Gold Jumps on Strong Demand Indicating Money-Velocity and Inflation
Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Feb 02, 2010 - 07:36 AMBy: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD added to yesterday's 2.3% jump to reach 8-session highs Tuesday morning in London, while world stock markets also pushed higher and the US Dollar dipped from a 6-month high on the currency market.
Wholesale gold dealers noted "strong physical demand" in Asia, with "weak shorts" adding to the buying pressure, forced to close their bearish positions at rising prices.
"As the money supply increases, the gold price rises," says new analysis from global gold-marketing group the World Gold Council. "This effect has a lag of about 6 months."
The WGC's latest research also finds that gold prices offer a good indicator for the future velocity of money – the rate at which money changes hands as it is spent – particularly in the United States.
Gold investors "are [therefore] justified in their concern that quantitative easing policies...will eventually lead to an increase in the velocity of money and of inflation," concludes the WGC's analyst, Juan Carlos Artigas.
Australia's central bank today surprised the currency market by keeping its overnight interest rate on hold at 3.75% after three consecutive hikes.
Germany reported weaker-than-expected retail sales growth for Dec., but Swiss consumer sentiment, UK construction activity, and deflation in European factory-gate prices were all "less bad" than forecast.
US Treasury secretary Tim Geithner will today present the White House's record 2011 budget – one-third financed by a new record deficit – to the Senate Finance Committee.
"Gold and silver investment demand has waned since the end of 2009," notes BNP Paribas analyst Anne-Laure Tremblay, adding that "Most gold ETFs saw net outflows in January."
"As the flux of investors liquidating their positions diminishes, gold ought to eventually push higher," says a note from MKS Finance, a division of the Swiss refining group.
Over the two weeks ending Tues 26 Jan., notes London's VM Group, the "net long" position held by speculative players in US gold futures has shown "the largest two-week decline since the height of the financial crisis in October 2008."
Silver investment positions in New York futures also "fell heavily" last week, says VM in its latest Precious Metals Investment Weekly for Fortis Nederland Bank, showing "the largest weekly decline since August 2008."
Gold investment positions in New York derivatives reached all-time record levels late last year, peaking with what analysts called "speculative excess" above 1020 tonnes-equivalent in gold futures and options.
"The next major [price] resistance is seen at $1120," says a technical note from market makers Scotia Mocatta.
"Silver should be challenged by December's dual lows at $16.75," says another dealer.
"One indication of gold's underlying strength is its recent good performance in non-US Dollar currencies," adds James Steel at HSBC, the London-based bank.
The gold price in British Pounds today broke above £700 an ounce for the first time in 15 sessions.
Eurozone investors looking to buy gold saw the price rise within 5¢ of €800 on Tuesday morning – just 1.6% below Dec.'s all-time high.
"The Eurozone is riddled with structural problems," says Standard Bank's forex strategist Steven Barrow, pointing to "huge budgetary and current account discrepancies that imply a degree of economic hibernation in countries like Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Ireland.
"Even the best solution to this crisis...is still one in which the market continues to attach a significant default premium to Eurozone bond markets."
Gold priced in US Dollars briefly touched $1115 an ounce early in London on Tuesday, rising more than $33 from Monday morning and gaining 3.7% from last week's three-month low.
Since Sept. 2007, when the Euro first crossed through $1.40 to the Dollar – the level it slipped below last week – the gold price has risen by some 50% against both currencies.
By Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com
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Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and a regular contributor to MoneyWeek magazine, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at www.BullionVault.com , giving you direct access to investment gold, vaulted in Zurich , on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.
(c) BullionVault 2010
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