Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, November 04, 2013
U.S. National Debt to Double from $17.0 trillion to $34.0 Trillion? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes:
Can it be true?
The U.S. Department of the Treasury has reported that for the federal government’s fiscal 2013 year, which ended on September 30, 2013, the U.S. government budget deficit was $680 billion—the smallest budget deficit in five years. (Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service, October 30, 2013.)
Sunday, November 03, 2013
U.S. Treasury Yields in Perspective / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: Let’s have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oil Embargo was finally ended after Paul Volcker raised the FFR to 20.06%.
Monday, October 28, 2013
The Debt Situation in Europe and the U.S. Video / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2013
By: EWI
In this video clip from Steve Hochberg's "Don't Get Caught Holding the Bag" presentation, recorded at the San Francisco MoneyShow, Elliott Wave International's Chief Market Analyst addresses a popular question we get at EWI. Enjoy this insight from Hochberg, then take a few minutes to learn how you can get Elliott Wave International's newest free report: How to Protect Your Money When the U.S. Debt Bill Comes Due.
Sunday, October 27, 2013
Code Red - Central Bankers Gone Wild / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: John_Mauldin
I wasn't the only person coming out with a book this week (much more on that at the end of the letter). Alan Greenspan hit the street with The Map and the Territory. Greenspan left Bernanke and Yellen a map, all right, but in many ways the Fed (along with central banks worldwide) proceeded to throw the map away and march off into totally unexplored territory. Under pressure since the Great Recession hit in 2007, they abandoned traditional monetary policy principles in favor of a new direction: print, buy, and hope that growth will follow. If aggressive asset purchases fail to promote growth, Chairman Bernanke and his disciples (soon to be Janet Yellen and the boys) respond by upping the pace. That was appropriate in 2008 and 2009 and maybe even in 2010, but not today.
Saturday, October 26, 2013
Money Printing Debt Monetization Madness Continues / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Andy_Sutton
Now that another annoying gut check moment is safely in the rearview mirror, we can all get back to the business of filling the punch bowl yet another time. Yep, once again, we’ve proven ourselves to be among the dimmest of bulbs and are going right back to the bag of tricks that isn’t working anymore, but nobody seems to be noticing that – at least not on a meaningful level. Yes, I’m referring to the umpteenth opening of the monetary spigots announced gleefully in the mainstream press this week. The whole world is awash in money, every one is rich, and the party is bound to go on for at least another hundred years if you listen to the misinformation misfit mafia.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
U.S. Debt Dangerous Situation / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Fred_Sheehan
In May 2013, the U.S. Treasury had spent up to its statutory debt limit. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew wrote House Speaker Boehner that the Treasury would "begin implementing the standard set of extraordinary measures that allows the Treasury to continue to borrow and spend even after it has hit the legal debt limit."
Through October 16, 2013, the Daily Treasury Statement showed "Total Public Debt Subject to Limit" at $16,699,396. The "16" is trillions; the numbers are in millions. The "Statutory Debt Limit" (the next line on the Daily Treasury Statement), showed, day-in and day-out: "$16,699,421. The difference was $25,000,000: This figure adds back the zeros not shown on the daily posting.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Interest Rates 60 Year Cycle Low / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: readtheticker
The cost if capital is rising, the big cycles are rolling over. Today's debt slaves will not be happy.
For the fundamental trader a good reason that interest rates are on the long trend higher can be found via Steven Roach comments on a change in China.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Janet Yellen the U.S. Interest Rates Hawk? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Well, it’s official. President Obama has picked Janet Yellen as his nominee to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. In the months leading up to this announcement, the press unanimously dubbed Yellen the Queen of the Doves, pointing to her reluctance to roll back the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program. As it turns out, however, Yellen is hardly the dove she is made out to be. Indeed, when it comes to money supply, Dr. Yellen seems, well, downright hawkish.
Friday, October 18, 2013
U.S. Debt Credit Rating Downgraded to Same Level as Brazil? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: The U.S. government, after winning World War II for the Allies, was very convincing. It told central banks around the world that they should hold the U.S. dollar as their reserve currency instead of gold, based on the idea the U.S. dollar would be backed by gold. Only limited amounts of U.S. dollars could be printed, because the currency was tied to gold bullion. Central banks bought into the idea.
Friday, October 18, 2013
Blackrock - Impact of the Debt Ceiling Debate on the Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Bloomberg
BlackRock Chairman & CEO Larry Fink appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers" today, where he told hosts Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle that stock markets may decline as a result of the debt ceiling debate. He said, "I'm much more worried about the U.S. now than the last time I was on your show...We are going to see a lower equity market and a longer period of lower rates" if earnings start to deteriorate in the fourth quarter following the stalemate in Washington.
Sunday, October 13, 2013
Terrible News for Retirees - Could You Stand Low Interest Rates for the Next 20 Years? / Interest-Rates / Pensions & Retirement
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: I couldn't believe it...
It was huge news last week for the financial markets... but nobody reported it.
I guess nobody wanted to believe it... Maybe it was so extreme that nobody could even process that it was possible.
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Wednesday, October 09, 2013
Ominous Warnings About U.S. Debt Default and Impact on the Global Economy / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: LewRockwell
Michael Snyder writes: A U.S. debt default that lasts for more than a couple of days could potentially cause a financial crash unlike anything that the world has ever seen before. If the U.S. government purposely wanted to damage the global financial system, the best way that they could do that would be to default on U.S. debt obligations. A U.S. debt default would cause stocks to crash, would cause bonds to crash, would cause interest rates to soar wildly out of control, would cause a massive credit crunch, and would cause a derivatives panic that would be absolutely unprecedented. And that would just be for starters. But don’t just take my word for it. These are the things that top financial experts all over the planet are saying will happen if there is an extended U.S. debt default.
Thursday, October 03, 2013
Fed Retreats From QE Tapering, Five Reasons Why / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Gary_Dorsch
Nowadays, the sitting members of the inner circle at the Federal Reserve are nothing more than political lackeys - conducting the nation's monetary policy, at the beset of whatever political party happens to hold the upper hand in the legislature. In his May 29th speech, titled "Central banking at a Crossroads," former Fed chief Paul Volcker lamented that the Fed had been hijacked by the Treasury and the White House. In calling for the Bernanke Fed to begin rolling back QE-3, Volcker said, " There is something else beyond the necessary mechanics and timely action that is at stake. The credibility of the Federal Reserve, its commitment to maintain price stability and its ability to stand up against pressing and partisan political pressures is critical. Independence can't just be a slogan," he warned.
Thursday, October 03, 2013
QE Taper Talk Fakeout / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Peter_Schiff
Anyone who bought the media buzz about a September reduction of QE - called the "taper" - was very surprised when the Federal Reserve announced that stimulus would continue unabated. According the the official narrative, inflation is under control and the labor market is steadily improving. Why wouldn't a modest taper be announced?
The reality is that the economic indicators the Fed claims to rely on to decide when to taper are all dependent on stimulus money. This is not a mystery to Ben Bernanke. Instead, this entire saga amounted to little more than a "taper fakeout" which sent hard asset investors for a loop.
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Thursday, October 03, 2013
U.S. Interest Rates - Three Days Away From a Market Decision / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Brian_Bloom
By Monday night, October 7th 2013, the first chart below will very likely show a resolution. Technically, the probabilities favour an upside break of the 10 year yield. Note how the MACD histograms have been rising
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Wednesday, October 02, 2013
Fed Could Delay QE Tapering Until After December / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Frank_Shostak
Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg News are now of the view that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering asset purchases in December. Contrary to expectations on the 18-19 of September, Federal Reserve policymakers have decided to continue with a very loose monetary stance and postpone the tapering of asset purchases.
Wednesday, October 02, 2013
US Debt Flies High – But NASA Keeps Mission Control Going / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Andrew_McKillop
ALWAYS A TEMPORARY SHUTDOWN
Analysts cited by ZeroHedge, 29 September, said that some 50% of US defence force workers will continue to be paid, and NASA will continue paying workers at Mission Control in Houston to support the International Space station, where two Americans and four other people live. Aside from that, only 3% of NASA's 18 000 other employees will keep on working. About 91% of the tax-gathering IRS' staff will also be furloughed – who needs to collect taxes at a moment like this?
Wednesday, October 02, 2013
QE Taper Capers / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
Michael Lewitt has long been one of my favorite thinkers and writers on matters economic. He's incisive, thorough, and, well, pithy. No holds barred. Today's Outside the Box features an extended excerpt from the October issue of Michael's The Credit Strategist, which he has kindly allowed me to pass on to you.
Michael leads off this month with some useful thoughts on "the art of learning to live with intellectual and emotional discomfort," which he says is a key requirement for successful investing. Then he extends these thoughts in order to give us a critique of recent Federal Reserve behavior that is different from any I've seen. The FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee), he says, has been seized by intellectual rigidity:
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Tuesday, October 01, 2013
Looking for a Bounce in the “ten-year” U.S. Treasury Note / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
TNX is the symbol for the interest rate on the ten-year, US Treasury note. One observation which has kept me from getting bullish about TNX (despite the break out above the long-term trendline) is the level of the red line in the chart below. The red line represents the distance between TNX and its 200 day moving average. Since last July it has far exceeded its highs at past tops in TNX (which is probably long-term bullish) but, not only did that level appear stretched, but it failed to confirm the higher highs in TNX seen in August and September.
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Tuesday, October 01, 2013
U.S. Debt Burden - The Most Predictable Economic Crisis? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Axel_Merk
Forget about a government shutdown. The quibbling over concessions to keep the government funded distracts from what might be the most predictable economic crisis. We have problems that may affect everything from the value of the U.S. dollar to investors’ savings, but also to national security.