Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The Three M's of Hyperinflation : Milosevic, Mugabe, And Maduro - 26th May 19
Global Multi-Market / Asset Charts Review - 26th May 19
An Oil Shock Could Be the Black Swan That Finally Drives Gold Higher - 26th May 19
Brexit Party Forces Theresa May to Resign, Boris Johnson Next Tory Prime Minister? - 26th May 19
IBM - Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Stocks - 25th May 19
Seasonal Dysfunction: Why Generations of Gold and Silver Investors Are Having Such Difficulty - 25th May 19
Employment - The Good and the Bad of Job Automation - 25th May 19
Gold Mining Mid-Tier Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 19
Buy This Pick-and-Shovel 5G Stock Before It Takes Off - 25th May 19
China Hang Seng Stocks Index Collapses and Commodities - 24th May 19
Costco Corp. (COST): Finding Opportunity in Five Minutes or Less - 24th May 19
How Free Bets Have Impacted the Online Casino Industry - 24th May 19
This Ultimate Formula Will Help You Avoid Dividend Cutting Stocks - 24th May 19
Benefits of a Lottery Online Account - 24th May 19
Technical Analyst: Gold Price Weakness Should Be Short Term - 24th May 19
Silver Price Looking Weaker than Gold - 24th May 19
Nigel Farage's Brexit Party EU Elections Seats Results Forecast - 24th May 19
Powerful Signal from Gold GDX - 24th May 19
Eye Opening Currency Charts – Why Precious Metals Are Falling - 23rd May 19
Netflix Has 175 Days Left to Pull Off a Miracle… or It’s All Over - 23rd May 19
Capitalism Works, Ravenous Capitalism Doesn’t - 23rd May 19
The Euro Is Bidding Its Time: A Reversal at Hand? - 23rd May 19
Gold Demand Rose 7% in Q1 2019. A Launching Pad Higher for Gold? - 23rd May 19
Global Economic Tensions Translate Into Oil Price Volatility - 22nd May 19
The Coming Pension Crisis Is So Big That It’s a Problem for Everyone - 22nd May 19
Crude Oil, Hot Stocks, and Currencies – Markets III - 22nd May 19
The No.1 Energy Stock for 2019 - 22nd May 19
Brexit Party and Lib-Dems Pull Further Away from Labour and Tories in Latest Opinion Polls - 22nd May 19
The Deep State vs Donald Trump - US vs Them Part 2 - 21st May 19
Deep State & Financial Powers Worry about Alternative Currencies - 21st May 19
Gold’s Exciting Boredom - 21st May 19
Trade War Fears Again, Will Stocks Resume the Downtrend? - 21st May 19
Buffett Mistake Costs Him $4.3 Billion This Year—Here’s What Every Investor Can Learn from It - 21st May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - Video - 20th May 19
A Brief History of Financial Entropy - 20th May 19
Gold, MMT, Fiat Money Inflation In France - 20th May 19
WAR - Us versus Them Narrative - 20th May 19
US - Iran War Safe-haven Reasons to Own Gold - 20th May 19
How long does Google have to reference a website? - 20th May 19
Tory Leadership Contest - Will Michael Gove Stab Boris Johnson in the Back Again? - 19th May 19
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally - 19th May 19
Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? - 19th May 19
US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 - 19th May 19
BrExit Party EarthQuake Could Win it 150 MP's at Next UK General Election! - 18th May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - 18th May 19
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher - 18th May 19
Trump’s Trade War Is Good for These 3 Dividend Stocks - 18th May 19
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update - 17th May 19
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? - 17th May 19
The Use of Technical Analysis for Forex Traders - 17th May 19
Brexit Party Set to Storm EU Parliament Elections - Seats Forecast - 17th May 19
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? - 17th May 19
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red - 17th May 19
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? - 17th May 19
How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019 - 16th May 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

Stock Markets Bounce on U.S. NFP Unemployment Data

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Sep 05, 2009 - 01:32 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEmployment Situation is less than meets the eye. - Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in August (-216,000), and the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Although job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors in August, the declines have moderated in recent months.


Benjamin Disraeli once said, “There are lies, damn lies and statistics.”  Let’s see how these statistics were massaged to get a happy result.  First, the Household Survey Data showed that unemployment increased by 466,000 in August.  Next, a look at the CES Birth/Death Model shows another 118,000 “hypothetical” new jobs.  Finally, if you look at, “ Total unemployed, plus all marginally  attached  workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force, the total unemployed number is…16.8%.

So, what is the real number of unemployed?  334,000?  Or 466,000??  Will we ever know?

Citi gets no pity.

 

The head of the committee overseeing how Uncle Sam is spending its bailout dollars offered withering criticism of the feds' handling of Citigroup's rescue, blasting regulators for their lack of transparency -- and the absence of any clear exit strategy.

Noting that other companies that have received federal aid have served up proposals to pay back the money, Elizabeth Warren, chairman of the Congressional Oversight Panel, had harsh words about the lack of such a plan in the case of Citi, which has received $45 billion in rescue cash.  Citi is more than one-third owned by US taxpayers.

   

Are the markets in a “sweet spot?”  Really???

