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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Hits 19th Record in 37 Sessions

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Nov 25, 2009 - 06:52 AM GMT

By: Adrian_Ash


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTHE PRICE OF GOLD broke fresh record highs vs. the Dollar for the 19th session since Oct. 6th early Wednesday in London, trading above $1180 per ounce as the US currency fell with government bonds.

World stock markets reversed yesterday's drop to approach new 14-month highs.

The gold price in Euros dipped 0.6% to €783 an ounce, but gold rose to fresh record highs against the Chinese Yuan, British Pound, Swiss Franc and Indian Rupee.

"Central-bank buying has been one of the main factors of this recent gold rally," agreed three banking analysts interviewed separately by Bloomberg News this morning.

India's Financial Chronicle today claimed the Reserve Bank was "open" to extending its 200-tonne purchase of IMF gold from October. But when asked, India's central-bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao said only "No comment" to reporters.

"There is far more to this [surge] than just normal gold investment demand," writes Lawrence Williams at MineWeb. "Indeed the previous big drivers in the form of gold ETFs no longer seem responsible for the big price upturns.

"It is metal purchases which seem to be the root cause – but who is it who is buying?"

This week marks the fifth anniversary of the SPDR Gold Shares trust (GLD), with assets under management now totaling a record $40 billion.

By volume, however, the world's largest securitized gold trust now holds 1126 tonnes of metal – below this spring's all-time peak, and a rise of only 5.7% since the current price-surge began on Sept. 1st.

Over in the physical retail market, "[There are] signs of a looming shortage of physical metals," claims Patrick Heller at coin-dealer website Numismaster, with "just about all US bullion wholesalers unable to accept orders for the South Africa Krugerrand.

"My own company had to discontinue accepting new orders until we could lock in a supply."

The US Mint told wholesale dealers last week that it will continue to issue 2009-dated gold coins until the end of December, rather than finishing sooner as in previous years.

But new 2010-dated production won't begin until January, however, meaning "the Mint will now face this higher seasonal demand and the continuing high investor demand with less of a running start than usual," says collector David Harper, also at Numismaster.

US crude oil futures meantime bounced higher from $76 per barrel early Wednesday – rising almost 69% from this time last year – while the Dollar fell to its worst level against the Euro since July 2008, trading below $1.50 to the single currency.

The Aussie Dollar rose towards 15-month highs after Australia's central bank declared the economy to be entering a new "upswing".

Silver traded wholesale in 1000-ounce bars also held near its best level since July 2008, recording a London Fix of $18.63.

"We believe that risk has played an important role in the current commodities price rally," say Walter de Wet and Manqoba Madinane at South Africa's Standard Bank, pointing to the VIX index of volatility in US stock-market options.

"Often used as a proxy for risk appetite," the VIX has fallen towards levels "last seen before risk aversion exploded in August 2008" they note.

"Speculative positions are very high for many commodities...[raising] the risk of deep price corrections. However, due to the massive amounts of liquidity, speculative positions are sustainable for as long as monetary policy remains accommodative.

"Global liquidity remains ample," agrees Standard Chartered Bank in a new report today, "helping to boost the whole commodities complex and keeping the US Dollar under downward pressure.

"Gold is well positioned, given its strong inverse relationship with the Dollar, central bank buying, and continued investor inflows."

Standard Chartered sees gold prices as "likely to consolidate" in the first half of 2010, with renewed appreciation in the second half "as the USD weakens once more."

Shorter-term, and ahead of tomorrow's Thanksgiving Holiday in the United States, "Any price dips [in gold] are likely to be short-lived," said one London dealer in a note.

"The gold price is on its way to the minor psychological 1200 level and the 2008/09 uptrend channel resistance line at 1239," says the latest Bullion Weekly from Commerzbank analyst Axel Rudolph.

"It may pause for a day or two...The daily RSI [relative strength index] is at extremely overbought levels not seen since September 2007."

Gold rose 20% against the world's major currencies in the four months following that extreme "over-bought" position.

By Adrian Ash

Gold price chart, no delay | Free Report: 5 Myths of the Gold Market
Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and a regular contributor to MoneyWeek magazine, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at , giving you direct access to investment gold, vaulted in Zurich , on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2009

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

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