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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Monday, May 19, 2008

China the Orwellian Puzzle Palace / Currencies / China Currency Yuan

By: Black_Swan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKey News - Japanese manufacturers turned pessimistic about business conditions for the first time in five years in May as high raw material prices and a U.S. slowdown eroded sentiment, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.(Reuters)

China should “disguise its ambition and hide its claws.” Attributed to Deng Xiaoping

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Currencies

Sunday, May 18, 2008

How the Recession Will Impact the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack Crooks writes: Too severe, or not too severe; that is the question. I'm talking about the U.S. recession that we're already in, about to be in, or hoping to avoid.

At this point it depends a lot on how you approach the subject, but assuming for a moment that recession is inevitable, analysts and economists are asking: How much will growth contract? Can Mr. U.S. consumer muddle through, or will he stumble and fall? And how much have financial markets already discounted an official recession?

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Currencies

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Australian Dollar vs. New Zealand Dollar: No Longer a One Way Bet Against the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Black_Swan

There’ve been a couple noticeable changes since the U.S. dollar index marked its most recent all‐time low on March 17th. Traders’ and investors’ appetite has been all mixed up.

The euro continued to rally to the $1.60 mark before falling about 5% versus the buck. It’s yet to recover. And I imagine this pair is under heavy scrutiny in determining the legitimacy of the dollar’s rally.

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Currencies

Sunday, May 11, 2008

US Dollar Bottoming Against Major Currencies? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe dollar is gripping tightly to its two-week rally even though the fundamentals have changed very little. So what's behind the market's sentiment shift?

Less-dovish rhetoric from the Fed? That could be part of it. After the FOMC meeting last Wednesday, the Fed is now expected to stop cutting rates for the foreseeable future.

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Currencies

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Beware of the US Dollar's Fake Rally / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon't mistake the U.S. dollar's recent rally for strength. If anything, it's a head fake of legendary proportions. In fact, the dollar's recent run-up is actually a warning that risks are escalating.

To better understand what I mean here, let's look at the greenback's recent performance against the euro. After bottoming at an all-time low of $1.6019 versus the euro on April 22, the dollar has soared nearly 4% and was trading at $1.5428 per euro early yesterday (Wednesday).

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Currencies

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Crude Oil - US Dollar Divergence / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Black_Swan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe got a fairly decent level of angst mail yesterday, in relation to the series of charts John Ross put together, suggesting maybe the market is telling us the buck has bottomed. Some of the usual conspiracy kooks and some very real and solid reasons why the buck will make new lows again were included in our email box. Thank you to all for your feedback. We always appreciate it and learn from it.

One of our readers asked the following excellent question: “[B]ut how to explain dollar/oil to the crowd following that correlation?”

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Currencies

Sunday, May 04, 2008

US Dollar Long-term Cyclic Trend Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Tim_Wood

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCycles are really just another way of looking at various trends of various degrees. Also, cycles in the market are really no different than many other cycles in nature. As an example, sometimes we have an early spring and sometimes it's late. Sometimes a particular bird's migration is earlier than normal and sometimes it can be a bit later than normal. In some winters the northern states experience more snow than in other years. Sometimes we have very active hurricane seasons and sometime we don't. The same is true with cycles in the market as they too, fluctuate in duration and intensity.

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Currencies

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

How the FOMC Interest Rate Meeting Will Impact US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack Crooks writes: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week. As you might imagine, a lively topic of conversation this weekend among currency traders is the direction of the infamous Fed Funds rate.

The obvious question leading up to Tuesday's interest rate decision: What are the implications of this FOMC meeting on the U.S. dollar? More specifically, has the Fed Funds rate found a bottom, or does the U.S. central bank have more work to do?

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Currencies

Monday, April 28, 2008

British Pound: RELATIVELY Strong … / Currencies / British Pound

By: Black_Swan

We’ve been dogging on the pound for a series of months now. And for the most part, we expect to be dogging on it for months to come. Basically, weak economic data points are going to weigh on Bank of England and their interest rate policies. That, in turn, should undermine the pound. But ...

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Currencies

Thursday, April 24, 2008

“Hallelujah” for the Falling US Dollar?! / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Michael_Pento

Hallelujah, of course, is a word of praise. To use that word to describe the fact that the USD has lost 40% of its value in the last 5 years, however, is economic blasphemy. Yet last week on television I had the pleasure of debating a well known strategist on the fallout of our crumbling currency and his angelic chorus was heard praising the falling dollar because of his belief that it would boost exports, rescue the economy from recession and encourage future GDP growth. Truly, “Hallelujah for the falling dollar!” is exactly what he exclaimed.

