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While Hurricane Threatens Supply, Low Demand Keeps Natural Gas and UNG ETF Cheap

Commodities / Natural Gas Aug 18, 2009 - 02:00 PM GMT

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSo it is hurricane season again in the Gulf of Mexico, and what is happening to natural gas prices -- and the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (NYSE: UNG)? Nuttin! Absolutely nuttin! Huh? How can such a cheap commodity get EVEN cheaper given such a threat to supply? Just maybe the problem is NOT supply.


Maybe the real problem is DEMAND-- or lack thereof? Perhaps a hurricane that knocks out power to a portion of the Gulf states creates a bigger demand problem by eliminating more of it than the weak economic conditions already has? The damage will take time- measured in weeks- to get back "on line," which will create (albeit artificial) excess... excess... excess nat gas supplies for the local market to absorb (read; dump on the market).

So, in a very counter-intuitive sort of way, the threat of a hurricane NOW actually has the potential to pressure nat gas prices. What we need is for the ECONOMY to create natural demand that will reduce inventory, AND THEN, at that point, a hurricane will elicit a bullish market response. With the above in mind, I have no idesire to buy the UNG here, nor do I intend to sell short. Time to watch only.

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By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of

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