SNP Publish England's Suicide Note as Pollsters Still Forecast Labour-SNP Election DisasterElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 21, 2015 - 07:12 AM GMT
The Scottish Nationalists published their "Stronger for Scotland" on the backs of a Weaker England Manifesto that laid out how a defacto SNP dictatorship over England would operate by effectively sucking the financial blood out of a weak Labour minority English government before achieving Independence, especially given the fact that Scotland dodged a bullet last September for if they had voted for Independence then given the subsequent oil price crash, Scotland today would be just as bankrupt as Greece is.
Key points of control over England are:
- To go on an £180 billion debt fuelled spending spree on the backs of England's wage slaves, much of which will be funneled into Scotland.
- Full fiscal autonomy for Scotland but SNP MP's will still be able to vote for tax hikes on English workers.
- Scottish MP's WILL vote on English ONLY matters.
- Scrap Trident whilst Russia saber rattles, holding defence spending to ransom if they do not get their way.
The whole manifesto reeks of the SNP wanting to have their revenge on England for having lost last Septembers Independence referendum. Which through extreme interference in English affairs, the SNP effectively seeks to destroy the United Kingdom from within and achieve Independence from within the carcass of a disintegrating UK as my following recent articles illustrate the disastrous consequences of a weak Labour government being held to ransom by the SNP -
- 06 Apr 2015 - SNP Offers Labour Deadly Death Embrace Alliance, Holding England to Ransom, Destroy UK From Within (6768 Reads)
- 04 Apr 2015 - Labour Economic Collapse vs Coalition Recovery - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Video (3830 Reads)
- 03 Apr 2015 - Election 2015 Leaders Debate - Plaid Cymru Want to Follow SNP Example and Bankrupt England (1253 Reads)
- 03 Apr 2015 - Leaders Debate Election 2015 - Debt, Will Labour Bankrupt Britain Again? (1508 Reads)
- 01 Apr 2015 - Election Forecast 2015 - Coalition Economic Recovery vs Labour Collapse (4566 Reads)
- 31 Mar 2015 - Ed Miliband Debate Election 2015 Analysis - Labour Spending, Debt and Economic Collapse (3541 Reads)
- 26 Mar 2015 - SNP Economic Fantasy Land of Cutting the Deficit AND Increasing Spending! (1778 Reads)
- 24 Mar 2015 - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail, SNP Insurgency Catastrophe - Video (3193 Reads)
- 08 Mar 2015 - Vote Labour Get SNP Catastrophe - General Election 2015 Forecast - Grand Coalition Possible (4937 Reads)
- 05 Mar 2015 - UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Immigration Crisis, SNP Insurgency and Housing Mini-Boom (3606 Reads)
- 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? (10655 Reads)
- 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others (11079 Reads)
- 16 Feb 2015 - SNP-Syriza Labour Coalition Government Election Catastrophe, Debt Binge Before Breakup (6635 Reads)
Opinion Pollster Seats Forecasts
|Market Oracle||May2015 .com||Electoralcalculus .co.uk||ElectionForecast .co.uk||The Guardian|
|20th Apr||19th Apr||20th Apr||20th Apr|
The opinion pollster seats forecasts convert into a virtually neck and neck average of 276 for Conservatives 275 for Labour. The calculations for what form a coalition government could take become extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to a disastrous outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists i.e.
Conservatives + Lib Dems (24) = 300 - FAIL
Add DUP 8 seats = 308 - FAIL
Whilst Labour + Lib Dems (24) = 299 - FAIL
Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome is one that involves the SNP i.e. Labour + SNP (50) =325 - SUCCESS
The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.
May2015.com (New Statesman)
MO 28th Feb
|20th Apr||12th Apr||7th Apr||31st Mar||28th Mar||21st Mar||12th Mar||5th Mar||26th Feb||10th Feb|
Keeps flip flopping between Labour and Conservative in the lead and no greater distance than 10 seats from 275.
MO 28th Feb
|19th Apr||12th Apr||7th Apr||29th Mar||22nd Mar||14th Mar||9th Mar||27th Feb||30th Jan|
Have consistently exhibited a strong bias towards Labour which has been slowly eroding over time that has just now put the Conservatives marginally in the lead.
MO 28th Feb
|20th Apr||13th Apr||8th Apr||30th Mar||22nd Mar||11th Mar||25th Feb||13th Feb|
Tends to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead, so tends to most closely reflect my own long standing forecast.
MO 28th Feb
|20th Apr||13th Apr||8th Apr||31st Mar||29th Mar||18th Mar||11th Mar||27th Feb||28th Jan|
After maintaining a continuous marginal advantage to the Conservatives over Labour has now swung in Labours favour, exhibiting no clear trend direction.
Seats Forecast Trend Analysis
Overall the opinion pollsters are currently trending marginally in favour of the Labour party which if the trend continues implies that Labour will just be the largest party on election day on about 280 seats against the Conservatives on about 270 seats which is contrary to my long standing forecast expectations for the Tories to lead on at least 296 seats.
Another continuing point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 48-55, against my expectations of just 35.
My long standing conclusion is that the opinion polls remain wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats I expect the Conservatives to win by a wide margin, who in my opinion could still even win an outright majority on May 7th. The obvious reason why is because come election day most people when faced with the stark choice of between gambling on Ed Milliband-Sturgeon Axis, will opt for a continuation of the steady as she goes Cameron-Clegg Coalition.
So today when polled, voters without giving too much thought will usually lean towards an opposition party, but come actually marking ones cross on election day then more thought will go into that decision, especially when English voters consider the ramifications of the SNP dictatorship for the next five years, something that pollsters are FAILING to pickup upon i.e. English fears of an Labour-SNP government that will encourage many floating voters to turn to the Conservatives and Lib Dems. Thus the real suicide note published today was probably that of the SNP as many English voters will have listened on with growing concern of the hell that Sturgeon who is not even standing for parliament will wreck on England.
UK General Election Forecast 2015
In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:
- 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win?
- 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others
UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion
My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:
Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.
The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.
Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.
The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.
Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:
Also see my recent video analysis that explains the UK housing crisis.
The bottom line is that the SNP high command may have mellowed their message in the run up to the election. However post election the SNP will ONLY act in the interests of Scotland, a defacto dictatorship imposed on England that not a single English voter will have voted for! This truly is a recipe for disaster as we may see a series of revolts amongst England's wage slaves in the awake of what would transpire. Though my consistent forecast is one of the SNP failing to win anywhere near the 55 seats that pollsters suggest, instead a Conservative led minority government is the most probable outcome.
Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50341.html
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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