Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Ukraine Preface, the Emerging Dynamics Of Petro-Yuan Standard - Jim_Willie_CB
2. Speculations Reversed - Gold Price Stealth Rally 2014 - Peter_Schiff
3.Bubbleberg News Drivel Masquerading as Financial Reporting - David A. Stockman
4.Nationwide UK House Prices 9.5% Inflation, Housing Market on Steroids, Help to Buy Anniversary - Nadeem_Walayat
5.How to Profit from Palladium Huge Price Surge… - Peter Krauth
6.UK Home Solar Panel Installations Good or Bad for House Buying and Selling? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Global Gold Manipulation Update - MAP Wave Analysis - Marc_Horn
8.Ukraine Capital Controls and 200% Inflation But Still In Better Shape Than US! - Jeff_Berwick
9.The Rise of a Euro-Chino-Russian Superpower - Stephan Bogner
10.Across Europe Secession Movements Intensify - BATR
Last 72 Hrs
Glaring Q.E. Failure Spotted - Money Velocity Is Falling Rapidly - 16th Apr 14
High-Frequency Insider Trading - 16th Apr 14
Gold Prices 2014: Do What Goldman Does, Not What It Says - 16th Apr 14
These CEOs Will Make Investors Rich - 16th Apr 14
Climate Change, Central Banking And The Faustian Bargain - 16th Apr 14
Every Central Bank for Itself - 16th Apr 14
Social Security, U.S. Treasury Stealing Every Last Penny From Americans - 16th Apr 14
Ukraine Falling to Economic Warfare and Its Own Missteps - 16th Apr 14
Silver and Gold Miners Still Disappoint - 16th Apr 14
Silver, Gold, and What Could Go Wrong - 15th Apr 14
How I Intend to Survive the Meltdown of America - 15th Apr 14
France Wakes Up To The Multicultural Multi-Threat - 15th Apr 14
The Real Purpose Of QE - It’s Not Employment - 15th Apr 14
Peak Coal - 15th Apr 14
Flash Crash, Rigged Markets - What’s the Frequency Zenith? - 15th Apr 14
Forecasting U.S. GDP Growth: A Look at WSJ Economists’ Collective Crystal Ball - 15th Apr 14
Stock Market - Is Something Nasty About to Happen? - 15th Apr 14
How to Trade Your Way To Freedom - 15th Apr 14
Understanding (and Ignoring) the Media Bandwagon Against Gold - 15th Apr 14
When Stock Market Bubble Crashes, Take Refuge in Gold Stocks - 15th Apr 14
Bitcoin Price Strong Appreciation to Be Followed by Declines? - 14th Apr 14
Greece, Turkey, We're Shuffling The Cards on Our Europe Investing Play - 14th Apr 14
Silver Price Ultimate Rally: When Paper Assets Collapse - 14th Apr 14
Get Your Share of an Extra Trillion Euros Money Printing - 14th Apr 14
Fourth Reversals in The Gold and Silver Charts - 14th Apr 14
Stock Market Nearing Rally in a Downtrend - 14th Apr 14
London House Prices Bubble, Debt Slavery, Crimea 2.0 - Russia Ukraine Annexation - 14th Apr 14
Four Horsemen - Top Economists Explain the Source of Our Economic Crisis - Video - 13th Apr 14
Peak Oil And Global Warming – A Question Of Culture - 13th Apr 14
The Global Banking Game Is Rigged, and the FDIC Is Suing - 13th Apr 14
College Degree Earnings Propaganda - 13th Apr 14 - Andrew Syrios
Stock Market Potential Diagonal Triangle Pattern Forming - 12th Apr 14
Ukraine Crisis – Military Flash Drive Thinking - 12th Apr 14
Gold And Silver – 2014 Coud Be A Yawner; Be Prepared For A Surprise - 12th Apr 14
Gold Preparing to Launch as U.S. Dollar Drops to Key Support - 12th Apr 14
Manipulated Stocks Markets And The Empty Bag - 12th Apr 14
Stock Market - It’s Not Time to Panic… It’s Time to Buy - 12th Apr 14
Doctor Doom on the Fiat Money Empire Coming Financial Crisis - 12th Apr 14
Sheffield, Rotherham Roma Benefits Plague, Ch5 Documentary Gypsies on Benefits & Proud - 11th Apr 14
This Bitcoin Price Rally Might Be a Fake One - 11th Apr 14
GDX Gold Stocks Benchmark - 11th Apr 14
Silver Price Finally Outperforms – How Bullish Is That? - 11th Apr 14
Limits to Employment Participation, and Societal Change - 11th Apr 14
US Moves To Restrict Travelers Taking International Flights - 11th Apr 14
Bill Gross to El-Erian: 'Come on, Mohamed, Tell Us Why' You Resigned PIMCO - 11th Apr 14
British Pound GBP/USD - Double Top or Further Rally? - 11th Apr 14
Don't Miss the Boat on Big Biotech Catalysts: Keith Markey - 11th Apr 14
Russia Invaded Crimea and These US Energy Companies Made a Killing - 11th Apr 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Economy

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Forecasting U.S. GDP Growth: A Look at WSJ Economists’ Collective Crystal Ball / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: One of the big economic numbers this month will be the Q1 Advance Estimate for GDP, due out on April 30th. With this morning’s first glimpse of March Retail Sales now in hand, let’s take a look at Q1 GDP forecasts from the latest Wall street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month. For some context, Q4 2013 Real GDP went from 3.2% in the Advance Estimate to 2.4% in the Second Estimate to 2.6% in the Third Estimate. And of course it will be subject to an annual revision in July.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

The Huge Economic Indicator Everyone Misses / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: If you like bull markets, you better hope Janet Yellen is one of the most talkative Fed Chairs in history.

It's not that she's going to say anything brilliant or insightful, just that she says something - anything - on a regular basis.

You see, there's a direct relationship between how much she says and what's happening in the markets. What she says is almost completely irrelevant.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, March 21, 2014

Rising Borrowing Costs Could Threaten US Economic Recovery and USD Rally / Economics / US Economy

By: MahiFX

There's an inconvenient truth, which is that many western countries are so heavily indebted that they cannot afford rising interest rates, yet that is exactly what is starting to happen in the US and long before the US Federal Reserve tighten official rates.

Steadily rising interest rates should be supportive for USD as the Fed normalises its monetary policy. Yet the very process of winding down quantitative easing could be sowing the seeds for the next US economic downturn and a weaker USD. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, March 08, 2014

Weakening U.S. Economy Weather or Not? / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Everyone agrees that the winter just now winding down (hopefully) has been brutal for most Americans. And while it's easy to conclude that the Polar Vortex has been responsible for an excess of school shutdowns and ice related traffic snarls, it's much harder to conclude that the it's responsible for the economic vortex that appears to have swallowed the American economy over the past three months. But this hasn't stopped economists, Fed officials, and media analysts from making this unequivocal assertion. In reality the weather is not what's ailing us. It's just the latest straw being grasped at by those who believe that the phony recovery engineered by the Fed is real and lasting. The April thaw is not far off. Unfortunately the economy is likely to stay frozen for some time to come.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, March 03, 2014

Is Bad Weather Behind Weak US Economic Trends? / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

Some key US economic data shows visible weakening. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index slumped to 46 in February from 56 in January.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Empire State general business conditions index fell to 4.48 in February from 12.51 the month before.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, March 01, 2014

Do U.S. Economic Reports Mean Anything This Time? / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Some of the Federal Reserve’s districts compile and release monthly economic reports for their regions.

In the last week or two, those reports were that the Fed’s Empire State (NY) Mfg Index plunged from 12.5 in January to 4.5 in February. The Fed’s Philadelphia Region Index plunged from a positive reading of + 9.4 in January to - 6.3 in February. The Dallas Fed’s Mfg Index dropped from 3.8 in January to 0.3 in February. The Richmond Fed’s Index plummeted from +12 in January to -6 in February.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, February 24, 2014

Disappointing U.S. Economic Data - Whether or Not it's the Weather / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street and Washington have summarily dismissed the recent spate of disappointing economic data by claiming it is solely based upon the weather. The equity market is 100% convinced that winter is to blame for the faltering economy; and that even if stocks have it all wrong, Ms. Yellen and co. will immediately print enough money to make everything ok.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, February 21, 2014

U.S. Economy Weather Impact Narrative Getting Confusing / Economics / US Economy

By: Ronan_Keenan

The “weather impact” debate has been ongoing for much of this year and looks set to continue for a while longer. Initially there seemed to be a clear narrative that colder-than-normal temperatures were slowing economic activity and markets seemed to gladly discount weak figures. But several data releases this week have brought confusion to the tidy story.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 08, 2014

U.S. Economic Outlook Is About More Than Just Jobs / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

The Labor Department’s employment report for January was the second straight monthly negative surprise in that area of the economy. It showed only 113,000 new jobs were created in January, well short of the consensus forecast for 190,000.

As they did in reaction to December’s dismal jobs report, Wall Street analysts are blaming it on the weather.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Monday, February 03, 2014

The Real State of the Union / Politics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Before anyone gets all bent out of shape, this is NOT going to be a political essay. To restate my position on the issue of politics, I couldn’t care less what group or party anyone belongs to, but rather, about how they do the job they were entrusted with doing. In my lifetime we’ve had but a few lawmakers who truly did their jobs with the trust and stewardship of their constituents in mind. That group grows fewer as we egress from the former America into this brave new world of offshoring, economic microcephalism, and blatant malfeasance.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, January 20, 2014

The Retail Economic Death Rattle / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

“I was part of that strange race of people aptly described as spending their lives doing things they detest, to make money they don’t want, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t like.”Emile Gauvreau

If ever a chart provided unequivocal proof the economic recovery storyline is a fraud, the one below is the smoking gun. November and December retail sales account for 20% to 40% of annual retail sales for most retailers. The number of visits to retail stores has plummeted by 50% since 2010. Please note this was during a supposed economic recovery. Also note consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP. Also note credit card debt outstanding is 7% lower than its level in 2010 and 16% below its peak in 2008. Retailers like J.C. Penney, Best Buy, Sears, Radio Shack and Barnes & Noble continue to report appalling sales and profit results, along with listings of store closings. Even the heavyweights like Wal-Mart and Target continue to report negative comp store sales. How can the government and mainstream media be reporting an economic recovery when the industry that accounts for 70% of GDP is in free fall? The answer is that 99% of America has not had an economic recovery. Only Bernanke’s 1% owner class have benefited from his QE/ZIRP induced stock market levitation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, January 13, 2014

Pathetic December U.S. Job Numbers Proof 2014 Will Be a Challenging Year / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: What happened?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that only 74,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in December. Most economists were expecting 200,000 jobs to be created in December—way off reality. The December increase in U.S. payrolls was the slowest pace in almost three years.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 10, 2014

What Really Bothers Me About the So-Called U.S. Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: On the surface, the data suggest there’s economic growth in the U.S. economy. We hear that the unemployment rate is declining. Incomes in the U.S. economy are increasing. Consumers are buying more and more goods—as a result, we are going to see higher U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). Growth is intact...right?

Sadly, when I examine the details, I really question if this is all a mirage. Is there really economic growth in the U.S. economy?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, January 06, 2014

Economic Indicators Pointing to Weaker U.S. Economic Growth in 2014 / Economics / US Economy

By: DailyGainsLetter

John Paul Whitefoot writes: If the stock market is an indicator of U.S. economic health, then 2013 was a stellar year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out 2013 with a 26% gain. The S&P 500 was up 29%, while the NASDAQ Composite was up 34%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Sunday, January 05, 2014

The Case of the Missing U.S. Economic Recovery / Politics / US Economy

By: Paul_Craig_Roberts

Have you seen the economic recovery? I haven’t either. But it is bound to be around here somewhere, because the National Bureau of Economic Research spotted it in June 2009, four and one-half years ago.

It is a shy and reclusive recovery, like the “New Economy” and all those promised new economy jobs. I haven’t seen them either, but we know they are here, somewhere, because the economists said so.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Economic Forecasts and Drivers 2014 - The Fed, Inflation-Deflation, Interest Rates, Housing and Speculation / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

It's that time of year again, when we begin to think of what the next one will bring. I will be doing my annual forecast issue next week, but my friend Gary Shilling has already done his and has graciously allowed me to use a shortened version of his letter as this week's Thoughts from the Frontline. So without any further ado, let's jump right to Gary's look at where we are and where we're going.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

U.S. Economy - The ‘Real’ Goods on the Latest Durable Goods Data / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Earlier today I posted an update on the December Advance Report on November Durable Goods Orders. This Census Bureau series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation.

Let’s now review the same data with two adjustments. In the charts below the red line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau’s monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index, chained in today’s dollar value. This gives us the “real” durable goods orders per capita. The snapshots below offer an alternate historical context in which to evaluate the standard reports on the nominal monthly data.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, December 12, 2013

U.S. Sub-Par Economic Recovery With a Propensity Towards a Downturn / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

It is a regular ritual for major US businesses: the end-of-the-quarter conference call in which the CEO dissects what just happened and gives us some insight on what to expect for the future of the company. My good friend Rich Yamarone, the chief economist at Bloomberg, is the creator of the Bloomberg Orange Book, a compilation of macroeconomic anecdotes gleaned from the comments CEOs and CFOs make on their quarterly earnings conference calls. He not only sits and listens to them present their views, he also picks up the phone and talks to them. He is very clued in on what's happening in the real world of business.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Did the U.S. Government Shutdown Help the Economy? / Stock-Markets / US Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

From New Delhi to San Francisco to London, and finally back in San Antonio, I’ve been communicating one consistent theme to investors: Follow the money.

What’s really important in following the money is for investors to not get caught up in the negative web spun by the media. There’s a lot of drama these days about Obamacare and Washington dysfunction. Take the government shutdown in October, when the House and Senate fought over the debt ceiling. Economic data wasn’t released, services were halted, national parks were closed, and “non-essential” government workers were told to stay home.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, December 07, 2013

Will The Real U.S. Economy Please Stand Up? / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Are economic reports finally indicating an acceleration in the economic recovery - or not?

Markets need to know. Investors need to know. Most importantly, the Fed needs to know.

The prognosis changes from month to month, even week to week, and this week even day to day, as expectations for Fed action move from taper on, to taper off, to taper on and back again.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, December 05, 2013

Three U.S. Economic Charts Obama Hopes You'll Never See / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Today I'm going to show you three charts Obama hoped you'd never see.

Brace yourself.

You're about to get a very different view of the "recovery" picture that the administration keeps painting for us.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 22, 2013

Economic Recovery Doubtful as New Survey Shows Manufacturing Downturn / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: After so many years following the Great Recession, it’s still quite astounding that job creation remains so slow. This obviously indicates the lack of economic growth, even after trillions of dollars have been pumped into the U.S. economy.

While there has been a lot of optimistic talk in the mainstream media, there have been an increasing number of data points indicating America’s economic growth is still very fragile.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Saturday, November 09, 2013

Peter Schiff Warns U.S. Econcomy Will Soon Collapse! Be Prepared! - Video / Politics / US Economy

By: Videos

Fall of America & Fall of the dollar – US Economy Will Soon Collapse! Be Prepared!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 01, 2013

Why U.S. Consumer Confidence is Falling at an Alarming Rate / Economics / US Economy

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: Consumer spending is very critical to the U.S. economy, as it makes up a significant portion of the gross domestic product (GDP). If consumer spending declines, then U.S. GDP growth becomes very questionable; when it increases, it can provide an idea about where the U.S. economy is heading.

I look at consumer confidence as one of the indicators of consumer spending. The logic behind this is that if consumers are confident, they will most likely spend more, compared to when they are pessimistic.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Thursday, October 24, 2013

What an 81% Increase in Food Stamp Use Really Means for the U.S. Economy / Politics / US Economy

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: Each day, there’s growing evidence that suggests the American economy isn’t experiencing any economic growth. Unequal job creation is just one of the main topics discussed in the mainstream, but sadly, there are many other facts and figures that show a gruesome image of the U.S. economy as well.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, September 30, 2013

America to Become the Next Poland? / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: I want to share with my readers a chart that I find very interesting. The chart below (courtesy of our research group) compares the number of Americans on food stamps since the so-called recovery began in the S&P 500.

As you can see for yourself, they are following the same trajectory! Our research shows that since late 2009, for every one-percent increase in food stamps usage in the U.S., the S&P 500 increased two percent!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Wall Street Mirrors Sentiments of Main Street / Stock-Markets / US Economy

By: Submissions

Eleonora  writes: Homeowners face uncertainty moving forward! Major developments are taking place in the banking sector across the United States. The mortgage boom is now a thing of the past. More and more banks across the United States are closing their facilities and financial units that traditionally worked with customers to refinance their home loans. In fact, one of the major lenders – JP Morgan – laid-off an estimated 2,000 workers during the month of August. 50% of the workers were in the home loans departments.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Economic Advantage America / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Today's Outside the Box, which comes to us from good friend Gary Shilling, is unusual because that old confirmed bear is waxing positively bullish about the future prospects of the US. In doing so he mirrors my own views. It is just a matter of time before I go from being bearish on the US because of the dysfunctional US government to being an irrational perma-bull, at least for the next few decades. There is just too much upside potential with this country of ours — if we can muster the political will to handle our serious fiscal issues.

Gary builds the positive case beyond the fiscal concerns, and a compelling case it is. In six crucial areas, he says — demographics, entrepreneurial activity, labor relations, domestic vs. foreign debt financing, currency strength, and energy independence — the US is better positioned than any of its major competitors.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, August 23, 2013

This is What the Fed’s QE Has Done for Our Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Tara Clarke writes: The Fed's QE (quantitative easing) program has created multiple trillions of dollars since it first started in 2008.

But now there are signs the QE policy will finally come to a close.

On June 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced the Fed may start to taper its QE by the end of the year if it met an unemployment target of 7%, while keeping a targeted inflation rate at 2%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Market Bubbles and Economic Busts / Politics / US Economy

By: LewRockwell

Charles Goyette writes: Has President Obama at last figured it out?

If only.

The President has been talking a lot of late about the bubble economy. Last month he mentioned “unstable bubbles” that threaten the economy, and the other day in his radio address he referred to “the bubble-and-bust mentality” that has made “a mess” of our economy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, August 15, 2013

U.S. Economy Set to Continue Grinding Higher / Economics / US Economy

By: DailyWealth

Dr. David Eifrig writes: For the past year, I've been carefully watching for signs of trouble...

The two biggest potential sources of trouble – the two big concerns I hear from investors – are:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, August 10, 2013

The Half Full U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

The marginal economic strength that was described in the most recent GDP release from Washington has caused many to double down on their belief that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering Quantitative Easing sometime later this year. While I believe that is a fantasy given our economy's extreme dependence on QE, market observers should have learned long ago that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) initial GDP estimates can't be trusted. A perusal of their subsequent GDP revisions in the last five years reveals a clear trend: They are almost twice as likely to revise initial estimates down rather than up, and the downward adjustments have been much larger on average.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, August 09, 2013

Fingers of Instability - Developed World Centrally Planned Socialist Economies Continue to Fail / Economics / US Economy

By: Ty_Andros

"In the blink of an eye this week, they made the size of the American economy grow by $560 billion." This is but the latest addition to PHANTOM growth to cover up gross mismanagement of the economy by Washington DC (District of Corruption). A few of the items of NEW growth created out of thin air include double counting of R&D spending which is ALREADY contained in final sales numbers, another is unfunded pension obligations are now called PAID wages. A report of growth is nothing but an apparition (ghost). When socialists can’t get the economy to grow they rely on doublespeak and newspeak for the masses.  Look at an illustration of what the new phantom growth has done to the record books courtesy of Lance Roberts (www.streettalklive.com, I highly recommend this newsletter):

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, August 05, 2013

The Worst U.S. Jobs Report in Four Months Does One Thing / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: This morning we got news that 162,000 jobs were created in July in the U.S. economy—the worst showing in the past four months. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 2, 2013.)

And when we look closely at the July U.S. jobs market report, it gets worse.

First off, the previous months’ numbers keep getting revised downward; the number of jobs added to the U.S. economy in May was revised down from 195,000 to 176,000, and June’s numbers were revised down from 195,000 to 188,000—combined, that’s 26,000 jobs that never really happened.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

U.S. Economic Review - Inflation, GDP and Long-term Interest Rates / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington kick off their second-quarter Review and Outlook with a contrarian view: "The secular low in bond yields has yet to be recorded." And as usual, they have their reasons; but unlike most of the blabbermouth economic talking heads out there, they aren't interested in endlessly parsing the fitful utterances of Ben Bernanke and friends. Rather, they zero in on the fundamental reasons why long-term Treasury yields have probably not hit their low. Those reasons fall, they say, into four categories: (a) diminished inflation pressures, (b) slowing GDP growth, (c) weakening consumer fundamentals, and (d) anti-growth monetary and fiscal policies.

Then Lacy and Van take us deep into the whys and wherefores of their thesis. Their reasoning and the evidence behind it make for compelling reading – but you may want to read twice.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, July 19, 2013

Central Banksters Make the Best Economic Terrorists / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_Mills

From the minutes of theFederal Reserve meeting April 30th - May 1st 2013.

"Many participants indicated that continued (job market) progress, more confidence in the outlook, or diminished downside risks would be required before slowing the pace of purchases."

On May 22nd Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that a decision could be made, at any of the next few Fed meetings, to scale back the $85 billion in bonds the Fed is buying each month if the economy looked set to maintain momentum. The S&P 500 closed 0.8% lower, the dollar hit a three year high and the bond market sold off with yields on the 10 year Treasury notes jumping above 2%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

1% U.S. Economic Growth: QE Policy a Failure, Time for A Change / Economics / US Economy

By: EconMatters

Fed Policy – Pushing on a string: Is far too Kind

Economists are now ratcheting down their forecasts for final 2nd quarter GDP to 1% which just further illustrates the ineffectiveness of fed policy measures. Ben Bernanke blames fiscal policies out of Washington, saying he can only do so much to counteract their lack of a healthy tax code, job creation plans, and inefficiencies.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, July 12, 2013

U.S. Economic Tide Has Turned, Market Implications / Economics / US Economy

By: Puru_Saxena

The world’s economic landscape is changing and after a disastrous decade, America is once again in the driver’s seat.  Contrary to the 2000-2011 time frame (when the developing nations fared a lot better than America), the tide seems to have turned in favour of the world’s largest economy. 

As you will recall, at the turn of the millennium, American business was booming and Wall Street was caught up in an epic technology bubble!  Back then, American assets were highly sought after and even its currency was extremely strong.  Unfortunately, that period of prosperity did not last forever and the bursting of the technology bubble in March 2000 ushered in an era of painful adjustment.  Thereafter, in the aftermath of the NASDAQ bust, Mr. Greenspan helped ignite America’s housing boom and we all know how that story ended.  To make matters worse, the US Dollar also topped out in 2001 and for almost 10 years, holders of American assets also suffered due to currency devaluation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, July 02, 2013

Can Bernanke Brake Without Derailing U.S. Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

According to most commentators, reducing monetary stimulus and winding down the balance sheet of the Fed without major economic disruptions is going to be a major challenge for US central bank policy makers. On Wednesday, June 19 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, said that given an improved outlook on the economy, the US central bank may moderate the pace of monetary pumping. According to Bernanke, by mid-2014 the Fed may even end the purchasing of assets.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Monday, July 01, 2013

Obama Finds A New Way to Strangle US Economy / Politics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: The scary question is, is he continuing to wound this recovery on purpose or by accident?

And which answer is worse?

Last Tuesday, President Obama announced his "Action Plan on Climate Change."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, June 29, 2013

Dismal U.S. Consumer Spending to Drag U.S. Back into Recession / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: While the mainstream economists were quick to believe that the U.S. economy is growing as the key stock indices suggest, I stood by my opinion that it isn’t.

After the first estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the U.S. economy came out, a wave of optimism struck and stock markets rallied. It seemed as if everything was headed in the right direction.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Real Disposable Income Collapse at 2008 Crisis Rates / Economics / US Economy

By: Graham_Summers

The biggest single most important item in the GDP report yesterday was the collapse in disposable income for Americans.

Most investors will focus on the drop in GDP growth for 1Q13 and view it as opening the door for the Fed to continue with QE 3 and QE 4 without any tapering in sight.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Single Largest Driver of the US Economy is About to Collapse / Economics / US Economy

By: Graham_Summers

The markets continue their dead cat bounce while the economic data worsens.

First quarter US GDP was revised down from an annual rate of 2.4% to 1.8%. The drop was due to lower personal consumption expenditures than initially forecast.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, June 13, 2013

S&P Credit Ratings Agency Upgrades U.S. Economic Outlook - Wrong Again! / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: If you're not familiar with the term "putting lipstick on a pig," well I think there is an apt example at play again from the people who seem to be experts at applying the lipstick.

Standard and Poor's this week raised the outlook for the U.S. credit rating from "negative" to "stable," citing reduced fiscal risks and policymakers' willingness to sustain growth.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

What’s Really Holding Back the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: There continues to be much speculation over when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its asset purchase program and lower the level of monetary stimulus. The biggest concern for both the Federal Reserve and the nation is the level of job creation.

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly report on the level of non-farm job creation, which was as expected: neither too hot nor too cold, with a total of 175,000 new jobs created for the month of May. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 7, 2013.)

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, May 26, 2013

U.S. Economy Drowning in a Liquidity Trap? / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

Bruce Bartlett recently lamented in The New York Times that given the current state of economic affairs we need more Keynesian medicine to fix the US economy. According to Bartlett, the core insight of Keynesian economics is that there are very special economic circumstances in which the general rules of economics don’t apply and are in fact counterproductive. This happens when interest rates and inflation rates are so low that monetary policy becomes impotent; an increase in the money supply has no boosting effect because it does not lead to additional spending by consumers or businesses. Keynes called this situation a “liquidity trap.” Keynes wrote,

There is the possibility ... that, after the rate of interest has fallen to a certain level, liquidity-preference may become virtually absolute in the sense that almost everyone prefers cash to holding a debt which yields so low a rate of interest. In this event the monetary authority would have lost effective control over the rate of interest.[1]

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Thursday, May 02, 2013

How the U.S. Government Destroyed the American Economy / Politics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

US stocks are turning down this morning, following news that private-sector job growth in the US slowed the most in seven months.

We've already recommended you exit US stocks and buy gold on the dips.

Nothing has changed our view... So we'll get back to where we left off yesterday – making camp for the night after a long horse trek into the distant reaches of our remote Argentine ranch...

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, May 01, 2013

Has Sequestration Saved the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: There's a Jamaican saying, "the higher the monkey climbs up the tree, the more his butt is exposed."

The point being that the more we rise, the more vulnerable we become.

That has truly come to pass for a pair of superstars of the dismal science. And it could have a big impact on how successfully (or unsuccessfully) we can get the U.S. economy back on the rails.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

America's Shadow Black Economy Doubles to $2 Trillion / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: Doing what they can to survive in a dour job market, millions of Americans exist in an underground economy that has ballooned to $2 trillion annually.

By "underground economy," we're talking about all the business activity that is not reported to the government, which includes a growing number of people getting paid for their labor in cash.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, April 27, 2013

The Underground Economic Recovery, a Cashless Society? / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

But Mousie, thou art [not alone], In proving foresight may be vain: The best-laid schemes o' mice an' men Gang aft agley, An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain, For promis'd joy! Robert Burns, To a Mouse, on Turning Her Up in Her Nest with the Plough

It is a common trope in science fiction novels. Economic transactions are handled seamlessly with a wave of a card or a physically imbedded chip, and whatever the author imagines money to be is transferred, far removed from the archaic confines of ancient physical monies. If you Google "cashless society" you get about 600,000 references in under a second, and 20 pages into the references there are still articles on a future world where physical cash is no longer needed. Some see it as a sign of the "end times," some as a capitalist plot, some as a frightening vision of socialists and ever-bigger governments, and some as a logical step in the evolution of a technologically driven international commerce.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, April 27, 2013

BEA U.S. Economy Grows by 2.5% Annualised in Q1 2013 / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their first estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2013, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a 2.50% annualized rate, some 2.12% better than the 0.38% growth rate for the prior quarter.

Although the headline number itself indicates moderate mid-cycle growth, the details within the BEA's report cast at best a mixed message for the overall health of the economy. For example: although the overall contribution from consumer spending was up, it came mainly from spending on services (boosting the headline number by 1.46%, and principally spent on non-discretionary rents and utilities), with consumer spending for goods contributing to the headline number at a more modest 0.78% (down about -0.24% from the prior quarter). And although fixed investments were still contributing a positive 0.53% to the headline number, that was down over a full percent from the prior quarter. In fact, inventories swinging back to growth (after contracting during the prior quarter) arguably provided all of the quarter-to-quarter improvement in the headline growth rate.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

The Fed's Money Printing Flaw, Velocity and No Inflation / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington launch into their first-quarter "Review and Outlook," this week's Outside the Box, with a statement that some may find eye-opening: "The Federal Reserve (Fed) is not, and has not been, 'printing money'…" But given the facts of life about how money is really created (and destroyed), they are of course right: it's all about the acceleration – or deceleration – in the M2 money supply.

But there are deeper currents here. For, as Van and Lacy say, "A review of post-war economic history would lead to a logical assumption that the money supply (M2) would respond upward to [the Fed's] massive infusion of reserves into the banking system. And yet, the Fed's 3.5x expansion of the monetary base over the past five years has only grown M2 by 35%, and year-over-year growth through March, 2013, was less than 7%. "In other words," say our authors, "there is no evidence that the massive security purchases by the Fed have resulted in a sustained acceleration in monetary growth; nor is there evidence that economic conditions have improved."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

U.S. Economy to Get Jolt from 1.2 Million Homebuilding Jobs / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: An accelerating rebound in new home construction over the next two years should finally give the U.S. economy the jump-start it needs to progress toward a truly robust recovery.

New home construction continues to bounce back from the lows of 2009, after the housing bubble burst, but still has a long way to go.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, April 13, 2013

An Imaginary U.S. Recession? / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

An engineer, a chemist, and an economist are stranded on a deserted island. They are starving, when miraculously they find a box filled with canned food. What to do? They consider the problem, bringing their collective lifetimes of study and discipline to the task.

Being the practical, straightforward sort, the engineer suggests that they simply find a rock and hit the cans until they break open. “No, no!” cry the chemist and economist, “we would spill too much food and the birds would get it!”

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Obama's New Budget is a Stealthy Assault on the Middle Class / Politics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

With a little sleight of hand in how the government calculates inflation, the Obama budget 2014 released today (Wednesday) proposes to both raise taxes on the middle class and reduce future payments to Social Security recipients.

That's quite a reversal coming from a Democratic president who had promised to protect the American middle class.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Here's Another Troubling Sign America is Circling the Drain / Politics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: Don't blame yourself if you missed this tidbit last week...

On Thursday, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau hit the nation's four largest mortgage insurers with a total of $15.4 million in fines for "allegedly" paying kickbacks to lenders to steer business their way.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, April 07, 2013

The Real Reason There Will Be No Economic Recovery in America / Economics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Nothing much happened on Wall Street yesterday. The Dow rose 56 points. Gold was flat.

From the Daily Mail in London:

US sees highest poverty spike since the 1960s, leaving 50 million Americans poor...

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Sunday, April 07, 2013

Stockman Takes Down Krugman / Politics / US Economy

By: William_Anderson

In 1981, David A. Stockman, a former Michigan congressman turned budget director for President Ronald Reagan, gave a series of interviews to socialist William Greider who subsequently published an article in Rolling Stone entitled, "The Education of David Stockman." The article portrayed someone who had come into the administration hopeful that the free-spending ways of the 1960s and 70s would be ended and that the U.S. Government would embrace fiscal sanity, but had become disillusioned by the whole process.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Relationship between Current U.S Deficits, Exchange Rates and Triffin Dilemma / Economics / US Economy

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

After the Great Depression in the 1930s the state of affair of the World economy can be at best described as turbulence.  As a result of the Great Depression many countries experience a period of plummeting personal income, tax collection, exports and consumption. During that time most of the world’s economies have unstable exchange rates which also resulted in unstable world trade. Following this many countries engaged in competitive currency devaluation which resulted in the ‘beggar thy neighbour’ policies being adopted. Hence due to the intensified currency wars among nations ‘protectionist’ trade policies are also introduced.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, March 18, 2013

Four Truths About the U.S. Economy All Investors Should Know / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Truth #1: At the beginning of 2008, there were 28.22 million people in the U.S. economy on food stamps. Fast-forward to 2012, and the number has increased to 46.60 million—an increase of more than 65%. (Source: United States Department of Agriculture, March 8, 2013.) The number of Americans now on food stamps represents almost 15% of the entire population in the U.S. economy right now.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, March 05, 2013

Why America Will Be the Next Japan / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The media is harping on about how the U.S. is well on its way to recovery. Well, I don’t agree—the country’s economy is slowing. In the fourth quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) growth based on the second estimate expanded at 0.1%; this is above the -0.1% reading in the first estimate, but nonetheless, it’s below consensus, which estimated the economy would grow 0.5%. I’m not sure how the 0.5% growth was arrived at, but the concerns of the fiscal cliff in the fourth quarter clearly made consumers think twice about spending. Of course, the government also saw its spending curtailed due to the debt limit and pending sequester.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 23, 2013

How Long Can U.S. Economy’s Sweet Spot Last This Time? / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Until recently, the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis and meltdown has been in stealth mode all the way, much of the country either unaware of the progress - or in denial that it was happening.

That’s even been true of investors, whose success depends so much on being able to separate the facts and reality from the static and noise. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Why America’s Economic Confidence Is Fragile / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The recession is over, and the U.S. economy is showing some encouraging signs of economic renewal.

Shoppers are hitting the malls and stores, helping to drive up retail sales. I’d stick with the top department stores, like Macys, Inc. (NYSE/M), or discounters, such as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE/WMT), which will continue to rebound.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, February 07, 2013

Euro-zone Prisoner of Bureaucracy, The Good, the Bad, and the Greek / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

“The euro will not survive the first major European recession.” – Milton Friedman, 1999

“It seems to me that Europe, especially with the addition of more countries, is becoming ever-more susceptible to any asymmetric shock. Sooner or later, when the global economy hits a real bump, Europe’s internal contradictions will tear it apart.” – Milton Friedman, 1999

“… there will be asymmetric shocks hitting the different countries. That will mean that the only adjustment mechanism they have to meet that with is fiscal and unemployment: pressure on wages, pressure on prices.” – Milton Friedman, 1998

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, February 07, 2013

U.S. Econcomy ALL IS WELL! PhD in Stupidity / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” Aldous Huxley

I woke up this past Saturday morning and opened my local paper to find out that all was well. An Associated Press article declared a healthy jobs market, fantastic auto sales, a surging housing market, and a stock market rocketing to new all-time highs. What’s not to love? If the mainstream media says the economy is as good as new, it must be so. Why should we let facts get in the way of a good storyline? The stock market has surged to 2007 highs, so the country’s employment situation must be strong.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, February 06, 2013

Hidden Good News Buried in Bad U.S. GDP Economic Data / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: The markets were hit with an unexpected twist last week. On Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis shocked markets by announcing that U.S. Gross Domestic Product had declined by 0.1% in the fourth quarter.

That marked the first time economic output had fallen since the end of the Great Recession.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, February 01, 2013

Does The Stock Market Have It Right On The Economy Again? / Stock-Markets / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

The stock market usually figures out what lies ahead for the economy well before economists and the Fed catch on.

That can be seen in the way the market rolls over into a bear market when conditions are still looking great, when investor sentiment is at high levels of bullishness and optimism, when economists are projecting the positive trend to continue in a straight line into the future, and usually turns back up into the next bull market when sentiment is bearish and well before the economy shows signs of pulling out of a recession.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

United States on the Verge of an Explosion of Greatness! / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

David Tepper, founder of Appaloosa Management, told Bloomberg Television's Stephanie Ruhle on "Market Makers" today that he's "going to come out of the closet right now...we are bullish... This country is on the version of just an explosion of greatness. Do you like that? Explosion of greatness."

On how he founded Appaloosa, Tepper said, "after you work on Wall Street it's a choice, would you rather work at McDonald's or on the sell side? I would choose McDonald's. Over the sell side."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Corporate Hoarding Of Cash May Soon Become A Big Economic Positive! / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

For a number of years politicians and analysts have bemoaned the fact that U.S. corporations were hoarding cash to an unprecedented degree, refusing to invest it for future growth that might have helped the economy recover from the back-to-back recessions of 2001 and 2008. Lagging business investment has continuously been tagged as one of the major factors stifling the economy.

Depending on whose numbers you believe, corporations are sitting on a record $2 trillion to $4 trillion in idle cash, earning only today’s minimal interest.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, January 19, 2013

US Economy - The Erosion of Growth, Tax Consequences From Gain to Drain / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

In their fourth-quarter 2012 Quarterly Review and Outlook – today’s OTB – Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington spell out the consequences of the so-called American Taxpayer Relief Act, as well as the even more egregiously named Affordable Care Act. They quickly conclude that the real effects of the tax increases on both individual taxpayers and the overall economy will be much greater than media reports have suggested.

One of the more interesting impacts is that many corporations, large and small, borrowed multiple billions of dollars to make early or special dividend payments, or paid 2012 bonuses before the year turned over. This, the authors write, “… will cause the fourth quarter national income and product figures to be dramatically overstated and will provide no guide to the prospects for 2013. However … income should show a sharp decline early in 2013.”

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 11, 2013

Outlook for the US Economy in 2013 / Economics / US Economy

By: Brian_Bloom

POTUS may have made a serious tactical error, in "engineering" the House fiscal cliff vote. US Public Debt limit negotiations loom.  The error can be retrieved if he backs down and shows humility in negotiations. If he continues with his arrogant approach, the economy (and the gold price) might head south.

The chart below - courtesy Stockcharts.com – shows very clearly that the gold price has arrived at yet another decision point.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, January 06, 2013

US Jobs Report Points to an “Economy Mired in Crisis” / Economics / US Economy

By: Barry_Grey

The December employment report released Friday by the US Labor Department reflects an economy mired in crisis. It shows that five years after the official onset of recession and three and a half years after the recession’s official end, the US has failed to generate a recovery in jobs and incomes for the vast majority of the American people.

US non-farm payrolls saw a net increase of 155,000 jobs, somewhat lower than economists’ projections and barely sufficient to keep pace with the normal monthly growth of the working-age population. The official unemployment rate was set at 7.8 percent, the same as the rate for November, which was upwardly revised from 7.7 percent.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Wednesday, January 02, 2013

Fiscal Cliff Deal and the U.S. Economy Swan Dive of 2013 / Politics / US Economy

By: BATR

Hold your breath, the race to the bottom is ready to escalate. The consequence of the corporate consumerism economy has reached the tipping point. The old rules that mainstream spending will dig the way back to prosperity are permanently dead. The one sure implication that is indisputable is that taxes are set to rise at unprecedented levels. With Obamacare revenue obligations coming into effect, the latest phase of centralized medical socialism spreads like a virus. Under such circumstances, how can the patient regain their health?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, December 31, 2012

How Is America Really Doing? 75 Facts Revealed / Economics / US Economy

By: GoldSilverWorlds

An amazing list of real facts was published by The Economic Collapse Blog, entitled 75 Economic Numbers From 2012 That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe. An excellent article that presents 75 facts & figures, based on research or surveys, indicating the real state of the US. Reviewing those facts and comparing them with the messages in the mainstream media and the government, we see such a huge disconnect.

We selected what we consider “fundamental facts” based on the following themes:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Economic Transition And The Supercycle / Economics / US Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

WHEN IS A CYCLE A SUPERCYCLE?
The very first modern stockmarket crash of 1719-1721, of the French bourse was entirely driven by the Apple and Facebook-of-the-day. These were shares in the Mississippi Company, a company modeled on England's South Sea Company which peaked and crashed in almost exactly the same timeframe. Mississippi Co.'s first share offering IPO was in January 1719 at a unit price of 500 livres (the French currency of the time). The shares "went viral" driving prices to 10 000 livres per share by December 1719, an 11-month gain of 1,900 percent. All kinds of people became "investors" and many became millionaires just from their holdings of Company shares. The French word “millionaire” was coined to describe speculators who got lucky and got wealthy as a result of the Mississippi Bubble.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, December 24, 2012

Why Bernanke’s Terrified of 2013 / Economics / US Economy

By: Graham_Summers

On December 12, the US Federal Reserve surprised yet again by announcing QE 4: a program through which it would purchase $45 billion of US Treasuries every month.

Between this program and the Fed’s QE 3 Program announced in September, the Fed will be monetizing $85 billion worth of assets every month ($40 billion worth of Treasuries and $45 billion worth of Mortgage Backed Securities) ad infinitum.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, December 23, 2012

U.S. Miles Driven Economic Indicator Hits Another Post-Crisis Low / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short.The Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through October. Travel on all roads and streets changed by 0.3% (0.9 billion vehicle miles) for October 2012 as compared with October 2011. The 12-month moving average of miles driven increased only 0.51% from October a year ago (PDF report). And the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) has set another post-financial crisis low.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, December 21, 2012

How Will the Housing Market Affect the U.S. Economy in 2013? / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: One of the most important sectors of the economy is the housing market. The housing market is crucial for several reasons. First, the housing market employs a lot of people, both directly and indirectly. This includes the direct employment of people in the housing industry, such as tradesmen and homebuilders, and the indirect employment of people in related industries, such as the automakers that build pickup trucks to be used by tradesmen and homebuilders.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, December 21, 2012

BEA Raises U.S. 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth Estimate to 3.09% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their third (and "final") estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the economy was growing at a 3.09% annualized rate, an upward revision of +0.42% from the previously published estimate for that quarter and 1.83% better than the second quarter of 2012.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Fed Policy of Phony Economic Growth Will Destroy the U.S. Dollar / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

By upping the ante once again in its gamble to revive the lethargic economy through monetary action, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee is now compelling the rest of us to buy into a game that we may not be able to afford. At his press conference this week, Fed Chairman Bernanke explained how the easiest policy stance in Fed history has just gotten that much easier. First it gave us zero interest rates, then QEs I and II, Operation Twist, and finally "unlimited" QE3.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, December 13, 2012

U.S. Economy, We Can Ignore Reality! / Economics / US Economy

By: DeviantInvestor

“We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand

With apologies to Ayn Rand, let’s explore some examples of ignoring reality.

We can ignore the (U.S. government) deficit, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring the deficit. If the deficit increases each year, the total debt will soon be so out of control that it is unpayable. Oops, the United States is there now. The consequences that we cannot ignore are:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

BlackRock's Fink: Very Bullish on US Economy 2013 / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, guest hosted Bloomberg TV's "Market Makers" with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle today. Fink said that he's "very bullish" on the United States and "our corporations are in fabulous shape with $1.7 trillion in cash...I don't believe you're going to see that much default risk in the next few years."

Fink also said that "95% of the people that are talking about [the fiscal cliff] have no clue" and "I think we will find a solution."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, December 09, 2012

Startling Look at U.S. Job Demographics by Age / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

ZeroHedge had an interesting set of charts of BLS data in his post Number Of Workers Aged 25-54 Back To April 1997 Levels.

I picked up on that theme and put together this chart of BLS data showing various age groups.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, December 09, 2012

U.S. Real Hourly Wages and Hours Worked Analysis / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. Here is a look at two key numbers in today’s monthly employment report for November: Average Hourly Earnings and Average Weekly Hours. The government has been tracking the data for Production and Nonsupervisory Employees for decades. But coverage of Total Private Employees only dates from March 2006.

Let’s look at the broader series, which goes back far enough to show the trend since before the Great Recession. I want to look closely at a five-snapshot sequence.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, December 08, 2012

Why the 98% Matter to the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong: President Obama is on a fiscal cliff campaign to show why middle-class America really needs the help. Of course, Republicans want the Bush-era tax cuts to also apply to the top two percent of income earners. This is the major sticking point holding up a deal.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, December 07, 2012

U.S. Household Net Worth: The ”Real” Story / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short writes: A quick glance at the complete household net worth data series in a linear chart shows a distinct bubble in net worth that peaked in Q4 2007 with a trough in Q1 2009, the quarter the equity markets bottomed. The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth that is 26.4% above the 2009 trough but still 3.8% below the 2007 peak. The nominal Q3 net worth is up 2.7% from Q2 and up 10.4% year over year.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, December 06, 2012

U.S. Census Bureau - Manufacturing Report / Economics / US Economy

By: Submissions

ForexAbode writes:

Summary:
October 2012 new orders for manufactured durable goods increased 0.8 percent, to $477.6 billion. Shipments rose 0.4 percent, to $482.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased 0.3 percent, to $982.9 billion. And inventories rose 0.1 percent, to $616.0 billion.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Will the U.S. Economy Follow Brazil’s Rapid Drop in GDP Growth? / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: With the world economy slowing, it is possible that we could see a global recession in 2013. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth for many countries has significantly declined in the third quarter of 2012. While some countries experienced an increase in GDP growth in the first part of the year, it’s quite apparent going into the third quarter that, for most nations, the estimates were far too high.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

The Fed’s Most Ominous Economic Indicator! / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Fed Chairman Bernanke has been pounding the table publicly and privately, stressing how important it is that Congress reach an agreement preventing the economy from going over the fiscal cliff at year-end. You’ve seen the numbers estimating the impact on the already anemic economy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Economic Impact of Super-Storm Sandy and the Electoral Blues Update / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

Earlier this month we reviewed the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the presidential election on the shopping behavior of American consumers by comparing this year's behavior with what we had observed during the 2008 election campaign. In both cases we witnessed a significant fall-off in consumer demand that was broadly coincidental with the election:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Hurricane Sandy and the Economy: The Lesson from Katrina / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDoug Short writes: In studying the data for my latest Big Four Economic Indicators update, I wondered how much impact Hurricane Sandy might have had on the economy in October and what to expect in the months ahead. I thought it would be interesting to take a close look at the behavior of the Big Four in the months before and after Hurricane Katrina hit the coast in August 2005.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, November 12, 2012

Green Shoots of a US Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Economy

By: Alasdair_Macleod

There is growing hope in some quarters that economic recovery is at last under way in the USA. Is this just an election-inspired pick-up in sentiment, now rapidly vanishing, or do we take it more seriously; and if it really is recovery, what are the inflationary consequences?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 09, 2012

Can President Obama Really Help the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: When it comes to the latest presidential election, the central focus for many U.S. citizens has been the lack of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for America. Since the Great Recession began several years ago, GDP growth has remained far below potential, leaving millions of people unemployed and looking for work. During this time, the global economy has also slowed. While President Barack Obama has made large claims about what he can do to help increase GDP growth, let’s take a look at the most likely scenario.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 02, 2012

Why Hurricane Sandy May Not Be All That Stimulating for US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Invariably, every major disaster comes with the pundits who promise it brings a silver lining.

With a price tag of $50 to $70 billion, some economic forecasters are already rejoicing about the economic "stimulus" that rebuilding from Sandy will bring. If only it were so.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Austerity Problems, Fiscal Cliff Perils, U.S. Election it's the Economy Stupid! / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“Spain is not Greece” – Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance Minister, February 2010

“Portugal is not Greece” – The Economist, April 2010

“Greece is not Ireland” – George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance Minister, November 2010

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, October 19, 2012

Halloween And The Ghost Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGhost cities in China, ghost racetracks in Greece, ghost jobs and growth in America: Halloween is coming right on time. However, in the now intensely mythologized Euro Crisis, even the ghost of terminal crisis seems to be dying. Today, the Eurozone is running a bigger and bigger capital surplus simply because the economy collapsed. With it, there are impressive falls in imports of Donald Duck flashlights and other stuff from China. Even black oil imports from friendly Russia and Arab countries are declining: most recent YOY data for motor fuel demand in the Eurozone-17 group shows about 6.5% decline. Trade deficits can only decline - as in the USA.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

U.S. Economic Recovery, Monetary Policy, and Demographics Analysis / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFresh on the heels of my 3:38 AM post Charting Errors in BLS Participation Rate Projections came an interesting speech by William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Fiscal Cliff Threatens U.S. With Recession, Politicans Lack Ability to Find Solution / Politics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBloomberg Television's Trish Regan sits down with four CEOs for a special edition of "Street Smart" focused on fixing the country's debt. Tune in to hear from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, NASDAQ CEO Bob Greifeld, UPS CEO Scott Davis and Honeywell CEO David Cote, who are all part of the Fix the Debt campaign.

The CEOs agree: It's Washington's fault we're not hiring and not spending. Honeywell's Cote says, "If we were playing with fire in the debt ceiling, we'll be playing with nitroglycerine now when it comes to the fiscal cliff."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, October 13, 2012

When It Comes to Forecasting, Consumers are Smarter Than 'Conomists / Economics / US Economy

By: Lee_Adler

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Thompson Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released this morning, and like just about every other September release, it hugely beat economists consensus expectations. I had written several pieces in September alluding to the fact that withholding tax collections had surged early in the month and continued to do well thereafter, foreshadowing what would be stronger than expected economic releases for September.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, October 13, 2012

What do White-Winged Doves have to do with Economics? / Economics / US Economy

By: D_Sherman_Okst

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEverything!

This short, nonfiction, tragicomedy personifies what is wrong with our country, our economy and our totally inept and very dysfunctional legal system that has become a leech to taxpayers and a threat to humanity.  

The Great Depression of the 1930s was brought upon by lawlessness. Documented, historical proof that a functioning economy is dependent on a basic legal framework. One that we no longer have. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Friday, October 12, 2012

Navigating the US's Politicized Economy / Politics / US Economy

By: Casey_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTerry Coxon, Casey Research : Absent the state's involvement in the workings of the marketplace, an investor's central task would be to evaluate companies for their ability to efficiently produce and market what customers want. Shrewdness at that one task would lead to the profits investors are looking for. And there would be other consequences.

The stocks of companies that succeeded in convincing investors that they had the right stuff (primarily through good performance) would be bid up. Stocks of companies that failed to make their case to investors would tend to drift down, and any company whose stock drifted low enough would become a takeover target. A takeover would replace underperforming management with a new team of officers and directors – individuals picked by the people who laid out their own money to buy enough shares to control the company.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, October 08, 2012

U.S. Economic Recovery? Sign's of What's Ahead / Economics / US Economy

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSeveral signs suggest economic contraction instead of expansion.

The first was recent front-page news: 8.1% August jobless rate. The number would have been higher, but it excludes people who gave up the job search.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Monday, September 17, 2012

The Economic Dreamtime Comes Of Age / Politics / US Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor at least 4 years, hundreds of commentators have analyzed and predicted "the slow train wreck" of the global economy. Advice they give ranges from buying gold to not spending extravagantly, avoiding the "home equity trap" of buying apartments or houses, avoiding the stock market and staying mobile. What we have instead of the train wreck is “anticipation management” by the markets and a predictable and constant, "reassuring" talk up of the general economy and its so-called resilience by mainstream financial media, from Bloomberg and the Economist, to the WSJ and FT. Their game is to tell us there is no end in sight for spinning out the party.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, September 07, 2012

U.S. Economic Report Card / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_Mills

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLet's ask ourselves two simple questions;

  • How do economists, and Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke is an economist, discern whether an economy is growing, is vibrant and healthy? Well, for most economists it's a simple number, they use a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to measure the state of the economy.
  • What's the most important thing for a politician? The answer is getting reelected.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Sunday, September 02, 2012

Middle Class Lost Decade, Who do You Blame? / Politics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Pew Research center ponders The Lost Decade of the Middle Class.

Since 2000, the middle class has shrunk in size, fallen backward in income and wealth, and shed some -- but by no means all -- of its characteristic faith in the future.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, September 02, 2012

The U.S. Consumer Has In Fact Changed / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe consumer represents 70% of total economic output. So as the bond market is to the capital market, so is the consumer to the economy. When the consumer sneezes, the economy catches more than just a cold.

Since the "end" of the 2008 recession something very interesting has happened to the US economy. The US consumer has actually changed their spending habits. They have actually started to live more within their means. And that is a very positive sign for a number of reasons both financially and socially.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, August 31, 2012

U.S. Economies Financial Tectonic Plates Are Shifting Once Again / Economics / US Economy

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHistory books call the period after the War of 1812 "The Era of Good Feelings."

America was a young nation that had a sense of purpose. National political strife was at a minimum; optimism was in the air.

Major advances in technology and engineering brought the country turnpikes for easier travel and "The Canal Craze" for more efficient commerce.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, August 30, 2012

U.S. 2012:Q2 GDP Growth Upward Revision Reflects Stronger Final Sales / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe real gross domestic product of the US economy grew at annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter, slightly higher than the original estimate of a 1.5% increase. Stronger growth in consumer spending, a smaller trade gap, and an upward revision of government outlays more than offset reductions in business investment outlays and residential investment expenditures to result in a higher estimate of GDP for the second quarter. As a result of the revisions, final sales increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the second quarter, previously reported as a 1.2% gain. (Details of GDP data are available here).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, August 30, 2012

BEA Revises Estimate of Annualized U.S. GDP Economic Growth to 1.73% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn their first revision to their estimate of the second quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 1.73%, up 0.19% from their initial estimate -- but still down about a quarter of a percent from the 1.97% reported for the prior quarter and down over two and a quarter percent from the 4.10% growth rate for the 4th quarter of 2011. The changes in the GDP growth shown in this report do not represent actual month-to-month changes in the economy, but merely a refined understanding of the previously reported data for the second quarter.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Monday, August 20, 2012

Bernanke's Dual Mandate Trap / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter reporting an uptick of national unemployment rate of 8.3%, it is of little surprise that the Labor Dept. said on Friday that jobless rates rose in 44 U.S. states in July, with many states showing a monthly increase in more than three years.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, August 13, 2012

U.S. Economic Facts and Consequences of Growth in Government Jobs vs. Private Jobs vs. Population Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeynesian clowns are concerned about the decline in government jobs in the past few years. They want the government to step up spending and hire more workers to make up for the loss of jobs in the private sector.

Here is a chart from reader Tim Wallace that will help put the recent loss of government jobs in a better perspective.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, August 12, 2012

U.S. Economy Huge Reality Check Ahead? / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: Let's try and be insightful today, shall we?

Equities have been rallying; we'll call it the summer rally.

Major benchmarks are only a few percentage points off their highs. It's all good, right?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, August 09, 2012

Why U.S. Econcomy the Bears Are Wrong…Again / Economics / US Economy

By: Yiannis_G_Mostrous

Since the beginning of the year, being bearish and trashing the global economy has been the favorite pastime for the majority of market observers. Recurring negative themes have been the sluggish US economy, the supposedly imminent demise of the euro and the slowdown in growth of China’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, August 07, 2012

U.S. Economic Recovery Orders and Production: No Time for Complacency / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe have been assaulted with economic news of all sorts, from every corner of the globe, while trying to watch the Olympics and while we would rather be enjoying summer and decompressing (at least in the Northern hemisphere).

But the data keeps coming. My friend John Silvia, the Chief Economist of Wells Fargo, has been with me in Maine this past weekend. And as we caught fish and shared our thoughts, we also both managed to get out our respective writing done. His note this morning is a particularly interesting analysis of US data, which has him wondering about his call for tepid growth but no recession

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, August 03, 2012

Mr. Bernanke's Postponement Strategy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Ian_R_Campbell

On Wednesday, August 1 Chairman Bernanke provided an update on the Federal Reserve's position on the U.S. economy. He commented briefly in a negative tone on U.S. GDP growth, unemployment, consumer spending and the housing sector. He said the Fed's U.S. inflation expectations remained stable. He reconfirmed the Fed's policy of reinvesting in U.S. treasuries until December 2012.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

U.S. Economy on Soft Trajectory as Consumer Spending Falls / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal consumer spending declined 0.1% in June, after posting gains of 0.2% and 0.1% in April and May, respectively. Outlays of durable goods and services held steady in June, but that of non-durables fell 0.4%. We can discern the causes for a drop in consumer non-durables when the Commerce Department publishes complete details of consumer expenditures on Friday, August 3. More importantly, the level of real consumer spending in June ($9576 billion) is lower than the second quarter average ($9582 billion), which sets up the case of strong monthly gains in consumer spending in the third quarter if consumer spending has to make a noticeable contribution to real GDP. There are doubts about a strong trajectory of consumer spending in the second-half of the year, given the current worrisome labor market situation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, July 30, 2012

The Multi-Trillion Dollar Black Hole That Could Undermine the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: The difficulties facing retirees aren't just their problems. Underfunded pensions weigh down everyone's retirement expectations and America's future growth prospects.

Kicking the can down the road on this one has involved everything from outright lying to misrepresentation, bordering on fraud in the way pension plans calculate their liabilities.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, July 27, 2012

Will US GDP Numbers Lead to QE3? / Economics / US Economy

By: GoldCore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday's AM fix was USD 1,618.75, EUR 1,321.43, and GBP 1,031.51 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,603.00, EUR 1,321.74and GBP 1,034.26 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $27.79/oz, €22.65/oz and £17.74/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,420.70/oz, palladium at $571.75/oz and rhodium at $1,150/oz.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, July 26, 2012

America’s Competitive Spirit Driving Global Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the few things that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney can agree on is that our economy is still struggling to regain its strength. Stubborn unemployment and sluggish growth at home combined with a slowing China and a dysfunctional eurozone have cast a dark shadow on America’s eternal optimism. The media favors negative news and the 24/7 cycle of gloom and doubt can be dispiriting.

 

We are always looking for the economic points of light around the globe and strive to provide a counterpoint to the pervasive pessimism. As Warren Buffett once said, “It’s never paid to bet against America. We come through things, but it’s not always a smooth ride.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Manufacturing Returning To U.S.? / Economics / US Economy

By: Ian_R_Campbell

There are increasing reports of repatriation of manufacturing to the U.S. from China and other low cost producer nations where product transportation costs are high, and where in some cases for 'high end products' (some furniture products for example) quality is seen to be better for 'made in America' products. That said:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Encouraging Data Buried in Otherwise Gloomy Economic News / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The European debt crisis continues to make headline news with Spanish and Italian government bond yields marking new post summit highs. These events have intensified the downside risks of economic growth in the United States in the quarters ahead. Buried in the sea of glum economic headlines, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to -0.15 in June from -0.48 in May. This index has a reputation of identifying turning points of economic activity in the United States.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, July 19, 2012

There is a Hole in the U.S. Economy, Economic Growth Could be Slashed By 71% / Economics / US Economy

By: Dan_Amerman

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEverything from the ability to pay for Social Security, to projected federal deficits, to retirement planning and stock market valuations is based upon assumptions that the United States and other nations will emerge from crisis and return to "normal" long-term growth rates. 

What happens if we don't return to those growth rates?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

U.S. Labor Market and Sales News Remains Unsatisfactory / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere were 3.642 million job openings in May according to the job openings and labor turnover report (JOLTS), which lags the employment report by one month. The job openings rate (number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings) moved up slightly to 2.7% in May from 2.5% in April, but matches the rate seen in March. The hiring rate (number of hires during the entire month as a percentage of total employment) at 3.3% in May has held at this level in three out of first five months of the year. Essentially, the report confirms the message from the employment report of sluggish labor market conditions.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, July 09, 2012

Barack Obama's Presidency Economic Report Card – Fail / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe are now three and one half years into Barack Obama's presidency. I thought a few pertinent charts would help us assess the success of his economic policies. Upon his election he demanded an $800 billion stimulus package in order to keep the unemployment rate from surpassing 8%. The $800 billion was to be spent over two years we were told and then government spending would be scaled back to pre-stimulus levels. There were 145 million Americans employed when Obama was elected. There are 9 million more working age Americans today than there were in 2008. There are now 142.4 million employed Americans. So, we've added 9 million potential workers and still have 2.6 less Americans employed. We have the same number of Americans employed as we did in early 2006, when there were 17 million less working age Americans.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, July 02, 2012

Can the U.S Economy "de-couple" from the Eurozone Debt Crisis? / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: As the Eurozone teeters on the edge of a breakup, it begs the question: Can the U.S economy "de-couple" from the Eurozone debt crisis?

Ultimately, the answer comes down to fate of the euro. It's the linchpin to everything.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, June 29, 2012

U.S. Economy Real GDP Composition Modified, Though Q1 Headline Remains Unchanged / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal GDP of the US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the first quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Although the headline was not changed, contributions of several components were modified. Consumer spending (+2.5% vs. +2.7% previous estimate), equipment and software (+3.5% vs. +3.9% previous estimate), exports (+4.2% vs. +7.2% prior estimate), inventories, and imports (+2.7% vs. +6.1% prior estimate) were revised down. Residential investment expenditures (+20% vs. +19.4% prior estimate) and structures (+1.9% vs. -3.3% prior estimate) were raised. In addition to the upward revisions, a smaller trade gap also helped to offset the downward revisions and leave the headline unchanged. There were upwards of each of the inflation measures.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, June 29, 2012

U.S. Economy GDP, The Hood Looks OK But It's A Mess Underneath / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week the final revision to Q1 2012 GDP was released. The headline is simple, GDP remains unchanged at 1.9%. Not great but not horrible either, right? I mean 2% growth amid outright contraction in Europe is good. Perhaps the US has finally decoupled?

You don't need an economics degree (trust me on that one) to look underneath the hood and see that this "unchanged revision" was actually indicative of something more sinister. That the US economy is not only in trouble but is clearly "coupled."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Fed Downgrades U.S. Economic Outlook and Buys Insurance / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOf the Fed's three options available today (do nothing, engage in QE3, extend Operation Twist), it has chosen the diplomatic route. It appears the Fed was concerned that if it took the path of using only language to indicate support it could rock a fragile global financial system. Given that emergency aid could not be justified, QE3 was out of the question at the present time. The Fed has chosen an extension of Operation Twist as it provides insurance and has fewer avenues of criticism. The Fed indicated that an extension of maturities of its Treasury security holdings will not expire as of June but will remain in place until the end of 2012. The expectation is that this action would exert downward pressure on long term interest rates.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

U.S. Economy Flirting with Disaster / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week I offer a main course, a veritable piece de resistance, for Outside the Box readers, from my friend Rich Yamarone. Rich is Chief Economist for Bloomberg and one really sharp talent. He helps write Bloomberg Brief: Economics, a daily notebook that comes out every business morning with an all-encompassing view of what's happening and will happen.

I have been on stage with him several times recently and have spent even more time with him over dinners. He keeps reminding me to pay attention to the slow-motion slowdown and eventual (he says) recession that is coming right here to the US. He thinks ten-year bond rates could scare 0.5% (not a typo!) if/when both Europe and China have a simultaneous crisis and the US is seen as a real –and perhaps the last – safe haven (to which I would add: besides gold). Certainly 1% on the ten-year and 2% on the 30-year will be on offer in such a scenario.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, June 02, 2012

U.S. Economic Recovery Reality Bites / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Many people became convinced that data releases earlier this year indicated that "recovery" in the U.S. was imminent. But as I have been saying for months, this evidence would ultimately be shown to be as reliable as sightings of Bigfoot. Lots of people claim to say they have seen it, some even produce plaster footprints, but in the end all we have is a guy in an ape suit. The economic recovery, that has been discussed so loudly and often in recent months, will be shown to be similarly mythical.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, May 31, 2012

US Unemployment and the Ubiquitous 'Zombie Job' Market / Economics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday was Memorial Day. We said a prayer for all the brave men and women who died in war…after all, we have a heart!

But the brain never quite gets in sync. When it looks at what those soldiers were doing, it wishes they had never left home. America’s wars were almost all ‘wars of choice,’ says a friend. “They were fought to expand the power of the empire. The Mexican-American war was a bald-faced grab for Mexican land. The ‘Civil War’ was a battle to bring the South into submission. The US took Puerto Rico and the Philippines in the Spanish American war. President Wilson took the US into WWI simply to throw our weight around in Europe; we had no dog in that fight. He botched up the peace so badly that the Europeans went to war again 20 years later to sort it out. That was a war – WWII in Europe – that the US didn’t have to get involved in either.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Labor Market Issues Hold Down U.S. Consumer Confidence Index in May / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped in May to 64.8 from 68.7 in the prior month. The sub-components of the index measuring the present situation (45.9 vs. 51.2 in April) and expectations of consumers (77.6 vs. 80.4 in April) declined in May. The current level of the Consumer Confidence Index is back to the mark seen in December. The Conference Board’s index is running counter to the improvement of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (79.3 vs. 76.3 in April). Labor market indicators play a big role in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index compared with the University of Michigan consumer optimism gauge.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, May 11, 2012

U.S. Trade, Initial Jobless Claims – Mixed Signals / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The trade deficit widened to $51.83 billion in March from $45.42 billion in the prior month. Exports (+2.9%) and imports (+5.2%) of goods and services both advanced in March, but imports outpaced exports. After adjusting for inflation, the goods trade gap increased to $48.9 billion during March from $44.1 billion in the previous month. A large part of the widening of the trade gap was from the non-petroleum component with oil imports accounting for the relatively smaller share. Capital goods excluding autos (+7.8%), autos (+4.8%), and consumer spending excluding autos (+7.8%) were thelarge components of imports. Exports of capital goods excluding autos rose 2.7% in March.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

U.S. Consumers Still Key to Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat I like most about Gary Shilling's economic analysis is that it's thorough.In the piece that follows – an excerpt from Gary's monthly INSIGHT – he ranges from the importance of US consumer spending and the unemployment rate, to the actions of the Fed, to business cost cutting and productivity, to the housing crisis and household debt, to state and local government fiscal issues, to US exports– Etc.! So by time he gets ready to deliver conclusions, you know they're well-supported. And Gary's overall conclusion here, regarding the rest of 2012, is a strong one and maybe not quite what you'd expect.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Sunday, April 29, 2012

U.S. GDP Miss Far Bigger Than Announced, Real GDP is 0% / Housing-Market / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 2.2%, down from 3.0% in the previous quarter, and below most mainstream media estimates of 2.5%.

However, my friend BC notes ....

The GDP deflator is reported to have averaged 1.2% annualized in the past 2 qtrs. Had the trend rate from '11 persisted, the deflator would have subtracted 2.6% annualized from real GDP, resulting in a 2-qtr. growth of real GDP of 0%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, April 28, 2012

U.S. Q1 2012 GDP Sends Mixed Message / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US economy expanded 2.2% in Q1 2012 versus 3% in Q4 2011 based on the first of three GDP estimates. Forecasts were for 2.5% growth with "whisper" numbers in the 3% range. As always on the surface this appears OK although one can easily argue this far into a "recovery" the economy should be growing at a faster pace. In fact the economy is closer to "stall speed" versus "escape velocity."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, April 27, 2012

U.S. Economy Having Difficulty Gaining Traction According to PIMCO's El-Erian / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBloomberg TV's Betty Liu spoke with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, who said that the Federal Reserve is likely to provide additional assistance if the economy weakens further, but there is "no immediate need" to do so.

El-Erian also said that the U.S economy needs to add 250,000 to 300,000 jobs every month if we are to "seriously start reducing unemployment to something that is acceptable," but that "the labor market is cooling off and doing so too early."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

U.S. Mortgage Refinancing: Stimulative or Redistributive? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

This "etude" has nothing to do with today's economic or market events. Rather, it is a little "acorn" for you to bury today and dig up in the future when some partial-equilibrium yahoo on CNBC says that total spending in the economy will get a boost as households refinance their mortgages at lower interest rates. Yes, the folks doing the refinancing will now have more income left over after making their monthly mortgage payment to spend on other things.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Did Bernanke Prevent Another Great Depression? / Politics / US Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a lecture given at George Washington University on March 27, 2012, the chairman of the Fed said that the US central bank's aggressive response to the 2007–2009 financial crisis and recession helped prevent a worldwide catastrophe. Various economic indicators were showing ominous signs at the time. After closing at 3.1 percent in September 2007, the yearly rate of growth of industrial production fell to minus 14.8 percent by June 2009. The yearly rate of growth of housing starts fell from 20.5 percent in January 2005 to minus 54.8 percent in January 2009.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, April 16, 2012

Why Has the American Economic System Failed? / Economics / US Economy

By: Jesse

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"We always want to keep in mind what the function, the purpose, of the economy is. The purpose of an economy is not producing GDP. It is increasing the welfare of citizens, and it is increasing the welfare of most citizens. And the American economic system has failed, and failed very badly. Most Americans today are worse off, most American households have lower real income adjusted for inflation than they had fifteen years ago."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, April 13, 2012

U.S. Jobless Claims, Wholesale Prices, and Trade Gap – Mixed Economic Message / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInitial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 380,000 during the week ended April 7, putting the four-week moving average back at 368,500 after posting readings below this level in the past two weeks. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless by one week, fell 98,000 to 3.251 million. The soft payroll gains in March and the currently weekly gain in claims support the view that labor market conditions are improving only gradually.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Economic Recovery - Who are We Kidding? / Economics / US Economy

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe global economy is healing, so we are told. Yet, the moment the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicates just that - and thus implying no additional stimulus may be warranted - the markets appear to throw a tantrum. In the process, the U.S. dollar has enjoyed what may be a temporary lift. To make sense of the recent turmoil, let's look at the drivers of this "recovery" and potential implications for the U.S. dollar, gold, bonds and the stock market.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Friday, April 06, 2012

Obama's Pretzel Logic / Politics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

As this fall's presidential election takes shape as a contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, the rhetoric out of both camps is becoming sharper and more ideological. Looking to exploit Governor Romney's increasingly close association with Wisconsin representative Paul Ryan (who has been mentioned as a potential vice presidential nominee), the President dedicated a lengthy address earlier this week to specifically heap scorn on Ryan's budget plan (Ryan is the chairman of the House Budget Committee). The attack lines used by the President not only reveal a preview of the fall campaign but also offer a glimpse of Obama's skewed views of the social and economic history of the United States.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, April 01, 2012

Plunge In U.S. Savings Rate Highlights Economic Risk / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI can't resist mentioning the irony of talking about personal income "growth" on April Fool's Day. You can't make this stuff up. The headlines read "US consumer Spending Rose 0.8% In February, Best Gain In 7 Months; Income Lagged"

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, April 01, 2012

Higher U.S. Gas Prices and the Illusion of Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe housing recovery seems to have been a temporary affair. Preliminary data frames March as weak as last October. It looks like lower interest rates boasted sales. Those rates are up from 4.72% to 5.02%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Saturday, March 31, 2012

The Fed's "Operation Twist". Europe and America. Grim Economic Prospects / Politics / US Economy

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSeven months after the official announcement on 9/21/11 of “Operation Twist” not much progress has been made at the long end of the market to reduce yields. The yield on the 10-year T-note has gone from 1.88% to 2.3% and the 30-year bond went from 3.03% to 3.41%. The episode has been marred by hedge fund and sovereign selling, which has left the short end a little higher, but the long end much higher. The question now is how much did this cost the Fed for such disappointing results?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, March 31, 2012

Money Is Starting to Burn a Hole in Households’ Pockets / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFebruary personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.8% month-to-month in nominal terms and 0.5% in real terms. In real terms, the February PCE increase was the strongest since last September. From some of the naysayers out there (David), we keep hearing that the economic “green shoots” that have emerged this past winter were due to the unusually mild temperatures. Really? One area of consumer expenditures that has not been boosted by the mild temperatures is electricity and natural gas.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

US Economy Hits Another Roubini Road-Hump: Is This The End? / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNouriel Roubini made his name out of a paper he co-authored in 2003 with someone whose name I forget, and everyone else did too. His thesis then was that the U.S. Current Account deficit (basically a long word for the trade deficit in Goods and Services) was unsustainable, so there would be a meltdown.

He was actually wrong for the right reasons; his idea was that the demand for U.S. Treasuries by foreigners was not enough to finance the Trade/Current Account Deficit, that part was right.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, March 23, 2012

U.S. Economy Dead Man Walking, The Crash of 2012 / Economics / US Economy

By: Casey_Research

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDoug Casey, Casey Research writes: In an interview with Louis James, the inimitable Doug Casey throws cold water on those celebrating the economic recovery.

[Skype rings: It's Doug Casey, calling from Cafayate, Argentina. He sounds tired, but pleased with himself.]

Doug: Lobo, get out your mower; it's time to cut down some green shoots again, and debunk a bit of the so-called recovery.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Is the U.S. Economy Really Healing? / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Please don’t believe the hype that the American economy is healing. While it is true that some data is showing improvement, the true fundamentals of the economy continue to erode.

America’s trade deficit hit $52.6 billion in January. That’s the highest level since October of 2008 and is clear evidence that we have fully reverted back to our under production, under saving and overconsumption habits with alacrity.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

U.S. Trade Deficit Rains on the Jobs Parade / Politics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEarlier this month the Labor Department reported that 227,000 new jobs were added to the economy in February, marking the third consecutive month of positive jobs growth. Many observers took the news as evidence that the recovery has taken hold in earnest, helping send the S&P 500 index to the highest level in nearly five years. However the very same day the Commerce Department reported that, after surging for much of the last year, the U.S. trade deficit increased to $52.6 billion for January, the largest monthly trade gap since October 2008. This second data set should dampen enthusiasm for the first.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

FOMC Meeting March 13, Fed Expected Stand Pat as U.S. Economic Recovery Remains Stable / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is widely expected that the Fed will stand pat at the March 13 FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, the Fed’s view about the economy should reflect nuanced modifications, which will offer hints about the next policy step.

The key question is if there is a need for additional policy action to support economic growth. Incoming economic data present a mixed picture. The ISM factory survey shows continued growth but at a slower pace compared with readings of recent months. The composite index moved down to 52.4 from 54.1 and the index measuring new orders stood at 54.9 from 57.6 in January (see Chart 1). Factory production data for February are scheduled for publication on March 16.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, March 12, 2012

U.S. Economy Rotting From Beneath / Economics / US Economy

By: EWI

Dear Investor,

Are you shocked that even with a 24-hour news cycle, crucial bits of economic news still fall through the cracks?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, March 09, 2012

Mohamed El-Erian, U.S. Economy is 'Muddling Along' / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer at PIMCO, spoke about the February U.S. jobs report and the European debt crisis on Bloomberg Television this morning. El-Erian said the economy is "muddling through" and that "one-off factors" have contributed to a recent stock market rally.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Thursday, March 08, 2012

Facts on the Horrific U.S. Long-Term Economic Decline / Politics / US Economy

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEnd of the American Dream writes: Most Americans know that things used to be much better in the United States, but they don't have the facts and the figures to back that belief up. Well, after reading the shocking statistics in this article nobody should be left with any doubt that things have gotten worse in America. There are less jobs, incomes are down, home values have plummeted, poverty is up, consumer debt is way up, dependence of the government has skyrocketed and government debt is totally out of control. Sadly, it hasn't really mattered which political party has had control over the White House. Things have gotten worse under Obama, they got worse under Bush, and they got worse under Clinton. We are in the midst of a horrific long-term economic decline and the American people desperately need to wake up.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Did U.S. Q4 GDP Data Pull In Future Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNo economics degree is required nor any complex analysis to understand how vulnerable the US economy is right now. In Q4 the economy expanded by 3% fueled by a 1.9% increase in inventory. By comparison Q3 inventory contracted (1.4%). In other words if the two year inventory trajectory did not suddenly reverse Q4 GDP quite possibly would have been flat to negative.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, March 03, 2012

U.S. Economy, Is This As Good As It Gets For Now? / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn Europe, the euro-zone debt crisis has pretty much faded from headlines. The arrangements that will bail out Greece - at least for now - have been pretty much finalized. The European Central Bank has made two huge rounds of low cost 3-year loans available to European banks, and that seems to be working to assure that the eurozone financial system will be okay for several years.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, March 01, 2012

Get the Dire Economic Stats You Won't Get from 24-Hour News / Economics / US Economy

By: EWI

Dear Investor,

Are you shocked that even with a 24-hour news cycle, crucial bits of economic news still fall through the cracks?

The financial media only seem to regurgitate the same, tired bullish proclamations about the year ahead. It will be better than 2011, they say, but the numbers don't lie. By some revealing measures, the economy is actually worse now than it was at the end of 2010.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Monday, February 27, 2012

U.S. Economy Extend and Pretend is Coming To An End / Politics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe real world revolves around cash flow. Families across the land understand this basic concept. Cash flows in from wages, investments and these days from the government. Cash flows out for food, gasoline, utilities, cable, cell phones, real estate taxes, income taxes, payroll taxes, clothing, mortgage payments, car payments, insurance payments, medical bills, auto repairs, home repairs, appliances, electronic gadgets, education, alcohol (necessary in this economy) and a countless other everyday expenses. If the outflow exceeds the inflow a family may be able to fund the deficit with credit cards for awhile, but ultimately running a cash flow deficit will result in debt default and loss of your home and assets. Ask the millions of Americans that have experienced this exact outcome since 2008 if you believe this is only a theoretical exercise. The Federal government, Federal Reserve, Wall Street banks, regulatory agencies and commercial real estate debtors have colluded since 2008 to pretend cash flow doesn’t matter. Their plan has been to “extend and pretend”, praying for an economic recovery that would save them from their greedy and foolish risk taking during the 2003 – 2007 Caligula-like debauchery.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Can the U.S. Economy Sidestep Europe’s Recession? / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

The surprises continue in the U.S. economic recovery.

This week’s reports include that home prices rose 0.7% in December, an encouraging ending to a year in which prices were down another 2.4% for the full year. And existing home sales rose 4.3% in January. Even more surprising, the inventory of unsold homes has now fallen to its lowest level since March, 2005.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Tax Receipts And Economic Expansion They Don't Add Up / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTaking economic data at face value "trusting" the seasonal adjustment is comparable to looking at an income statement and ignoring cash flow. In other words if the income statement says a company generated a profit well the cash flow will be there.

In the case of US economic data the closest thing we have is monthly tax receipts. I will be digging more into this data in the coming weeks and months to get a better sense just how well the economy is doing. For now I wanted to share an analysis based purely on tax receipts.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

January U.S. Retail Sales Decelerating Trend Remains in Place / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Retail sales increased 0.4% in January after a steady reading in December. The December estimate was revised down slightly from the earlier reading of 0.1%. In January, auto purchases in the retail sales report show a 1.1% decline, while unit auto sales increased to an annual rate of 14.2 million units in January vs. 13.6 million units in December. Unit auto sales matter in the computation of consumer spending. Gasoline sales rose 1.4% in January, a price related gain.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

U.S. Trade Deficit Data Belies Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street is extolling the virtues of our rising U.S. trade deficit as a sure sign the economy is well on the road to a full and viable recovery. It was reported last week that our level of trade imbalance jumped to a six-month high in December to $48.8 billion (up 3.7%), from $47.1 billion in the prior month. For all of 2011, the shortfall grew 12% to $558 billion, the most since 2008.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, February 12, 2012

US Trade Deficit Trouble On The Horizon / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI'm intrigued how studying one economic data point can give you valuable insight into others. One such example is that of the recent US trade deficit. The December trade deficit increased to $48.8 billion from $47 billion in November. Although this report will have a slight negative impact on Q4 GDP there is something possibly more telling about the trajectory of the US economy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, February 10, 2012

Lagging Economic Indicators and Nagging Debt Fundamentals / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter the first weekend of the Holiday shopping season, there were jubilant members of the mainstream press virtually jumping out of their skins at the news that holiday spending was looking strong. The initial counts showed an uptick in spending and that was all the MSM needed. Interestingly at the same time, the ‘bad cops’, namely the Fed and other central banks, were quietly talking about more easing, the rotten labor market, and the debt crisis in Europe, still bubbling beneath the surface. So what gives here? Is the economy back off to the races or are we merely continuing to kick the can down the road in spite of the obviously sour fundamentals?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, February 10, 2012

Of U.S. Jobs, Debts and Budgets / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_Mills

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleConsumer confidence spiked last December. Gas prices were lower for the third straight month, a mild early winter meant that many consumers paid less to heat their houses, the auto sector posted another strong month, consumers spent more on recreation and demand for student loans increased.

Consumers seemed inclined to spend and get deeper into debt.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, February 10, 2012

U.S. Economy Better Days Ahead? / Economics / US Economy

By: Puru_Saxena

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBIG PICTURE – Over the past month, US economic data has surpassed analysts’ expectations and this positive surprise has triggered a rally on Wall Street. 

You may recall that only a few months ago, the investment community was worried about Europe and many were questioning the survival of the single currency.  During that period, investors were dumping all sorts of risky assets and capital was flowing towards the world’s reserve currency and the most liquid government bond market.  Back then, European leaders were desperately trying to find a solution to the debt crisis and policymakers were engaged in what seemed to be never ending talks! 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Illusion Of Economic Recovery – Feelings & Facts / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as the final and total catastrophe of the currency involved." - Ludwig von Mises

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, February 05, 2012

U.S. ISM Economic Data Cracks Beneath The Surface / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI was going to discuss the payroll report this week but the highly questionable report has been somewhat "discussed to death." What has not been discussed though is the ISM data for January.

ISM is broken into two components, services and manufacturing. Interesting that services represents a larger portion of the economy yet is given less emphasis. But that is neither here nor there. Both reports came in stronger than expected with services at a 10 month high while both continue to remain above the 50 level which defines expansion (above) and contraction (below).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, February 03, 2012

U.S. Jobs, El-Erian U.S. Structural Issues Aren't Being Dealt With / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePIMCO CEO and co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu, Scarlet Fu and Dominic Chu this morning about today's jobs report and the global economy.

On jobs, El-Erian said that "let's not also forget the numbers outside these headlines...we should not lose sight that we have structural issues that are not being dealt with."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

U.S. Real Consumer Spending Falls in December / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal consumer spending slipped 0.1% in December after postings in October and November. All major components – durable goods (-0.1%), nondurables (-0.1%) and services (-0.1%) – fell in December and trimmed the pace of consumer spending in the fourth quarter.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, January 28, 2012

U.S. Economy Waist Deep in the Big Muddy / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

With its announcement this week that it will keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014, the Federal Reserve has put another large crack into the foundations underlying the US dollar. In a misguided attempt to provide clarity and transparency, Ben Bernanke has instead laid out a simple road map for economists and investors to follow. The signposts are easily understood: the Fed will stop at nothing in pursuing its goals of creating phantom GDP growth, holding down unemployment, propping up stock and housing prices, and monetizing government debt. To do so, it will continue to pursue a policy of negative interest rates, while ignoring the collateral damage of unsustainable debt, virulent inflation, misallocated resources and credit, suffering yield-dependent retirees, and a devalued U.S. currency.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 20, 2012

Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims and Housing Starts All Favourable Aspects / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in December, after posting a similar reading in November. The energy price index inched down 1.3% in December, marking the third consecutive decline. The recent increase in oil prices should be reflected in the January CPI report. The food price index increased 0.2% in December putting the year-to-year gain at 4.7% vs. 1.5% in all of 2010. The energy price index moved up 6.6% in 2011 compared with a 7.7% jump in 2010. The 3.0% increase in the overall CPI in 2011 reflects these gains as well as an acceleration of the core CPI, which excludes food and energy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 20, 2012

Fed’s Beige Book Paints a Rosier U.S. Economic Picture as Employment Improves / Economics / US Economy

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released its latest Beige Book on Wednesday, January 11th. In it, U.S. central bank officials included in the survey indicated that U.S. economic conditions in their respective regions seemed to have improved somewhat in December of 2011 compared with conditions observed the previous month.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Economic Reports Underscore More Positives of the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday’s economic reports present a bullish picture of the U.S economy. Industrial production in December was strong and optimism of homebuilders improved in January, while wholesale prices fell.

Industrial production rose 0.4% in December after declining 0.3% during November. The 0.9% jump in factory production, which accounts for the bulk of total industrial production, stands out in today’s report after a 0.4% drop in November. Factory production rose at an annual rate of 3.9% in the fourth quarter vs. a 5.00% increase in third quarter that represents a rebound from the Japan disaster. Production of factory goods was widespread in December with wood products, primary metals, computers, machinery, motor vehicles, and aerospace equipment posting noticeable gains.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

U.S. Economy GDP Forecasts 2012 and Recession Odds / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCourtesy of Doug Short. On Friday of next week (January 27th) we’ll get the Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal’s January Survey of economists is now available. Let’s see what their crystal ball is telling them about Q4 GDP (download Excel File).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Declining Trend of US Exports Warrants Close Watching / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe trade deficit of the U.S. widened to $47.75 billion in November from $43.27 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports of goods and services have dropped for two consecutive months, while exports of goods adjusted for fell 1.5% in November after posting gains in each of the two prior months. Imports of goods and services also advanced in November. The October-November data imply that a widening of the trade deficit in the fourth quarter is a negative for GDP growth.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 13, 2012

U.S. Retail Sales Strong Q4, But Underlying Momentum is Slowing / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Retail sales rose only 0.1% in December, after a 0.4% jump in November. The strong performance of retail sales in November and December has given a lift to total retail sales in the fourth quarter. It is nearly certain that consumer spending in the fourth quarter (+2.5%, forecast) will exceed that of the third quarter (+1.7%).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Fed Dismisses U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed is becoming more concerned about the sustainability of the U.S. recovery, just as the economy looks to be gaining momentum. The unemployment rate has dropped from 9.4% in December of 2010, to 8.5% twelve months later. The American economy has added 1.5 million jobs over the past year, according to the establishment survey of employment, while the household survey shows we have averaged a monthly gain of 230,000 jobs over the past six months. Meanwhile, the average work week and hourly earnings also showed improvement in the December Nonfarm payroll report. In addition, Gross Domestic Product has increased for nine consecutive quarters and is anticipated to post just under a 3% annualized growth in Q4 2011, up from 1.8% during the prior quarter.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Outlook of Small Businesses Improves, But Still Short of Levels Seen in Good Economic Times / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Small Business Optimism Index moved up to 93.8 during December from 92 in the prior month. The improvement is noteworthy and it is the highest since February 2011. However, the level of the index is within the range seen during the recession (see Chart 1).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Headwinds That Could Rock the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The key question about the growth trajectory of the U.S. economy for 2012 is if domestic economic momentum that is visible in bullish economic reports of past – ISM factory survey data, Q4 auto sales, and December employment report – will prevail in the rest of 2012 and offset headwinds from Europe (and its associated ramifications) and the setback from a decelerating trend of business activity in China. In the context, we will be providing periodic updates as economic reports are published.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

US Economic Forecast for 2012 and the Presidential Election Year Cycle / Economics / US Economy

By: BATR

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen it comes to business cycles, the former rules no longer seem to apply. The seminal events that changed the economic landscape after the 2008 financial crash still points to an uncertain future and marginal recovery. If you watch CNBC or Bloomberg business news, you hear that a modest recovery is in place. Accepting this kind of reporting may temporarily make you feel better, but in the real economy, the prospects for a rebound are mere fiction. Prosperity only exists for the chums of the insider financial system, who are immune from actual market conditions. Under the privileged and favoritism model, political subsidies and bailouts are more important than creative industry or innovative execution.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, December 30, 2011

Five U.S. Economy Economic Blunders of 2011 and Five Fixes for 2012 / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes : Government's ability to fix the economy's problems may be limited, but it at least should try not to make matters worse. Unfortunately - but not surprisingly - many of the things that happened in Washington this year did the U.S. economy more harm than good. More than two years after the official end to the recession, the U.S. economy is still suffering through sluggish growth and an 8.6% unemployment rate. "They've been wrong from the beginning, and they're still wrong," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald of U.S. government policymakers. "It makes you wonder if any of these people passed Economics 101." That said, here are five of the government's worst economic blunders of 2011:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, December 18, 2011

U.S. Economy Center Cannot Hold, Where Is My Return to the Mean? / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTurning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

- The Second Coming, by William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Fed Stands Pat as the Curtain Closes on 2011 / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed upgraded the performance of the U.S. economy compared with its assessment in November. The FOMC vote to stand pat was nearly unanimous, with only one dissent. Chicago Fed President Evans dissented as he would have preferred additional policy accommodation. The economy is now seen to be growing at a moderate pace despite the slowing conditions abroad. The Fed noted that while there are "some improvements in the labor market," the "unemployment rate remains elevated."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Drop in U.S. Oil Imports Leads to Lower Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The trade deficit narrowed to $43.5 billion in October from $44.2 billion in the prior month. A 0.8% drop in nominal exports of good and service and a 1.0% drop in imports of goods and services resulted in an overall improvement of the trade gap. Real exports of goods increased 1.2% but real imports of goods fell 0.3% in October. Oil imports declined in October (2.8%) reflecting a lower quantity and price.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, December 05, 2011

U.S. Economic System Misunderstanding Capitalism / Economics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs expected, the euphoria died overnight. On Wednesday, the Dow was up nearly 500 points. Thursday, it fell 23 points.

More and more people are coming to the same conclusion. The bull market is a fraud. And the system is corrupt. And they’re right. But not for the reasons they think.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, December 02, 2011

The U.S. Consumer is Finally Bouncing Back / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes: Consumers shed housing debt in the third quarter while ratcheting up spending elsewhere, raising hope that the single biggest driver of the U.S. economy - consumer spending - is back on the rise.

Mortgage balances fell 1.3% in the July-September period, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, while overall household debt shrank by 0.6%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, December 01, 2011

Why the U.S. Economy Will Be Weaker Than Expected in 2012 / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: Anyone who hoped the U.S. economy would get back on track in 2011 was sorely disappointed.

The European sovereign debt crisis and the abysmal failure of policymakers to take effective action undermined any chance we had at a strong recovery.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, December 01, 2011

U.S. Economic Reports Paint a Bullish Picture / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) of the National Association of Realtors rose 10.4% to 93.3 in October, reflecting gains in all four regions of the nation. The PHSI is a indicator of actual of sales of existing homes with a lead of 1-2 months. The year-to-year increase of the PHSI is noteworthy. However, the issue of contract cancellations is a dark cloud hanging over the housing market. In recent months, the percentage of realtors reporting contract cancellations due to appraisal problems and failure to obtain credit has risen. Therefore, the October PHSI could be an exaggeration of the likely sales of home that will take place. Nonetheless, the increase of the October PHSI is a positive development in the housing sector.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Yellen is Supportive of Additional Fed Action to Support U.S. Economic Activity / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed's Vice Chair Janet Yellen presented a case for additional Fed action to support economic activity in the United States. These two excerpts (emphasis added) from her speech indicate her opinion about the necessity for Fed action

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Is Economic Optimism Warranted Or Not? / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Things are not always what they seem; the first appearance deceives many; the intelligence of a few perceives what has been carefully hidden" - Author unknown

Recent economic data has surprised to the upside and once again hope springs eternal. Like a school of bait fish many economists and market pundits seem to be reversing course scrambling to highlight the positives in the economy while ignoring the structural problems that still exist.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

U.S. October Retail Sales Bode Well for the Final Quarter of 2011 / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Retail sales rose 0.5% in October after a 1.1% increase in September.  Unit auto sales matter in the computation of GDP, not the retail sales tally.  Unit auto sales rose to 13.26 million units in October from 13.1 million units in September.  These numbers imply that auto sales will make a positive contribution to spending in October.  Gasoline sales are largely influenced by the price of gasoline; the 0.4% drop in gasoline sales in October reflects lower prices.  Gasoline prices show a downward trend in the early days of November, implying a possible drop of the price index in November. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 11, 2011

U.S. Exports Narrows Trade Gap, Possibly Upward Revision of 2011:Q3 GDP / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The trade deficit narrowed to $43.1 billion in September from $44.9 billion in August. The improvement of the trade gap reflects a 1.4% increase in exports of goods and services of the United States and a small gain of 0.3% in the nation’s imports of goods and services. Although the inflation adjusted petroleum trade deficit widened slightly in September ($11.9n billion vs. $11.5 billion in August), the non-petroleum trade deficit narrowed ($35.4 billion vs. $37.2 billion in August).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, November 09, 2011

The Continuing Zombification of the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe have been exploring the zombification of the US economy. Major industries – finance, health, education and defense – have been taken over by zombies, parasites whose real interest is to transfer wealth to themselves, from the part of the economy that remains productive.

As the economy becomes more zombified, the part of it dominated by these non-productive industries increases, leaving fewer resources for the productive part. And as the productive part weakens, so does the entire economy’s ability to produce real wealth, or grow its way out of debt.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, November 05, 2011

Stupid Government Tricks, Let’s Tax the Millionaires, Where Will the Jobs Come From? / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI find myself in Liam's taxi on the beautiful drive to Kilkenny through the Irish countryside for a few hours this very early Friday morning, so what better time to begin writing about employment than in a country that is struggling, just as most of the developed world is, to find good jobs for its people. I'm on my way to a conference that will talk about the economics that is driving the world's leading governments to distraction in Cannes. Is Greece going to vote? Take the money? Will it be an orderly default? Should Ireland default? Whatever I write, the situation will change as soon as I hit the send button tonight. (For the record, I think Greece should have a referendum. You don't go into what they are getting ready to suffer without national buy-in. No elitist deals. Put it to the people to decide, one way or the other.)

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 04, 2011

U.S. Economic Productivity Improves, Labor Cost Remains Contained / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Productivity of the U.S. economy rose 3.1% in the third quarter, after posting decline in the first-half of the year. The downside of the improvement in productivity in the present environment is that it prevents firms from increasing payrolls.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, October 29, 2011

U.S. Consumer Spending is Likely to Show Tepid Growth Once Again / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Real consumer spending increased 0.5% in September after a steady reading in August. In the third quarter, consumer spending increased at an annual rate of 2.4% vs. 0.7% in the second quarter. At first blush this is impressive, but digging further leads to a different story. The saving rate of households fell to 3.6% in September, putting the quarterly average at 4.1% vs. 5.0% in the first-half of the year.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, October 28, 2011

U.S. Real GDP Momentum Pickup Buys Time Before Fed Acts Again / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter after registering an abysmally slow performance in the first-half of the year (+0.9%). The headline and details of the third quarter GDP report are both encouraging given that considerations of a double dip surfaced in recent weeks.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Near Recession Low in October / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.6 points to 39.8 in October. This reading is approaching the recession low of 25.3 recorded in February 2009. The Present Situation Index fell 7.0 points to 26.3, while the Expectations Index dropped to 48.7 from 55.1 in September. Essentially, the latest consumer confidence numbers are raising a red flag in an already weak economic environment.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, October 15, 2011

U.S. September Retail Sales Noteworthy Pickup, But Q3 Consumer Spending is Tepid / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRetail sales rose 1.1% in September, after an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in August (previously reported as unchanged). Strong auto sales (+3.6%) and a 1.2% jump in gasoline sales were only part of the story. Purchases of apparel (+1.3%), furniture (+1.1%), and general merchandise (+0.7%) also advanced in September. In the third quarter, total retail sales increased at an annual rate of 4.5% vs. 4.7% in the second quarter. Excluding gasoline, retail sales move up at annual rate 4.6% in the third quarter vs. 3.1% in the second quarter.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, October 14, 2011

Cash Rich Firms Will Not Hire and Invest Until Demand Gains Momentum / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNon-financial corporate firms were holding $2.047 trillion in liquid assets in the second quarter of 2011. These liquid assets (Sum of foreign deposits, checkable deposits/currency, time & savings deposits, money market fund shares, security RPs, commercial paper, US government securities, municipal securities, and mutual fund shares) as a percent of short-term liabilities are close to historical highs (see Chart 1).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Poor Sales Continue to Haunt Small Businesses / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The September survey of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) shows an improvement in the outlook of small businesses. The Small Business Optimism Index rose to 88.9 in September from 88.1 in August after a string of six straight monthly declines, which is good news.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, October 06, 2011

The Way Out of Our Economic Mess / Economics / US Economy

By: Terry_Coxon

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTerry Coxon, Casey Research writes: "A rock and a hard place" is a long-running theme of Casey Research publications. It refers to the dilemma the US government has wandered into with its continued policy of rescue inflation. The "rock" is what will happen if the Fed pauses for long in printing still more money – the collapse of an economy burdened by an accumulation of mistakes that rescue inflation has been keeping at bay. The "hard place" is the disruptive price inflation that becomes more likely (and likely more severe) with every new dollar the Fed prints to keep the effects of those mistakes suppressed.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, October 05, 2011

The Great Default and the Great Divergence / Economics / US Economy

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe #1 Historical Question Is Unanswered
I do not refer here to a historical question raised by a book said to be revealed by God. I refer to a question that historians have struggled with for a century without any agreed-upon solution. It is this:

What happened between 1780 and 1820 that produced compound per capita economic growth in Britain and the United States of approximately 2% per year?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, October 05, 2011

Bernanke Presents a Pessimistic Economic View, Reassures Fed Stands Ready to Support / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

At the outset, Bernanke’s testimony to the Joint Economic Committee listed positive developments of the current economic recovery – improvement of factory production, narrowing of the trade gap compared with the period prior to 2007, strong equipment and software spending, and a more sound banking and financial sector.  The rest of the testimony was significantly more subdued and pessimistic.  He reiterated his observations from last month that consumers are very cautious in their spending decisions as their net worth has dropped and that households “continue to struggle with high debt burdens and reduced access to credit.” More importantly, Bernanke sees “more sluggish job growth in the period ahead.”  He also noted that the FOMC has revised down its projections of GDP growth.  The weak housing market was also part of the testimony.  In the prepared testimony and Q&A session, Chairman Bernanke stressed the importance of solving housing market issues. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, October 02, 2011

U.S. Consumer Spending in August Puts Q3 Change at Tepid Mark / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Real consumer spending held steady in August inclusive of a 0.1% increase in spending of durable goods and services and a 0.4% drop in purchases of services. Chairman Bernanke’s concern about the decelerating trend of consumer spending is justified. Real consumer spending grew only 1.77% from a year ago and real disposable income also shows a loss of momentum (see Chart 4). The July-August consumer spending numbers point a tepid increase in consumer spending in the third quarter, roughly 1.5%. This is slightly higher than the 0.7% increase in the second quarter but it is not a barnburner by any means.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, October 01, 2011

Real Pro-growth Tax Incentives to Save America / Economics / US Economy

By: Barry_Elias

There is a better way to optimize our scarce resources.

Six weeks ago, the following information and graphic of mine were published by Moneynews regarding government expenditures as a percentage of GDP.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, September 30, 2011

U.S. Q2 Real GDP Growth Revised Up, Jobless Claims Decline Partly Due to Technical Issues / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal GDP of the U.S. economy increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter, slightly higher than the earlier estimate of a 1.0% gain. The main reasons for the larger gain in GDP were stronger growth of structures, consumer service sector outlays, exports, and residential investment expenditures.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Thursday, September 22, 2011

US Corporations Moving to Offshore Tax Havens / Politics / US Economy

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the greatest detriments to job creation in the US is the overseas income deferral law. This unbelievable gift to transnational corporations is at the heart of free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing. Presently these corporations are sitting on $2.2 trillion in untaxed profits, which is costing the American taxpayer almost $800 billion in lost tax revenue if like in 2006 they are allowed to bring the funds back at 5-1/4% taxation. Those conglomerates want to bring those funds back into the US tax free, which means $1 trillion in lost taxes, taking advantage of the current financial situation in the US.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Fed is Measuring U.S. Economic Health by the Wrong Number / Economics / US Economy

By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson

Mark Twain once said, “To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” To the Federal Reserve — an institution employing an army of economists and academics — everything looks like an economic problem that needs to be quantitatively eased. As a result, the Fed is killing the economy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, September 15, 2011

U.S. Economy Suffers Lost Decade, The Great Middle Class Poverty / Economics / US Economy

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn yet another sign that the Great Recession cuts deep and long--the number of Americans living below the official poverty line reached 46.2 million, the highest in 52 years since the Census Bureau started tracking the figures in 1959.

The overall poverty rate also climbed to a 17-year high at 15.1%, which means 1 in 6 Americans are living below poverty line largely due to the high unemployment and underemployment rate.  The official poverty line for 2010 is defined as an annual income of $22,314 for a family of four, and $11,139 for an individual.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Twin Economic Problems: Employment and Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe elevated unemployment rate remains at the top of the Fed’s worry list. Nearly as important is the recent trend of consumer spending. Bernanke’s speech of September 8 included an important takeaway on consumer spending:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, September 09, 2011

Fragile State of the U.S. Economy, Bernanke Hints at Additional Monetary Policy Easing / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChairman Bernanke summarized the fragile status of the U.S. economy and indicated that the Fed has tools that it is willing to employ to provide support to the economy.  He did not dwell on the specifics of the tools.  The key passage of the speech indicating that the Fed is vigilant and will act promptly is noteworthy:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, September 02, 2011

El-Erian Says Today's Employment Report is Grim and Scary / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePimco’s Mohamed El-Erian and Gene Sperling, director of the National Economic Council, spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Betty Liu this morning about the unemployment report and the state of the U.S. economy.

El-Erian said that the unemployment report is “grim and scary” and that “hopefully it will ring alarm bells in Washington.”

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

What's Going On With The U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere's a very good post over at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis today. ("US in recession right here, right now") Blogger Mike Shedlock makes the case that the economy may already be in recession. It's all matter of whether if one uses the the consumer price index (CPI) or the the BEA's measure of price inflation to make their calculations. There's a fair amount of technical jargon to wade through in the article, but the charts are pretty persuasive and--if nothing else--they reinforce most people's suspicions that the economy is getting worse by the day.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

U.S. Consumer Spending Pickup in July Lacks Durability / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Real consumer spending increased 0.5% in July after holding steady in May and June.  Consumer outlays of durables (+2.0%) raised the overall reading; it was largely an increase in purchases of cars (12.2 million vs. 11.6 million in June).  The 0.5% gain in service expenditures reflects a big increase in health care expenditures.  Purchases of non-durables declined 0.3% in July vs. a 0.4% increase in the prior month. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, August 29, 2011

Fed Can't Fix U.S. Economy Without Washington's Help / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes: The U.S. Federal Reserve has exhausted nearly all of its resources in trying to help the U.S. economy, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a speech Friday at Jackson Hole, WY.

Now it's up to the federal government to do its part by fixing U.S. fiscal policy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, August 29, 2011

Field Of U.S. Economic Dreams / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"If you build it he will come." - Field Of Dreams

"We built it and he did not show." - US economic reality

The consumer driven recession has begun. Keeping it very simple of the four GDP components (consumer, fixed investment, government and net trade) the consumer has simply rolled over. In Q1 2011 the consumer contributed 1.46% to the 0.4% total GDP. In other words if it was not for consumer growth or even if .5% of that growth was removed the economy contracted in Q1 2011.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Trade With China and India Will Not Collapse America's Economy / Politics / US Economy

By: Gary_North

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor over half a century, I have read warnings that free trade is a threat to America. The freer it gets, the more we are told that slave labor in Asia is threatening the workers of America.

We hear calls for fair trade. Who is to decide what is fair trade? Congress. Ah, yes: Congress. The source of fairness if ever there was one. No special interests there, putting their PAC-filled fingers on the balance scale of justice.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Bernanke Keeps Door Open for Additional Stimulus on Weaker Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChairman Bernanke stressed that the Fed “has a range of tools that can be used to provide additional stimulus” but he was silent on specifics. He mentioned that the costs and benefits of these options were discussed at the August 9 meeting. These details will be available when minutes of this meeting are published on August 30. He reiterated parts of the August 9 policy statement noting that “the Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger recovery in a context of price stability.”

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, August 27, 2011

The Fed Will Allow Business Cycle To Play Out Longer This Time! / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

The Federal Reserve played its part well, along with the Treasury Department, the White House, and Congress, in helping prevent the financial meltdown of 2008-2009 from turning the ‘Great Recession’ of 2007-2009 into the next Great Depression.

But its solo intervention with its QE2 quantitative easing program last year to boost the again faltering economy seems to have only delayed the business cycle.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Is The U.S. Price Index Inflating Real GDP? / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

There is no shortage of correlations such as the one shown below (PPI VS real GDP) that brings into question the real GDP reported over the past two years. In other words real GDP appears somewhat inflated since Q3 2009. You can substitute PPI in the chart below and find many similar relationships or should I say "divergences from reality."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Widening U.S. Trade Deficit Adds to Fears of Global Economic Slowdown / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: The widening U.S. trade deficit surprised analysts last week by reaching a level not seen since October 2008, while the decline in exports added to growing evidence of a global economic slowdown.

The U.S. Commerce Department announced last Thursday that the trade gap grew 4.4%, to $53.1 billion from $50.8 billion in May. Economists had expected it to shrink to $48 billion.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Falling Oil Prices Will Stimulate Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

As shown in Chart 6, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $81.31 on August 8, the lowest price since November 23, 2010. Some talking heads on the cable financial news channels will tell you that this decline in oil prices could be the catalyst for stronger growth in consumer spending in the coming months. Could be, but might not be. You see, it all depends on why the price of crude oil has been falling since late April. If the price of crude is falling because there has been an increase in the supply of crude oil, then yes, this decline in the price of crude is positive for consumer spending and economic growth in general. But, if the decline in the price of crude is due to a decrease in the demand for crude oil, then the decline in the price of crude oil is symptomatic of weakening global economic growth.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Waiting for an Inverted Yield Curve to Signal an Imminent Recession? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon’t hold your breath. As Chart 1 shows, moving from a positive spread between the yield on the Treasury 10-year security and the fed funds rate has more often than not in the past 55 years signaled the commencement of a recession on the near-term horizon. There have been a few miscues – instances when a recession occurred without the spread turning negative prior to the onset of the recession and some instances when the spread turned negative but a recession did not ensue. So, like so many other leading indicators, the negative-spread recession indicator is not foolproof.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Five Things You Need to Know About the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: David_Galland

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: At any point during the recent negotiations in Washington over the debt, did you seriously think for even a second that the U.S. was about to default?

Of course, in time the U.S. government (along with many others) will default. However, they are highly unlikely to do so by decree or even through the sort of legislative inaction recently on display. Rather, it will come about through the time-honored tradition of screwing debtors via the slow-roasting method of monetary inflation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

U.S. Economic Fundamentals Are More Important, Debt-Ceiling Deal is an Induced Necessity / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn July 31, President Obama, Senator Reid, and House Speaker Boehner shook hands on a deal that will be voted on later today. The deal negotiated would lead to a total reduction of the budget deficit by $2.1 trillion during the 2012-2021 period. It also includes raising the debt ceiling between $2.1 trillion and $2.4 trillion by the final months of 2012. The timing and magnitude of the spending cuts as indicated in Table 3 of the latest scoring from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO's assessment of new legislation)point to discretionary spending cuts in the entire 2012-2021 period. Lower federal government outlays in 2012 in a fragile economic environment are a setback to economic growth.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, July 31, 2011

U.S. Real GDP Revisions Indicate Economy Still in Recovery Phase / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter after a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in the first quarter (previously estimated to have increased 1.9%). From a year ago, real GDP advanced only 1.6%, the smallest increase in the current recovery.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, July 28, 2011

U.S. Businesses Appear to Have Selective Uncertainty / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

I keep hearing that what is holding U.S. businesses back from expanding and hiring is “uncertainty.” Exactly what new types of uncertainty businesses face in the current environment vs. past environments is rarely spelled out. But if, in fact, businesses are paralyzed due to uncertainty, I would not expect them to be stepping up their purchases of capital equipment. After all, capital equipment has a relatively long life. If businesses were unusually uncertain about the long-term outlook, they would be more reluctant to make longer-term commitments, which the purchase of capital equipment is. Rather, if businesses were unusually uncertain about the future, they might be more inclined to hire workers, who, after all, can be dismissed on short notice if conditions were to change suddenly.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Outcome of Tax Cuts Following the 2001 Recession - Noteworthy Facts / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA) and Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA) lowered taxes on personal income, dividends and capital gains.  Personal income tax rate for the highest bracket was reduced in steps from 39.6% (tax rate prior to EGTRRA) to 35% (after the JGTRRA legislation).  These changes of income tax rates had sunset provisions and were set to expire in 2010; but they were extended under the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 (TRUIRJCA). 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Continued Sluggish U.S. Economic Growth Expected Through 2012 / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith this commentary, we unveil our first formal forecast of U.S. economic activity and interest rates for 2012. The forecast for real GDP growth is only marginally better in 2012 vs. the forecast for 2011 - on a Q4/Q4 basis, 2.45% in 2012 vs. 2.20% in 2011. We do expect some forward momentum to build in the second half of 2012 with respect to real GDP growth and for this momentum to intensify in 2013. The reason for this building momentum is an expectation of a resumption of Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) early in 2012 and/or a pick-up in bank credit creation. Because our forecast is for below-potential real economic growth, our view is that the unemployment rate will creep up from its Q2:2011 average of 9.1%, peaking at 9.5% in Q3:2012. It will not be until 2013, that any sustained meaningful decline in the unemployment rate sets in.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Factory Production Decelerating Even After Excluding Autos / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Industrial production moved up 0.1% in June, following two consecutive monthly declines. Supply chain problems from the Japanese natural disaster led to a decline in auto production in each of the three months of the second quarter. Production at the nation's utilities rose 0.9% in June following a 2.0% drop in May.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, July 15, 2011

U.S. Q2 Retail Sales Suggest Mild Gain in Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Retail sales rose only 0.1% during June after a revised 0.1% drop in May.  The tally of retail sales for the second quarter shows a significant deceleration in the second quarter (+4.4%) after a 10.5% annualized gain in the first quarter, which partly reflects the vast swings of gasoline prices.  Auto sales advanced 0.8% in June according to today's retail sales report, which is different from the unit sales data for June (11.5 million units vs. 11.8 million units in May). 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

This Is Not Economic Recovery, It's the Great Correction / Economics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

The fight for recovery is over. The feds have waved the white flag. Maybe…

The Labor Department came out with the latest employment numbers last week. They were atrocious. Only about a fifth as many new jobs as economists expected. Which shows you three things.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

April's Narrower U.S. Trade Deficit Looks to Have Been a Fluke / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

In price-adjusted terms, the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened by almost $3.9 billion in May compared with its narrowing of $5.7 billion in April. Real U.S. exports of goods decreased 1.5% or $1.5 billion in May. Real U.S. imports of goods increased 1.6% or $2.3 billion. In April, imports contracted by $4.6 billion. This occurred in part because of the interruption in imports from Japan of motor vehicle parts. Imports of Japanese-produced motor vehicle parts rebounded in May and likely did so in June, too (see Chart 2). 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Has the 120-year Inflation Deflation Cycle Bottomed Early? / Economics / US Economy

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn light of the impressive equities market rally from 2009 through 2011, some are wondering if perhaps the economic long wave has bottomed early. I recently received an email asking a question that is relevant to our discussion. He writes, "Suppose the big 120-year cycle hit a few years early, which for a cycle this long would certainly be possible. Perhaps the March 2009 low was the deflationary 120-year cycle low point, and the bull market just carries on for several more years. Is this possible?"

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, July 09, 2011

U.S. Jobs Report Rains On Soft Spot Hopes! / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Labor Department’s employment report on Friday pretty much took the hope out of Washington and Wall Street’s expectations that the economic slowdown in the first half of the year was just a soft spot that will quickly be replaced by strong growth in the current quarter and second half.

The economy slowed to only 1.8% growth in the 1st quarter and economic reports have been even more dismal since, to say nothing of the Fed’s QE2 stimulus program having expired at the end of June.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, July 08, 2011

Warren Buffett on U.S. Housing Market, Employment, Economy and Debt / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWarren Buffett spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu for an hour this morning from the annual Allen & Co. Sun Valley Conference in Idaho. Buffett commented on today's job numbers, saying to "bet very heavily" against a double-dip recession and that employment will gain "big time" on a housing recovery.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, July 07, 2011

U.S. Payrolls, Keeping Things In Perspective / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

The calls for an economic soft patch are growing louder in the face of the ADP print today above expectations. The 13 weeks of weekly claims above 400,000 is not being dismissed simply not discussed.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, July 02, 2011

U.S. Economy Half Year Review, We Should Be OK, Except... / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe are halfway through the year, and what a ride it has been. Today I will share my thoughts on what the next six months could look like, and endeavor to keep it short and simple, as we have a holiday weekend. There will be more than a few charts. What does the end of QE2 mean? What can we expect from Europe? Is a commodity bubble getting ready to burst? Is it really a bubble? There is a lot to cover.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Loses Ground / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 58.5 in June from 61.7 in the prior month.  The Expectations Index (72.4 vs. 76.6 in May) and the Present Situation Index (37.6 vs. 39.3) fell in June.  The soft labor market situation and rising food energy prices have played a role in reducing optimism of consumers. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

U.S. May Consumer Spending Augurs Poorly for 2011:Q2 / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal consumer spending fell 0.13% in May following a downwardly revised 0.06% drop in the prior month.  Rising gasoline prices have adversely affected consumer spending; purchases of gasoline (nominal) declined in May, the first decline since November.  Purchases of cars have dropped for three consecutive months, reflecting the supply chain problem from the natural disaster in Japan that has reduced the availability of cars (see Chart 2). 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, June 20, 2011

U.S. Economy 2011 Mid Year Forecast Update / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Stathis

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe story remains pretty much unchanged relative to what I have been discussing over the past several months.

Throughout our research publications I have been pointing to the impressive earnings from U.S. corporations. I have also noted numerous upward revisions in 2011 EPS, which of course implies a higher stock market. As a consequence, I have been bullish throughout this, as well as over the previous year. At the same time, I discussed my expectations of a weaker economy in the second half of the year.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, June 17, 2011

U.S. Mixed Economic Reports, Housing Starts Moved Up, Jobless Claims Declined / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic reports of the past two days present a mixed picture of underlying economic conditions.  Factory production data excluding autos moved up but factory surveys - Empire State Manufacturing Survey and factory report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia--point to a weakening of activity.  The National Association of Home Builders continue to believe that the housing market is in a slump, but today's housing starts data suggest a small turnaround.  Jobless claims numbers point to a small improvement, but the level of jobless claims is elevated.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Small Businesses Remain Pessimistic About the Near Term / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The survey of the National Federation of Independent Business continues to show a pessimistic outlook about business conditions in the near term.  The Small Business Optimism Index fell to 90.9 in May from 91.2 in the prior month.  It is important to note that the index has fallen for three straight months and the level of the index has failed to move up to levels seen during an expansionary phase of a business cycle.  

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

U.S. Weak Retail Sales Casts Shadow on Q2 Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Retail sales fell 0.1% in May, after a revised 0.3% increase in the prior month.  Retail sales last declined in June 2010 led by lower gasoline prices.  Auto sales dropped in May, which is consistent with the unit auto sales numbers published earlier in the month. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Key Economic Reports Prior to June 21-22 FOMC Meeting / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is widely recognized that the U.S. economy has lost momentum in the second quarter. The FOMC meeting of June 21-22 and Chairman Bernanke's press conference of June 22 will focus on this aspect. In the meanwhile, a string of economic reports are scheduled for publication prior to the FOMC meeting. Of these reports, retail sales, Consumer Price Index, industrial production, and housing starts should be the major market movers and they will have a bearing on the policy outlook presented after the close of the FOMC meeting.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, June 09, 2011

U.S. Economy Brakes Even Before Fed Takes Its Foot Off the Accelerator / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn our April 28 update, we emphasized that our forecast was in “transition” from stronger to weaker in large part depending on the behavior of bank credit. This month we have made the transition to a significantly weaker outlook, not only because of the current behavior of bank credit, but also because of the current behavior of the overall economy. With regard to the latter, even before the Federal Reserve has terminated its second round of quantitative easing – that is, even before the Fed has taken its foot off the monetary accelerator – the underlying pace of U.S. economic activity already appears to be coming in weaker than we had anticipated. Consistent with our downwardly-revised real GDP growth outlook, we have revised up our forecast for the unemployment rate. In addition, we have revised down our forecast for the yield levels of the Treasury 2- and 10-year securities. (See tables at the end of this commentary containing our current and April 28 forecasts.) If we are close to the mark on our second-half GDP and unemployment rate forecasts, we could envision another round of Fed quantitative easing commencing early in 2012 with no Fed policy interest rate hikes occurring until early 2013.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Destruction of US Manufacturing, Confessions of an Economic Terrorist / Economics / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJust in case anyone has an idea to dispatch seventy-two SEALS by helicopter to deliver me a tap-tap, like they did to that other guy, save your money, I’m a minnow.

If you want to know the real “culprits”, have a look at this chart:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Sunday, June 05, 2011

Freak-a-nomics and the United States of McDonalds / Politics / US Economy

By: Patrick_Henningsen

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis is one of those Freak-a-nomic statistics that, if you were in government, you wouldn’t ever want it to be released to the public, especially during a protracted recession like we are currently witnessing in the US. No would want to admit that the Golden Arches are holding up the American economy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, June 02, 2011

U.S. Construction Spending Remains Lackluster / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Total construction outlays rose 0.4% in April, reflecting an increase in home improvement outlays (+7.6%) and expenditures of non-residential outlays (+0.5%).  Outlays pertaining to new housing (-0.9%) fell in April. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, June 01, 2011

Falling U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Wipes Out Gains of Last Six Months / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 60.8 in May from 66.0 in the prior month.  The 5.2-point decline wiped out a large part of the improvement of the last six months.  The Present Situation (39.3 vs. 40.2) and Expectations (75.2 vs. 83.2) indexes both fell in May. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Offshoring has Destroyed the US Economy / Politics / US Economy

By: Paul_Craig_Roberts

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThese are discouraging times, but once in a blue moon a bit of hope appears. I am pleased to report on the bit of hope delivered in March of 2011 by Michael Spence, a Nobel prize-winning economist, assisted by Sandile Hlatshwayo, a researcher at New York University. The two economists have taken a careful empirical look at jobs offshoring and concluded that it has ruined the income and employment prospects for most Americans.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, May 26, 2011

The American Manufacturing Crisis and Why it Matters / Economics / US Economy

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDespite the denial chorus of the same politicians, financiers, and economists who told us prior to 2008 that our financial sector was fine, the American public is increasingly aware of the truth: American manufacturing is in a state of deep crisis. (And ,as I argued in a previous article, the recent small uptick in this sector doesn’t change that fact.)

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Greece Economy Structural Problems Compared to US / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany countries have restrictions and requirements on doctors, nurses, lawyers etc. Greece carries the idea to extreme.

According to Keep Talking Greece "closed professions" include beauticians, drama and dance school instructors, bakers, antiques dealers, insurance agents, insurance consultants, employment consultants, diagnostics centre staff, translators, divers, cameramen, driving school instructors, cab drivers, tourist bus drivers, newspaper stand owners, electricians, sound technicians, private school owners, tobacco sellers, gun manufacturers and sellers, hairdressers, private investigators, port workers, real estate agents, lifeguards, carpenters, financiers, opticians, auditors, movie/theatre director and even car mechanics.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, May 23, 2011

Is the U.S. Economic Growth Spurt Over? / Economics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs you know, we’ve been wondering about the exhaustion of the Industrial Revolution innovation…and the bankruptcy of the Social Welfare state as a result.

We take for granted that a healthy economy “grows.” Our governments depend on it to pay the bills. Our investments depend on it too; we buy investments that we hope will become more valuable as sales and profits grow along with the economy. But what if all of our assumptions about what is “normal” are wrong? What if the growth spurt we have known for the last 300 years was the exception, not the rule? And what if it were now coming to an end?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, May 20, 2011

How a State Light-bulb Law Could Revive the American Factory / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: South Carolina is close to pulling off a dramatic end-run around the federal government.

If that state succeeds, the end result could have a serious impact on every U.S. manufacturing industry from cars to toilets.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

U.S. Industrial Production Held Back Partly Related to Natural Disaster in Japan / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Industrial production held steady in April after a 0.7% in March.  The 1.7% jump in utilities production and 0.8% increase in mining output offset the 0.4% decline in factory production.  The 8.9% decline in auto output was the major reason for the flat headline.  Excluding motor vehicle output, factory production rose 0.2% in April after a 0.3% gain in the prior month.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, May 13, 2011

Why Economic Growth is Dead / Economics / US Economy

By: Dr_Martenson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJohn Rolls Submits: The end of the second round of quantitative easing (QE II) is going to be a complete disaster for the paper markets -- specifically commodities, stocks, and then finally bonds, in that order, with losses of 20% to 50% by the end of October. The only thing that will arrest the plunge will be QE III, although we should remain alert to the likelihood that it will be named something else in an attempt to obscure what it really is. Perhaps it will be known as the "Muni Asset Trust Term Liquidity Facility" or the "American Prime Purchase Program," but whatever it is called, it will involve hundreds of billions of thin-air dollars being printed and dumped into the financial system.  

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, May 13, 2011

U.S. Retail Sales, Wholesale Price Inflation, Jobless Claims Economic Worries / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic data published this morning contain bothersome aspects.  Retail sales recorded the smallest monthly increase since July 2010, initial jobless claims remain at an elevated level, and wholesale prices moved up, inclusive of core prices which exclude food and energy. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, May 12, 2011

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens on Higher Oil Prices In March / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe trade deficit widened to $48.18 billion in March from $45.44 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports (+4.6%) and imports (+4.9%) of goods and services advanced in March. In real terms, exports of goods grew 4.8%, while that of imports moved up 3.7%. Effectively, the real trade deficit of goods widened only slightly (%50.1 billion vs. $49.3 billion in February. For the first quarter, the real trade deficit of goods stands at $49.9 billion compared with $45.5 billion in the fourth quarter. The first quarter trade deficit is slightly smaller than the assumption included in the advance estimate of first quarter GDP, implying a small upward revision. The net impact on GDP will be determined by retail sales and inventories numbers to be published on May 12.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

U.S. Small Business Survey Highlights Continued Pessimism about Business Conditions / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Small Business Optimism Index declined to 91.2 in April from 91.9 in the prior month.  More importantly, fewer firms had plans to increase capital expenditures in the next 3 to 6 months (21% vs. 24% in March) and the percentage of respondents indicating plans to increase payrolls held steady in April (2.0%). 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, May 08, 2011

U.S. Economy Endgame, Muddle Through or Debt Crisis? / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week I finish the two-part letter on the Endgame and give you my thoughts on the economy and how it all plays out over the next five years. This is the second part of a speech I gave last week at the Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. It is a rather bold forecast, and fraught with peril and likely errors, but that is my job here. Damn the torpedoes, etc. I must offer one large caveat! If the facts change so will my forecast, but this is the view into my very cloudy crystal ball as I see it today. As always, remember that those of us in the forecasting world are often wrong but seldom in doubt. Read accordingly.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, May 06, 2011

U.S. Economy Crippled / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSomething happened in April that crippled the US economy. First it was the reports from four regional Fed manufacturing surveys showing a sharp slowdown in growth. Then weekly jobless claims began printing four handles each week with today's 474,000 on top of last week's 429,000. The real kicker was Wednesday's ISM Services that registered a very sharp drop off and now sits precariously close to contraction.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, May 06, 2011

U.S. Economic Data to Ponder About Before the April Employment Report / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe April employment report is scheduled for publication Friday, May 6.  An increase of 190,000 payroll jobs and a steady reading for the unemployment rate (8.8%) is our forecast.  The consensus forecast is an increase of 200,000 jobs and an unchanged jobless rate.  Nonfarm payrolls increased 216,000 in March, with the private sector accounting for a gain of 230,000 jobs.  Private sector hiring has risen at an impressive clip in the February-March period (average of 235,000 jobs).  Against this backdrop, the jobless claims numbers for the week ended April 30 were unexpected.  Initial jobless claims rose 43,000 to 474,000 and the prior week's estimate was raised to 431,000 from 429,000. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, May 05, 2011

ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Shows Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe ISM non-manufacturing survey results point to slowing conditions in the service sector of the economy in April.  The composite index declined to 52.8 in April from 57.3 in March.  This is the second monthly decline and the lowest since July 2010 (see Chart 1).  The composite index is made up of four equally weighted components.  Of the four components, supplier deliveries advanced in April (53.0 vs. 51.5), while indexes tracking new orders (52.7 vs. 64.1 in March), business activity (53.7 vs. 59.7 in March) and employment (51.9 vs. 53.7) declined. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Bin Laden's Death and U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMohamed El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of Pimco, appeared on Bloomberg Television today with Willow Bay from the Milken Conference in Los Angeles, where he discussed the effect of Bin Laden's death on the markets as well as the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

U.S. Economy Faces Domestic Economic Headwinds / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you watched the move Inside Job then you realized as it ended that we were in fact living the sequel. The movie is far from over. The problems are far from being addressed. The solutions may be close but the leadership needed is no where near.

Week after week I may sound like a broken record. Like someone who has missed the bull run and trying to defend lost opportunity. At some point this market will turn. Those who said they will get out at or near the top will again be proven wrong. Their paper profits will turn into paper losses and they will argue they "cannot afford to sell." What has frustrated the bears will one day frustrate the bulls.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Has the Fed Decided to Fight Inflation Instead of Unemployment? / Economics / US Economy

By: Washingtons_Blog

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWilliam Alden writes in a Huffington Post liveblog entitled "Inflation Vs. Jobs":

Bernanke's argument about inflation isn't consistent, economist Paul Krugman says.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, April 29, 2011

Goolsbee on the Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth, Bernanke Concern Over S&P Rating / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAustan Goolsbee, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, spoke to Bloomberg TV's Hans Nichols about today's report showing the U.S. economy slowed more than forecast in Q1. Goolsbee said about the S&P's judgment about the U.S.'s triple A rating was "a data point" and he also said that 2011 and 2011 are "still looking fairly positive" for economic growth. Goolsbee appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Bottom Line."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Growth and Inflation Equals Growthflation / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Hampson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's an awkward term, but its what we've got: growth AND inflation. And the US Fed yesterday made it clear they will continue to support both.

Growthflation makes for big nominal gains in stocks and commodities, even if less in real terms, and that means little incentive on the short side. Eventually we will see excessive inflation and overtightening kill growth, but right now we see strong leading indicators together with a continued policy of stimulus from the Fed (QE2 into the end of June, reinvestment of maturing securities for a few months after that, and most likely rates on hold until 2012), a recipe for more growth and more inflation. Essentially the Fed is keen to bring back those 7 million lost jobs (employment being the notorious laggard) and continues to talk down inflation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Net Trade Deficits - A Leading Indicator of U.S. Economic Woes! / Economics / US Economy

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany people think the root cause of the current U.S. economic problems is the sub-mortgage debacle.  I certainly think that is a major contributor both to those problems, and to the timing of them.  However, I believe (and have believed since 2005 when I first started to seriously study the U.S. and its evolving place in the world economic order) that what is happening now would have happened eventually absent the sub-prime crisis - albeit many years from now. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, April 22, 2011

Whiff of Decelerating Trend in Second Tier U.S. Economic Reports / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March employment report, including a 8.8% unemployment rate and a gain of 230,000 private sector jobs, set a bullish tone early in the month, but today's reports are sending a different message.  Initial jobless claims fell 13,000 to 403,000 during the week ended April 16.  The four-week moving average at 399,000 has moved up 391,000 posted four weeks ago. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, April 16, 2011

U.S. Factory Production Strong in March and the First Quarter / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIndustrial production rose 0.8% during March, following more muted gains of 0.1% in each of the prior two months.  Factory production, which excludes output of the nation's utilities and mining sector, advanced 0.7% in March, following impressive gains of 0.8% and 0.6% in January and February, respectively.  As a result of these strong monthly increases, factory production in the first quarter of 2011 moved up at an annual rate of 9.2%, the largest increase since 1997 (see Chart 4). 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

U.S. March Small Business Survey is Disappointing, Trade Gap Temporary Narrowing / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Small Business Optimism Index dropped 2.6 points to 91.9 from 94.5 in March.  The details of the survey are disappointing following an encouraging March employment report of the nation.  The composite index registered the second monthly decline in six months. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, April 02, 2011

How The Foreign Laundromat Trashed the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI was looking at Vietnam recently. Apparently the streets are paved with gold and so I’m going over next week to check that out, but I’m getting more confused by the minute.

On one hand (supposedly) FDI is pouring into Vietnam, on the other hand, you read in the Financial Times that the Vietnamese are sending their gold jewellery to Switzerland to be melted down and turned into ingots to be stored in a vault (outside Vietnam). Or converted into a “hard” currency…although there again, there is a bit of a debate going on these days about where you might find one of those?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, March 26, 2011

U.S. Fourth Quarter Real GDP Economic Growth Upward Revision / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal GDP of the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2010, revised up from the prior estimate of a 2.8% increase. The U.S economy grew 2.9% in 2010 after a 2.6% decline in 2009. The outlook for 2011 is for a slightly stronger performance, with most of the growth representing self-sustained economic growth compared with artificial support that has maintained economic momentum in 2010 to a large extent.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, March 24, 2011

US Growth Expectations Neglect Weak Consumer Sector / Economics / US Economy

By: ECR_Research

Consensus on US growth this year is around 3.5%, and many economists and analysts expect the same growth rate, or a bit higher, the years thereafter. But where will this expected growth come from?

This is however the bright side of the medallion. There is, unfortunately, another side, which makes it really questionable how the US could possible attain a growth rate of 3.5% or higher for the coming years. There are several points to make.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Rumours of America's Economic Death Are Exaggerated: Credit Crunch Was a Blip / Economics / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA good sign of impending economic death is when people stop lending money to you.

What’s strange is that in some quarters conventional wisdom has it that America is on death’s door with hyper-inflation just around the corner as a punishment for all the BAD money printing.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, March 21, 2011

American Jobs, Factories and Investment: The Picture is Grim / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Washington Post recently published a story revealing that if the hidden jobless were included in the unemployment rate it would jump to 10.5 per cent. (Hidden workforce challenges domestic economic recovery) This is a damning indictment of Obama's economic policies and Bernanke's monetary mismanagement. Even more damning is the fact that Obama appears completely unfazed by the situation. Now he did not create this recession any more than Bush created the 2000 recession -- irrespective of what America's utterly corrupt media assert -- but his policies are responsible for making it worse. To say that America is in an even more frightful mess than would otherwise be the case because of this man's dogmatic leftism and mindless hostility to free markets would be a severe understatement. However, recriminations -- no matter how well deserved -- will not alleviate the situation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

FOMC Meeting 15th March: Fed More Bullish, Japan U.S. Trade Facts / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 0%-0.25%, as expected and indicated it would continue its quantitative easing program of $600 billion.  There were no dissents at the meeting, despite disagreements among members about the quantitative easing program that is underway, as revealed in the minutes of the January meeting and subsequent speeches of Fed Presidents. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, March 13, 2011

U.S. Economy on Steroids, Poverty Levels Equal to the 1930s / Economics / US Economy

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWall Street at least temporarily relieved of the burden of having to buy Treasuries & Agency bonds, is looking at the jump in oil prices as nothing more than an irritant to their plans for a higher market. Bill Dudley of the NY Fed, a most powerful member, continues to make a vigorous defense of Federal Reserve policies. He, and a few other Fed participants, and Chairman Bernanke believe liquidity is the key for solving problems. That is not only in the realm of debt purchases, but in the relief it brings to Wall Street and banking. It relieves them of the responsibility of having to make those purchases to assist the Fed.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, March 11, 2011

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in January / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The trade deficit of the U.S. economy widened to $46.3 billion in January from $40.3 billion in the prior month.  Exports of goods and services advanced 2.7% in January, while imports of goods and services also grew 5.2%.  Imports of both petroleum (+3.7%) and non-petroleum products (+4.2%) items rose in January.  If this trend continues in February and March, the trade deficit would cutback real GDP growth noticeably. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, March 11, 2011

U.S. Households Net Worth Advances, Outstanding Debt Declines / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHousehold net worth rose to $56.82 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2010, a 3.9% increase from the third quarter (or $2.1 trillion increase).  Net worth of household has risen 16.6% from the first quarter of 2009 (the recent low, see Chart 1).  Households lost 26% of their net worth between the second quarter of 2007 and first quarter of 2009, the largest loss in the post-war period.  In the fourth quarter, households experienced gains in equity holdings that more than offset the loss from real estate.  

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

The Crude Oil Economic Booby Trap / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRising oil prices threaten to derail the recovery. Oil at $106 per barrel (Monday's price) is not a problem, but oil at $160 is. With fighting increasing in Libya and social unrest spreading across the Middle East, no one knows where prices will settle. That leaves Fed chairman Ben Bernanke with a tough decision. Should he call off QE2 prematurely and let the stock market drift sideways or go-til-June and hope for the best? If the Fed tightens too early, deflationary pressures will reemerge further straining bank balance sheets and consumer spending. Housing prices will fall sharply and foreclosures will mushroom. But if Bernanke holds-firm with his zero rates and bond buying program--especially when the ECB is raising rates--he could trigger a bond market rout and send the dollar into freefall.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Friday, March 04, 2011

Currency Revaluation Won’t Fix America’s Trade Mess / Politics / US Economy

By: Ian_Fletcher

It is sometimes suggested that our trade problems (job losses, international indebtedness) will go away on their own once currency values adjust. Bottom line? A declining dollar will eventually solve everything.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

Bernanke "Fed Prepared to Respond as Necessary" to Support Economic Recovery and Price Stability / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA likely threat of inflation following the Fed's extraordinary monetary accommodation and rising commodity prices is the most discussed topic in recent days. Chairman Bernanke addressed concerns about inflation in lucid terms in his semi-annual testimony this morning. First, he noted that the "rate of pass-through from commodity price increases to broad indexes of U.S. consumer prices has been quite low in recent decades, partly reflecting the relatively small weight of materials inputs in total production as well as the stability of longer-term inflation expectations."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

U.S. Manufacturing “Red Hot”? Dream On / Economics / US Economy

By: Ian_Fletcher

There is an article in the Huffington Post today which, before apparently being retitled, asserted in its headline that U.S. manufacturing is now "red hot," and whose text quotes a financial analyst (apparently approvingly) who asserts that it is.

This is based on a report from the respected Institute for Supply-Chain Management which reports that manufacturing output in the U.S. has expanded for 19 months straight.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

U.S. Government Proposed Spending Cuts and Current Energy Price Increases / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Effect on Total Economy-Wide Spending from a Cut in Government Spending

Suppose that the federal government cuts its current spending on goods and services. Assuming nothing is done to tax rates, this means that the government's current borrowing will fall commensurately. (This represents a shift in the demand curve for credit, not a movement along it.) All else the same, the interest rates, with the exception of the one-day federal funds rate, which is targeted by the Federal Reserve, will decline as the demand for credit declines.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

U.S. Consumer Spending Disappoints, But Partly Weather-Related / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal consumer spending fell 0.1% in January after a 0.3% increase in the prior month.  Purchases of durable goods increased 0.3% but this strength was offset by declines in purchases of non-durables (-0.2% vs. +0.1% in December) and services (-0.1% vs. +0.2% in December). 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 26, 2011

U.S. Real Growth GDP for Q4 2010 Revised Lower to 2.8% from 3.2% / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDownward revisions of consumer spending (4.1% vs. 4.4% advance estimate) and state & local government outlays (-2.4% vs. -0.9% advance estimate) were the two major sources of revisions accounting for the reduction in the pace of growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 2.8% from 3.2% in the advance estimate.  In addition, spending on equipment and software and residential investment expenditures were reported to have advanced at a slower clip in the fourth quarter (see table below). 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, February 25, 2011

The Economic Recovery that Never Was / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is my belief that as the headlines continue to roll in about fiscal woes from sea to shining sea that we are going to get a full appreciation for the fraud that has been perpetrated on the American people in the form of the ‘economic recovery’ that the media has been stumping for since the middle of 2009. This ‘wag the dog’ type undertaking has been about confidence, perceptions, and little else. Absolutely, there are pockets of the nation where people have found work. After all, when your government dumps nearly a trillion dollars into the economy it is going to have SOME effect. Our goal from the beginning of these hyperstimulation maneuvers was to point out the unsustainability of this course of action and more importantly to predict the consequences thereof.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

U.S. Consumer Confidence Moves Up, Largely From the Expectations Component / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose 5.6 points to 70.4 in February, the highest reading in three years (see Chart 3).  The Current Situation Index (33.4 vs.31.1 in January) and the Expectations Index (95.1 vs. 87.3 in January) both posted gains, with the latter climbing to the highest level since December 2006 (see Chart 4).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, February 21, 2011

Address Structural Economic Problems of Unemployment, Debt, and Inflation With Chicanery / Economics / US Economy

By: D_Sherman_Okst

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStructural Economic Problem #1: Unemployment 

Seventy percent of our economy is driven from private sector employment: 

  • Without consumers the economy is finished
  • Without jobs and with maxed out debt loads the consumer is finished 
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Fed Upgrades U.S. GDP Growth Forecast, Remains Significantly Concerned About Unemployment / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe minutes of the January FOMC meeting show the Fed more optimistic about economic growth in 2011. The Fed raised the central tendency for real GDP growth in 2011 to 3.4% - 3.9% from the November forecast of 3.0% to 3.6% (see Table 1). The revisions to projections of economic growth in 2012 and 2013 were small compared with the revision of estimates for 2011.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Widening of U.S. Trade Deficit Partly Reflects Jump in Oil Imports / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The trade deficit of the U.S. economy widened to $40.6 billion in December from $38.3 billion in the prior month.  Exports (+1.8%) and imports (+2.6%) of goods and services advanced in December.  Petroleum imports (+12.2% in real terms) made up a large part of imports in December. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Bullish Small Business Optimism Index and Opposing Views from the Fed / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe NFIB survey results of small businesses for January 2011 point to an improved outlook.  The composite index moved up to 94.1 in January from 92.6 in the prior month.  The level of the composite index is close to the pre-recession reading of 94.4 in November 2007 (see Chart 1). 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 05, 2011

The Burden of Lower Economic Growth and Frequent Recessions / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"My best guess is that we'll have a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific. Even though technically we'll be in recovery and the economy will be growing, unemployment will still be high for a while and that means that a lot of people will be under financial stress." -- Benjamin Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve in a Q&A at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 05, 2011

U.S. January Employment Report Suggests Continutation of Fed Easy Monetary Policy Stance / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe January employment report includes special factors, so the format of today's commentary is different from the procedure we follow for each month's employment report.  The comment starts with a discussion of the special factors, followed by a conclusion, and ends with an analysis of customary details. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, February 02, 2011

The Economic “Recovery” in Consumer Loans Isn’t Real / Economics / US Economy

By: Casey_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBud Conrad, The Casey Report writes: The amount of loans being provided by our banking system is a good reflector of the strength of our economy. Below is a big-picture view that shows the total loans in the U.S. as the Fed reports in its H.8 each week. We can see that loans outstanding declined at a rapid rate at the beginning of the current great recession, but there seems to be a recovery in the little jump at the end of the chart, as highlighted by the two small black arrows. A little closer look shows that the Consumer Loans segment is the source of the optimism that we see in the total.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, January 30, 2011

U.S. Real Statistical Economic Recovery, Bubble Complacency / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Recent GDP Numbers – A Real Statistical Recovery
Consumer Spending Rose? Where Was the Income?
A Bubble in Complacency
Egypt

This week I had the privilege of being on the same panel with former Comptroller General David Walker and former Majority Leader (and presidential candidate) Richard Gephardt. A Democrat to the left of me and a self-declared nonpartisan to the right, stuck in the middle and not knowing where the unrehearsed conversation would take us. As it turned out, to a very interesting conclusion, which is the topic of this week's letter. By way of introduction to those not familiar with them, David M. Walker (born 1951) served as United States Comptroller General from 1998 to 2008, and is now the Founder and CEO of the Comeback America Initiative. Gephardt served in Congress for 28 years, was House Majority Leader from 1989 to 1995 and Minority Leader from 1995 to 2003, running for president in 1988 and 2004.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 28, 2011

Why Consumer Spending Remains a Problem / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Consumer spending on Black Friday and Cyber Monday was excellent, but the spending momentum failed to extend into the holiday shopping season. The retail sales excluding auto in December slipped to 0.5%, down from one percent in November and below the estimate of 0.6%. Spending remains problematic and will hamper growth.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 28, 2011

U.S. Durable Goods and Housing Home Sales Data / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDurable goods orders fell 2.5% in December, reflecting largely the impact of a significant drop in orders of civilian aircraft ($24 million vs. $5.019 billion in November).  Excluding transportation, orders of durable goods moved up 0.5% in December vs. 4.5% gain in the prior month.  Also orders of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.4% in December. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Soars in January / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 60.6 in January from 53.3 in December.  The January reading is the highest since May 2010.  The Present Situation Index (31 vs. 24.9 in December) and Expectations Index (80.3 vs. 72.3 in December) advanced in January. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, January 23, 2011

U.S. Economic Turmoil in 2011 / Economics / US Economy

By: Stephen_Lendman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWall Street predicts blue skies. Economic recovery will continue. Stocks will deliver double-digit gains. On January 14, the Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecast Survey headlined, "Economists Optimistic on Growth," expecting in 2011:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Tossing the U.S. Consumer Under the Bus And Insanely Expecting an Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: D_Sherman_Okst

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI’ve been pouring through the Fed Reserve’s recent release of circa 2005 FOMC meeting transcripts. The most striking observation that one can make is that the consumer - the very lifeblood that determines whether our economy will live or die - has been discarded.

Discarded --- as in tossed under the bus.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

U.S. Economic Growth Recession Continues, QE2's Problems / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLong-time readers of Outside the Box are familiar with the names Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington. They are a regular feature here, as quite frankly, anything that Lacy writes or says I pay serious attention to. This is their regular quarterly report, where they outline seven things that are likely to retard US growth. An easy read, but take the time to think this through.

Hoisington Investment Management Company (www.hoisingtonmgt.com) is a registered investment advisor specializing in fixed-income portfolios for large institutional clients. Located in Austin, Texas, the firm has over $4 billion under management, composed of corporate and public funds, foundations, endowments, Taft-Hartley funds, and insurance companies.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 14, 2011

We Could be in Great Depression II – But We’re Not! / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGlobal financial authorities proved to be quite adept at reacting quickly, step-by-panicked step, to the financial crisis as it unfolded, making hasty dramatic moves dreamed up on the fly in panicked weekend meetings.

That the efforts worked is obvious. We are not in Great Depression II.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Long Shadows Cast Over US Economy 2011 / Economics / US Economy

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNumerous are the threats to the USEconomy and US financial structures. Many are hidden threats, subtle challenges to undermine increasingly fragile support systems, planks, and cables that hold the system together. The year 2011 will be when the system breaks in open visible fashion, when the explanations that justify it sound silly and baseless, when the entire bond world endures major crashes. All thing financial are inter-related. Recall that in summer 2007, the professor occupying the US Federal Reserve claimed the subprime mortgage crisis was isolated.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, January 09, 2011

U.S. and Global Economic Forecast 2011, Russia and the Roots of World Inflation / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is time once again to throw caution and wisdom to the wind and actually make my 11th annual forecast. I have to admit this is the most stressful letter I write each year. I do at least 5-10 times more research and thinking about this issue than any other. On a positive note, this may be one of the more optimistic forecast letters I have done in a long time. But there are some asterisks, as always. We will survey the world, trying to peer through the fog of the future. There are some very interesting side trails we will want to explore. Did you know some events in Russia could have real ramifications for inflation in China, the US, and the world? I pay attention to the background details and bring them to you. So settle back as we tour the world.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 07, 2011

U.S. Real GDP vs. Potential GDP – Time to Assess this Yardstick / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S economy has registered six quarters of economic growth, inclusive of the projected increase in real GDP during the fourth quarter of 2010 (see Chart 1). 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

FOMC Meeting Minutes Indicate Fed Sees "Slow Progress" Towards Full Employment / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Fed is focused on meeting its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.  In this regard, the minutes indicate that the FOMC sees "only a gradual pickup in growth with slow progress toward maximum employment."  A few participants held that an upside risk could emerge from a sharp growth in bank lending, given the easy monetary policy stance in place.  At the same time, there was a great deal of concern about the housing market, particularly the large supply of unsold homes. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, December 27, 2010

The Ghost of Economic Future / Economics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat does the ghost of Christmas Future have to show us? What grave? What empty chair? What jokers at the funeral?

The end of the year approacheth. What do we know? What have we learned? Where have we come to?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

US Wealth Distribution, Where Zombies Go to Feast / Politics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA warning… Bad stuff coming!

We’ve come to the warm latitudes for our Christmas holiday. Your editor didn’t really want to do so. He travels so much for business, he longed to stay home for Christmas. He imagined himself sitting in front of the fire…happily drinking eggnog and eating fruitcake. Or, cutting down trees and mending fences.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, December 13, 2010

The U.S. Economy is Recovering and Employment is Growing - WHO’S LYING? / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHave you noticed the latest sound bites coming from the punditry in the corporate mainstream media? Here is the latest wisdom flowing from the lying mouthpieces of the ruling oligarchy (Wall Street, Washington DC, Mega-corporations):

The economy is recovering and employment is growing.
Consumers are deleveraging, saving and using cash for purchases.
Retailers are doing fantastic as consumers increase spending.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, December 13, 2010

Inflation, Deflation and the U.S. Economy Year Ahead / Economics / US Economy

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe inflation versus deflation debate has raged for years but since the credit crisis the debate has become highly politicized. If the credit crisis taught us anything it is that the risk of deflation far outweighs that of inflation. Yet there is an entrenched view emerging in political circles that is actively opposed to the government’s attempts at re-inflating the economy following the deflationary collapse of 2008.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Bernanke On the U.S. Economy, Fact, Fiction and Finally the Fix / Economics / US Economy

By: D_Sherman_Okst

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFiction: In this 60 Minutes clip Bernanke tells Scott Pelley, “The other concern I should mention is that inflation is very, very low…”

Fact: There is massive inflation!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, December 02, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Survey – Slight Moderation in U.S. Factory Activity / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The ISM manufacturing survey results for November show a moderation in the pace of activity. The level of the composite index during November (56.6) suggests that the manufacturing is growing but at a slightly slower pace compared with October (56.9). Indexes tracking new orders (56.6 vs. 58.9 in October) and production (55.0 vs. 62.7 in October) declined but are holding above 50.0. Indexes measuring employment and exports dropped, while the import orders index moved up during November. The national index points to a mild slowing in factory conditions, while the November regional surveys of Philadelphia, Chicago, and New York sent a more bullish message.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

U.S. Household Debt Deleveraging - Largest Decline on Record / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe soft trajectory of consumer spending and continued reduction in residential investment expenditures reflects the sharp reduction in household debt. Outstanding home mortgages have dropped from $10.606 trillion in the first quarter of 2008 to $10.126 trillion in the second quarter of 2010 (see Chart 1). Household credit card debt has fallen roughly $157 billion from the peak in the third quarter of 2008 to $2.41 trillion (see Chart 1).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Bernanke Rolling the Dice: America's Financial Dilemma / Economics / US Economy

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is no question that the world is at a boil. Germany is drawing anger; N. Korea has attacked S. Korea; flaying about the FED’s Mr. Bernanke blames China for America’s sad economic and financial dilemma; five suits, class action and RICO, have been filed against JPMorgan Chase and HSBC for having manipulated silver prices and class actions are rumored to be in process for naked shorting, which has been rampant in the market for years, a felony hedge fund investigation of insider trading, which the SEC has absolutely refused to pursue.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, November 25, 2010

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Discouraging Report / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Orders of durable goods fell 3.3% in October vs. a 5.0% increase in September.  Orders of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft dropped 4.5% in October following a 1.9% gain in September. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

New Estimate Indicates Real U.S. GDP Grew Faster in Q3 2010 / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal GDP of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter, which is higher than the advance estimate of a 2.0% increase.  Upward revisions of consumer spending, equipment and software spending, exports, government spending, and smaller decline in residential investment expenditures more than offset the decline in structural investment expenditures, previously reported to have added to GDP, to result in a higher rate of growth. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, November 22, 2010

U.S. Unemployment to Remain High Through 2011 and Beyond / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: Stocks are up nearly 70% from their bear market lows. Corporate profits are rising. And the economy is expanding. Yet the unemployment rate continues to hover around 10%.

Neither President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus program, nor the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing has generated enough good news to convince companies to hire meaningful numbers of new workers.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 19, 2010

Will Christmas Shopping Revive the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Danny_Schechter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFunny how, back in 1929, we had a black Thursday and then a Black Friday as the market crashed, plunging the country into a depression. Now we have every retailer in every mall in America on their knees praying for a prosperous black Friday the day after Thanksgiving,

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, November 18, 2010

U.S. Jobless Claims 4-Week Moving Average Inching Below 450K / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 to 439,000 during the week ended November 13.  Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell 48,000 to 4.295 million, the fourth consecutive weekly decline.  A large part of the decline is attributed to expiration of eligibility for unemployment insurance.  Unemployment claims under special programs increased 121,238.  It remains a challenge to sort out the special programs data as a number of people could be no longer eligible under the guidelines of the programs. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Marc Faber on U.S. Trade Deficit Doom as a Cause of the Financial Crisis / Economics / US Economy

By: Videos

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarc Faber Discussing the U.S. trade deficit as the real cause of the financial crisis that boosted emerging markets and commodities which should be thanking Ben Bernanke. U.S. could benefit form exporting agricultural commodities.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

U.S. Commercial and Industrial Demand for Loans Remains Weak / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey results of October indicate that demand for commercial and industrial loans from large and medium sized firms was weaker compared with the third quarter survey (see chart 1).  A larger percentage of bankers indicated weaker demand from small firms.  This information is discouraging because stronger economic growth in the months ahead is tied to a likely pickup in loan demand. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

The U.S. Mid-Term Elections are Over… Yet it Ain’t Over / Politics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Toronto

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOur financial system and our economy nearly collapsed over two years ago. With proper management we should have recovered, but we haven’t. Unemployment, the one thing that voters see and feel, front and center, remains the highest it’s been for decades and voters are justifiably angry.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

U.S. Economy Could Swallow Five Bitter Pills or One Sweet but Deadly / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt seems the current Chairman of the Federal Reserve is of the belief that diluting the dollar is the cure for everything from a recession to male pattern baldness. And like other snake-oil salesmen before him, Mr. Bernanke is heavy on promises and light on results. Here are five prescriptions that money printing can't fulfill:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, October 31, 2010

U.S. GDP Report Heralds Still Higher US Unemployment / Economics / US Economy

By: Barry_Grey

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Commerce Department on Friday estimated that the US economy grew at an anemic annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter, a pace that all but ensures a further rise in unemployment.

The government claims that the recession ended in June of 2009, but the quarterly increases in the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year have been far below those recorded following previous major recessions. US GDP rose 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and then slowed to 1.7 percent in the second.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Bernanke gets his "pink slip" / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleQuestion: What is the difference between a full-blown Depression and an excruciatingly "slow recovery"?

Answer--Inventories and a bit of fiscal stimulus.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Huge Rise in U.S. Unemployment Expected After Mid-Term Elections / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEarlier this month Gallup released a survey that showed unemployment rose .8% to 10.1%

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, October 18, 2010

U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Drops; Where to From Here? / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn yet another sign of a weakening economy, Production in U.S. Unexpectedly Dropped in September

Output at factories, mines and utilities fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since the recession ended in June 2009, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today. Factory production also decreased 0.2 percent, reflecting declines in consumer durable goods, like appliances and furniture.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Currency Wars, The Cycle of Deflation and Misguided U.S. Economic Policy / Economics / US Economy

By: Gordon_T_Long

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, October 15, 2010

Widening U.S. Trade Deficit Will Trim Q3 Real GDP Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe trade deficit widened to $46.3 billion in August, reflecting a small increase in exports and a large jump of imports. The July-August data suggest that the trade deficit will trim the headline real GDP reading in the third quarter.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Monday, October 11, 2010

A Spooked U.S. Economy in October / Politics / US Economy

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Last week we received worse than expected unemployment numbers, challenging recent claims that the recession has come and gone. Also, as the economy continues to suffer the after effects of the Federal Reserve-created bubbles of the last decade, there is renewed interest in gold. Fears that the Federal Reserve will pump even more money into the system had caused the price of gold to reach new highs.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, October 08, 2010

Fantastic Economic News, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Decline by 95,000 / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday we have fantastic news from the BLS that the economy shed 95,000 jobs, far weaker than the economists' consensus expectation of a mere 5,000 drop.

Moreover, part-time workers for economic reasons increased by a whopping 612,000 workers, much higher than an recent numbers and also higher than a year ago. The effect of rising part-time work is the effective unemployment rate shot up .4% to 17.1%

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, October 02, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Survey Points to Slowing U.S. Economy in Q3 / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe composite ISM manufacturing index edged down to 54.4 in September from 56.3 in the prior month. Indexes tracking production (56.5 vs. 59.9 in August), new orders (51.1 vs. 53.1 in August), employment (56.5 vs. 60.4 in August), and vendor deliveries (53.3 vs. 56.6 in August) declined, while the inventories index rose to 55.6 from 51.4 in August. Readings above 50.0 denote an expansion in activity. Although the levels of each of the sub-components of the composite index continue to hold above 50, the declines registered in September, excluding the gain in the inventories index, imply that factory activity advanced at a slower pace in September compared with August.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, October 02, 2010

They Say the U.S. Recession Ended Over a Year Ago / Economics / US Economy

By: Hans_Wagner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) told us the recession ended June 2009, when economic activity stopped going down and turned up.

The problem is most people are still worried about their jobs, if they have one and the lackluster performance of the recovery so far. With unemployment fluctuating between 9.4 and 10.1%, and the underemployment rate near 17%, it is no wonder the news from the NBER received such skepticism. Even the Federal Reserve said consumer demand, bank lending and housing remain weak, especially for this stage of the recovery.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

U.S. Unemployment Rate Could be Higher in September vs. August / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 48.5 in September from 53.2 in August.  The September reading is the lowest since February 2010 (46.4).  The historical low is 25.3, registered in February 2009.  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index also declined in September (66.6 vs. 68.9 in August).  The decline in consumer outlook appears to be tied to the prevailing conditions in the job market.  Although the recent recession officially ended in June 2009 and real GDP has posted growth for four straight quarters, the 9.6% unemployment rate in August is an elevated level playing an important role in the pessimistic outlook of consumers. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Q.E. Economic Engine Revs But Car Goes Nowhere / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe economy is stuck in neutral so stepping on the QE gas pedal is highly unlikely to accomplish much except increase the noise level. Yet, the philosophy at the Fed seems to be, if gas doesn't work, give the engine more gas.

So the engine continues to rev louder and louder, and treasury yields drop, but that does not and will not put Americans back to work.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, September 27, 2010

Generating Economic Optimism, Put On a Happy Face? / Economics / US Economy

By: Douglas_French

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSince two years of zero interest rates, $800 billion in fiscal stimulus, and the bailout of any business remotely viewed as systemically important haven't resuscitated the dead economy, now the tonic suggested is optimism. American business owners and consumers need to quit getting their daubers down and keep the sunny side up.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Obama Walking in Reagan's Shoes / Politics / US Economy

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed's Beige Book, which was released on Wednesday, provides a sobering look at an economy that is sputtering-along on empty. Nearly all the districts reported slower activity amid "widespread signs of deceleration". The stimulus-fueled rebound, which powered GDP above 5% two quarters earlier, has progressively dissipated slashing growth to an anemic 1.6%. As underemployment has soared to 16.5% and deflation has continued to tighten its grip, all talk of a "recovery" has ceased and policymakers have grown more tentative, unwilling to do anything that might cost them votes in the upcoming midterm elections.   

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, September 11, 2010

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise More than Expected; But Where's the Demand? / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRising inventories to meet rising demand is one thing, rising inventories in the face of weak or falling consumer demand is another. On the inventory side of the equation, Wholesale Inventories in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, September 10, 2010

Meet the New Goldilocks Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBack in the glory days of 2008, the mainstream press, political pundits, and various government officials talked about the idea of the Goldilocks economy. Not too hot, not too cold, but just right. Of course the analogy ended when the bears chased Goldilocks out of the cottage. While the same outlets aren’t trotting out the fairy tale this time around, it is clear that the US has hit phase two of the Goldilocks economy and it is my guess that most folks will like this one even less than the first.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, September 04, 2010

U.S. Government Policy Caused America's Unemployment Crisis / Economics / US Economy

By: Washingtons_Blog

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe unemployment rate has risen again for the the first time in 4 months. I predicted a growing, long-term unemployment problem last year.

Indeed, even after the government plays with the numbers to make them look better (using inaccurate birth-death models and other tricks-of-the-trade), this is how the current jobs downturn compares with other post-WWII recessions:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, September 03, 2010

Weighing In On the Week’s Economic Reports! / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

The stock market this week is saying I was wrong in warning in last week’s column that we might already be back in recession in this, the third quarter of the year.

I have to agree that the alarming trend of worsening economic reports since May seemed to turn a bit more mixed with this week’s reports.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, September 03, 2010

U.S. Unemployment Rises to 9.6%, A Look Beneath the Surface / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis morning the BLS reported a decrease of 64,000 jobs. However, that reflects a decrease of 114,000 temporary census workers.

Excluding the census effect, government lost 7,000 jobs. Were the trend to continue, this would be a good thing because Firing Public Union Workers Creates Real Jobs.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

U.S. Unable to Remain World Stronghold on Consumer Demand / Economics / US Economy

By: Pravda

American consumers are not in a hurry to spend, production remains weak, and conversations about the risk of deflation become more acute. It is likely that the U.S. government will prepare new incentive programs that will inflate national debt. However, the experts believe it will not affect the dollar in a negative way.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

The Importance of Business Start-ups and When Did Thrift Become Bad? / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis weekend I wrote about the problems of being an entrepreneur in our Muddle Through Economy. I would like to follow that up with two brief (but somewhat controversial) essays on two aspects of starting up small businesses. The first, by Vivek Wadhwa, points out that start-ups account for all of the net new jobs, and is a summary of a paper from the Kaufman Foundation. (You can read the 12 page paper at www.kauffman.org/..)

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, August 23, 2010

Mainstream Economists Fail to Make Arrive at Logical Conclusions on U.S. Debt and Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a CNBC debate last week, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich presented a set of contradictory beliefs that unfortunately reflect the conventional wisdom of modern economists. In a discussion with Wall Street Journal columnist Stephen Moore, Reich correctly and comprehensively listed the reasons why American consumers could spend so lavishly before the crash of 2008 and why they can no longer keep up the pace. But instead of making the logical conclusion that former levels of spending were unsustainable and that spending should now reflect current conditions, he advocated that government take on additional debt so that tapped out consumers can spend like they used to.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, August 19, 2010

U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims Hit 500,000 Bearing Every Economist's Forecast / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOnce again the pile of overoptimistic economist estimates continues to mount. Today, weekly unemployment claims hit 500,000 exceeding every forecast. This is (at minimum) the 4th time since March every economist was overly optimistic regarding unemployment claims. Nicely done guys.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, August 19, 2010

How to Protect Your Wealth From U.S. Debt Economic Stagnation Japan Style / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Grim unemployment figures, growing worries about crushing debt loads and the apparent absence of any inflation are causing many investors to ask a tough question: Is the U.S. economy catching the "Japan disease," the dreaded and dreadful malaise that has left the onetime Asian powerhouse in a stagnant state since 1990?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

18 Signs That America Is Rotting Right In Front Of Our Eyes / Economics / US Economy

By: Pravda

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSometimes it isn't necessary to quote facts and figures about government debt, unemployment and the trade deficit in order to convey how badly America is decaying. The truth is that millions of Americans can watch America rotting right in front of their eyes by stepping out on their front porches. Record numbers of homes have been foreclosed on and in some of the most run down cities as many as a third of all houses have been abandoned.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

U.S. Bank Credit Increases a Healthy 8.3%, But One Month Does Not Make a Trend / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn July, for only the second time in the past 21 months, U.S. commercial bank total credit (loans and securities) increased (see Chart 1). And it was a healthy increase at 8.3% annualized. Obviously, we do not know whether this is the beginning of an upward trend in bank credit. But if it is, then we feel a lot more confident about our 2011 real GDP forecast, which has the economy's growth rate picking up. The primary assumption underlying our forecast of faster real GDP growth in 2011 is a resumption in the growth of bank credit.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Recession Batters State Budgets Which Could Slow Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere were a lot of questions last week when I wrote about public pensions. So for this week’s Outside the Box, I offer you some more information about how bad the state deficit situation is, and for your specific state. States are having to cut more than 1% of national GDP in fiscal 2011, as federal stimulus money is slowly drying up. And that is just states. Local municipalities and schools have a similar problem. And then add on the possibility of the Bush tax cuts going away and that is a very serious situation. It is why I am so concerned and vocal about the need for the Bush tax cuts to be extended for at least one year until the economy is growing above stall speed. The headwinds from cities and states are severe, as you can see.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Am I A Bit Too Pessemistic on the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Matthew_Ehrlich

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Follow Up To ‘Us Economic Outlook Update’ - I have often said that the best way to truly learn and understand something is to try to teach it. That way, you have to deal with the questions that come from a wide variety of different views. Presenting an article, similarly evokes questions that make us dig deeper to better define or improve our explanation. Several comments I received to my article “U.S. Economic Outlook Update, Is the Downturn Finally Over, if not, When it will end?” http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21778.html said that I was way too pessimistic and that real estate bubbles usually last only a few years. They also questioned weather housing or employment were key issues to the recession as opposed to financial institutions causing the whole mess. So, here is my deeper explanation of why I think that this time it’s different and the intertwined housing/employment relationship has dictated the outcome.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, August 15, 2010

ECRI Leading Economic Indicator Pointing to Double Dip Recession or Just Fine? / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, Co-founders, Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), continue to pour out statements about the ECRI WLI that are worth taking a close look at, if not outright challenging them.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Foreclosures and Mounting Unemployment, Signs of Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Barry_Grey

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReports released this week on initial applications for jobless benefits, bank seizures of foreclosed homes and retail sales all reflect a dramatic decline in US economic growth and growing social distress.

On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that first-time jobless claims rose by 2,000 last week to 484,000, the third weekly rise in the past month and the highest level in six months. As has been the case with virtually all US economic data in recent weeks, the figures defied the more optimistic forecasts of economists. They had predicted jobless filings would fall by 14,000.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, August 13, 2010

Innovation, What Made America Great is Now Killing Her! / Economics / US Economy

By: Gordon_T_Long

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Creative Destruction is Secular not Cyclical" - What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate.  Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to. This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America.  Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is.  It is called Creative Destruction. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Jobs and Income, the Only Things That Matter… And No One Talks About / Economics / US Economy

By: Graham_Summers

Today, most pundits are growing increasingly concerned that we are headed for a “double dip” recession. I think this view is idiotic as the US “recovery” was in fact nothing more than a small bounce in economy activity within the context of a DEPRESSION.

Regardless, the stooges are out again in full force proclaiming that the US economy is in trouble again (duh), that the Stimulus high is wearing off (duh again) and that the only solution is to issue more Stimulus and money printing to stop another economic contraction (WHAT!?!).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

U.S. Economic Outlook Update, Is the Downturn Finally Over, if not, When it will end? / Economics / US Economy

By: Matthew_Ehrlich

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLiving in Asia for most of the past ten years and having spent another twenty traveling between Wall Street and Asia, I am constantly being asked if the US economic downturn is finally over and if not, when it will end. Not an easy question and if you are going to even attempt to understand my answer, you have to look at some of the MECHANICS of how it started, how it grew, how we got to where we are now and the possible paths to bring about an end.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, August 09, 2010

Fooled by Economic Stimulus, U.S. Economy Structural Problems Still Intact / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBill Watkins, a California Lutheran University professor, provides a nice summary on New Geography of the failure of various stimulus efforts to do anything meaningful in the wake of a collapse by Lehman, a collapse he says is a "regime shift".

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, August 09, 2010

U.S. Economy Between a Rock and a Hard Place Facing Dire Options / Economics / US Economy

By: Lorimer_Wilson

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“The U.S. is in an untenable position - between a rock and a hard place - in an inescapable debt trap - where the options are, at best, dire – either hyperinflation or a deflationary depression! It would seem that all we can do is ride out the storm in a boat laden with gold” said Jeff Nielson (BullionBullsCanada.com) in a recent speech* going on to say:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, August 06, 2010

Disappointing Jobs Report as U.S. Economy Fails to Respond to Massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Today’s disappointing payroll report reveals that the U.S. economy has failed to respond to the massive fiscal and monetary stimuli that have flooded the nation over the past two years. Not only is the news bad for job seekers and political incumbents, but it’s also a strong signal for traders to flee the U.S. dollar. The malaise in the U.S., where stimulus is still the word of the day, stands in contrast to active recoveries in Europe and Asia, where governments are actively removing stimulus. As a result, we are now headed for the eighth consecutive weekly decline in the Dollar Index.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Friday, August 06, 2010

Why America Will Be the Next Banana Republic / Politics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: The great American tradition of individualism, entrepreneurship and revolution is being systematically undermined by a cadre of financial strongmen bent on turning us into just another "banana republic" - where a subdued and apathetic population is subjugated by a ruling class of wealthy oligarchs.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, August 05, 2010

Consumer Spending – Another Drag on the U.S. Economy! / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMost of the time in American history it’s been a good thing that Americans love to spend, a good thing that consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Baby Boomer Dynamics, Housing, Jobs Creation, and the Falling Participation Rate / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJob estimates are often difficult to predict because month-to-month variances can swing wildly. However, census firing is about to take back another chunk of census hiring and I expect another bad looking jobs report this month.

Interestingly, Geithner is making excuses in advance.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

U.S. Corporate Hiring No Longer Improving; Americans Less Optimistic / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCorporate hiring has been in a weak but generally improving condition from January through June according to a Gallup Poll. That positive trend is now broken as noted in U.S. Job Creation Remains Level in July

Gallup's Job Creation Index finds job growth essentially unchanged for the third consecutive month, with a score of +7 in July -- about on par with +8 in June and +7 in May. Job market conditions are better now than they were during the financial crisis at this time a year ago (-2), but remain far below the already-recessionary levels found at this point in 2008 (+20).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, August 02, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Report Points Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe July ISM manufacturing composite index slipped 0.7 points to a level of 55.5. This marks the third consecutive decline in this index (see Chart 1). Although the supplier deliveries and employment indexes increased marginally (by 1.0 and 0.8 points, respectively), the July composite index would have declined by significantly more if it had not been for the 4.4 point increase in the inventories index.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Will U.S. House Prices Drive The 4.8% “Consensus” Nominal GDP Growth Forecast? / Economics / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI looked up the “consensus” for nominal US GDP growth in The Economist today; you have to add “real” to “CPI” to get the answer  - I’m not interested in “real”, for me “real” is what they measure (nominal), and the un-reality starts when they subtract whatever weird and wonderful concoction of inflation is handed down by the Bureau of Labor.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

NAFTA Has Resulted in Increased U.S. Unemployment / Politics / US Economy

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMark Vorpahl writes: On July 7, 2010, President Obama made the following remarks: We're also reforming our own restrictions on exports, consistent with our national security interests. And we hope to move forward on new agreements with some of our key partners. I've instructed U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk to begin discussions to help resolve outstanding issues with the pending Korean Free Trade Agreement before my visit to Korea in November. It's an agreement that will create new jobs and opportunity for people in both of our countries.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Hypocrite Geithner Says Private Sector Must Drive Economy / Politics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLike most politicians, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner likes to talk out of both sides of his mouth, generally saying contradictory things in sound bites that may sound reasonable at first glance, but look idiotic upon closer inspection.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Making Sense of the Economic Puzzle / Economics / US Economy

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYou can tell a lot about the state of the economy by simply looking at the covers of national news magazines. Or perhaps a better way of saying it is that you can get a good sense of how most Americans perceive the state of the economy by perusing the mainstream magazines.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Bernanke is "Unusually Uncertain" - Is that an Improvement? / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

In response to Bernanke Says Economic Outlook is "Unusually Uncertain", Fed Prepared for "Actions as Needed" I received this comment from "Economics Teacher".

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Savings Are a Lousy Excuse for America’s Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEveryone who’s been paying attention knows by now that Americans consume too much and save too little.   This is statistically true, but it has unfortunately become the basis of a mischievous lie about the cause of America’s monstrous trade deficits.  That is, many orthodox economists have been claiming that our trade deficit is really a savings problem in disguise.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Census Bureau Reports Fictional Hogwash About Retail Sales / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Today the Census Bureau posted its Advance Monthly Retail Sales and Food Services Report for June 2010.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

Recession, Deflation and Deficits Economic Outlook 2010 / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI look forward at the beginning of every quarter to receiving the Quarterly Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management. They have been prominent proponents of the view that deflation is the problem, stemming from a variety of factors, and write about their views in a very clear and concise manner. This quarter's letter is no exception, where they once again delve into the history books to bring up fresh and relevant lessons for today. This is a must read piece.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

U.S. Economy Dancing On Quicksand / Economics / US Economy

By: Bob_Clark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDo not attempt to adjust the picture. We control the horizontal and the vertical.
(Old outer limits TV show intro)
 
Bernanke speaking to the heads of the reserve banks.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

Obama Failed Economic Policy, No Recovery Without Job Creation / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere will be no recovery without jobs, and there will be no net job creation if small businesses, especially startups, do not lead the way.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

Retail Sales Signal Economic Recovery Or the Bleeding Edge of the Great Recession's Next Down Cycle? / Economics / US Economy

By: Adam_Lass

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIs Retail the "guiding light" of the recovery – or the bleeding edge of the Great Recession's next down cycle?

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."

I know it's a bit saddle-worn, but old Chas. Dickens was one heck of a student of humanity, and his opening to A Tale of Two Cities, what with its dichotomous wisdom, foolishness, belief and incredulity, just seemed too apropos to pass on today.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Thoughts on U.S. Employment Numbers and Double-Dip Recessions / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's More Than Just Birth/Death
It's a Seasonal Thing
A Breakdown in Communications
Some Thoughts on Double-Dip Recessions

Just how dynamic is the US job market? If I told you we created over 4 million jobs in April, would you believe me? I had a long conversation with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO yesterday. He is openly speculating that employment may no longer be just a lagging indicator but may also be predictive. It is an interesting insight, which we will explore as we take a very deep look at US employment. And I answer a few questions about my thought that there is a 60% chance for a recession in 2011, and why there is a 40% chance we won't. What could change those numbers? We explore that and more, while I suffer from the injustice that LeBron will play with Wade and Bosh. Where's a nonproliferation treaty when you need it?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Potholes in the Economic Recovery, U.S. GDP Forecast / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor various reasons that will be discussed below, we are lowering our 2010 real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast. At the same time, we are publicly unveiling our 2011 forecast - admittedly not nearly as anxiously awaited as LeBron's revelation. For the second half of 2010, we now are projecting annualized real GDP growth of 1.8% versus our May forecast of 2.5%. This lower second-half projection and the Commerce Department's revised lower first quarter growth reduces our Q4/Q4 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 2.2% versus May's forecast of 2.7%. As a result of our reduced 2010 real GDP growth projection, the forecast for the unemployment rate has been increased. For Q4:2010, we now place the average unemployment rate at 10.3% versus the May forecast of 10.0%. Our Q4/Q4 2011 forecast for real GDP growth is 3.2%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, July 08, 2010

Fastest Growth in 4 Years Retail Sales Hype / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Wall Street Journal reports Retailers Turn in a Mixed Bag for June Sales.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Signs of Cooling U.S. Economy in ISM and Jobs Data / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn yet another sign the economy is cooling substantially, three components of the June Services ISM are now in contraction, with the overall index declining much faster than economists expected.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, July 03, 2010

Really Dismal Unemployment Numbers a Central Banker's Nightmare / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSome Really Dismal Numbers
Unemployment Went Down?
Earnings Take a Hit
Money Supply Concerns
A Central Banker's Nightmare
Why Don't You Reform Yourselves?

There’s a reason economics is called the dismal science, and weeks like this just give it further meaning. In economics, there is what you see and what you don’t. This week we are going to examine the headline data we all see and then take a look for what most observers do not see. Then we’ll try to think about what it all really means. With employment, housing, and the ISM numbers, there is a lot to cover. And this letter will print out longer than usual, as there are a lot of charts. Warning: remove sharp objects from the vicinity and pour yourself your favorite adult beverage. This does not make for fun reading.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, June 28, 2010

U.S. Economy Mid Year Economic Forecast 2010 / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: Most textbook economists say that the U.S. economy is engaged in a broad-based recovery. But while there's a consensus that there's no "double-dip" recession on the horizon, the evidence suggests the nation's economy is headed for a slowdown in the second half of 2010.

The reason: In a market that derives 70% of its growth from consumer spending, the last half of this year will be all about those consumers - and about the economy's inability to generate enough jobs to keep the nation's cash registers ringing.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Terms of Trade Superiority at Forecasting U.S. Real GDP! / Economics / US Economy

By: Francois_Soto

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleECRI Weekly LEI Issue
Many market participants are debating whether or not a double dip recession will occur within the next quarters. As we are writing our report, ECRI Weekly LEI fell quickly to 122.5 points from 134.7 in April. This indicator did a good job leading U.S. Real GDP Y/Y by 6 months over the last two decades. However, ECRI Weekly LEI recently became quite unreliable as it increased up to 25% Y/Y in April, a level consistent with an unrealistic 8% U.S. Real GDP Y/Y! You can notice the problem on the left chart below.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, June 21, 2010

101 Scary Thoughts about the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Gary_North

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article1. The crucial objective factor promoting economic growth in a private property social order is per capita investment.

2. Americans save less than 5% of household income.

3. The Federal Reserve System runs the show economically; Congress doesn't.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, June 21, 2010

Consumer Deleveraging: the New “wall of worry” / Economics / US Economy

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEverywhere one turns it seems that fear lurks just behind the corner, just waiting to pounce. Every day we’re bombarded by fear in the news headlines, be it from a financial, economic or geopolitical perspective. Nowhere is this more apparent than the current fear campaign over the U.S. debt situation, specifically, consumer deleveraging.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

As the Stimulus Fades U.S. Economy and Stock Market Loses Steam / Economics / US Economy

By: Claus_Vogt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the past two years, we’ve seen the largest stimulus policies the world has ever produced.

As a result, sovereign debt and central banks’ balance sheet holdings have gone through the roof!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, June 14, 2010

U.S. Economy Slows as States Lose Federal Stimulus Funds / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor only the second time in 50 years, state budget cuts will act as a fiscal drag on GDP as noted by Bloomberg in Economy in U.S. Slows as States Lose Federal Stimulus Funds.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Investors Face Long-term Structural Changes of Lower Growth, Higher Volatility and Unemployment / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

The Frog in the Frying Pan
Three Structural Changes
The Economy Won't Produce Enough Jobs
The End Game
Like an Army But with No Discipline

Tonight I am in Venice, but I have arranged for a special edition of Thoughts from the Frontline, written by Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception, a research firm in London. I have been corresponding with Jonathan for some time, and we have had some solid, and lately quite frequent, conversations. I am very impressed with this young man, whose perceptions and insights I find quite thoughtful.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, June 11, 2010

After Government Economic Stimulus / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is perhaps no better example of the destructive nature of government intervention than the current housing and retail goods markets. For the past three years a spend-happy Congress lavished these areas with stimulus spending, tax credits, and other palliatives all aimed at papering over the structural defects in these markets. In the case of housing, the problem was years of easy money, sky-high prices, and zero-standards lending.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, June 04, 2010

U.S. Economy Stalling as Easy Money Effect Wears Off! / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Larson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe evidence is coming fast and furious — and it all points in the same direction! Washington’s “bought and paid for” economic recovery is stalling out as the easy money effect wears off.

Just consider what we’ve learned in the past several days …

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, June 04, 2010

Stubbornly High Unemployment Shows U.S. Economy Still Plagued by Jobless Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: While a surge in corporate profits reflect an improving economy, several government reports show that the United States continues to be plagued by a lingering "jobless recovery."

Most analysts, including President Barack Obama, are predicting a strong May jobs report due out today (Friday) with more than 500,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, June 04, 2010

MasterCard Study Says Consumer Spending Has Taken A Break / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMichael McNamara, Vice President, Research and Analysis for SpendingPulse, observes Consumer Takes a Respite as Spending in Many Sectors Declines.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, June 03, 2010

Countdown to U.S. Economic Collapse / Economics / US Economy

By: Pravda

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMichael Snyder writes: So just how bad is the U.S. economy? Well, the truth is that sometimes it is hard to put into words. We have squandered the great wealth left to us by our forefathers, we have almost totally dismantled the world's greatest manufacturing base, we have shipped millions of good jobs overseas and we have piled up the biggest mountain of debt in the history of mankind.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

The Economic Impact of the Horrific Gulf Oil Spill / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_Mladjenovic

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs I watch from a distance the great catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico, I think with great concern what the impact will be above and beyond the monumental environmental impact for the immediate areas.

Beyond the corporate and governmental blunders, blaming and dithering, we have to recognize what must be done and also what we face as a society.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, May 28, 2010

Gerald Celente Clash of the Economists - What's Next For Our Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Videos

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleABC6 News Anchor John DeLuca sat down with two prominent economists, with two drastically different outlooks for the nation's economy.

Gerald Celente, Director of the Trends Research Institute, sees a very bleak future for the United States, and a major collapse coming soon for the entire nation, maybe the entire world.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

U.S.A Drops From 1st to 3rd Most Competitive Country / Economics / US Economy

By: Pravda

The United States of America has, for the first time in a decade, fallen from first place to third in the ranking of the Most Competitive Countries, according to the World Competitiveness Yearbook 2010, drawn up by the Institute for Management Development in Switzerland.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

The U.S. Economy Really is in Trouble / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlthough industrial production has continued to grow manufacturing has started to slow. There were mass layoffs in April with manufacturing taking the lead. The Fed reported that that its index of manufacturing activity for New York, New Jersey and Connecticut had slowed significantly while the Philadelphia Fed reported that manufacturing growth had decelerated and that in May there was a significant drop in orders for manufactured goods. Adding to the woe was a report by The Conference Board that its index of leading economic indicators dropped in April, the first fall in about twelve months. What the devil is going on? Without a doubt this is the worst 'recovery' in post-war history.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, May 22, 2010

The True State of Today’s U.S. Economy, Facts Vs Fiction / Economics / US Economy

By: David_Galland

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBy David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report : There is a lot of “noise” being tossed out by the politicos and their preferred pundits about how the U.S. economy is on the mend. Thus it is important to try and separate fact from fiction about where things really stand.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, May 10, 2010

April U.S. Jobs Report, Should We Be Upbeat on Unemployment? / Economics / US Economy

By: Douglas_French

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe April jobs report was described as "upbeat," with the reported 290,000 positive job gain the best in four years. "It clearly shows that this economic recovery can no longer be seen as a jobless one," said Bart van Ark, chief economist of research firm The Conference Board. "Companies apparently are finding they can't squeeze out any more output without adding workers."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, May 06, 2010

U.S. Anemic GDP Growth Rate Not Good Enough / Economics / US Economy

By: Hans_Wagner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn normal times, a 3.2 percent GDP growth rate for the United States is good. In the 1980’s the U.S. suffered another severe recession. During that recovery, GDP grew at a 7 to a 9 percent rate for more than one year. A 3.2 percent GDP annual growth rate barely creates enough jobs to keep up with the expanding population. It does nothing for all those who lost their jobs and are looking for work. The U.S. unemployment rate is 9.7 percent and the underemployment rate, a more accurate measure of the true unemployment situation is running at the 16.5% level.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Monday, May 03, 2010

Was There A Plan to Blow Up The U.S. Economy? / Politics / US Economy

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany people now believe that the financial crisis was not an accident. They think that the Bush administration and the Fed knew what Wall Street was up to and provided their support. This isn't as far fetched as it sounds. As we will show, it's clear that Bush, Greenspan and many other high-ranking officials understood the problem with subprime mortgages and knew that a huge asset bubble was emerging that threatened the economy. But while the housing bubble was more than just an innocent mistake, it doesn't rise to the level of "conspiracy" which Webster defines as "a secret agreement between two or more people to perform an unlawful act." It's actually worse than that, because bubblemaking is the dominant policy, and it's used to overcome the structural problems in capitalism itself, mainly stagnation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, April 30, 2010

Reconnecting Wall Street to Main Street / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHemant Kathuria writes: Much has been made about how the massive bailouts of Wall Street firms have come at the expense of US taxpayers. And after having posted record profits during the peak of the real estate boom, it is easy to understand Main Street's anger at picking up the multi-trillion dollar tab - especially as Wall Street's bonus machine is spinning once again.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Financial Reform Bill Will Devastate U.S. Economy, and Goldman Sachs CDO's Squared / Stock-Markets / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFirst, Let's Kill the Angels
Equal Choice, Equal Access, Equal Opportunity
Some Quick Thoughts on Goldman
La Jolla and Dallas

When you draft a 1,300-page "financial reform" bill, various special interests get language tucked into the bill to help their agendas. However, the unintended consequences can be devastating. And the financial reform bill has more than a few such items. Today, we look briefly at a few innocent paragraphs that could simply kill the job-creation engine of the US. I know that a few Congressmen and even more staffers read my letter, so I hope that someone can fix this. The Wall Street Journal today noted that the bill, while flawed, keeps getting better with each revision. Let's hope that's the case here.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, April 17, 2010

U.S. Economy and Interest Rate Forecasts Update / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt has been a while since we last wrote an economic and interest rate update - February 22, to be exact. There are two reasons for the absence of a March update - heavy travel schedule and not much new to say on the subject. In the broad scheme of things, the only significant change to the forecast is with respect to inflation. Back in February, we were expecting the CPI to increase by 2.5% in 2010 on a Q4/Q4 basis. Now we are forecasting an increase of only 1.7%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, April 12, 2010

U.S. Economy Catch-22 of a China Yuan Currency Revaluation / Economics / US Economy

By: Colin_Brodhead

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe stage has been set for a play of the utmost irony, coupled to an acceleration in the decline of the fundamental U.S. economy. Members of the U.S. Congress have recently urged the Treasury Department to declare China a "currency manipulator," thus implicitly threatening China with punitive measures if it does not allow the value of its currency to rise against the dollar.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, April 09, 2010

Why the Fed Won’t Rescue America’s Plunging Savings Rate / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: In the 1992 election campaign, H. Ross Perot predicted a "giant sucking sound" of U.S. jobs heading for Mexico if the North American Free Trade Agreement passed. Perot seems to have been wrong on that - wherever U.S. jobs have gone, it's not Mexico.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, April 09, 2010

U.S. Consumers Are Back", Mish Says "Show Me The Money" / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarketWatch is reporting March sales are fresh signal that U.S. consumers are back.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, April 08, 2010

Consumer Balance Sheet and Consumer Spending in Perspective Economic Recovery Implications / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHere is an interesting chart on Consumer Balance Sheet, Savings Rate, and Debt Service Ratio posted by Barry Ritholtz.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, April 06, 2010

Dollar Yuan Exchange Rate Issues to Dominate China U.S. April Summit Visit / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Chinese President Hu Jintao will attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C. on April 12-13. One of the main agenda items of this summit is to fashion a multilateral strategy to deal with Iran's suspected nuclear weapons development program. But the announcement of President Hu's attendance at this summit has set off speculation that the Chinese government is prepared to let the yuan appreciate versus the U.S. dollar. From about July 2005 through June 2008, the yuan was allowed to slowly appreciate versus the dollar. But in July 2008 as the global financial crisis was intensifying, the Chinese government stabilized the yuan/dollar exchange rate. (See Chart 1.)

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, April 04, 2010

U.S. Dollar Gains on March Jobs Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: LiveCharts

For only the second time in the 27 month period since the start of the US recession, employers have added jobs.  This is the news from the US Labor Department in its monthly payroll report for March released early Friday (April 2) morning.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, April 04, 2010

Underemployment In The U.S. Rises to 20.3% in March / Economics / US Economy

By: Dian_L_Chu

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReports from the Labor Department today showed companies in the U.S. created more jobs in March than at any time in the past three years, showing the recovery is broadening and becoming more entrenched. 

Payrolls rose by 162,000 workers, the most gain since March 2007, though the increase included 48,000 temporary Census workers. Unemployment remains at 9.7% for a third month.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, April 04, 2010

U.S. Friday Jobs Report / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMost markets are closed Friday.  Japan was open and they went up 41 points (0.37%) and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index also went up 0.3% in Tokyo 1trading and Russia fell 0.1% but markets in Australia, Hong Kong, China, New Zealand, Singapore, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, the U.S. and all of western Europe are closed today for holidays.  Strangely though, the Futures Market is open this morning so that can make things very tricky on a big data day like today.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

U.S. Unemployment Increasing Seasonal Adjustment Amplitude / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy question is on the the increasing amplitude of BLS seasonal adjustments as noted in BLS Seasonal Adjustments Gone Haywire; 11% Unemployment Coming by May?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

U.S. Census Numbers Uncensored / Economics / US Economy

By: Casey_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleVedran Vuk, Casey Research writes: The Census aims to be every man’s hero. It promises an economic stimulus, a reduction in unemployment, and greater funds for every community. Of course, the reality is much closer to a game of musical chairs with your money. And guess who will be left standing?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Saturday, March 27, 2010

More Greenspan Financial Crisis Excuses / Politics / US Economy

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGreenspan is all over the place on here, just trying to cover his inneptitude. He claims this is a once in a century event while the US has to reel in it's debt. I got news for Greenspan, the bubble crashes will only get worse. We have the same system and it will only become more and more difficult for $1 trillion to magically appear to save these 'Bubbles'.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Growing Gap between Government and Private Sector Benefits / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Michael Mandel, former chief economist for BusinessWeek, is now writing on his own blog. Please consider his latest post on The Growing Gap between Govt and Private Sector Benefits.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, March 20, 2010

China Currency Dispute Threat to U.S. Muddle Through Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleO Canada
The Threat to Muddle Through
Back to 1971
The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars
GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports

If the Chinese allowed the renminbi to rise, would that make the USA better off? That is the contention of a cabal of critics from Senators to Nobel laureates. Paul Krugman wants to see a 25% tariff on Chinese goods. Today we examine that idea, and look at the real problems that we face. If only it were so easy. The numbers just don't add up. The fault, dear Brutus...

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, March 11, 2010

U.S. Economic Recovery Has Stalled, Unemployment Claims at 462,000 / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAny economists blaming snow for recent weekly claims reports need to search for additional excuses. Once again, today's numbers appear like reporting in the movie Groundhog Day.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

The Three most IMMINENT Economic Disasters. How to survive … / Economics / US Economy

By: Sean_Brodrick

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOf all the major disasters and threats to your security ahead — and all the major profit opportunities — three stand out as the most imminent of all:

Disaster #1: America’s Empire of Debt. If you think Americans are living a normal life, think again. Our entire consumer economy, lifestyle, livelihood — and nearly all or wealth — is predicated on one thing: DEBT.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, February 03, 2010

A Mortally Wounded Private Sector / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

The President’s 2011 budget proposal was so outrageously egregious that Obama had to hold a special conference on Monday just to spin the news.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, January 31, 2010

US GDP: The breakdown / Economics / US Economy

By: Vishal_Damor

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleU.S. government declared its fourth quarter GDP which grew at a 5.7% annual rate. This number didn’t result from actual economic growth per se, but from a slower rate of decline of inventories.  Inventory numbers that were falling at a slower rate acccounted for approximately 3.4% of the 5.7% GDP growth at the end of 2009. There has been a decrease in inventories for seven quarters in a row. Private businesses decreased inventories $33.5 billion in the fourth quarter, following a bigger decrease of $139.2 billion in the third quarter and an even biggerdecrease of $160.2 billion in the second.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 29, 2010

U.S Economy's Secret Weapon for Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: The U.S. employment picture isn't pretty. At 10%, the unemployment rate is at its highest level in nearly three decades, and it's expected to move higher. American employers cut 4.2 million jobs last year, and nearly 15.3 million people are unemployed.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Robert Shiller on Flawed Economic Theory and the U.S. Housing Market Signs of Life / Economics / US Economy

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRobert Shiller discusses flawed economic theory that forgets that people drive economy, financial sector regulation and signs of life bubbling back into the U.S. Housing Market.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

What Should We Make of Obama's "Spending Freeze" / Politics / US Economy

By: Washingtons_Blog

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe big news today is Obama's proposed "spending freeze".

Fiscal liberals say this cuts spending at the exact time that we most need to increase it.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Social Security “Fixes” Will Compound Existing Economic Problems / Economics / US Economy

By: Nilus_Mattive

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI take retirement matters very seriously, which is why I’m constantly on the alert for any hint of a change coming out of Washington.

And make no mistake: There have been times when I agree with new legislation. For example, I had no problem with the temporary suspension of required minimum distributions last year. I also love this year’s revamped Roth conversion laws.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

U.S. Economic Collapse, Foundations of the Economy have been Destroyed / Economics / US Economy

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe vast majority of the talking heads on television are still speaking of the current economic collapse as if it is a temporary “recession” that will soon be over. So far, the vast majority of the American people seem to believe this as well, although for many Americans there is a very deep gnawing in the pit of their stomachs that is telling them that there is something very, very wrong this time around. The truth is that the foundations of the U.S. economy have been destroyed by an orgy of government, corporate and individual debt that has gone on for decades. It was the greatest party in the history of the world, but now the party is over.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Google Cyberattacks China's War on the U.S. Economy / Politics / US Economy

By: Peter_Navarro

China's recent cyberattacks against Google and as many as 33 other U.S. corporations open up a dangerous new industrial espionage front in Beijing's war on American business.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Unemployment The Most Important Challenge Facing the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Claus_Vogt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrom the start of the economic and financial crisis that began in 2007, I made it clear that this was not a garden variety recession. Instead, I said, it was the aftermath of the bursting of the largest real estate bubble the world had ever seen.

Many developments of the past three years support my thesis. Now I predict that this will not be a garden variety recovery either. We should expect some false starts in the economy and a bear market rally for stocks.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, January 03, 2010

United States a Ponzi Scheme that Works! / Economics / US Economy

By: Trader_Mark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNotwithstanding the fact that even the much respect magazine, The Economist, now implies America as a Ponzi scheme (a troubling development), let's see an opposite view to this morning's take by Eric Sprott
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Friday, December 25, 2009

Fragile U.S. Economy Under Increasing Stress from Escalating Afghanistan War / Politics / US Economy

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSherwood Ross writes: If Iraq war spending helped plunge the U.S. economy into its worst slump since the Depression, what does President Obama think his escalation of the Afghan war will do it?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors: Asian Views on America / Economics / US Economy

By: Trader_Mark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Kotok of Cumberland Advisors is a frequent guest on CNBC and unlike many of the bullish, seal clapping brigade often brings pragmatic realism to the TV screen.  In his latest missive from last week he reflects on observations from his latest trip to Asia, and I think there are some very compelling insights for American readers who have been indoctrinated in American exceptionalism since birth. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 20, 2009

This Black Friday Will Be More Important Than Most! / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe day after the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., known as Black Friday, traditionally marks the beginning of the holiday shopping season in the U.S.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 20, 2009

U.S. Economy is a Geriatric on Viagra / Economics / US Economy

By: Brian_Bloom

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA retired friend, an academic in a field unrelated to the subject of economics or finance, recently asked me to tell him what I thought was happening in these (to him) surreal worlds. Why are some people so bearish that they were effectively anticipating the end of the world whilst others are insisting that a bull market is upon us?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, November 19, 2009

United States at Recession or Inflation Crossroads / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Browne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. economy is in uncertain times. Analysts are split between those seeing recovery and those fearing a second downturn. This confusion is being echoed in the highest levels of government as President Obama simultaneously speaks about the need for more federal spending and warns of the dangers of increased debt. As the volatile markets indicate, investors are not only confused - they are seriously concerned.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

United States Economy At Zero Hour To Service Debt Mountain / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday's Outside the Box comes to us from England. My European partner Niels Jensen from time to time sends me some of the best letters he reads from the hedge fund world. He is an excellent filter for me, and this week's Outside the Box offering is no exception. Below is the November commentary from Eclectica fund manager Hugh Hendry. He challenges the current preoccupation with the falling dollar and China, and posits what would happen if that thinking is wrong? It offers some very thought-provoking ideas. You can contact them for more information at info@eclectica-am.com or visit their website: http://www.eclectica-am.com

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, October 29, 2009

U.S. Q3 GDP, Watch the Consumer Component / Economics / US Economy

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Aside from whether US Q3 GDP growth will stand above the 3.0%, markets will watch the contribution from the US consumer versus that of inventory restocking. Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is expected +3.0% after -0.9% and +0.6% in Q2 and Q1. Risk appetite will particularly welcome any evidence of a consumer-led recovery, in which case could prove positive for equities and risk currencies (EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD). In the event that a rise in inventory accumulation overshadows the increase in personal consumption, a rally in risk assets (equities, commodities and higher yielding currencies) would be accompanied by renewed pressure in USD and JPY.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, October 12, 2009

EMphase Finance US Economics Monthly Report October 2009 / Economics / US Economy

By: Francois_Soto

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDear reader

EMphase Finance is proud to launch its new research service US Economics Monthly.
The goal of this publication is to provide in an executive format a clean, clear and concise overview of the US economy for both private and institutional clients.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, September 20, 2009

America's Berlin Wall, A Disaster That's Hard to Escap / Economics / US Economy

By: DailyWealth

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEditor's note: My friend Steve Sjuggerud is one of the most optimistic analysts I know� and he always manages to find big opportunities even in the worst market situations. That's why when Steve warns me something is going wrong, I always take notice. I know it's serious. Please read on for just such a warning...

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

U.S. Retail Sales Bounce on Federally Subsidized Auto Sales / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of my favorite sources of information is The Liscio Report by Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood. Among other things, each month they survey all the states about tax revenues, expenses and then give us the results in a very pithy fashion. No one pays taxes unless they have to, and thus taxes tell us a lot about the current spending and income situation. Taxes are a far more reliable indicator then surveys, which most "data" is based on.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Monday, September 14, 2009

The US Golden Age Is Over, Destruction of an Empire / Politics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEdward Gibbon described the happiest age of mankind as the period of the “five good emperors” between AD98 and AD180, when Marcus Aurelius died.

What was America’s Golden Age?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, September 04, 2009

Daily Economic Outlook, U.S. Non Farm Payroll Potential For Surprise / Economics / US Economy

By: Lloyds_TSB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleData from the US this week, notably the stronger-than-expected outcomes of the manufacturing and services ISM surveys, have raised the likelihood that the economy has returned to growth in the current quarter, ending the longest contraction since quarterly records started in 1947. However, the focus today is squarely on the labour market, an area of the economy that will significantly lag the wider recovery and represents the main downside risk to sustained economic growth.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Thursday, September 03, 2009

How to Lower the U.S. Deficit Without Killing Social Security / Politics / US Economy

By: Shamus_Cooke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen it was recently announced that the federal deficit was $2 trillion higher than previously estimated, corporate vultures — after years of high-altitude circling — began their descent.

The dying entity they’re after is the U.S. social safety net — Social Security, Medicare, etc.  Years of waiting have finally paid off; the long awaited pretext for scavenging has arrived in the huge federal deficit.&

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, August 15, 2009

What Are the Prospects for the US Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBob Chapman writes: “The trade of governing has always been monopolized by the most ignorant and the most rascally individuals of mankind.” — Thomas Paine

The 10-year note auction yielded 3.73%. The bid to cover was 2.49 to 1 versus the average of the last ten auctions of 2.48 to 1. Indirect participation was 45.7% versus an average of 30%; we believe this is because foreign central banks are buying in behalf of the Fed via money they swapped with them.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, July 17, 2009

Expect Seven Years of Subpar Economic Growth and High Unemployment / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBLS data shows Unemployment Rate Tops 10% In 15 States.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, July 10, 2009

United States Heading For National Socialism Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt was common on the left to intimate that George W. Bush was like Hitler, a remark that would drive the National Review crowd through the roof but which I didn't find entirely outrageous. Bush's main method of governance was to stir up fear of foreign enemies and instigate a kind of nationalist hysteria about the need for waging war and giving up liberty through security.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Another Victim of America’s Ponzi Scheme Economy (Part 2) / Politics / US Economy

By: Mike_Stathis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday, America’s “New Economy” is based exclusively on services - primarily financial and technology-based services, with a whole slew of attorneys and consultants to support transactions and legal agreements.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

The Passing of Billy Mays Will Boost My Personal Saving Rate / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

This is meant as no disrespect to the family of Billy Mays. Rather, it is intended as utmost admiration of the man. My house and garage are full of the products - almost two of each product - that Billy Mays advertised on basic cable television. He was one of the best salespersons I have ever seen. I would purchase almost anything Billy Mays was selling.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, July 05, 2009

Is the Fed Predicting Economic Stagnation for the US? / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor sometime now I have been pointing out that things would be bad, not because I prefer gloom to joy but because the Fed's disgraceful monetary shenanigans over the years made the current situation inevitable. In the meantime, the profoundly ignorant Obama and his statist cronies are making things far worse. And what do we get from the Fed? Well, allow me to refer you to Janet Yellen, President of the San Francisco Fed, who opined that the US can look forward a very slow recovery marked by high unemployment.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Unemployment Crisis Grips U.S. States / Economics / US Economy

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTom Eley writes: The unemployment rate increased in 48 of 50 states and Washington, DC, in May, according to US Department of Labor statistics. For the year as a whole, the jobless rate has increased in every state, and in eight states it is now at its highest level since 1976, when monthly state-level statistics were first issued by the federal government. The national jobless rate in May rose to 9.4 percent.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, June 22, 2009

The US Economy: Recession, Depression and Monetary Mismanagement / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Institute for Supply Management reports that May was the "16th consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector". Even though the contraction appears to be slowing the demand for capital goods continues to drop with no sign of a reversal in sight as of yet. Of course, this fall in demand has hit the producers of capital goods. In the meantime unemployment continues to rise with some commentators expecting it to reach 11 per cent before the year is out and maybe even climb to 12 per cent next year. Therefore the current signs suggest the US could be sliding into an actual depression, if it isn't there already.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Is Economic Recovery Closer Than You Think? / Economics / US Economy

By: Q1_Publishing

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe divide between bull and bear camps is growing wider each day.

There isn’t much middle ground. You’re either in it, waiting for a pullback, or waiting for the collapse.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Worst of the U.S. Recession Over / Economics / US Economy

By: Pravda

Oil prices soared above $71 a barrel Wednesday to reach a 2009 high, as investors poured money into crude markets to protect themselves against the inflation risks posed by a weakening U.S. dollar.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

What the Dramatic Turn in the U.S. Saving Rate Could Mean to You / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleClaus Vogt writes: During the past few weeks of exciting “green shoot” news, a very important economic statistic has been ignored: The U.S. saving rate.

U.S. citizens have been saving less and less since the early 1980s. And the saving rate even turned negative during the height of the real estate bubble.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, June 04, 2009

United States Destined to Become the Great Britain of the 21st Century? / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWHO ARE THOSE GUYS - Sheriff Ray Bledsoe: [to Butch and Sundance] You should have let yourself get killed a long time ago when you had the chance. See, you may be the biggest thing that ever hit this area, but you're still two-bit outlaws. I never met a soul more affable than you, Butch, or faster than the Kid, but you're still nothing but two-bit outlaws on the dodge. It's over, don't you get that? Your times is over and you're gonna die bloody, and all you can do is choose where.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

GM Bankruptcy, There Goes The Country / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Browne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday, after a painfully long death spiral, General Motors finally filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Oftentimes, bankruptcy portends rebirth. Unfortunately, the politically-inspired GM plan holds no such possibilities. Under the current deal, the restructuring of GM will cost taxpayers some $100 billion (after the hidden costs of interest and refinancing are included). Even then, it is highly unlikely that GM will ever be competitive or that its debts will ever be repaid. Far worse, the massive government bailout will delay rather than encourage broader economic recovery. And yet, U.S. stock markets rose on the GM announcement as if it were good news.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Are the US Consumers Ready to Go Shopping Again? / Economics / US Economy

By: Mark_OByrne

The recent Consumer Confidence survey conducted in the US revealed a surprising increase in consumer confidence for the month of May. In marked contrast to the previous few months, May's figure was the highest it has been since September 2008. However, while better than at the start of the year, the figure remains at historically depressed levels. Furthermore, US house prices have dropped over 18% in March from the same period last year.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Saturday, May 23, 2009

The Economy / Politics / US Economy

By: Kevin_Geary

An Original Children's Story in Pictures and Words by Kevin Geary ©2009
One day, the Bankers came to Congress and said, "We're completely broke!"

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, May 15, 2009

Why the Economy Will Recover Differently This Time / Economics / US Economy

By: Hans_Wagner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEventually the economy will stop declining and start to recover. The manner in which it recovers will provide investors substantial profits if they have a well-founded theme to base their investing strategy. This recession is the result of substantive changes in the economy that will be with us for years to come. Once the recover begins, we should have a good idea how each sector will deal with a stumble along economy. Since the stock market anticipates a recovery by rallying earlier, it is important for investors to be prepared for the changes that are coming.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

The Cost of Running a Global Empire / Politics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGenerals gathered in their masses
Just like witches at black masses
Evil minds that plot destruction
Sorcerers of deaths construction


Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Monday, March 30, 2009

Noam Chomsky on Geithner the U.S. Economy and Democracy / Politics / US Economy

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleVideo & Transcript - Chomsky: Plan is recycled Bush/Paulson. We need nationalization and steps towards democratization.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, March 26, 2009

United States Economy, U.S. Dollar and the China Factor / Economics / US Economy

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA crisis of global confidence in the US Dollar is upon us. Foreigners have begun to lose respect for USGovt approach to problem solving, for US bank administration, and for US Dollar custodial management. Foreigner creditors have suffered deep losses from fraudulent bond export, continue to sit atop mountains of US$-based debt securities, and watch current events in horror. The heap of moldy paper includes both USTreasury Bonds and USAgency Mortgage Bonds. Foreigner creditors see the US Dollar valuation propped up by liquidation forces rather than US Economic strength. Foreigner creditors see the USTBond yields forced down by liquidation forces rather than USGovt debt integrity.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

When the United States Ruled the World / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI used to rule the world
Seas would rise when I gave the word
Now in the morning I sleep alone
Sweep the streets I used to own


Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, March 09, 2009

Collapse of the United States, Repeating the Same Mistakes as the Soviet Union / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAuthor Dmitry Orlov in the following video explains why the United States must work on creating a new economy rather than patching the old failed economy as the United States following the same trajectory as the former Soviet Union around debt, politics, militariasm and energy that ended in total economic and political collapse.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

The Old Consumer Economy Faces A New Era Of Thrift / Economics / US Economy

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe troubles in the financial markets over the last year will lead to a new era of thrift, and this will be radically different than the past 20 years of excesses as consumers change their habits. Consumers are already retrenching and increasing their savings amongst the economic uncertainty, but I think these changes portend an even deeper shift in personal behavior.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

The Other Looming $7 Trillion Financial Crisis: Social Security / Politics / US Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNilus Mattive writes: My new retirement report just went to press yesterday, so the material is fresh in my mind. And while I can't share the contents with you here in Money and Markets , there is one topic in that report that I want to talk about today.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

The End of the Consumer Credit Empire: Stairway to Retail Heaven / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere's a lady who's sure
All that glitters is gold
And she's buying a stairway to heaven

When she gets there she knows
If the stores are all closed
With a word she can get what she came for


Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Why the U.S. Economy is Designed to Fail / Politics / US Economy

By: Richard_C_Cook

President Barack Obama showed a great deal of gumption in standing before Congress last night delivering his first speech to the joint assembly. All the trappings of power were on display as members of the House and Senate, the Supreme Court, the Joint Chiefs, the Cabinet, and the VIP guests hugged and waved at each other, radiant in their tailored attire only two nights after the Hollywood stars put on their own show on Oscar night.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

How Can the U.S. Economy Recover Without Manufacturing Capacity? / Politics / US Economy

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"You can't put people to work in American factories that don't exist."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

How the US Economy Was Lost / Economics / US Economy

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePaul Craig Roberts writes: The American economy has gone away. It is not coming back until free trade myths are buried six feet under. America's 20th century economic success was based on two things. Free trade was not one of them. America's economic success was based on protectionism, which was ensured by the union victory in the Civil War, and on British indebtedness, which destroyed the British pound as world reserve currency. Following World War II, the US dollar took the role as reserve currency, a privilege that allows the US to pay its international bills in its own currency.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Pessimism Ahead of Friday's NonFarm Payrolls Jobs Report / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Any Hope for Job Growth? - This Friday's release on nonfarm payrolls will shine a burning light on our nation's need to promote growth and create new jobs. After losing 2.7 million jobs in 2008, projections are to start off 2009 with a 1/2 million reduction in payrolls. The unemployment rate which closed the year at 7.2% is expected to climb to 7.4% in this latest report.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

America and the Creation of an Economic Frankenstein / Politics / US Economy

By: Oxbury_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJim McTague has been writing articles for Barron's for a very long time. He's a better journalist than I and likely earns more money. He writes a column called D.C. Current for the august investment weekly and boasts the title Washington Editor. For my part… well, it's not nice to boast. The only thing the two of us may have in common is a Northern Irish distaste for all things orange and a love of the Pogues. The fact that our grandfathers once put the boots to a black and tan before his went and ratted out mine, I'll leave to another time.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Obituary of the Too Much Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Submissions

Our economy is in the process of burying the corpse of Too Much at the corner of Wall Street and Broad. Pall bearers will carry this leveraged ponzi scheme past the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank seeking alms from the poor. Our elected Representatives have decided the corpse will lie in state at the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol until these United States are bled to third world status.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 23, 2009

Unemployment: How Do We Measure A Shortage Of Work? / Economics / US Economy

By: Ronald_R_Cooke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Modest Proposal - According to the U. S. Department of Labor (DOL), employers cut 524,000 jobs in December, 2008. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 7.2%. That’s bad news for a struggling economy. Unemployed people have fewer spending options. They tend to buy only what they absolutely need. Food tops the list. Rent or mortgage payments come next. Then utility bills, emergency medical expenses, and money for transportation – most likely in the form of car or truck payments and fuel. Purchases of clothing, a new car, electronics, toys, and so on can be deferred. Savings erode all too quickly. Personal confidence ebbs. Family life is strained.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Social Mood Will Define The Economic Future / Politics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBoomers have known only inflationary or reflationary conditions for most, if not all of their conscious lives. Here is the pattern: Want, work, borrow, spend, enjoy, and worry about the bills tomorrow, as if tomorrow would never come.

Now tomorrow is dawning, the bills are due, and boomers are now entering end of life with a need to consume what they perceived would be a treasure chest of accumulated wealth that would allow them to sustain their inflationary lifestyles to life's end.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Last Nail in the Coffin for the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: The government has just released one of the most shocking federal budget reports of all time.

Even if you overlook the gaping holes in their economic assumptions, it's obvious the federal deficit is going to deliver a punch below the belt of the economy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

U.S. Consumer Booms Inevitable Bust / Economics / US Economy

By: Oxbury_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Nation Named Desire - Classic film buffs will be familiar with the 1951 film – A Streetcar Named Desire – which starred Marlon Brando and Vivian Leigh. My favorite scene in the film involves Blanche DuBois (Vivian Leigh) and Stanley Kowalski (Marlon Brando).

Blanche DuBois is a fallen woman – her family fortune and estate are gone. In an absolutely classic line, Blanche says to Stanley Kowalski - “I have always depended on the kindness of strangers”.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Obama Ups U.S. Job Creation Program to 4 Million / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile increasing his jobs creation forecast to 4 million jobs, Obama Calls for Sacrifice, Scaling Back Campaign Promises .
President-elect Barack Obama said turning around the U.S. economy will require cutting back on some campaign promises and personal sacrifice from Americans.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 02, 2009

United States a Banana Republic? / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Well, agriculturally speaking the answer is no: the United States has minimal banana production and the four leading exporters of the fruit are all located south of the Tropic of Cancer. Sadly, however, once you “peel” away the façade, the U.S. has recently embraced economic policies that could soon lead us to carrying the moniker of “banana republic.” Hanlon, being the optimist that he is, gets a little queasy when I use such phrases, but since respectable figures such as Steve Forbes and Larry Kudlow have even raised the question lately, he'll hold his nose and indulge me here!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Saturday, December 27, 2008

What Happened to the American Dream? / Politics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“The American Dream is that dream of a land in which life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement. It is a difficult dream for the European upper classes to interpret adequately, and too many of us ourselves have grown weary and mistrustful of it. It is not a dream of motor cars and high wages merely, but a dream of social order in which each man and each woman shall be able to attain to the fullest stature of which they are innately capable, and be recognized by others for what they are, regardless of the fortuitous circumstances of birth or position." --Historian and writer James Truslow Adams in his 1931 book Epic of America.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, December 12, 2008

Our Asset Value Trend Dependent Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Tim_Iacono

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Federal Reserve's latest Flow of Funds Report contains some painful news about how our asset-dependent economy is faring in what is now an increasingly asset-averse world. This time around we have double the trouble as prices for both stocks and housing are declining.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 28, 2008

Retail Sales to Suffer in 2009 as U.S. Consumers Cut Spending / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJennifer Yousfi writes: Retail experts are predicting one of the most dismal holiday shopping seasons in decades this year – a crucial stretch that will set the stage for poor retail sales throughout 2009.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Obama Unveils Economic Team and 2.5 Million Job Stimulus Plan / Politics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Jason Simpkins writes: President-elect Barack Obama yesterday (Monday) formally unveiled his economic team, including the nomination of New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy F. Geithner as the new administration's U.S. Treasury secretary. The team's first challenge will be assembling an economic stimulus package that could be even larger than the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) the Bush Administration has deployed.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Black Friday Approaches for Retailers as Holiday Shopping Season Begins / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

William Patalon III writes: As Thanksgiving approaches, the American people should be thankful for the declining gasoline prices that help enable many of them to afford holiday travel this year.  Speaking of the holiday, after the traditional bird has been devoured, one additional time honored tradition remains – shopping. The Friday after Thanksgiving, known as “Black Friday,” represents the official start of the holiday shopping season. Historically, it is the day that retailers moved out of the “red” (losses) and into the “black” (profits).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Obama's First Moves on the Financial Crisis and Foreign Policy / Politics / US Economy

By: STRATFOR

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThree weeks after the U.S. presidential election, we are getting the first signs of how President-elect Barack Obama will govern. That now goes well beyond the question of what is conventionally considered U.S. foreign policy — and thus beyond Stratfor's domain. At this moment in history, however, in the face of the global financial crisis , U.S. domestic policy is intimately bound to foreign policy. How the United States deals with its own internal financial and economic problems will directly affect the rest of the world.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

UK Inflation CPI Falls Sharply as Economy Heads for Deflation / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK inflation as measured by the CPI slumped by the largest amount since the series began in 1997, falling from 5.2% to 4.5%. This follows hard on the heels of the Bank of England's panic 1.5% interest rate cut earlier in the month which was accompanied by BOE statements that UK economy would contract by 2% GDP during 2009, that puts the UK on target to experience a worse recession than that of the early 1990's as Gordon Browns boom turns to bust. The RPI measure which the BoE also warned was heading towards deflation i.e. a negative RPI during 2009 fell sharply from 5% to 4.2%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, November 15, 2008

End of the Era of Big Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_J_Panzner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFriday morning, the Commerce Department announced that October retail sales fell 2.8%, the fourth straight drop and the worst one-month decline since records began in 1992. Stripping out sales of autos and gasoline, the year-over-year total rose just 1.5%, less than the rate of inflation and the worst 12-month rate of change since February 2003.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 17-21) / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe week ahead in financial markets will see a modest quantity of data that will hit the tapes largely on Thursday and Friday. The major market moving events will be the Friday release of the October advance retail sales data and the Thursday release of the US Trade Balance, Jobless Claims and the US Budget Statement. On Friday in Frankfurt Germany, Fed Chair Bernanke and ECB President Trichet will lead a cast of global central banking all-stars that will address monetary policy within the current global financial crisis.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, November 10, 2008

U.S. Economic Pain Precedes Greatest Investment Opportunity of a Generation / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: If there's a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it's the one that says: “It's always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 10-14) / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe week ahead in financial markets will see a modest quantity of data that will hit the tapes largely on Thursday and Friday. The major market moving events will be the Friday release of the October advance retail sales data and the Thursday release of the US Trade Balance, Jobless Claims and the US Budget Statement. On Friday in Frankfurt Germany, Fed Chair Bernanke and ECB President Trichet will lead a cast of global central banking all-stars that will address monetary policy within the current global financial crisis.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Obama Could Avoid Depression by Rebuilding America's Crumbling Infrastructure / Economics / US Economy

By: Jennifer_Barry

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn a daily basis, we drive on paved roads over bridges, take a hot shower, turn the lights on and off, and take out the trash. Most of us take these experiences for granted, expecting that our needs will be satisfied in a safe and convenient way. The universal availability of these services differentiates a modern country from a developing nation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 07, 2008

Jobs Contract 10th Straight Month; Unemployment Soars To 6.5% / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBefore taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 07, 2008

Non-Farm Payrolls Collapse in October as U.S. Unemployment Rate Soars / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

The October estimate of non-farm payrolls saw firms reduce payrolls by -240K for the month and the rate of unemployment jump sharply to 6.5%. Revisions made by Labor Department subtract an additional -179K over the past two months. The decline in October's payroll tally has reduced employment by 1.2mln during the first 10 months of 2008, with over half of that total occurring over the past 90 days. The household survey saw a decline of -297K, which is above its three-month average of -287K. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 603K to 10.1mln in October.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

United States Entering its Darkest Period In History / Politics / US Economy

By: Dr_Janice_Dorn

As predicted in The Big Rollover Thesis that we first presented in 2005, we are on the cusp of entering the darkest period in history that most of us have ever experienced. The people that really know about this are the Silent Generation. They feel it intensely because they were either born into it or grew up in it. They want to speak about it, but are either silenced or in fear. At a time when we need their guidance, ageism is upon us, and no one wants to listen to them.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, November 03, 2008

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 3-7) / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe first week of November will see another heavy week of data releases on the calendar that will feature the first significant look at the data from the real economy in October, when the credit markets seized up. The primary market-moving event will be the Friday publication of the October estimate of non-farm payrolls that we expect to contract by -225K. The week will kick off with the release of the October ISM survey of manufacturing conditions nationwide, total vehicle sales and the construction spending report for September.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 02, 2008

LIBOR Unfreezing as Fed Takes Aggressive Action to Boost Economy / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCNNMoney.com: Bernanke discusses future of Fannie and Freddie
“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that the federal government will need to continue to play a role in the future of the mortgage financing market.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Monday, October 27, 2008

U.S. Government Spending the Economy into Oblivion / Politics / US Economy

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

With news this week that Congress is poised to consider a new stimulus package, I am forced to again ask a question that seems silly in Washington: How will we pay for this?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, October 27, 2008

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 27-31) / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter the heaviest week of Fed talk and macro data releases in recent memory, the calendar will see a very light week of rhetoric and economic releases. Monday, will see the publication of the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, Thursday the weekly jobless claims data and the week will conclude with the publication of the September existing home sales.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, October 24, 2008

Upping the Economic Stimulus Dosage / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInsanity is often defined as repeating the same actio