Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle SeasonalStock Market Awaiting the Bonds Panic to trigger QE4Ever - 30th April 25 Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Awaiting the Bonds Panic to trigger QE4Ever - 30th April 25
US Bond Market Panic Continues Towards May Expected Japanese Rate Hike Volatility Spike - 24th April 25
Stock Market Tarrified as President Dump Risks Turning Recession into Stagflationary Depression - 21st April 25
President Dump Delivers BEAR MARKET - Stock Market Battles Between Order and Chaos - 7th April 25
Stocks Bull Market End Game Bear Start Strategy - 20th Mar 25
Gold and System Collapse: Charting the Bank Run of the Mighty US Dollar - 20th Mar 25
Tesla's Troubles — Is it Musk or is it More? - 20th Mar 25
The Stock Market Bear / Crash indicator Window - 9th Mar 25
Big US Tech Stocks Fundamentals - 9th Mar 25
No Winners When The Inflation Balloon Pops - 9th Mar 25

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Daily Economic Outlook, U.S. Non Farm Payroll Potential For Surprise

Economics / US Economy Sep 04, 2009 - 03:35 AM GMT

By: Lloyds_TSB

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleData from the US this week, notably the stronger-than-expected outcomes of the manufacturing and services ISM surveys, have raised the likelihood that the economy has returned to growth in the current quarter, ending the longest contraction since quarterly records started in 1947. However, the focus today is squarely on the labour market, an area of the economy that will significantly lag the wider recovery and represents the main downside risk to sustained economic growth.


The higher-than-expected outcome for private sector job losses shown in the August ADP Employer Services survey, albeit lower than last month at 298,000 compared with a decline of 360,000 in July, has tempered market speculation of another major upside surprise from today's NFP result. However, the ADP outcome ahead of the NFP report in July also came in weaker than expected but still the fall in NFP of 247,000 contrasted sharply with the median estimate of 325,000.

The upshot is that today's number could still surprise, with the range of economist forecasts between -115,000 and -365,000 at the start of the week. We look for a decline of 260,000. There will also be considerable interest in the household survey unemployment rate after it showed an unexpected fall to 9.4% in July, in part reflecting lower labour force participation. We forecast a rise to 9.6% in August, with the prospect that it will ultimately exceed 10% before easing back in 2010. The considerable slack in the labour market suggests continued downward pressure on incomes as well as inflation.

There were no surprises from the ECB yesterday, with its key interest rates left unchanged and confirmation that the rate for the next 12- month longer-term repo (on September 30) will remain the prevailing rate on the main refinancing operations.

Trevor Williams, Chief Economist, Corporate Markets

For more information: Emile Abu-Shakra Manager, Media Relations Lloyds TSB Group Media Relations Tel 020 7356 1878 http://www.lloydstsbcorporatemarkets.com/

Lloyds TSB Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in