Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Implications for Stock Market - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Odds of Winning Walkers Crisps Spell & Go olidays K, C and D Letters - Sami_Walayat
3.Massive Silver Price Rally During The Coming US Dollar Collapse - Hubert_Moolman
4.Pope Francis Calls For Worldwide Communist Government - Jeff_Berwick
5.EU Referendum Opinion Polls Neck and Neck Despite Operation Fear, Support BrExit Campaign - Nadeem_Walayat
6.David Morgan: There Will Soon Be a Run to Gold Like You've Never Seen Before - Mike Gleason
7.British Pound Soars on BrExit Hopes Despite Remain Establishment Fear Mongering - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold Price Possible $200 Rally - Bob_Loukas
9.The Federal Reserve is Not Going To Raise Interest Rates and Destroy Gold - Michael_Swanson
10.Silver Miners’ Q1’ 2016 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
Free Silver
Last 7 days
David Cameron Questioned on Out of Control Immigration at TEN TIMES Conservative Election Pledges - 30th May 16
Bitcoin Price Skyrockets And Is Now Up More Than 100% This Jubilee Year - 30th May 16
This Is Not The America My Parents Immigrated To In 1957 - 30th May 16
“Debt, Not The Economy, Reaches Escape Velocity” With Graham Mehl - 29th May 16
EU Referendum, Black Vote LEAVE or REMAIN? Which is Worse for Racism for Britain's Ethnic Minorities? - 29th May 16
Billionaire Gross: Jubilee Debt Relief as Prelude to New Global Economic Order - 29th May 16
Wargaming North Korea - Assessing the Threat - 29th May 16
EU REMAIN Population Forecasts - England 4.1 million Explosion, London Migration Crisis - 28th May 16
A Guide to the Trump-Sanders Debate - 28th May 16
Gold And Silver – At Significant Support. New “Story” Developing - 28th May 16
The Next Systemic Lehman Event - New Scheiss Dollar & Gold Trade Standard - 27th May 16
Energy and Debt Crisis Point to Much Higher Silver, Metals Prices - 27th May 16
Gold Junior Stocks Q1 2016 Fundamentals - 27th May 16
These Crisis Markets Are Primed to Deliver Big Gains, Platinum Never Cheaper! - 27th May 16
Operation Black Vote BrExit Warning for the Wrong EU Referendum - 27th May 16
UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Extreme, Catastrophic ONS Migration Stats Ahead of EU Referendum - 27th May 16
Many of the World’s Best Investors Made Their Fortunes This Way…And You Can Too - 27th May 16
The Ugly Truth About Stock Market Manipulation and Gold Prices - 27th May 16
Gold Price Looking Vulnerable While Gold Stocks Correct - 27th May 16
The 5 Fatal Flaws of Trading - 27th May 16
The Next Big Crash Of The U.S. Economy Is Coming, Here’s Why - 27th May 16
A New Golden Bull or Has the Market Gone Too Far Too Fast? - 27th May 16
It Feels Like Inflation - 26th May 16
Negative Interest Rates Set to Propel the Dow Jones to the Stratosphere? - 26th May 16
S&P Significant Low has Occurred – Not Likely! - 26th May 16
Statistics for Funeral Planning in UK Grave - 26th May 16
Think Beyond Oil And Gold: Interview With Mike 'Mish' Shedlock - 26th May 16
Hard Times and False Mainstream Media Narratives - 26th May 16
Will The Swiss Guarantee 75,000 CHF For Every Family? - 26th May 16
Is There A Stocks Bear Market in Progress? - 26th May 16
Billionaires Are Wrong on Gold - 26th May 16
How NOT to Invest in the Gold Market - 26th May 16
The Black Swan Spotter...Which Saw the Oil-Crash coming; now says the “Invisible Hand” will push Brent to $85 by Christmas - 26th May 16
U.S. Household Debt Still Below 2008 Peak - 25th May 16
Brexit: Wrong Discussion, Wrong People, Wrong Arguments - 25th May 16
SPX is at Strong Resistance - 25th May 16
US Dollar, Back From the Grave? - 25th May 16
Gold : Just the Facts Ma’am - 25th May 16
The Worst Urban Crisis in History Could be Upon Us - 24th May 16
Death Crosses Across The Board Are IRREFUTABLE Stock Market Sell Signals - 24th May 16
Bitcoin Trading Alert: Bitcoin Price Stays below $450 - 24th May 16
Stock Market Crash Death Cross Doom Prevails - 23rd May 16
Did AMAT Chirp? Implications for the Economy and Gold - 23rd May 16
Stocks Extended Their Rebound On Friday - Will They Continue Higher? - 23rd May 16
UK Treasury Propaganda Warns of 3.6% Brexit Recession, the £64 Billion Question? - 23rd May 16
Stock Market Support Breached, But Not Broken! - 23rd May 16
George Osborne Warns of 18% Cheaper House Prices - BrExit for First Time Buyers - 22nd May 16
Gold Bull-Phase I Continues to Confound (The Trek to “Known Values”) - 22nd May 16 r
Avoiding a War in Space - 22nd May 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

End of the Financial Markets Boom – Dow Jones Headed for 3000

Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets Apr 19, 2007 - 11:23 PM GMT

By: Paul_Lamont

Stock-Markets

“In a bull market and particularly in booms the public at first makes money which it later loses simply by overstaying the bull market… The big money in booms is always made first by the public-on paper. And it remains on paper. ” – Edwin Lef èvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator . 1923.

To the investment community the sell-off in February came as a complete surprise. Readers of our report understand what is happening. In our article on October 17 th of last year, titled Credit Extreme Emotion ;

“As a result, financial institutions will come under severe strains as the credit bubble bursts. The rise of mortgage defaults will signal the beginning of this deflationary spiral.  Unfortunately, interest rate markets are setting up homeowners for this exact scenario.


Also in 7 Reasons To Sell ,

“In addition, all 14 “Strategists” at the largest Wall Street Firms are calling for a higher market in 2007. The last time this bullish consensus occurred was at the start of 2001. The DJIA subsequently fell ~40% over the next 2 years.”

Promoters of the boom (Wall Street Firms) cannot be relied upon for independent investment advice. They profit by selling investments that are in demand. When demand is high for any investment, so is price and therefore these are not wise investments.

The Chart Wall Street Doesn't Want You to See

The chart above from Steven Williams at CyclePro.com shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation since 1800. As you can see, when the effects of inflation have been extracted, the DJIA is much more cyclical than Wall Street promoters would care to admit. In optimistic peaks of 1834, 1906, 1929, and 1966 the DJIA subsequently moved to the bottom of the long term trend channel. These bear markets were either inflationary, such as the 1966-1982 bear market or deflationary such as in 1929-1932. We have also noticed that inflationary/deflationary crashes tend to alternate. We suppose this is because Mr. Market likes to fool even the bears. Today we are again at the top of the trend channel. How will we fall? Most bears remember and fear the stagflation of the 1970s. However with debt levels currently high, inflation cannot be maintained for an extended length of time. Debtors would merely file for bankruptcy or foreclosure (as they have begun recently). Instead a deflationary spiral similar to 1929-1933 or 1834-1842 is likely. It appears the rule of alternation will continue.

This chart also shows possible future levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. According to the trend lines followed since 1800, the DJIA could reasonably fall to 3000 by 2012. This is our target.

What's Happening Now?

Astute chart watchers have recognized that markets follow elliptical curves. Currently, we are finishing up an ellipse that started in October of 2005. Notice the chart of the DJIA below, price is riding up the side of the ellipse. This is similar to price action in late 2003. (Another example of the elliptical curve is the 5yr chart of the Shanghai Index.) When price snaps out of this ellipse, the DJIA will be pursuing a new direction: down or sideways. Of course, readers know our bias is down. We believe the decline will be swifter than February's sell off.

Institutions on a Bubble

Bank failures in the Great Depression were caused by savings lost in the stock market bubble. Today our banks are prevented from investing in the stock market, instead restricted to a “safer” asset class: real estate. To see the illiquid bubble that some of our financial institutions are now dependent on, see the chart below of U.S. home prices adjusted for inflation back to 1890.

Speculativebubble.com has created a rollercoaster video of this chart, which we recommend because it reflects the emotional aspect of markets. Financial institutions that are based on the real estate market will face serious problems as the boom unwinds. Mortgage lenders are already going bust. As home prices continue to fall, aided by regulatory and market restrictions on credit, baby boomers will put investment properties, in which they hold little equity, on the auction block. Alt-A mortgages which fueled these properties will fall in value. Current ‘thinking' is that financial institutions have passed on much of the mortgage risk to hedge funds. However when hedge funds fail, ‘prime brokers' historically have been forced to accept the hedge fund's losing positions. Illiquid arrangements (for instance credit derivatives) will then be the responsibility of the prime brokers. They will be forced to sell at any price as they try to prevent losses on their own books. As the editor of The Commercial and Financial Chronicle in November of 1929 reported on the Great Crash, ‘the crowd didn't sell, they got sold out.' The trading desks of the Wall Street Firms will cash out as the panic develops, the lady in Omaha will be stuck on the phone with a busy signal.

The LTA Treasury Bill Account

To avoid this, investors should be moving now to financially healthy institutions and buying U.S. Treasury Bills. Access to funds will be critical when it is time to buy. Waiting on funds from financial institutions in bankruptcy receivership, cash redemptions of fund companies, or for FDIC payouts will be real headaches in a credit crunch. Instead a Treasury bill, a direct loan to the U.S. Federal Government, is available in the most extreme circumstances. According to the FDIC ;

“ Customers who hold Treasury securities purchased through a bank that later fails can request a document from the acquiring bank (or from the FDIC if there is no acquirer) showing proof of ownership and redeem the security at the nearest Federal Reserve Bank. Or, customers can wait for the security to reach its maturity date and receive a check from the acquiring institution, which may automatically become the new custodian of the failed bank's T-bill customer list (or from the FDIC acting as receiver for the failed bank when there is no acquirer).”

***Starting in July, our free monthly investment analysis report will require a subscription fee of $40 a month for non-clients. Clients with assets under management will receive reports free of charge. Until July, current free readers may ‘reserve their seat' here for half price ($20 a month). A yearly PayPal billing notice will arrive in an email in late June.***

By Paul Lamont
www.LTAdvisors.net

At Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc. we specialize in the management of risk and preservation of wealth. Visit our Current Strategy section for information on our asset allocation recommendations or Contact Us if you would also like to be notified when our investment analysis reports are published.

Copyright ©2007 Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc. Paul Lamont is President of Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the State of Alabama. Persons in states outside of Alabama should be aware that we are relying on de minimis contact rules within their respective home state. For more information about our firm visit www.LTAdvisors.net , or to receive a copy of our disclosure form ADV, please email us at advrequest@ltadvisors.net, or call (256) 850-4161.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Will
25 Feb 09, 22:37
S&P

Hello,

Just wondering if there is a CyclePro Analysis of the broader market, the S&P? The average of its movement,based on of course 500 companies, should be the bell weather in analyzing patterns. This will truly indicate the proximity of the depths of we are all facing.

Thanks, Will


Carlos
01 Feb 11, 12:55
Wrong chart

The chart of the Dow is wrong. I agree that it may come down again and even pierce below the 6700- minimum, but in '29 it wasn't certainly topping around 1000. I'm curious about the data but it'd be nice if it was more accurate.

Carlos Arévalo from México.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife