportunity for Switzerland - 25th Nov 14
Silver: What COT Analysis Tells Us - 25th Nov 14
Stock Market Big, Bold and Ugly - 25th Nov 14
U.S. Dollar Near Top? Gold and Silver Trading, Platinum Breakout Invalidation - 25th Nov 14
Buy Fear - Easily Pick Up Profits on Stock Market Dips - 25th Nov 14
The Islamic State Reshapes the Middle East - 25th Nov 14
Gold Price Forecast 2015 - 25th Nov 14
The Swiss Referendum On Gold: What’s Missing From The Debate - 25th Nov 14
Clash of Generations - Why Millennials Still Live at Home; Not Jobs, Student Debt, or Housing - 25th Nov 14
Stock Market Reminiscent of Pompeii - 25th Nov 14
Once Upon A Time There Were Philosopher Kings - 24th Nov 14
The 2014 Crude Oil Price Crash Explained - 24th Nov 14
China Stock Investing - Follow the Money! - 24th Nov 14
122 Tonnes of Gold Secretly Repatriated to Netherlands - 24th Nov 14
What Causes the U.S. Dollar to Move? - 24th Nov 14
Stock Market Indexes New Highs - Will Uptrend Extend Even Further? - 24th Nov 14
All Hail the King U.S. Dollar - Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 14
Where Is China Economy On The Map Exactly? - 24th Nov 14
Most of The World Economies Panic - Is The US Next? - 24th Nov 14
Stock Market Exhaustion Gap? - 24th Nov 14
Gold Golden Gains Come After The Pain - 24th Nov 14
Crude Oil and Stock Market Setting The Stage For The Next Recession - 23rd Nov 14
This Publicly-Owned Bank Is Outperforming Wall Street - 23rd Nov 14
Who’s Ready For $30 Crude Oil Price? - 23rd Nov 14
Strategic, Methodological and Developmental Importance of Knowledge Consumption - 23rd Nov 14
Manipulated Stock Market Short Squeezes to Another All Time High - The China Syndrome - 23rd Nov 14
Gold Price 2015 - 22nd Nov 14
Stock Market Medium Term Top? - 22nd Nov 14
Is the Gold And Silver Golden Rule Broken? - 22nd Nov 14
Malaysia's Subsidy and Budget Deficit Conundrum - 22nd Nov 14
Investors Hated Gold at Precisely the Wrong Time: What About Now? - 22nd Nov 14
Gold and GLD ETF Selloff - 22nd Nov 14
Currency Wars, the Ruble and Keynes - 21st Nov 14
Stock Market Investor Sentiment in The Balance - 21st Nov 14
Two Biotech Stocks Set to Double on One Powerful Catalyst - 21st Nov 14
Swiss Gold Poll Likely Tighter Than Polls Suggest - 21st Nov 14
Gold's Volatility and Other Things to Watch - 21st Nov 14
Australia Stock Market and AUD Dollar Analysis (ASX200 and AUDUSD) - 21st Nov 14
New Algae Research May Have Uncovered an “Energy Forest” Under the Sea - 21st Nov 14
The Cultural and Political Consequences of Fiat Money - 20th Nov 14
United States Social Crisis - No One Told You When to Run, You Missed the Starting Gun! - 20th Nov 14
Euro-Zone Tooth Fairy Economics, Spain Needs to leave the Euro - 20th Nov 14
Ebola Threat Remains a Risk - New Deaths in Nebraska and New York - 20th Nov 14
Stock Market and the Jaws of Life or Death? - 20th Nov 14
Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen - 20th Nov 14
Making Money While The World Burns - 20th Nov 14
Why This "Quiet Zone" Is Now Tech Stocks Biggest Profit Sector - 20th Nov 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Report 2015

Comex Gold Shock and Awe

Commodities / Gold & Silver Dec 02, 2008 - 08:57 AM GMT

By: Rob_Kirby

Commodities Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis past Friday, Nov. 28, 2008, was first notice day for delivery of the December COMEX [a division of NYMEX] gold and silver futures contracts which trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The chart appended below shows that on Friday, 8,600 gold futures contracts @ 100 ounces per contract [and 3,040 silver futures contracts @ 5,000 ounces per contract] were delivered. To try to give some perspective to these numbers the previous delivery month for gold futures was October, 2008 when there were 11,554 deliveries for the entire month – a “big” number by historical standards.


It is important for casual market observers to understand that normally, investors who are speculating on the price of gold DO NOT take delivery of the underlying commodity. Instead, whether they are “long” or “short” the future, they usually “roll” their positions into the next contract month as the current or “spot” month approaches its delivery cycle, which begins with first notice day [Friday was the 1st notice day for delivery of the Dec. Gold and Silver Futures Contracts].

So, looking at the COMEX gold table appended below , readers can see that the Dec. contract was still registering Open Interest of 16,053 contracts as of the close of business on Friday. One can also see that “the bulk” of trading has migrated [rolled] into the next delivery month for gold futures – which is Feb., 2009 with 158,895 contracts of Open Interest .

The remaining contracts “open” in December, 2008 must either be “rolled,” covered or delivered before Dec. 31, 2008 – as per the contract termination contract termination schedule .

When deliveries of precious metal occur at COMEX, there is change in beneficial ownership of warehouse receipts representing the underlying physical metal stored in COMEX depositories :

In this regard, we can say that “elevated” deliveries – instead of market participants simply speculating on price change by “rolling” contracts - are consistent with robust or growing demand for the underlying commodity.

We know that global investment demand has, in fact, been robust and growing – because the World Gold Council has told us so :

Demand for gold at an all-time high

Demand for gold reached a record high in the third quarter as investors sought refuge from the financial crisis and volatile stock markets, according to the Wrld Gold Council.

The WGC said demand for gold reached an all-time quarterly record of $32bn between July and September as investors around the world sought refuge from the global financial meltdown. This was 45pc higher than the previous record in the second quarter of 2008.

Demand for gold via exchange traded funds (ETFs) and bars and coins was the biggest contributor to overall demand during the quarter.

The figures show investment demand from private investors rose by 121pc to 232 tonnes in the third quarter, with strong bar and coin buying reported in Swiss, German and US markets. The quarter also witnessed widespread reports of gold shortages among bullion dealers across the globe, as investors searched for a haven…

Why The Rush to Gold?

The reason that investors are flocking to gold the world over is highly understandable given that banks are failing all over the world and the U.S. Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury are printing MASSIVE amounts of money to “bail out” many of those who remain in business. We see this empirically demonstrated by monetary aggregate data supplied by the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

While we see signs of “big money” moving into gold through machinations occuring with respect to “deliveries” at COMEX, there are other ‘tell tale' signs that demand for physical metal is in fact SOARING . This is reflected by the recent decoupling of the price of COMEX gold futures and real costs one must incur to obtain physical ounces in coin or bar form. The premiums being paid for physical ounces have decoupled to the point where leading gold web sites now routinely list current ebay pricing for gold bars and coins to achieve “accurate” real world pricing for physical metal.

Why Are People Using Ebay For Pricing Gold?

The reason that investors are turning to alternate reference sources for pricing physical precious metal is that the COMEX futures derived prices for metal are INCONSISTENT with the empirical robust demand story outlined above. In short, the COMEX pricing model appears to be FRAUDULENT, when despite overwhelming demand for the commodity we routinely and increasingly see “ BUYERS STRIKES ” in the futures markets like the one we experienced just this morning in gold and particularly in silver.

These counter-intuitive, fundamental-defying price movements are the basis for claims of market rigging on the part of the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve.

These shock and awe campaigns being waged against precious metals on the part of officialdom are intended to instill faith in fiat currencies which has been naturally waning in recent weeks and months in the face of unprecedented money creation being availed to officialdom's crony capitalist friends on Wall Street.

This is why everyone needs to get physical now!

The value of physical precious metal is not the same as prices being falsely derived at COMEX.

By Rob Kirby
http://www.kirbyanalytics.com/

Rob Kirby is the editor of the Kirby Analytics Bi-weekly Online Newsletter, which provides proprietry Macroeconomic Research. Subscribers to Kirbyanalytics.com are benefiting from paid in-depth research reports, analysis and commentary on rapidly unfolding economic developments as well as recommendations on courses of action to profit from chaos. Subscribe here .

Copyright © 2008 Rob Kirby - All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Rob Kirby Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014