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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Fed Can Control Yield Curve. But It Can’t Control Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In a response to the coronavirus crisis, the Fed has already cut interest rates to zero and implemented quantitative easing. But that’s not enough and the U.S. central bankers are now talking about “yield curve control”. What is it and how it could affect the gold market?

Normally, the central banks lower the short-term interest rate to stimulate the economy. But the federal funds rate is already at zero, so the Fed now thinks about the yield curve control. It works basically like normal open-market operations – the only difference is that under the yield curve control, the Fed would target some longer-term interest rate. As the central bank would set the short-term rates at zero and it would target also longer-term rates, it would practically control the yield curve, which explains the name. Moreover, the Fed would also promise to buy enough bonds to keep the rate from moving above the target – this is why the yield curve control is also called “interest rate caps” or “interest rate pegs”.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Cycles Demand Attention / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Research Highlights:

  • With Gold trading above $2,000 for the first time and Silver trading near $27.50, you need to understand the risks in the markets that precious metals are warning of.
  • If Gold breaks above $2,400, then there is a very real concern that the global markets could be close to some type of decline/collapse event.
  • We believe the upside potential in precious metals could drive a very wide sideways market rotation, similar to what happened between 1999 and 2011, over the next 3+ years that may catch many off-guard.

Over the past few weeks and months, my research team and I have been actively publishing this research to help you better understand what is really happening in the markets right now.  With Gold trading above $2,000 for the first time and Silver trading near $27.50, skilled traders need to understand the risks in the markets that precious metals are warning of.  Think of it like this, as long as Gold continues to trade near or above $1900, the risk levels in the global markets are at extreme levels for traders and investors.  If Gold breaks above $2,400, then there is a very real concern that the global markets could be close to some type of decline/collapse event.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Warren Buffett: From Gold-Hater to Gold Bug / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth discusses Warren Buffett's big move into gold and discusses why the price of the metal is likely to climb much higher.

Warren Buffett has long been known as one of the biggest gold-haters around.

Yet in one move he's helped gold go mainstream.

The "Oracle of Omaha's" about face could be the ultimate Buy Signal.

For millions of investors, seeing Buffett dump banks while buying gold is likely to have a profound impact.

But as I'll show you, what's going on in the gold markets goes way beyond Buffett.

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Commodities

Monday, August 24, 2020

Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

"Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices"

Elliott Wave International's analysts have posited that the next big global monetary event will be deflation, not inflation.

The writer of an August 18 Telegraph article also sees "powerful deflationary winds."

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Commodities

Monday, August 24, 2020

The 100% Gold Portfolio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

When I founded BMG Group Inc. (formerly Bullion Management Group Inc. – BMG) over 20 years ago, I thought that my main challenge would be to get approval for our first fund from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC). My premise was that there was no approved way for retail investors to hold bullion in their RRSPs and other registered accounts. In addition, I wanted to structure the fund in a way that would not compromise the three fundamental attributes of bullion: liquidity, no counterparty risk and independent of management skills. Upon investigating closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and proxies, such as mining stocks and futures contracts, I found that all of these structures either compromised the liquidity of physical bullion or were not bullion at all, and were therefore dependent on counterparties for their performance. Other attributes compromised the direct ownership of bullion due to dependence on a portfolio manager to make trading decisions and to manage the asset. In addition, bullion leasing and leverage could distort the pure performance of bullion.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Was That the Top in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

It could have been. But what is more likely, it could have been the final pre-plunge top in case of the mining stocks. Why? Because the history tends to rhyme, and the verses appear more similar to what we already “read” in the mining stocks than they what we can see on the gold market.

Before digging into details, we would like to quote what we wrote on mining stocks on Monday:

Back in March, gold moved back to its previous highs (in fact it moved slightly above it) before topping and right now, it’s consolidating lower. Still, we should keep in mind that there’s also the possibility that gold won’t repeat the March performance to the letter and history will rhyme instead.

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Commodities

Friday, August 21, 2020

Gold Price - See What This Fibonacci Ratio Says About Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

A Fibonacci .618 retracement is a common reversal point in the markets

Fibonacci numbers follow a sequence that begins with 0 and 1, and each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, and so on).

