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Rydex Stock Market Timers Indicator Signaling Market Top

Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment Dec 16, 2009 - 08:26 AM GMT

By: Guy_Lerner

Stock-Markets

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds versus the amount of assets in the leveraged and bearish funds. This data is hidden, but the ratio of bull to bear, which is depicted by the indicator in the lower panel, is 2 to 1. Since July, 2009, every time this ratio got above 2, it marked a short term top in the S&P500. These are noted by the maroon colored vertical bars.


Figure 1. S&P500/ Rydex Leveraged Bull v. Leveraged Bear/ daily

Figure 2 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund in the lower panel. The current value is the lowest value since the rally began in March, 2009. While all of this is short term noise, it is absolutely amazing that there would be this much commitment to the market after a 60% plus run in the S&P500.

Figure 2. S&P500 v. Rydex Money Market/ daily

By Guy Lerner

    http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

    Guy M. Lerner, MD is the founder of ARL Advisers, LLC and managing partner of ARL Investment Partners, L.P. Dr. Lerner utilizes a research driven approach to determine those factors which lead to sustainable moves in the markets. He has developed many proprietary tools and trading models in his quest to outperform. Over the past four years, Lerner has shared his innovative approach with the readers of RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com as a featured columnist. He has been a regular guest on the Money Man Radio Show, DEX-TV, routinely published in the some of the most widely-read financial publications and has been a marquee speaker at financial seminars around the world.

    © 2009 Copyright Guy Lerner - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

    Guy Lerner Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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