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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 30th January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 30, 2009 - 08:57 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1256.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1186.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.


First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1244.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1256.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1206.07. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1186.95. The March NASDAQ 100 was down 1.75 pts. at 1204.25 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 863.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 788.40 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 875.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 915.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 836.73. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 797.00. The March S&P 500 Index was down 0.20 pts. at 842.60 as of 5:59 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend this month's decline and are challenging support marked by the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 126-12. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 122-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 132-15 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130-18. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132-15. First support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 126-12. Second support is Thursday's low crossing at 126-09.

ENERGY MARKETS
March crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.98. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 38.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 48.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the early-January high crossing at 54.74 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.98. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.10. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 40.18. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 39.11.

March heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rally off Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 154.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews last week's decline, December's low crossing at 123.96 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 167.89. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 130.39. Second support is December's low crossing at 123.96.

March unleaded gas was higher overnight and is poised to test the upper boundary of this month's trading range, which crosses at 127.84. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 127.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 106.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.84. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 131.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.09. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 111.50.

March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.066 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline, monthly support crossing at 4.160 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.649. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.066. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.355. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.160.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rally off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 88.37 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 84.02 are needed to confirm that the corrective rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.35. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 87.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.92.

The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline below the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.175. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 126.441 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 133.210 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.171. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.264. First support is the overnight low crossing at 127.980. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 127.550.

The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4100. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4450 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.3245 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.4404. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4450. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4099. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.3492.

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8873 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at .8844. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8873. First support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .8555. Second support is broken resistance marked by the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at 85.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 83.14. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 85.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.67. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 78.30.

The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11085 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .10964 would greatly increase the odds that last week's high marked a double top with December's high. If March renews this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .11500 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at .11496. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at .11500. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at .11019. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10964.

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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was higher overnight and posted a new high for the month as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally, October's high crossing at 938.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 863.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 928.20. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 938.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 883.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing near 863.20.

March silver was higher overnight as it extends the recent upside breakout of trading range resistance. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 13.376 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.400 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 12.620. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 13.376. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.792. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.400.

March copper was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews last week's decline, December's low crossing at 125.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 162.25 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 163.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 173.35. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 142.10. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 137.30.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.585 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.622 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cocoa closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above broken resistance marked by December's high crossing at 27.18. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 29.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.82 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March sugar closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13.14 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cotton closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends this month's rally, the 25% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 54.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.85 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the mid-January low crossing at 3.58 3/4 then the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 are the next downside targets. Closes above this week's high crossing at 4.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.85 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.90 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.72 1/2. Second support is the mid-January low crossing at 3.58 3/4.

March wheat was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 6.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.77 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March renews last week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.38 is the next downside target.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 18-cents at 6.08.

Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off last week's low, December's high crossing at 6.70 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at 5.79 1/2 would temper the friendly outlook in the market.

March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of its recent gains but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.55 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 6.85 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes above this resistance level are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.55 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 6.24 1/2 would confirm that a double top with the early-January high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness into early-February.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.93. The mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 9.57 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.96 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 10.40 are needed to renew the rally off December's low.

March soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 313.50. The mid-range close overnight set the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 292.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 326.00 are needed to renew the rally off December's low.

March soybean oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 32.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 35.00 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted.

LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed down $0.10 at $61.25.

April hogs closed lower on Thursday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If April extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 60.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.65. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 63.88. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 60.60. Second support is weekly support crossing at 60.08.

February bellies closed up $1.90 at $80.40.

February bellies closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but neutral hinting that a double bottom with December's low might have been posted. Closes below December's low crossing at 79.30 could prove to be a bear trap due to the oversold condition of the market. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
April cattle closed down $0.10 at 84.32.

April cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 82.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March feeder cattle closed up $0.05 at $90.62.

March Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, gap support crossing at 87.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 93.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

By INO.com

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