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Currencies

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Gold US Dollar Trend Divergence-Trading in this Market is No Kids’ Game … / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Black_Swan

This morning, for our Currency Currents Members, we delved upon the divergence between gold and the U.S. dollar. Ultimately, we feel this relationship could prove crucial to the direction the currency market takes now and a short ways down the road.

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Currencies

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Elliott Wave on Crude and the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Dan_Stinson

Short Term Forecast Update - With a little more action in place, we have an update on the USD and Crude.

US Dollar
The USD appears as an ending diagonal triangle pattern, currently in wave 4 of wave (5). The last update indicated that the USD was possibly in a (contracting) triangle but it will likely complete as an (ending diagonal) triangle.

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Currencies

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Gold Highs, US Dollar Lows Not for Long / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a fascinating technical situation in the euro-$ vs. the pattern exhibited by spot gold prices. All of the action in the euro from March 17 has carved out a "wedge" type of formation, with flag tops and rising lows, which should resolve itself in one pop to the upside into new high territory above 1.5915 prior to a powerful and nasty downside reversal.

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Currencies

Monday, April 14, 2008

Currency Snapshot- Tough Luck for the Canadian Buck… / Currencies / Canadian $

By: Black_Swan

This time last year we were talking about the brilliant run the Canadian dollar was making towards dollar‐parity. Sure enough, in dramatic fashion, the Loonie crossed the $1 mark.

But for much of that historic run, the Canadian dollar traded in a tight negative correlation to the U.S. dollar – the dollar went down as the Loonie went up, or vice versa. It was in August of last year that the correlation began to fall apart. The red vertical line in the following chart marks the spot ...

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Currencies

Saturday, April 12, 2008

Is a Mexican Peso Currency Correction Overdue? / Currencies / Mexico

By: Black_Swan

While perusing the latest Commitment of Traders Report, published on April 1st, we noticed that among the punters, like us, there was a 95% bullish reading i.e. 95% long open interest says players are positioned for the peso to move higher against the US dollar. This seems a fairly concentrated one-way bet. Often one-way bets lead to corrections, or intermediate-term trend changes.

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Currencies

Thursday, April 10, 2008

US Dollar Crunch Time / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Black_Swan

‘Dollar’ and ‘Troubles’: two words that seem to go hand‐in‐hand these days. Well, if you’re disturbed about how poorly the dollar stacks up against major world currencies, I have bad news. Things could get much worse.

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Currencies

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Has the US Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack Crooks writes: "A bottom in the dollar? Are you kidding me?" are just two of the incredulous questions you might be asking after reading this title. All snickering aside, I do think it's time to start considering something as outlandish as that.

Despite still strong evidence to the contrary, there is compelling logic to suggest that, yes, the buck has bottomed. And if that is in fact the case, a sustained rally in the greenback would certainly present a rather lucrative proposition. Today, we'll delve into that very scenario.

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Currencies

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Jim Rogers: More Pain for the Greenback, and the Failure of the Federal Reserve / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSINGAPORE - By bailing out Wall Street and applying "band-aids" to the economy, the U.S. Federal Reserve may well be causing its own downfall - even as it hastens the demise of the greenback as a viable global currency, investment guru Jim Rogers told Money Morning during an exclusive interview.

Because of such strategic missteps, U.S. consumers could be facing a long and painful economic malaise, similar to the "lost decade" of 1990s Japan, or the stagflation-riddled 1970s in the United States, Rogers said.

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Currencies

Saturday, April 05, 2008

US Dollar Major Bottom Forecast Within Next Two Weeks / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Marty_Chenard

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis morning's update will look at two U.S. Dollar charts ... short term and long term.

The first is the weekly chart of U.S. Dollar going back to 2005.  Very clearly, you can see that it has been in a  down trend since 2005.  Its descending channel has held steadily all the way down.

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Currencies

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

What's Up with Asian Currencies? / Currencies / Asian Economies

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the U.S. dollar reaching new lows versus hard currencies, many are waiting for Asian currencies to catch up. Why hasn't this happened, and will it happen? The short answer is: it might, but be patient and don't bet your farm on it.

To understand Asian dynamics, let's first look at Europe. Remember how many ridiculed European growth earlier this decade? A key factor was the European Central Bank's (ECB's) refusal to jump on the growth bandwagon. As a result, consumer savings went up in Europe, while it headed down in the U.S. While the U.S. economy became increasingly dependent on credit expansion, consumer spending and inflows of money from abroad to support its current account deficit , the euro-zone was far more balanced.

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