Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK General Election 2017 Seats Final Forecast, Labour, Conservative Lib-Dem, SNP - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK General Election 2017 Forecast: Conservative 358, Labour 212 Seats - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Theresa May to Resign, Fatal Error Was to Believe Worthless Opinion Polls! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.UK House Prices Forecast General Election 2017 Conservative Seats Result - Nadeem_Walayat
6.The Stock Market Crash of 2017 That Never Was But Could it Still Come to Pass? - Sol_Palha
7.[TRADE ALERT] Write This Gold Stock Ticker Down Now - WallStreetNation
8.UK General Election Results Map 2017 vs 2015 vs Opinion Polls - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Orphaned Poisoned Waters,Severe Chronic Water Shortage Imminent - Richard_Mills
10.How The Smart Money Is Playing The Lithium Boom - OilPrice_Com
Last 7 days
Best Cash ISA for Soaring Inflation, Kent Reliance Illustrates the Great ISA Rip Off - 24th Jun 17
Gold Summer Doldrums - 23rd Jun 17
Hedgers Net Short the Euro, US Market Rotates; 2 Horsemen Set to Ride? - 23rd Jun 17
Nether Edge By Election Result: Labour Win Sheffield City Council Seat by 132 Votes - 23rd Jun 17
Grenfell Fire: 600 of 4000 Tower Blocks Ticking Time Bomb Death Traps! - 22nd Jun 17
Car Sales About To Go Over The Cliff - 22nd Jun 17
LOG 0.786 support in CRUDE OIL and COCOA - 22nd Jun 17
More Stock Market Fluctuations Along New Record Highs - 22nd Jun 17
Understanding true money, Pound Sterling must make another historic low, Euro and Gold outlook! - 22nd Jun 17
Green Party Could Control Sheffield City Council Balance of Power Local Election 2018 - 22nd Jun 17
Ratio Combo Charts : Hidden Clues to the Gold Market Puzzle - 22nd Jun 17
Steem Hard Forks & Now People Are Making Even More Money On Blockchain Steemit - 22nd Jun 17
4 Steps for Comparing Binary Options Providers - 22nd Jun 17
Nether Edge & Sharrow By-Election, Will Labour Lose Safe Council Seat, Sheffield? - 21st Jun 17
Stock Market SPX Making New Lows - 21st Jun 17
Your Future Wealth Depends on what You Decide to Keep and Invest in Now - 21st Jun 17
Either Bitcoin Will Fail OR Bitcoin Is A Government Invention Meant To Enslave... - 21st Jun 17
Strength in Gold and Silver Mining Stocks and Its Implications - 21st Jun 17
Inflation is No Longer in Stealth Mode - 21st Jun 17
CRUDE OIL UPDATE- “0.30 risk is cheap for changing implication!” - 20th Jun 17
Crude Oil Verifies Price Breakdown – Or Is It Something More? - 20th Jun 17
Trump Backs ISIS As He Pushes US Onto Brink of World War III With Russia - 20th Jun 17
Most Popular Auto Trading Tools for trading with Stock Markets - 20th Jun 17
GDXJ Gold Stocks Massacre: The Aftermath - 20th Jun 17
Why Walkers Crisps Pay Packet Promotion is RUBBISH! - 20th Jun 17
7 Signs You Should Add Gold To Your Portfolio Now - 19th Jun 17
US Bonds and Related Market Indicators - 19th Jun 17
Wireless Wars: The Billion Dollar Tech Boom No One Is Talking About - 19th Jun 17
Amey Playing Cat and Mouse Game with Sheffield Residents and Tree Campaigners - 19th Jun 17
Positive Stock Market Expectations, But Will Uptrend Continue? - 19th Jun 17
Gold Proprietary Cycle Indicator Remains Down - 19th Jun 17
Stock Market Higher Highs Still Likely - 18th Jun 17
The US Government Clamps Down on Ability of Americans To Purchase Bitcoin - 18th Jun 17
NDX/NAZ Continue downward pressure on the US Stock Market - 18th Jun 17
Return of the Gold Bear? - 18th Jun 17
Are Sheffield's High Rise Tower Blocks Safe? Grenfell Cladding Fire Disaster! - 18th Jun 17
Globalist Takeover Of The Internet Moves Into Overdrive - 17th Jun 17
Crazy Charging Stocks Bull Market Random Thoughts - 17th Jun 17
Reflation, Deflation and Gold - 17th Jun 17
Here’s The Case For An Upside Risk In The Global Economy - 17th Jun 17
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 17
Drones Upending Business Models and Reshaping Industry Landscapes - 16th Jun 17
Grenfell Tower Cladding Fire Disaster, 4,000 Ticking Time Bombs, Sheffield Council Flats Panic! - 16th Jun 17
Heating Oil Bottom Is In.(probably) - 16th Jun 17
Here’s the Investing Reason Active Funds Can’t Beat Passive Funds—and It Worries Me a Lot - 16th Jun 17
Is There Gold “Hype” and is Gold an Emotional Trade? - 16th Jun 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The MRI 3D Report

Soaring Unemployment Means No U.S. Housing Market Bottom

Housing-Market / US Housing Feb 01, 2009 - 12:07 PM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Housing-Market Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCalifornia Association of Realtors C.A.R. Data

The following chart is from my friend "TC" who has been monitoring California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) and DQNews data. C.A.R. data contains resale single family residences and new homes. DQNews data contains resale single family residences and new homes.




Median nominal prices in CA are now down 53% according to CAR and 48% according to DQNews - and those declines are in 19-20 months!

Case-Shiller is a more accurate way of looking at home prices than median prices. Case-Shiller data follows.

Case Shiller January 2009 Release

Inquiring minds are considering the Case Shiller Home Price Release for January 2009.

Home Price Declines Continue as the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices Set New Record Annual Declines.

New York, January 27, 2009 – Data through November 2008, released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 11 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline, and 14 reporting declines in excess of 10% versus November 2007.



The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. Following the lead of the 11 metro areas described above, the 10-City Composite matched last month's record decline of 19.1% and the 20-City Composites set a new record, down 18.2%.

“The freefall in residential real estate continued through November 2008,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. “Since August 2006, the 10-City and 20-City Composites have declined every month – a total of 28 consecutive months.



The chart above shows the index levels for the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. It is another illustration of the magnitude of the decline in home prices over the past two years.

Please see the original article for more commentary and tables on the data.

Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak

The following charts were produced by my friend "TC" who has been monitoring Case-Shiller Data. Although individual cities topped at varying times, the top-10 and top-20 city composites peaked in a June-July 2006 timeframe.

Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak Current Data



Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak Futures Data


"TC" writes:
The Nov 2008 Case-Shiller data continues to accelerate to the downside. The 10 and 20 city index show declines from their peak in excess of 25% and the bubble cities (along with Detroit) all have declines in excess of 30% with Phoenix having the largest percentage drop of -43% and San Francisco having the largest price drop at $351,000+.

It is important for readers to know that Case-Shiller uses a Repeated Sales Methodology (RSM) which provides the most accurate housing data available. Additionally, as requested I've added two columns titled "Price Level" which show both the last time prices were at the current level and what price level prices are projected to decline to based upon the CME Futures market.

The most extreme bubble city decline is once again San Francisco which is at prices last seen in May 2002. However, the most extreme overall city is Detroit which has now reverted to prices last seen in Aug 1997.

This additional data is even more interesting when you look at the projected trough months. For example, Los Angeles is expected to trough in Nov 2010 at prices last seen in Jan 2003. However, those Jan 2003 prices are an amazing 44% higher than LA prices were in Jan 2000. Consequently, we can certainly go a lot lower and it appears that even the Futures market may be too optimistic about when this market bottoms.

Lastly, the sheer number of negative quarters in every city continues to amaze as 14 of the 20 cities have now experienced 9 or more consecutive quarters of prices declines!

Thanks "TC"

Those wanting to see still more graphs of housing and other data should take a peek at another fine post by Calculated Risk called January Economic Summary in Graphs .

My take is unemployment is going to soar in 2009 along with foreclosures, credit card writeoffs, and bankruptcies. Those will add to the inventory problems. Thus it is extremely unlikely that housing bottoms anytime soon.

And as much as housing prices have declined, take another look at the second chart in the news release above. Imagine where prices will be if they fall back to 2003 levels or worse yet 2001 levels. Moreover, why shouldn't prices fall back that far? Finally, how many are prepared for it, if indeed that were that to happen?

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2009 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved

Mike Shedlock Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife