SNP Publish England's Suicide Note as Pollsters Still Forecast Labour-SNP Election Disaster

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 21, 2015 - 07:12 AM GMT

The Scottish Nationalists published their "Stronger for Scotland" on the backs of a Weaker England Manifesto that laid out how a defacto SNP dictatorship over England would operate by effectively sucking the financial blood out of a weak Labour minority English government before achieving Independence, especially given the fact that Scotland dodged a bullet last September for if they had voted for Independence then given the subsequent oil price crash, Scotland today would be just as bankrupt as Greece is.

Key points of control over England are:

To go on an £180 billion debt fuelled spending spree on the backs of England's wage slaves, much of which will be funneled into Scotland.
Full fiscal autonomy for Scotland but SNP MP's will still be able to vote for tax hikes on English workers.
Scottish MP's WILL vote on English ONLY matters.
Scrap Trident whilst Russia saber rattles, holding defence spending to ransom if they do not get their way.

The whole manifesto reeks of the SNP wanting to have their revenge on England for having lost last Septembers Independence referendum. Which through extreme interference in English affairs, the SNP effectively seeks to destroy the United Kingdom from within and achieve Independence from within the carcass of a disintegrating UK as my following recent articles illustrate the disastrous consequences of a weak Labour government being held to ransom by the SNP -

06 Apr 2015 - SNP Offers Labour Deadly Death Embrace Alliance, Holding England to Ransom, Destroy UK From Within (6768 Reads)
04 Apr 2015 - Labour Economic Collapse vs Coalition Recovery - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Video (3830 Reads)
03 Apr 2015 - Election 2015 Leaders Debate - Plaid Cymru Want to Follow SNP Example and Bankrupt England (1253 Reads)
03 Apr 2015 - Leaders Debate Election 2015 - Debt, Will Labour Bankrupt Britain Again? (1508 Reads)
01 Apr 2015 - Election Forecast 2015 - Coalition Economic Recovery vs Labour Collapse (4566 Reads)
31 Mar 2015 - Ed Miliband Debate Election 2015 Analysis - Labour Spending, Debt and Economic Collapse (3541 Reads)
26 Mar 2015 - SNP Economic Fantasy Land of Cutting the Deficit AND Increasing Spending! (1778 Reads)
24 Mar 2015 - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail, SNP Insurgency Catastrophe - Video (3193 Reads)
08 Mar 2015 - Vote Labour Get SNP Catastrophe - General Election 2015 Forecast - Grand Coalition Possible (4937 Reads)
05 Mar 2015 - UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Immigration Crisis, SNP Insurgency and Housing Mini-Boom (3606 Reads)
28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? (10655 Reads)
28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others (11079 Reads)
16 Feb 2015 - SNP-Syriza Labour Coalition Government Election Catastrophe, Debt Binge Before Breakup (6635 Reads)

Opinion Pollster Seats Forecasts

	Market Oracle	May2015 .com	Electoralcalculus .co.uk	ElectionForecast .co.uk	The Guardian
	28th Feb	20th Apr	19th Apr	20th Apr	20th Apr
Conservative	296	271	282	281	270
Labour	262	273	280	275	271
SNP	35	55	48	43	55
Lib Dem	30	25	17	26	28
UKIP	5	3	1	1	4
Others	22	22	22	22	22

The opinion pollster seats forecasts convert into a virtually neck and neck average of 276 for Conservatives 275 for Labour. The calculations for what form a coalition government could take become extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to a disastrous outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists i.e.

Conservatives + Lib Dems (24) = 300 - FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 308 - FAIL

Whilst Labour + Lib Dems (24) = 299 - FAIL

Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome is one that involves the SNP i.e. Labour + SNP (50) =325 - SUCCESS

The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.

May2015.com (New Statesman)

	MO 28th Feb	20th Apr	12th Apr	7th Apr	31st Mar	28th Mar	21st Mar	12th Mar	5th Mar	26th Feb	10th Feb
Conservative	296	271	267	271	278	271	274	281	255	270	270
Labour	262	273	277	273	265	273	271	263	283	271	272
SNP	35	55	54	54	55	55	55	55	55	56	56
Lib Dem	30	25	26	26	25	24	24	24		26	25
UKIP	5	3	3	3	4	3	3	4		4	4
Others	22	22	22	22	22	22	22

Keeps flip flopping between Labour and Conservative in the lead and no greater distance than 10 seats from 275.

Electoralcalculus.co.uk

	MO 28th Feb	19th Apr	12th Apr	7th Apr	29th Mar	22nd Mar	14th Mar	9th Mar	27th Feb	30th Jan
Conservative	296	282	277	275	274	267	262	267	265	265
Labour	262	280	284	286	287	300	301	298	301	297
SNP	35	48	48	48	48	48	46	55	46	50
Lib Dem	30	17	17	17	17	17	17		15	17
UKIP	5	1	2	2	2	1	1		1	1
Others	22	22	22	22	22	22

Have consistently exhibited a strong bias towards Labour which has been slowly eroding over time that has just now put the Conservatives marginally in the lead.

ElectionForecast.co.uk

	MO 28th Feb	20th Apr	13th Apr	8th Apr	30th Mar	22nd Mar	11th Mar	25th Feb	13th Feb
Conservative	296	281	283	287	282	286	295	284	280
Labour	262	275	274	270	281	276	267	279	283
SNP	35	43	42	43	36	39	42	39	37
Lib Dem	30	26	27	27	27	26	24	25	27
UKIP	5	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2
Others	22	22	22	22	23	22

Tends to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead, so tends to most closely reflect my own long standing forecast.

The Guardian

	MO 28th Feb	20th Apr	13th Apr	8th Apr	31st Mar	29th Mar	18th Mar	11th Mar	27th Feb	28th Jan
Conservative	296	270	271	272	278	275	277	279	276	273
Labour	262	271	271	273	271	271	269	266	271	273
SNP	35	55	51	51	50	53	53	52	51	49
Lib Dem	30	28	28	28	25	25	25	27	27	28
UKIP	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	5
Others	22	22	22	22	22	22	22

After maintaining a continuous marginal advantage to the Conservatives over Labour has now swung in Labours favour, exhibiting no clear trend direction.

Seats Forecast Trend Analysis

Overall the opinion pollsters are currently trending marginally in favour of the Labour party which if the trend continues implies that Labour will just be the largest party on election day on about 280 seats against the Conservatives on about 270 seats which is contrary to my long standing forecast expectations for the Tories to lead on at least 296 seats.

Another continuing point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 48-55, against my expectations of just 35.

Conclusion

My long standing conclusion is that the opinion polls remain wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats I expect the Conservatives to win by a wide margin, who in my opinion could still even win an outright majority on May 7th. The obvious reason why is because come election day most people when faced with the stark choice of between gambling on Ed Milliband-Sturgeon Axis, will opt for a continuation of the steady as she goes Cameron-Clegg Coalition.

So today when polled, voters without giving too much thought will usually lean towards an opposition party, but come actually marking ones cross on election day then more thought will go into that decision, especially when English voters consider the ramifications of the SNP dictatorship for the next five years, something that pollsters are FAILING to pickup upon i.e. English fears of an Labour-SNP government that will encourage many floating voters to turn to the Conservatives and Lib Dems. Thus the real suicide note published today was probably that of the SNP as many English voters will have listened on with growing concern of the hell that Sturgeon who is not even standing for parliament will wreck on England.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:

28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win?
28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

Also see my recent video analysis that explains the UK housing crisis.

The bottom line is that the SNP high command may have mellowed their message in the run up to the election. However post election the SNP will ONLY act in the interests of Scotland, a defacto dictatorship imposed on England that not a single English voter will have voted for! This truly is a recipe for disaster as we may see a series of revolts amongst England's wage slaves in the awake of what would transpire. Though my consistent forecast is one of the SNP failing to win anywhere near the 55 seats that pollsters suggest, instead a Conservative led minority government is the most probable outcome.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50341.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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