After the first several numbers in the sequence, the ratio of any number to the next higher is approximately .618 to 1; its ratio to the next lower number is approximately 1.618 to 1.

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Commodities

Friday, August 21, 2020

Beyond the Surreal: Navigating the Precious Metals Minefield / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

The story of how an inner city liquor store grew its business serves as an example of what sector expert Michael Ballanger calls " a compelling revelation of 'academics versus practicality.'"

In watching the travesty of disinformation, misinformation and moral hazard formation ongoing in the global financial markets, I am immediately reminded of a case study from my university days of which I was a part, the nature of which required that our team analyze a local business and make specific recommendations designed to improve it. Seeing as our campus was located in the Saint Louis inner city, surrounded on three sides by a ghetto second only to Detroit's in crime and murder, and on the fourth by Interstate 70, it was to no one's surprise that the "local business" we were to dissect was a package liquor outlet run by a large and very angry African American gentleman by the name of Marcus Thicke.

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Commodities

Friday, August 21, 2020

Buffett’s Indicator tells him to buy GOLD / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Warren Buffett did what he said he’d never do, and that is buy gold - not the physical metal, nor an ETF, but a gold mining stock. Buffett and/or his holding company's managers chose ABX, as it is known in Toronto, or GOLD, on the New York exchange. The surprising trade is highly symbolic given Buffett’s previous fervently anti-gold public statements.

Last Friday the Oracle of Omaha’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKB) picked up about 20 million shares of Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX), presumably on the strength of the second largest gold company’s growth potential, and the fact it pays a $0.08/share dividend.

“If you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end,” the Oracle famously wrote in a 2011 annual shareholder letter, joking about a big pile of gold that “you can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.”

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Commodities

Thursday, August 20, 2020

The Gold and Silver Dam Breaketh / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Ask precious metals' holders and chart technicians what in the last 6-8 weeks stands out in their mind and they will point to the breakout of gold and silver above areas which had contained them for almost a decade.

Gold rocketed without pause to $2,070. Silver, though still well below record nominal dollar highs, sliced through $26, which was supposed to be a lid on prices until next year.

A litany of "price pullers" we've long discussed in our essays – government deficit spending, lagging metals' production vs. exploding demand, and an almost complete absence of big discoveries have all played a part.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 20, 2020

The Case for a Platinum-Plated Metals Portfolio / Commodities / Platinum

By: MoneyMetals

Do precious metals still represent good value?

With gold just coming off a new all-time high above $2,000/oz and silver having more than doubled off its March bottom, some investors may be wary of entering these markets right now.

However, when adjusted for inflation, when measured against the stock market, or when compared to total money supply, a strong case can be made that gold is not yet overvalued – and that silver remains undervalued.

Investors who are seeking an even more deeply undervalued opportunity within the metals space should take a look at platinum.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Silver Price Rockets to Multi-Year Highs, Targets $169 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jason_Hamlin

After nearly 7 years of consolidation and mostly sideways trading, the silver price is finally experiencing a powerful breakout. It did not take long after breaking above the psychologically-important $20 level for silver to climb another nearly 50% toward $30 per ounce.

The silver price has since corrected by 11% to the current price of $26.40, but remains up more than 45% in three weeks. Remarkably, silver is now up more than 125% from the March lows and we see significantly more upside ahead.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 18, 2020

Gold After US Dollar Dominance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Today, if gold had the same kind of performance as the Dow since around the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, then it would have topped out at around $7 758 [(29568/78.78)*20.67]. Yet, it only has an all-time high of about $2 089.

In 1973 gold was in a similar type of position. The Dow had peaked at 1067.2 (in Jan 1973), which represented a X13.55 (1067.2/78.78) since 1913. If gold had scored a similar performance, it would have had a peak of about $280 (13.55*20.67), yet its peak at that time (the beginning of 1973) was only around $70.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, August 17, 2020

Gold & Silver Detailed Trend Forecast 2020 and 2021 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This research article may get a bit technical, so please excuse us in advance if we ramble on about Measured Moves, Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs, and other technical jargon.  Our goal is to share with you our expectations for Gold and Silver near the end of 2020 and out into early 2021.

ARCS, MEASURES & THE US DOLLAR

Our first observation to share with you today is the potential for the  “Measured Price Moves” in Gold and Silver to continue.  We’ve seen near-perfect price advances over the past 8+ months relating to these Measured Moves.  In Gold, the Measured Move equates to about $263.20.  In Silver, the measured move equated to about $5.40. 

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Commodities

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Gold $2,100 and Silver $30. What Next?  / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

On August 7, gold in U.S. dollars, notched its all-time nominal high of $2,089 (It's been printing new highs in many other currencies for quite awhile now.)

Silver peaked (so far) at $29.92. After a few days of attempting to scale $30, it gave up the ghost and dropped a stunning $4.90 intraday, closing down $3.20.

Not satisfied with punishing the bulls during the day session, silver proceeded to drop another $2.30 in overnight Forex trading, but next day opened virtually unchanged just below $26!

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Commodities

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Forex, Gold, Silver + 5 More Metals Market Forecasts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

3 (free) ways to ride next big wave in EURUSD, USDJPY, gold, silver and more

Hi Reader,

We are well into the second half of 2020. Are you on track to meet your 2020 trading goals?

Our friends at Elliott Wave International (EWI) can help -- free.

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Commodities

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Precious Metals Are in the Danger Zone, 2020 Forecast Issue Revisited / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger runs the numbers on current and future values of gold and silver given current economic conditions.

"I'd rather be a gold bug then a paper worm." —Anonymous

In late 2019, as I was laying out the framework for the 2020 GGMA Forecast Issue, there was only one four-letter word that kept cropping up and that word was D-E-B-T (actually there were two, but one was what I mutter every time the auto spellcheck completes a word I do not intend to type).

Long before COVID-19 and government-imposed lockdowns cratered the global economy, I was formulating the future price of gold based upon the layers upon layers of sovereign, corporate and household debt sloshing around the world. I deduced that since faith in fiat currencies was rapidly evaporating, then the only remaining collateral left carrying the ability to underpin the gargantuan sovereign debt beast was gold.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 15, 2020

With Gold Above $2,000, Bulls Triumph! What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The triumph of the gold bulls has finally come, as gold jumped above $2,000. But what’s next for the shiny metal?
Well, that escalated quickly! At the end of July, when gold was still below $1,900, I went on a short vacation, and when I’m back, the yellow metal is above $2,000. Whoa, it was a real blitzkrieg! Just please take a look at the chart below – as you can see, gold soared in early August, surpassing the psychologically important level of $2,000 per ounce.

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Commodities

Friday, August 14, 2020

Silver May Be Overextended – But It’s STILL Cheap / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Silver prices aren’t just rising; they’re erupting!

Silver has been ascending at a far steeper rate than the climactic move of 2010-2011 which briefly brought prices back up to all-time nominal highs.

Adding a 20-week rate of change (ROC) indicator to the silver futures chart below shows prices gaining 122.4% over that period – far exceeding the rate of ascent of the last big silver spike.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Will You Make Money in the New Silver Bull Market ? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight lets take a look at the bad boy of the PM complex, silver. If you’ve been following silver for any length of time then you know it can be aggravating at times as we’ve seen fairly recently when gold and the PM stocks have been running pretty hot to the upside while silver just sat there doing its job of frustrating as many investors in the PM complex as it could. Finally, three weeks ago silver broke out above overhead resistance and decided to join the party.

Tonight I’m going to start with a few long term charts for silver. It’s these long term charts we need to understand first so we know where silver has been trading and where it is likely to go based on the Chartology which has been guiding us pretty well so far since what will now be called the March 2020 low in the years ahead.

This first chart is a ratio combo chart which has the GOLD:SILVER ratio on top with gold just below followed by silver with the XAU on the bottom. Everyone has their own interpretation of how they like to analyze that ratio. I have my own thoughts on how I like to view the ratio chart and how to use it in deciding if the PM complex is in a bull or bear market. We’ve discussed many times is the past that knowing if you’re in a bull or bear market is the single most important aspect of trading the intermediate to long term trends.

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