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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Protectionism

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Thursday, May 23, 2019

Trump's futile quest for a renminbi Plaza Accord  / Politics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recent US media reports claim China may depreciate its renminbi to cope with shrinking exports. Yet, economic realities are precisely the reverse. Worse, trade wars are about to hit American consumers.

Recently, the White House lifted tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, while targeting another $300 billion worth of Chinese imports for potential punitive tariffs.

As was to be expected, the renminbi depreciated from 6.7 to more than 6.9 against the US dollar, mainly on renewed trade tensions.

China retaliated by imposing duties on $60 billion of US goods, starting June 1. China could have retaliated hard, but opted for a mild response that highlights the importance of talks.
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Economics

Saturday, May 04, 2019

Trump Trade War Is Widening, Not Ending / Economics / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

Almost every day brings comforting news on the trade front. They’re talking! Someone went to Beijing! Someone else is optimistic!

The problem is, that’s just talk. The longer it goes on, the more tariffs damage the economy.

Let’s call tariffs what they are: import taxes. Maybe then the people who oppose all other taxes will stop thinking tariffs are somehow helpful.

There are better and less harmful ways to achieve our goals. But what you or I think doesn’t really matter.

President Trump likes tariffs, and current law lets him use a “national security” pretext to impose them.

So they will continue until he changes his mind, and there’s no sign he will.

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Economics

Sunday, April 14, 2019

From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, IMF cut global growth forecasts. As US-Sino trade talks will give way to next trade wars, new tariff wars will not resolve US deficits but will further impair global economic prospects.

Ever since the US-Sino trade talks began almost four months ago, the United States has pushed for a broad commitment focusing on China’s economic practices, including participation of U.S. firms in certain industries and protection of U.S. intellectual property rights (IPRs).

In a recent CNBC interview, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin claimed that the countries had “pretty much agreed” on an enforcement mechanism for a trade deal. After his meeting with the Chinese delegation last week, President Trump stated that negotiators may need four more weeks to package the deal.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Trump’s Trade War Is Nowhere Near Over / Stock-Markets / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

If you follow daily market action, you can tell investors don’t like tariffs or other trade restrictions.

Stock prices rise when it looks like US and Chinese negotiators are making progress. They fall when President Trump makes new threats or negotiations fall apart.

We’ve seen it dozens of times in the last year.

Lately, we see more celebrating. People seem to think some sort of trade war resolution is near—or at least an extension of last December’s truce.
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Politics

Friday, February 08, 2019

Science Says Protectionism Won’t Work / Politics / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

The simmering trade war is still... well, simmering. Markets rise and fall with each new rumor.

That’s an important change. It took months for investors to realize this wasn’t just another Trump threat. In fact, trade policies he thinks unfair have long been one of his sore spots. Now he can do something about them, and he’s surrounded himself with hardline advisors.

Unfortunately, victory is not at hand. More like the opposite:

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Economics

Saturday, December 29, 2018

How Trump’s Trade Policies Actually Damage the Economy / Economics / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

We have a temporary truce in the trade war.

No one is quite sure if it will last, especially financial markets. After a short-lived rally, they saw little to celebrate in the latest Trump-Xi meeting. 

The US and China have serious disputes. And I think tariffs are the wrong tool to solve them. So I’m not optimistic this break will accomplish much either. We’ll see.

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Politics

Sunday, December 23, 2018

President Trump's Trade Rubbish / Politics / Protectionism

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The U.S. trade war rages on. With each passing day, there is news about a flare up, primarily on the front where the United States and China are confronting each other. While these flare ups rattle the markets, they don’t seem to rattle President Xi or President Trump. Indeed, neither Xi nor Trump seem inclined to give ground. For his part, Trump has recently tasked Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative, to lead the U.S. in trade negotiations with China. And, Lightizer, having a long ultra-protectionist record, has a reputation for taking no prisoners in trade battles.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Four Reasons Why a US China Trade Deal Isn’t Coming This Weekend… / Stock-Markets / Protectionism

By: Graham_Summers

Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…

1)   The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.

2)   The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).

3)   The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.

4)   Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.

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Politics

Sunday, November 04, 2018

The USMCA Quest for ‘America First' World Trade / Politics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

The era of post-1945 multilateralism is fading. After the revised NAFTA, Trump's dream is U.S.-dominated world trade and the ‘America First’ Asian Century, says Dan Steinbock.

President Trump seeks to redefine all major free trade agreements on the basis of U.S. economic and geopolitical leverage.

In these efforts, the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) is likely to serve as a blueprint.

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Politics

Friday, October 26, 2018

The USMCA Quest for ‘America First' World Trade / Politics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

The era of post-1945 multilateralism is fading. After the revised NAFTA, Trump's dream is U.S.-dominated world trade and the ‘America First’ Asian Century, says Dan Steinbock.

President Trump seeks to redefine all major free trade agreements on the basis of U.S. economic and geopolitical leverage.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, October 12, 2018

Trump’s Tariffs Echo US Trade Policy That Led to the Great Depression / Economics / Protectionism

By: John_Mauldin

We all wonder if Trump’s trade actions are as random as they appear or if there is a broader strategy.

Some of my contacts argue that the relatively strong US economy allows the administration to take a harder line than would normally be advisable. We can ride out a trade war better than China can, the thinking goes.

This only works if the US economy keeps prospering long enough for the tariffs to make China bend.

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Politics

Thursday, October 11, 2018

The First Casualty of Trade War Is Truth / Politics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

As Trump tariffs continue to spread, an ideological war of words is redressing harsh protectionist realities. What is the state of Chinese growth amid the US tariffs? And what is the impact of the trade wars on global economic prospects?

Recently, US academic Yasheng Huang argued on Wall Street Journal that “Jack Ma is retiring. Is China’s economy losing steam?” By the same logic, Elon Musk’s forced resignation from Tesla would mean US slowdown.
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Economics

Thursday, October 04, 2018

How A Global Trade War Would Derail Economic Recovery Worldwide / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the international community is becoming more aware of the threat the U.S.-Sino trade war poses to global growth, what was originally a bilateral tariff conflict is spreading across regions.

During a press conference on September 26, President Donald Trump disclosed why he believes China, despite the U.S. tariff wars, respects him – because of his “very, very large brain.”

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Economics

Saturday, September 22, 2018

The Trade War With China Could Last A While / Economics / Protectionism

By: Harry_Dent

I agree with him!

The richest man in China, Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma, reckons the trade war is the beginning of a long-term battle for supremacy between China and the U.S.

He’s sees no effective short-term solution to this big global issue.

China needs to strengthen its economy to fulfill its long-term shift to stronger domestic consumption while focusing on the real global growth markets in Southeast Asia, India, and Africa.
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Economics

Thursday, September 13, 2018

The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

In few months, the Trump administration has undermined more than seven decades of U.S. free trade legacies. Who are the policymakers behind this reversal. Wat is their agenda? And why is steel their common denominator?

Recently, the Trump administration hammered a revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) by pressuring Mexico and then strong-arming Canada to the tentative deal. The White House’s objective is either to redefine the terms on the basis of U.S. economic leverage and unipolar geopolitics or - if that is not acceptable to other parties - to withdraw the U.S. from such FTAs. It is not “either you are with us or against us,” as in the Bush years, but “America First - or nothing.”

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Economics

Thursday, September 13, 2018

How Trump Tariffs Could Double America’s Trade Losses / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Trump tariffs are based on flawed doctrines, which could penalize the US as much as its trade deficits.

Last Friday, President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of the additional $200 billion that he said will likely be hit with import taxes in a matter of days.

If the tariff stakes will increase up to $500 billion, it could penalize Chinese GDP by 1%, but the US GDP, which is relatively more vulnerable, would suffer a net impact of 2% of GDP. In dollar terms, the consequent tariff damage could prove even higher than the current U.S. trade deficit with China and thus double the damage.

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Politics

Monday, September 03, 2018

Toward ‘America First’ NAFTA / Politics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Despite the Trump administration’s frantic last-minute efforts to hammer the NAFTA agreement, the attempt failed within the US timeline, so the talks continue. Why is the revised deal so important to the White House?

Last Friday, the trade talks between the United States and Canada broke off without an agreement.

The negotiations on the revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are not over, however. The talks continue and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will meet again Canada’s foreign minister Chrystia Freeland.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

TRADING THE GLOBAL FUTURE - Bad Timing / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

This is the first of a three-part series.
In less than two years, the Trump administration has undermined more than seven decades of U.S. free trade legacies. That is both a reflection of and a catalyst for the further erosion of globalization.

Yet, these trade wars did not come out of the blue. The path to the tariff wars is becoming increasingly difficult to reverse or slow down, and the timing of the trade war could not be worse. It is taking place at a historical moment when global economic integration could further stagnate or even fall apart.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

How US Trade War Is Spreading from Goods to Services / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Trump tariff wars are entering a new, far more dangerous phase. As the White House is expanding its tariff wars, collateral damage is about to spread from goods to services – much of it in the U.S.

After months of trade threats, the Trump administration announced its 25% tariff on $34 billion of Chinese imports effective in early July, while threatening levies on another $16 billion of imports. To defend its sovereign interest, China responded with 25% tariffs on $34 billion of US imports and recently imposed an additional tariff of 25% on $16 billion of US imports effective on August 23.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 20, 2018

Surviving a Trade War in the Age of Trump and Brexit / Stock-Markets / Protectionism

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

President Donald Trump keeps surprising the world about this policies. The stance that the US took for years is now changing under his administration. Countries that used to be allies of the United States are now seemingly considered enemies. He has launched trade wars against Canada, China, and even the EU.

Brexit is another problem that has a global impact. There is no final decision yet on how Brexit will happen, and what terms the EU and the UK will agree. These significant global changes have impacted a lot of business owners, especially those who are just starting out.

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