SPX.png --U.S. stocks gained for a second day, paring a weekly decline for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as the pace of job losses slowed and the earnings outlook for technology companies improved. Policy makers are signaling they plan to leave emergency stimulus in place even as the global recession ends, delivering what Credit Suisse Group AG and Bank of America call a “sweet spot” for financial markets.

 

 

 

A contracting CPI may be good for bonds.

Bonds.png-- Treasuries were heading for a weekly gain before a Labor Department report that economists predict will show the U.S. lost jobs for a 20th month in August.  Ten-year notes have climbed for four weeks as investors bet rising unemployment will curb inflation, helping to preserve the value of the fixed payments on debt.  Technically, treasuries may maintain gains because of a head and shoulders pattern that implies a further rise.

 

 

 

 Gold breaks out of a triangle.

Gold.png--Gold fell from a six-month high in New York as some investors locked in gains from bullion’s rally toward $1,000 an ounce and as a rebounding dollar curbed demand.

 Gold futures reached $999.50 yesterday, the highest price since Feb. 23, and are heading for the biggest weekly gain since April.  The rally was attributed to Asian investors seeking a safe haven.

 

Japanese business cut spending to the bone.

Nikkei.png-- Japanese businesses cut spending for a ninth quarter as the global recession squeezed profits, underscoring the challenge for the incoming government to sustain a recovery from the country’s worst postwar slump.  Capital spending excluding software fell 22.2% in the three months ended June 30 from a year earlier, after dropping a record 25.4% in the previous quarter, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo.  Profits slid 53%.

 

 

Will China avoid the bear market?

Shanghai Index.png

-- The Shanghai Composite Index rose the most in six months yesterday on speculation the government would refrain from measures that would slow bank credit. The gauge slumped 22 percent last month, entering a so-called bear market, on concern tighter capital requirements would curtail lending and derail a recovery in the world’s third-largest economy.

 

 

The dollar shows no gains for 3 months.

US Dollar.png-- The dollar declined against higher- yielding currencies as stocks gained worldwide and before a report that may show U.S. payrolls dropped at the slowest pace in a year.  Investor sentiment is very much against the dollar, yet it hasn’t declined (nor risen for 3 months).  This trading range implies a strong move is in the offing.

 

 

 

 

What not to do in a recession.

Housing Index.png-- There are many things public officials probably shouldn't do during a severe recession, but no one seems to have told the leaders in Florida about them. One thing, for instance, would be giving a dozen top aides hefty raises while urging a rise in property taxes, as the mayor of Miami-Dade County recently did. Or jacking up already exorbitant hurricane-insurance premiums, as Florida's government-run property insurer just did. Or sending an army of highly paid lobbyists to push for a steep hike in electricity rates, as South Florida's public utility is doing.  No wonder people are leaving the Sunshine State!

 

 

Will a weak hurricane season help gasoline prices?

Gasoline.pngThe Energy Information Administration Weekly Report suggests that, “Falling for the third straight week, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline dropped one and a half cents to settle at $2.61 per gallon. The national average was $1.07 below the year-ago price. On the East Coast, the average slipped a penny to $2.60 per gallon. The price in the Midwest dropped almost three cents to $2.52 per gallon. The average price on the Gulf Coast remained the lowest of any region, dropping nearly three cents to $2.46 per gallon.” 

 

 

Natural gas prices still modest.

Natural Gas.pngThe Energy Information Agency’s Natural Gas Weekly Update reports, “Natural gas spot prices decreased on the week at all market locations, with declines of up to $0.68 per MMBtu. Dampened cooling demand in the northern parts of the lower 48 States, robust supplies of natural gas, and falling crude oil prices contributed to decreases in natural gas spot prices. Economic factors also likely affected natural gas spot prices. Equity markets experienced losses during the last 5 trading days, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 262 points and the S&P 500 Index losing more than 33 points. In addition, the U.S. Department of Labor reported higher-than-expected number of new jobless claims at 570,000.” 

 

Could we survive without the Fed?  The answer may surprise you.

The “Audit the Fed” act has a real chance in passing, but some supporters of the legislation, including Ron Paul, want to take it further than that by ending the Federal Reserve all together. Paul introduced a piece of follow-up legislation, entitled H.R. 833: The Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act which would wind down and eliminate the Federal Reserve over the course of the year. Currently, the act has no co-sponsors, but is gaining a lot of grass-roots support. Paul hopes that members of Congress will join his movement to end the Federal Reserve after they see the results of a full audit of the Federal Reserve. Paul also authored a book about his proposal to end the Federal Reserve, entitled “End the Fedhttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=gettgree-20&l=as2&o=1&a=0446549193.”

A look at Bernanke’s prototype.

There is something disarming about a technocrat. While it is easy to dismiss elected officials as blustering panderers, there is something comforting in the image of the specialist civil servant toiling away with industry and equanimity. We tend to imagine such an employee of the state poring over statistics as an ancient Greek priest might examine entrails, and carefully allocating resources like an Egyptian vizier allocating slaves. The technocrat seems benign, crucially important, and above the fray.  Or is he?

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski,
President and CIO
http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules