Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Silver Price Tradeable Rally Probable / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

I'm of the opinion that the metals have probably formed at least an intermediate bottom, and are ready to generate a trade-able rally over the next 4-8 weeks"

Monday, December 28, 2015

Do the Consumer Reports Drive the Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

GDP, employment and inflation are a Holy Trinity of economic indicators. However, reports on consumer activity are also extremely important for the financial markets. It is not surprising: consumers are the ultimate rulers of the economy and their actions affect GDP, corporate profits and stock prices, labor market, inflation, the housing market and so on. There are several ways of measuring consumer activity, but it is the Personal Income and Outlays report that is the most widely watched data on consumer spending. The report includes data both on personal income and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The latter primarily measures consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy. It indicates the economic growth, since it is released monthly (while GDP is published quarterly) and it accounts for about two-thirds of the final domestic spending. Therefore, it should move very closely together with the GDP. Does it really do so? Let’s look at the chart below.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Gold Market Manipulation - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

I explain how and why I think the gold bear market is artificial, and due to manipulation by a few big banks in the paper market. I discuss the market reaction that will confirm I’m correct. The analysts that for a couple of years have been trying to deny manipulation are ultimately going to look like idiots, and the Sinclairs of the world are going to have the last laugh, and will be proven correct in the end.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Congress Eliminates U.S. Export Oil Ban / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: BATR

If you want to know how the “so called” Free Trade exponents think about exports, just analyze the impact and actual beneficiaries of the US House passes bill to lift 40-year ban on oil exports.

“The crude export restrictions were introduced in the US in 1975 in the middle of the energy crisis. They followed OPEC’s oil embargo of the US and other countries backing Israel during the Arab–Israeli war of 1973. In the face of embargo-related high oil prices, Washington eased the limits on oil imports and ordered an export ban.”

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Investors Gear Up for a Violent Uranium Price Spike / Commodities / Uranium

By: The_Energy_Report

The price of uranium is still in the doldrums, but that will change soon—and violently, says Rob Chang of Cantor Fitzgerald Canada. In this interview with The Energy Report, he explains that electric utilities will begin to run short of fuel even before 2020, when 33 additional reactors are expected to come on line. With that in mind, Chang predicts that prices could triple in the next few years, and highlights a half-dozen equities that will likely supply the increased demand and thereby deliver multiples to investors.

The Energy Report: Does cheap oil depress uranium demand?

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

HUI GOLD Ratio Chart…Another Grizzly Year! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Rambus_Chartology

I was just going over some old charts and came across this one which is a ratio chart that compares the HUI to gold going all the way back to the bear market low that was made back in 2000. I use to show this chart quite a bit when the blue triangle on the right side of the chart broke down. This chart shows you a good example of how weak the HUI has been vs gold. The initial impulse move out of the 2000 bear market low shows the HUI really kicking gold’s butt until late 2003. The ratio then declined into the 2005 low which ended creating a double top hump.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Gold and Silver: A Positive Big Picture View of Risk vs. Reward / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

While routinely following the precious metals as one of many sectors in NFTRH, we have mostly left it alone with respect to public writing over the last few years.  That is because it is in a bear market and since I am not a slick short-term trader, I have felt it is best to mostly just let it play out to the bear’s will without overly active involvement.

But several indicators have us on alert that 2016 is going to be the year that the bear ends in gold and gold stocks.  So why not publicly discuss the shiny rock a bit more in anticipation?  I am still 100% in line with the value aspect of a monetary metal that is historically sought after in times of doubt about the Monetary Politburo’s (Central Bankers’) ability to manipulate the global macro backdrop as desired and to positive effect over the long-term.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Gold Price Not Signaling a Long-term Bear Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Toby_Connor

Gold isn't doing anything unusual. It's not signaling a long-term bear market. It's just doing what every D-wave except one has done by retracing to test the previous C-wave top.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Four Mining Stocks that Can Survive Gold $1,050 and Silver $15 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: The_Gold_Report

The price of gold has see-sawed since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Dec. 16, and market experts debate if the action is good or bad for gold. Rob Chang of Cantor Fitzgerald Canada believes that after the small rate hike doomsayers are overstating their case and that gold should sell in 2016 for about $100/oz more than today. In this interview with The Gold Report, he argues that in today's climate cash costs of $1,000/oz are the bare minimum necessary for survival. Happily, Chang highlights three gold producers and one silver producer that have what it takes.

The Gold Report: Some say the price of gold has for some time been suppressed by fear of a Federal Reserve rate hike. What do you think?

Monday, December 21, 2015

Silver: May the 100 Year Force Be With You / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

What force?  Some of the “forces” in our world that are supportive of higher silver prices are:

• Debt Increases: Global debt exceeds $200 Trillion and rising rapidly.

• Warfare: Syria, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, South China Sea, Chicago and others.  It is a long list.

• Welfare: Bank bailouts, military contractors, Medicaid, food stamps, dozens of “programs” and so much more.

• Central bank “money printing:” Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and others are doing what they do best – devaluing their currencies.  The bubbles created in the bond, stock, and currency markets must be fed and supported.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Gold Price Double Bottom and Bitcoin - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Mario_Innecco

Transcript excerpt:
December 21st 2015 I'll be talking today about a prop probable or possible double
bottom in the price of gold and also about Bitcoin which is doing it been
doing quite well recently where trading around 4:40 right now we are down twenty
one dollars from from the highs 468 earlier you know earlier in the day
gold is trading at 1068 we we did get up to a thousand 74 earlier in London it's
right now almost 1 p.m. London time almost 8 a.m. Eastern Standard Time New
York so the possible double bottom in gold is between it looks like reform
that you know I double bottom 2047 which was the law on the 3rd of December and
roughly the same low on the 17th of December with that in mind I've looked
at the high on the 4th of December which is a thousand and 89 and that will be

Monday, December 21, 2015

When Gold Comes Back Into Favor? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Submissions

Sasafuturestrading writes: Stocks usually change direction before commodities.

There is one market that really shines when stocks and the dollar are in bear markets together, and that market is gold.

In other words, a climate of falling stock prices, a falling U.S. dollar, and historically low interest rates don’t leave investors with a lot of investment alternatives. This is the exact type of intermarket climate that drives money to gold.

Monday, December 21, 2015

U.S. Silver Production Plunges by 20% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jason_Hamlin

To view The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released their September silver production numbers this week and the results were incredible. Only 82.6 metric tons (mt) of silver were produced domestically in September versus 103 tons during September of last year. This represents a massive decline of 20% and is part of a greater trend of declining silver supply.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Silver Price Stuck in a Grim Downtrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

Silver has been somewhat weaker than gold in the recent past and dropped to clear new lows last Monday, as we can see on its 6-month chart below, but this should not come as a surprise as its recent COT structure has been nowhere near as positive as gold's, and at the end of a bearmarket or beginning of a bullmarket, gold outperforms silver.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Gold Price Suspected Bullish Falling Wedge Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

Gold's technical picture is actually little changed from the last update posted on the 6th, apart from its having made marginal new lows late last week. What has changed is that we have since seen the Fed raise interest rates for the first time in many years, and the Junk Bond market has started to seriously fall apart.

With respect to the rise in interest rates there are two points to be made. The first is that, contrary to the general belief that gold is less attractive in an environment of rising rates because it doesn't pay interest, it actually does well, because some of the money that floods out of the stockmarket flows into gold. Second, the Fed's diminutive rate rise was a hollow face-saving measure, intended to salvage some credibility after it had been "crying wolf" for so long. It is too little and far too late.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Why Gold Price is going down, in Two Words: IT's NOT ! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Denali_Guide

          So as ephemeral as anything is to “prove” by math, we can observe and draw the following conclusion, that REAL METAL GOLD is priced far differently than PAPER CONTRACTS settled in Dollars.  Having not “proved” this but empirical observations to illustrate and support this enduring phenomena, we conclude that: “Currencies fluctuate, at different rates against MANDATORY DELIVERIES of METAL GOLD vs. PAYMENT in any given currency.”

Sunday, December 20, 2015

The Natural Gas Trading Play / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: EconMatters

Bearish Sentiment

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Gold And Silver - Physical Precious Metals Are A 'Gift' At Current Levels / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

It really matters little what the charts are saying about the paper futures for gold and silver here, which we will get to shortly. The focus needs to be kept on a few facts that are inescapably true: fiat currencies throughout the history on this planet have always, always failed, without exception, 100% of the time. There are few situations for which such a statement of guaranteed [failed] performance can be made.

It is any different this time? Yes and no. No, because all fiats have failed, plain and simple. Yes, because the extent to which there is no reasonable reality in the relationship between paper and physical has never occurred to the current degree, ever.

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Gold Stocks Remain in Position to Rebound / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The Fed rate hike has come and gone while the precious metals sector has continued to whipsaw traders day after day. The initial reaction was very positive. However, that completely reversed course on Thursday with Gold threatening to move to a new low and gold miners threatening to test recent support. Friday's strength continued the whipsaw pattern. In any event, the evidence continues to argue in favor of a rebound for the miners into Q1 2016.

Friday, December 18, 2015

Do Inflation Indicators Drive the Prices of Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Alongside the GDP and labor market’s strength, inflation rate is the most important macroeconomic indicator – since the Fed promotes full employment and price stability. The price stability is measured as the inflation rate, so inflation reports are closely watched by the U.S. central bank and investors. In the August Market Overview, we showed that gold is not always an inflation hedge. At that time, we focused on the Consumer Price Index, which is not the only measure of inflation. The others are the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI).