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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

SNP Publish England's Suicide Note as Pollsters Still Forecast Labour-SNP Election Disaster

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 21, 2015 - 07:12 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The Scottish Nationalists published their "Stronger for Scotland" on the backs of a Weaker England Manifesto that laid out how a defacto SNP dictatorship over England would operate by effectively sucking the financial blood out of a weak Labour minority English government before achieving Independence, especially given the fact that Scotland dodged a bullet last September for if they had voted for Independence then given the subsequent oil price crash, Scotland today would be just as bankrupt as Greece is.


Key points of control over England are:

  • To go on an £180 billion debt fuelled spending spree on the backs of England's wage slaves, much of which will be funneled into Scotland.
  • Full fiscal autonomy for Scotland but SNP MP's will still be able to vote for tax hikes on English workers.
  • Scottish MP's WILL vote on English ONLY matters.
  • Scrap Trident whilst Russia saber rattles, holding defence spending to ransom if they do not get their way.

The whole manifesto reeks of the SNP wanting to have their revenge on England for having lost last Septembers Independence referendum. Which through extreme interference in English affairs, the SNP effectively seeks to destroy the United Kingdom from within and achieve Independence from within the carcass of a disintegrating UK as my following recent articles illustrate the disastrous consequences of a weak Labour government being held to ransom by the SNP -

Opinion Pollster Seats Forecasts

Market Oracle May2015 .com Electoralcalculus .co.uk ElectionForecast .co.uk The Guardian
 

28th Feb

20th Apr 19th Apr 20th Apr 20th Apr
Conservative 296 271 282 281 270
Labour 262 273 280 275 271
SNP 35 55 48 43 55
Lib Dem 30 25 17 26 28
UKIP 5 3 1 1 4
Others 22 22 22 22 22

 

The opinion pollster seats forecasts convert into a virtually neck and neck average of 276 for Conservatives 275 for Labour. The calculations for what form a coalition government could take become extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to a disastrous outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists i.e.

Conservatives + Lib Dems (24) = 300 - FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 308 - FAIL

Whilst Labour + Lib Dems (24) = 299 - FAIL

Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome is one that involves the SNP i.e. Labour + SNP (50) =325 - SUCCESS

The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.

May2015.com (New Statesman)

 

MO 28th Feb

20th Apr 12th Apr 7th Apr 31st Mar 28th Mar 21st Mar 12th Mar 5th Mar 26th Feb 10th Feb
Conservative 296 271 267 271 278 271 274 281 255 270 270
Labour 262 273 277 273 265 273 271 263 283 271 272
SNP 35 55 54 54 55 55 55 55 55 56 56
Lib Dem 30 25 26 26 25 24 24 24   26 25
UKIP 5 3 3 3 4 3 3 4   4 4
Others 22 22 22 22 22 22 22        

Keeps flip flopping between Labour and Conservative in the lead and no greater distance than 10 seats from 275.

Electoralcalculus.co.uk

 

MO 28th Feb

19th Apr 12th Apr 7th Apr 29th Mar 22nd Mar 14th Mar 9th Mar 27th Feb 30th Jan
Conservative 296 282 277 275 274 267 262 267 265 265
Labour 262 280 284 286 287 300 301 298 301 297
SNP 35 48 48 48 48 48 46 55 46 50
Lib Dem 30 17 17 17 17 17 17   15 17
UKIP 5 1 2 2 2 1 1   1 1
Others 22 22 22 22 22 22        

Have consistently exhibited a strong bias towards Labour which has been slowly eroding over time that has just now put the Conservatives marginally in the lead.

ElectionForecast.co.uk

 

MO 28th Feb

20th Apr 13th Apr 8th Apr 30th Mar 22nd Mar 11th Mar 25th Feb 13th Feb
Conservative 296 281 283 287 282 286 295 284 280
Labour 262 275 274 270 281 276 267 279 283
SNP 35 43 42 43 36 39 42 39 37
Lib Dem 30 26 27 27 27 26 24 25 27
UKIP 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
Others 22 22 22 22 23 22      

Tends to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead, so tends to most closely reflect my own long standing forecast.

The Guardian

 

MO 28th Feb

20th Apr 13th Apr 8th Apr 31st Mar 29th Mar 18th Mar 11th Mar 27th Feb 28th Jan
Conservative 296 270 271 272 278 275 277 279 276 273
Labour 262 271 271 273 271 271 269 266 271 273
SNP 35 55 51 51 50 53 53 52 51 49
Lib Dem 30 28 28 28 25 25 25 27 27 28
UKIP 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 5
Others 22 22 22 22 22 22 22      

After maintaining a continuous marginal advantage to the Conservatives over Labour has now swung in Labours favour, exhibiting no clear trend direction.

Seats Forecast Trend Analysis

Overall the opinion pollsters are currently trending marginally in favour of the Labour party which if the trend continues implies that Labour will just be the largest party on election day on about 280 seats against the Conservatives on about 270 seats which is contrary to my long standing forecast expectations for the Tories to lead on at least 296 seats.

Another continuing point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 48-55, against my expectations of just 35.

Conclusion

My long standing conclusion is that the opinion polls remain wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats I expect the Conservatives to win by a wide margin, who in my opinion could still even win an outright majority on May 7th. The obvious reason why is because come election day most people when faced with the stark choice of between gambling on Ed Milliband-Sturgeon Axis, will opt for a continuation of the steady as she goes Cameron-Clegg Coalition.

So today when polled, voters without giving too much thought will usually lean towards an opposition party, but come actually marking ones cross on election day then more thought will go into that decision, especially when English voters consider the ramifications of the SNP dictatorship for the next five years, something that pollsters are FAILING to pickup upon i.e. English fears of an Labour-SNP government that will encourage many floating voters to turn to the Conservatives and Lib Dems. Thus the real suicide note published today was probably that of the SNP as many English voters will have listened on with growing concern of the hell that Sturgeon who is not even standing for parliament will wreck on England.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

Also see my recent video analysis that explains the UK housing crisis.

The bottom line is that the SNP high command may have mellowed their message in the run up to the election. However post election the SNP will ONLY act in the interests of Scotland, a defacto dictatorship imposed on England that not a single English voter will have voted for! This truly is a recipe for disaster as we may see a series of revolts amongst England's wage slaves in the awake of what would transpire. Though my consistent forecast is one of the SNP failing to win anywhere near the 55 seats that pollsters suggest, instead a Conservative led minority government is the most probable outcome.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50341.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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