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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Gold and Silver 2021

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Pausing Stocks and Gold Fireworks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

The S&P 500 went back to relentless rallying on Friday, yet the selling wave before the close looks to indicate hesitation ahead. Even though VIX is attacking the 16 level, and the put/call ratio ticked higher, the bulls are little disturbed thus far – and they‘re unlikely to get upset. Whatever consolidation comes, would be a sideways one – one to be bought.

That‘s the result of ample liquidity in the system, which is denting the rotations. Yields can go up or down, yet the sectoral adjustments to the downside aren‘t largely there, and that extends beyond the recently discussed financials. It concerns tech specifically, as the sector appears at a turning point – it defended gains:

(…) without too much help from the behemoths, and value stocks surged. …. Retail sales outdoing expectations and unemployment claims dropping sharply – the economic recovery is doing fine, manufacturing expands, and inflation doesn‘t yet bite. We‘re still in the reflationary stage where economic growth is higher than the rate of inflation or its expectations.

Gold loved the TLT upswing and Powell‘s assurances about not selling bonds back into the market in rememberance of eating a humble pie after the Dec 2018 hissy fit in the stock market (isn‘t this the third mandate actually, the cynics might ask). I called for the sharp gains across the precious metals board sending my open position(s) even more into the black.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Precious Metals and Miners Start of New Longer-Term Bullish Trend - P2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This second part of our research article related to the new Bullish price phase in Precious Metals and Miners will continue to explore the potential range and targets for higher price trends.

In the first part of this article, I discussed how precious metals have started moving higher in somewhat of a stealth mode – not really drawing a lot of attention from traders.  While other commodities and market sectors continue to rally, Gold and Silver have recently been setting up a new momentum base over the past few weeks.  If our research is correct, we may soon see a stronger bullish price rally in precious metals which may drive miners 3x to 5x higher as Miners have greater Alpha than precious metals.

Are The Stars Aligning For A Big Market Shift Focusing On Gold & Silver?

Another key factor is that we’ve recently shifted away from an appreciation cycle phase and into a depreciation cycle phase.  This new Depreciation cycle phase suggests the US Dollar may enter a decidedly downward overall trend while the US stock market may continue to move higher with increased volatility and extended price rotation ranges.  Additionally, this new Depreciation cycle phase clearly suggests precious metals will begin an upward price trend that may last well into 2027~2028 or longer.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Are Precious Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Almost in stealth mode, precious metals have begun to bottom and start a new upside price trend while the US stock market focused on the FOMC meeting a few weeks back and current economic data.  Gold, Silver, and many of the Miner ETFs recently started a moderately strong push higher – almost completely behind the scenes of the hype in the markets regarding IPOs and Bitcoin’s new recent highs.

All the Gold traders know that when Gold starts a new leg higher, it could mean inflation fears are being amplified in the global markets and/or fear is starting to creep back into the markets.  After the recent rally in the US major indexes and as we plow through Q1:2021 earnings, it makes sense that some fear and inflation concerns are starting to take precedence over other concerns.  Will the markets just continue to push higher and higher? Or are the market nearing some type of intermediate-term peak after rallying from November 2020? Only time will tell…

The recent move in Gold and Silver prices suggests traders and investors are starting to act more aggressively to hedge against downside market risks.  My research team and I believe these upside trends may confirm an upside breakout trend in Precious Metals and Miners within 2 to 4+ weeks. You may find some of our earlier research articles related to metals, including our April 15th price targets for Gold, Silver, and Platinum, and our research from March 26th where we explore an impending miners breakout rally.

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Commodities

Monday, April 19, 2021

Gold - You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold had a good day yesterday, but as it hits the $1,770 resistance line, it will be anything but easy for the yellow metal. The real test has begun.

And so, it happened. Gold moved right to its target level that seemed to be the max that it could reach, but that didn’t seem to be the most likely outcome. Just because it wasn’t the most likely outcome, doesn’t make it impossible. The “most likely” can happen all the time – after all its only “most likely” not “certain” or “inevitable”.

Gold declined right after its triangle-vertex-based reversal, but it appears that the market participants didn’t want to give up on the bullish tone until gold finally reached its previous lows and highs.

Just like magnets, the strong support and resistance lines draw investors and traders, and it seems that we saw this play out once again.

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Commodities

Monday, April 19, 2021

Will Interest Rates Rally Further Push Gold Price Down? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The recent rally in the bond yields pushed gold prices down, but this trend won’t continue forever, as the Fed will likely be forced to step in.

In March, we saw a continuation of the rally in bond yields that started in February. As the chart below shows, the 10-year real interest rates have soared from -1.06 on February 10 to -0.66 percent on March 23.

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Commodities

Monday, April 19, 2021

Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

The S&P 500 red candle and then some – erased in a day, that‘s what you get with the Fed always having your back. The staircase climb certainly looks like continuing without any real breather. Whatever steep ascent you compare it to (Jun or early Sep 2020), this one is different in that it doesn‘t offer but token corrections. Not that it would be reasonable to expect a steep downswing given the tide of liquidity, but even sideways trading has become rarer than it used to be.

With the VIX still below 17 and the put/call ratio in the middle of its slowly but surely less complacent range, the path of least resistance is higher – the signs are still aligned behind the upswing to go on:

(…) Don‘t pin your hopes too high for a (sharp) correction though. Yes, [on Wednesday] stocks listened to the weakening corporate credit markets, and the daily retreat in long-dated Treasuries inspired some profit taking in tech. Quite some run there as yields stabilized, which has turned XLK from very stretched to the downside of its 50-day moving average, to the upside extreme. Tesla also followed suit but I doubt this is a true reversal of tech fortunes.

Just at yesterday‘s moves – technology surged higher without too much help from the behemoths, and value stocks surged. Even financials ignored the sharp retreat in yields. Yes, that‘s the result of retails sales outdoing expectations and unemployment claims dropping sharply – the economic recovery is doing fine, manufacturing expands, and inflation doesn‘t yet bite. We‘re still in the reflationary stage where economic growth is higher than the rate of inflation or its expectations.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 18, 2021

Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Ignore what central bankers are saying; instead, watch what they are doing.

While they poo-poo gold or pretend it doesn't exist, global central banks have been quietly but aggressively accumulating gold bullion for several years now. The Central Bank of Russia, for example, has been a consistent buyer of gold.

Other major central banks have also been acquiring and holding the metal, although some scaled back last year following the pandemic and record-high prices for the metal.

Given more favorable market conditions and greater risks to holding U.S. dollar reserves, central banks may soon ramp up their gold buying again.

The Hungarian Central Bank cited “long-term national and economic policy strategy objectives” for its move.

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Commodities

Friday, April 16, 2021

Gold’s Singular Role / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

When it comes to analyzing gold and gold prices there seems to be no limit to the explanations of cause and effect. The number of things presumed to be fundamental, or which are correlated to gold, has grown exponentially as gold receives more attention in the media and from the public.

The state of confusion that exists regarding gold and gold prices is exacerbated by the contradictions and conflicting arguments of almost all concerned parties. This includes  investors, traders, analysts, and brokers (make sure your broker is safe to trade).

Rather than a desire to understand gold and its singular role, most investors and others are interested in gold only when its  price is going up. They buy it and then look for reasons to justify their expectations of even higher prices.

They do look for explanations as to why the price goes down, of course; especially when that happens after they have taken a position on the long side. By then, it is usually too late.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 08, 2021

Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Antonius_Aquinas

After Brexit, there has been a growing number of voices within the European Union and among various nationalistic groups arguing that English should be replaced as the official language since now only Ireland and Malta retain English.

The loudest quarter calling for a change has come from the French who, not surprisingly, want their own tongue to become the lingua franca of the EU.  Eric Zemmour, a French conservative commentator, asserts, “I think this is the time to launch a counter-offensive in favour of French, to recall that French was the original language of EU institutions.”*

A return to French, however, has its difficulties with other nationalist groups particularly those from the EU’s dominant economic power, Germany.

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Commodities

Monday, April 05, 2021

Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Longtime gold bashers are gloating over the precious metal’s recent price slump. Gold prices have declined more than 10% in the first quarter of 2021.

But the perma-bears shouldn’t feel vindicated. After all, anyone who heeded their advice missed out on gold’s record run in 2020 – and on many years of outperformance since 2001.

While gold bugs are often accused of having an unhealthy obsession with the metal, the “anti-gold” bugs reveal a deep-seated bias that can only be explained as irrational or dishonest.

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Commodities

Monday, April 05, 2021

Will Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Rebuild Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Biden just announced an ambitious and expensive infrastructure plan. Will it rebuild gold?

Yesterday (Mar. 31), President Joe Biden announced the big infrastructure plan , the second major legislative initiative after the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan passed in early March. The proposal includes about $2.2 trillion in new spending over eight years, boosting government expenditures even further .

Despite the name, the plan assumes that only a part would be spent on infrastructure. To be more specific, Biden wants to spend $600 billion on transportation infrastructure (such as bridges, roads, airports, etc.), and more than $300 billion on improving utilities infrastructure (drinking-water pipes, electric grids, broadband). He also proposes to put more than $300 billion into building and upgrading housing and schools, $400 billion to care for elderly and disabled Americans, and almost $600 billion in research and development infrastructure, manufacturing, and job training.

That doesn’t sound bad at all (after all, infrastructure is critical), but there is a catch. The plan assumes that all the spending will be financed by tax hikes. Biden proposes to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate from the 21 percent set by Trump to 28 percent, as well as to eliminate all fossil fuel industry subsidies and loopholes. So, according to the proposal, the tax reforms will add about 0.5 percent of GDP in fiscal revenues, which are believed to fully pay for investments within the next 15 years.
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Commodities

Sunday, April 04, 2021

Silver $100 Price Ahead / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth, editor of Silver Stock Investor, discusses the macroeconomic environment for silver and why he is embracing the metal's volatility. Being a silver investor over the last few weeks has become more psychologically challenging.

That's true even for us die-hard silver enthusiasts.

After all silver had a standout 2020, having gained about 47% in its best year since 2010. That easily outpaced gold's own impressive 25% return.

But the reality is that so far in 2021, silver is down 9%. And meanwhile, nearly all the fundamental market drivers have remained intact. It seems the pressures on silver prices are likely from two angles. The first is after such an impressive 2020, it was due to correct. That's what bull markets do.

The second pressure point is a rising U.S. dollar index, likely thanks to rising long-term bond yields. However, it's important to consider that this trend will also run its course and exhaust itself. That could happen naturally, or the Fed could intervene by imposing Yield Curve Control.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 03, 2021

Gold Price Just Can’t Seem to Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Confirmed, unconfirmed, verified, and invalidated: breakouts and breakdowns are now ubiquitous. And the implications are bearish for gold.

Let’s start today’s analysis with a discussion of the key market that everyone is interested in – gold.

Gold’s Failed Breakout – A Sell Sign

In short, gold just invalidated its small breakout above the declining blue resistance line. The previous breakout was small and thus it required a confirmation. It never got one, and instead gold plunged, invalidating the move. This is yet another sell sign that we saw.

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Commodities

Friday, April 02, 2021

Gold And US Dollar Hegemony / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. That isn’t likely to change anytime soon.

All currencies are substitutes for real money, i.e. gold.  And because all governments inflate and destroy their own currencies, any potential alternatives to the US dollar are as bad or worse.

That doesn’t stop the dollar bashing, of course. In a general long-term sense, the condemnation is well-deserved. After all, the US dollar, under the care and watch keeping of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, has lost more than ninety-eight percent of its purchasing power.

The possibility of gold reasserting itself as the international medium of exchange continues to increase; but, a lot more bad stuff has to happen before we get to that point. Also, governments around the world have too much at stake to capitulate when it comes to ceasing to issue ‘funny money’.

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Commodities

Friday, April 02, 2021

What Biden’s Big Infrastructure Push Means for Silver Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The federal government is spending and redistributing newly created cash so rapidly, it’s becoming difficult to keep track of which trillions are going where.

This week, President Joe Biden will pitch a $3 trillion “green” infrastructure package. That’s on top of the $1.9 trillion economic “relief” bill he recently signed into law.

Next month, Biden is expected to roll out plans for additional trillions to be spent on healthcare, education, housing, and more.

Republicans in Congress may object to some of the proposed spending. But they have a lousy track record – even during times when they were the majority – when it comes to actually reining in federal outlays.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 01, 2021

A Climbing USDX Means Gold Investors Should Care / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Positions in the USDX are shifting from shorts to longs, so gold investors should look closely. Why? Because it’s an inverse relationship.

We’ve discussed the negative correlation between the dollar and the precious metals many times before, but it can never be discussed enough, particularly as the situation develops and the outlook for the USD Index becomes more positive.

Once the USD Index lands some knockout punches, the precious metals will be hurting, as they tend to do when the dollar rises. Gold, silver and the miners will eventually rise, but for the medium-term, they are still in bearish territory.

Counted out, counted down and rarely counted on, investors threw in the USD Index’s towel long before the fight even began. However, after shaking the cobwebs and landing a few haymakers, the greenback’s Rocky-like comeback is proof that ‘it ain’t over till it’s over.’

Let’s look at the factors influencing rise of the USD Index as well as some of the historical patterns:

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Another day, another reversal – and a positive one for stocks. Universal sectoral weakness gave way to a unison rebound amid constructive outside markets. After weeks of on and off fits over rising Treasury yields, S&P 500 ran into headwinds on their retreat, and recaptured its luster yesterday as long-dated Treasuries (TLT ETF) rolled over to the downside. I guess nothing boosts confidence as much a troubled 7-year Treasury auction.

While it‘s far from full steam ahead, it‘s a welcome sight that the reflation trade dynamic has returned, and that technology isn‘t standing in the way. I think we‘re on the doorstep of another upswing establishing itself, which would be apparent latest Monday. Credit markets support such a conclusion, and so does the premarket turn higher in commodities – yes, I am referring also to yesterday‘s renewed uptick in inflation expectation.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Is Silver the New Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Many analysts expect silver to outperform gold this year. It’s possible, but investors shouldn’t count on improving economic conditions and industrial demand.

Silver has recently become a hot investment theme. For months, if not years, some analysts claimed that silver is undervalued relative to gold. Then, at the beginning of 2021, Reddit revolutionaries tried to trigger a short squeeze in silver. Although that attempt failed, silver has, so far, clearly been outperforming gold this year , as the chart below shows. So, is silver now a better investment than gold?

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Commodities

Monday, March 29, 2021

Helicopter Money Vs. Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, looks at the Fed's actions and what they augur for gold. This week Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the "Innovation Summit" hosted by the Bank for International Settlements.

During his talk, he dissed Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies saying they were "…highly volatile and therefore not really useful stores of value, and they're not backed by anything."

OK, let me get this straight.

At its latest FOMC meeting the Fed promised near-zero interest with no rate hikes until 2023, and its $120 billion monthly asset purchases see no sign of abating.

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Commodities

Monday, March 29, 2021

Powell and Yellen Sound Upbeat. Don’t They Like Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Both Powell and Yellen testified before Congress. They sounded upbeat on the U.S. economy, but gold’s reaction was weak.

What a combo! Both Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testified before Congress this week. They spoke about the economic response to the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Great Lockdown .

In his prepared remarks , Powell sounded rather hawkish , as he noted that “the recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected and looks to be strengthening.” As well, during the Q&A session, the Fed Chair seemed to be very confident about the economy and the central bank’s monetary policy . In particular, Powell told senators that 2021 was “going to be a very, very strong year in the most likely case.”
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