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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, August 29, 2011

How to Protect and Profit From U.s. Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: By now, you've probably taken note of the growing bubble in Treasury bonds.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell below 2% for the first time in 50 years in the wake of the U.S. credit rating downgrade.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 29, 2011

PIMCO Missed the Trade of the Year in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePIMCO who specializes in Bonds, having the largest bond fund in the world could not have been more wrong about an asset class, which is surprising considering their experience in this sector. Bill Gross`s official declaration that his firm was shorting the US Treasury Market on April 11th of this year to the day marked the literal double bottom in price/high in yield for the year, and it has been one heck of a one-way trade in the opposite direction ever since.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 29, 2011

What happens when the U.S. Bond Market Loses its Patience? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Aftab_Singh

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe concomitant surges in the dollar prices of gold and the US treasury note seem to have got many market participants scratching their heads. For isn’t gold an ‘inflation asset’ and the treasury note a ‘deflation asset’? Aren’t they supposed to be antagonistic to one another? We square this price action by noting that the means of the currency skeptic are distinctly peculiar in this post-Bretton Woods experiment — it matters that the Federal Reserve note is by and large ‘backed’ by US government securities and gold. That being said, our hunch is that this price action is a relatively temporary phenomenon; for whereas gold remains intact regardless of an increasingly precarious stock of irredeemable claims upon it, US government securities do not. We believe that the current tolerance of the US bond market should be regarded as the last gift from above. Here I outline why a world with an intolerant bond market might not be that pleasant.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 28, 2011

China's Debt Problems Rival the West / Interest-Rates / China Economy

By: Justice_Litle

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThough the focus has been on the U.S. and Europe, China too has debt problems to contend with.

"If you look at the accounting, I don't see how anyone could put a penny there."

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 26, 2011

Has the Fed Already Started QE3? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Casey_Research

Bud Conrad, Casey Research Writes: The Fed surprised the market by extending its policy of 0 to 0.25% Fed funds rate to mid-2013. The way the Fed manages to drive rates lower is to buy Treasuries with newly created money – driving the price up and the rates down. The big question is whether the policy will have a sizeable effect on markets. The chart below shows the historical jump in the Fed’s combined policy tools that were used to lower rates and bail out financial institutions through a variety of programs. These include the big purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) called QE1 and the large purchase of Treasuries called QE2.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 26, 2011

Bernanke's Invisible Bazooka Ploy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBernanke is out of tools that make any sense even to him.

Seriously, what can he do he has not already done? Given that $1.6 trillion in excess reserves did not do a damn thing to spur lending or job creation, what possible good can another $1 trillion do?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 19, 2011

U.S. Treasury 10 Year Bonds Bubble At 2% Yield, US Nominal GDP Growth Heading Down Towards 0% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI’m a little slow, but perhaps someone can tell me what happened to the crowd who were jumping up and down screaming that US Treasuries were a bubble when the yield was 3.7%? If that was a bubble in 2009 and 2010 then 2.0% has to be an UBER-BUBBLE so you would think those guys would be having foaming-at-the mouth fits by now, I don’t know what happened to them, perhaps they all got sore throats?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 19, 2011

U.S. Treasury Hidden Trickery in Mortgage Backed Security Recoveries / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Aftab_Singh

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRight on schedule, the US Treasury received around $11 billion from the proceeds of Mortgage-backed Securities sales last Thursday. Moreover, the US Treasury released an update on the MBS portfolio wind down titled; ‘Taxpayers Recoveries Reach 70 Percent Milestone‘. The title left us thinking; hmmm… sort of… Here, I highlight the hidden confiscation involved with this particular piece of trickery and present the usual daily treasury statement charts.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Smallest Yield Curve Gap Between US and Japan in 19 Years Confirming Deflation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurve Watchers Anonymous notes amazingly low yields across the entire yield curve for the US, Japan, Germany, and the UK. Here is a chart I put together this evening.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Central Banks Monetary Policy Rocked by Global Financial Markets Turmoil / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: CentralBankNews

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe past week in monetary policy was rocked by the turmoil in global sentiment in the wake of the US sovereign credit rating downgrade, and heightened concerns about contagion in the European sovereign debt crisis. In all, 11 central banks reviewed monetary policy rates, with the following banks adjusting rates: Qatar -50bps to 4.50%, Mozambique -50bps to 16.00%, and Belarus +200bps to 22.00%. Meanwhile the following central banks held interest rates unchanged: Rwanda 6.00%, Indonesia 6.75%, US 0.25%, Hong Kong 0.50%, Norway 2.25%, Serbia 11.75%, South Korea 3.25%, and Peru 4.25%.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Wall Street Bailout: Too Big To Collect? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: EconMatters

In light of the recent S&P downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, the nation suddenly looks more dire financially than before the downgrade ( (at least psychologically, as the country still has the ability to borrow at its pre-downgrade low interest rates.)  So it would make tracking down Wall Street bailout money still outstanding a good start to reclaim some of the lost treasure. 

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 13, 2011

The Zero Interest Rate Market Fix is In / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

This week's wild actions on Wall Street should serve as a stark reminder that few investors have any clue as to what is really going on beneath the surface of America's troubled economy. But this week did bring startling clarity on at least one front. In its August policy statement the Federal Reserve took the highly unusual step of putting a specific time frame for the continuation of its near zero interest rate policy.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 12, 2011

Opportunities in UK Gilts and US Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe market has overcome the important Pivot at 124.95 from 2002  - and where it has failed twice before in 2009 and 2010.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Fed's Extension of Low Interest Rates For Another Two Years Will Deliver Damaging Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes: With little ammo left in its arsenal, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) yesterday (Tuesday) was unable to offer jittery markets anything more than a two-year extension of the Fed's low interest rates.

Instead of promising to keep rates at their low 0% to 0.25% level for an "extended period" as it has in its past several meetings, the FOMC said it would maintain those rates "at least through mid-2013."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Why a U.S. Debt Default Will Be a Good Thing / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Now that Standard & Poor's has finally slashed its U.S. credit rating, it's more apparent than ever that a U.S. default is imminent.

So if you're at all panicked by S&P's decision to downgrade the country's top-tier credit rating - and the resultant freefall in U.S. stock prices - brace yourself: It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
But make no mistake, it will get better.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Why the Yield Curve is Steepening / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Investors know that the yield curve can be used to forecast market movements.  When the difference in yield between short-dated debt and long-dated debt grows or shrinks, the next major move is a bearish or bullish signal for risk-related investments.

Now the yield curve is steepening significantly, but this time, the steepening of the yield curve shows indecision in lending, not indecision in investing.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 11, 2011

China Downgrades U.S. Treasury Bonds to A+, Is Anybody Listening? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Dorsch

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOf the big-3 credit rating agencies, only the S&P rating agency had the courage and fortitude to speak the truth, about the severe deterioration of America’s financial status. S&P shocked the political establishment in Washington, by following through with its threat to downgrade US Treasury debt to AA+ on the evening of August 5th. S&P added that the US Treasury debt could be downgraded further, if the crooked and inept politicians in Washington haven’t taken any meaningful moves to cut the size of its mounting debt.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

The Ice is Cracking, Get off the Sovereign Debt Late Before the Great Default Hits / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIce skaters who go out onto lakes or large ponds are told from their early years not to skate on thin ice. The sound of cracking ice is a signal to skate toward the shore.

On Friday, August 5, 2011, the world heard the ice crack. Late in the day, Standard & Poor's downgraded American government debt by one point: from AAA to AA+.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Marc Faber: Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond Market is a Bubble, Buy Gold / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart" with Bloomberg TV anchors Carol Massar and Matt Miller today.

Speaking on the phone from Thailand, Faber said that the markets are very oversold, the Fed is "underestimating the severity of the economic downturn" and that gold is the best investment right now.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

The Fed Holds Federal Funds Rate Unchanged Until Mid-2013, Also Leaves Door Open For More / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

The one-day FOMC meeting concluded with an unchanged federal funds rate, no surprises here.  In light of a string of recent weak economic reports a downgrade of its economic outlook was also not a surprise.  The FOMC now sees “downsides risks the economic outlook” as having increased compared with its assessment in June.  The Fed depicted labor market conditions to have “deteriorated,” household spending to have “flattened out,” the housing sector as languishing in a “depressed” state and the supply chain disruptions due to the natural disaster in Japan explaining only part of the economic slowdown. 

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