Category: Quantitative EasingThe analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
In last week's Outside the Box, which included a paper from the San Francisco Federal Reserve on the effectiveness of quantitative easing, I wrote, "What [authors] Cúrdia and Ferrero are really saying is that the latest round of QE, massive as it has been, has not had all that much effect on the economy, and that other factors should be taken into account. I'm sure this thesis is somewhat controversial, and I look forward to seeing what QE proponents like David Zervos over at Jefferies have to say about it."Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 22, 2013
On Wednesday the Fed released the minutes from its July 30-31 policy meeting. Minutes from the meeting showed that most members of the FOMC agreed that a reduction of the stimulus was not yet appropriate. Only a few thought it was time to “slow somewhat” the pace of the stimulus policy.
Investors continue to fear that the Fed will start to slow its $85 billion monthly asset purchases, with most predicting September as the beginning of the end of the aggressive quantitative easing (QE) program. This fear was manifested beginning in June as foreign investors sold U.S. Treasuries to the tune of $489 billion in that month alone. The annualized rate of Treasury notes and bonds sold over the last three months was $271 billion. In more recent days, Asian currencies have declined as investors fear tighter Fed policy will starve emerging markets of investment funds.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
The market is obsessed with “tapering.” The assumption is that all the “juice” in the economy is somehow the product of the Federal Reserve's actions. The headline on the front page of the Wall Street Journal today reads “Fear of Fed Retreat Roils India.” I suppose one has to come up with some kind of reason to explain the convergence of emerging equity markets and those of the US. My friend Dan Greenhaus over at BTIG sent out this ugly graph (if you are an emerging-market investor) this morning:Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
While the Fed’s taper talk has been tapered and then un-tapered, the market may now be tapering the Fed rather than vice versa. Let’s assess Act 2 of the taper talk and the implications for the markets, including the dollar and gold.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 19, 2013
The Federal Reserve Bank’s balance sheet looked pretty healthy in May this year. On the asset side of the balance sheet is the large amount of paper that the Fed has bought to supposedly stimulate the economy. This consists mostly of treasury bonds and notes and mortgage-back securities of a value approaching $3 trillion.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 08, 2013
Garrett Baldwin writes: On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans announced that he wouldn't be surprised if the central bank begins to taper its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program in September.
Evans is the third official this week to signal a QE taper. Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, and Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Fed, parroted Evans' sentiment.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 07, 2013
By Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D., Economist
In May 22 testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke issued another of many similar positive interpretations of central bank policy. Yet again, he continued to argue that quantitative easing has decreased long-term interest rates and produced other benefits. He called economic growth "moderate," a term that he has often used without acknowledging that the Fed's forecasts have repeatedly been far above the mark. Within less than two months—or by the time of the July FOMC meeting—the Fed had downgraded the economic growth to "modest," tacitly acknowledging that program of open-ended $85 billion purchases of government and federal agency security purchases had failed to boost economic activity.
Friday, August 02, 2013
George Leong writes: At the Federal Reserve meeting this past Wednesday, Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed the bond buying would continue as economic growth was only modest and jobs remain an issue.
In other words, the Federal Reserve is planning to keep the money-printing press in full operation.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 02, 2013
After the Fed's latest 2-day policy meeting it announced on Wednesday that it would continue its $85 billion per month asset purchase program. The major indices fluctuated from positive to negative throughout the day, as is typical of a Fed meeting day, before closing basically unchanged.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 01, 2013
Gary Gately writes: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ended today (Wednesday) with word that the Fed plans to the stay the course on QE for now, backtracking from earlier hints it might begin tapering this fall.
"For all those looking for clear guidance on when quantitative easing will end, well, you will have to wait a little longer," Joel Naroff, president and chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors Inc., wrote in a research note. "Indeed, there may have been some walking backwards today."Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 01, 2013
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday slightly downgraded its economic outlook but gave no hint about its plans for its $85 billion-a-month asset purchase program. The statement released after a meeting of the Fed’s policy making committee said that the economy was expanding at a “modest” pace, a change from the “moderate” pace seen in June. The Fed also noted that the rise in mortgage rates was a concern. It also said that persistently low inflation was a risk. There was only one dissent, by Kansas City Fed President Esther George.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
By Grant Williams
Who can take tomorrow
Dip it in a dream
Separate the sorrow
And collect up all the cream?
The candyman, the candyman can
The candyman can 'cause he mixes it with love
And makes the world taste good.
And the world tastes good 'cause the candyman thinks it should.
– "The Candyman", Willy Wonka and the Chocolate FactoryRead full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
What to Expect From the Fed FOMC Meeting: Looking for QE Clues / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
Gary Gately writes: Don't expect a definitive answer from this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on when the Fed will begin tapering its massive quantitative easing program.
Instead, the focus will be on the FOMC's statement, which will be scoured for clues about when scaling back QE3 could begin.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 27, 2013
Despite Declining Deficit, Foreigners Aren’t Bailing Us Out, So the Fed Will Keep QE Going / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By Bud Conrad, Chief Economist
The basic imbalance driving our economy is the government deficit, which spun out of control as a result of the Credit Crisis of 2008/9. But the sequester, improving tax base, lower interest rate, and elimination of stimulus spending have caused the big government deficit, while still extreme, to drop to half its previously nosebleed levels.
Monday, July 22, 2013
Ever wonder what Bernanke is saying? Well, it boils down to this: at the same time that Jimmy Carter says the US doesn't have a functioning democracy, Ben Bernanke says the US doesn't have a functioning economy.
Unfortunately, people understand what Carter says, though they may not agree with him, but they do not understand what Bernanke says, and that has nothing to do with agreeing with him or not. Moe likely it has something to do with the illusionary oracle qualities once attributed to his predecessor Alan Greenspan, whenever no-one had a clue what he was saying. In reality, Ben Bernanke will turn out to be the biggest scourge on American society since the same Alan Greenspan, but that's not how he's seen; instead, just like Greenspan, he's idolized. What's wrong with this picture is that Bernanke's words and actions are interpreted in the press exclusively by people who live in the part of society that stands to profit from them, let's call it "the financial world". That they are but a very small part of society easily gets lost in translation.Read full article... Read full article...