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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 5th January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 05, 2009 - 08:57 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower in quiet overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1321.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1206.07 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.


The March NASDAQ 100 was down 0.50 pts. at 1252.50 as of 5:58 AM CST. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1268.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1321.75. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1206.07. Second support is last week's low crossing at 1156.25. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 947.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 885.45 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 933.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 947.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 885.45. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 853.00. The March S&P 500 Index was down 0.10 pts. at 925.30 as of 6:02 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 139-16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.20. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 139-16. First support is the overnight low crossing at 134-25. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 134-04.

ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends last week's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.58. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 52.95 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 36.94 would temper the near-term gains. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 48.68. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 52.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.58. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 41.13.

February heating oil was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.11. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 162.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 152.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 162.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.11. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.50.

February unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally above resistance marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.79. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 121.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 90.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 115.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.79. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 90.00.

February Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 5.245 then psychological support crossing at 5.000 are February's next downside targets. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.180 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 6.088. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.180. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 5.477. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.245.

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CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was higher overnight and trading above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.90. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.90 would confirm that a short-
term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains during the first half of January. If March renews this winter's decline, the 75% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 76.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 83.64. Second resistance is broken support crossing at 85.34. First support is the overnight low crossing at 82.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 80.43.

The March Euro was lower overnight and trading below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.717. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.717 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness during the first half of January. If March renews this winter's rally, the 75% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at 148.780 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 139.169. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 143.340. First support is the overnight low crossing at 135.910. Second support is broken resistance crossing at 132.350.

The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight due to light short covering but remains below broken support crossing at 1.4500. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.4004 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4817 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4614. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4817. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1.4329. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.4004.

The March Swiss Franc was sharply lower overnight due to profit taking as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8962 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 87% retracement level of the March-November decline crossing at .9701 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9281. Second resistance is last week's high crossing at .9662. First support is the overnight low crossing at .9051. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8962.

The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates above support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.48. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the May- December decline crossing at 86.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.55. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 86.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.48. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 80.85.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline below key support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at .11016. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the overnight decline, the 38% retracement level of the August-December rally crossing at .10605 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .11026 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11016. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11026. First support is the overnight low crossing at .10718. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-December rally crossing at .10605.

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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidated some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 838.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends this winter's rally, October's high crossing at 938.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 892.00. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 938.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at 859.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 838.50.

March silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.850. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.430 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.624 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 11.770. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.430. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.850. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.624.

March copper was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.36. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 154.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.63 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 149.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.36. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.63.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 11.400 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. If March renews Monday's decline, December's low crossing at 10.215 is the next downside target.

March cocoa closed sharply lower on Friday due to profit taking but remains above broken resistance marked by this summer's downtrend line. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, the September 29th gap crossing at 27.20 is the next upside target.

March sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.07 are needed to renew this month's rally. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.26 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March renews last week's decline, November's low crossing at 10.51 is the next downside target.

March cotton closed slightly lower on Friday due to profit taking but remains above broken resistance marked by November's high crossing at 48.00. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This week's breakout above resistance crossing at 48.00 opens the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 51.30 later this winter. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.25 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 4.33 1/2 then November's high crossing at 4.38 1/2 are the next upside targets. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 4.21. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 4.33. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.86. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/4.

March wheat was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the October 6th gap crossing at 6.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.54 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 6.33 1/2.

Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the October 6th gap crossing at 6.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.70 1/4 would temper the friendly outlook in the market.

March Minneapolis wheat closed up a 1/2-cent at 6.55 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally higher on Friday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.13 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends December's rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.74, which coincides with the 25% retracement level of the June-December decline crossing at 6.77 are the next upside targets.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight as it extended last month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 9.89, then the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 9.97 3/4 are needed the next upside targets. From a broad perspective, March soybeans appear to be doing nothing more than testing the upper boundary of a three-month old trading range. Closes above the October 6th gap crossing at 10.21 1/4 would go a long way in confirming an upside breakout of this extended trading range. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.75 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.

March soybean meal was lower overnight due to profit taking as they consolidate some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.70 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 311.10 is the next upside target.

March soybean oil was higher overnight as it extended last week's rally. Spillover strength from the energy complex helped to lift soybean oil higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 36.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 31.69 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed up $2.97 at $63.85.

February hogs gapped up and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.06 on Friday confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 65.40 then November's high crossing at 67.10 are the next upside targets. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.87. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 65.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.06. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.97.

February bellies closed up $2.07 at $89.45.

February bellies closed higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 88.64 signaling an end to the setback off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are still neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 79.30 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 91.80 are needed to needed to renew the late-December rally.

February cattle closed up $1.05 at 87.10.

February cattle gapped up and closed higher on Friday extending the rebound off Wednesday's low. Profit taking tempered early gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends December's rally, November's high crossing at 95.60 is the next upside target.

March feeder cattle closed up $1.85 at $95.52.

March Feeder cattle gapped up and closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends December's rally, November's high crossing at 101.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

By INO.com

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