Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
JOHNSON AND JOHNSON - JNJ for Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 17th Aug 19
Negative Bond Market Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Stock Market Leadership - 17th Aug 19
Is Stock Market About to Crash? Three Charts That Suggest It’s Possible - 17th Aug 19
It’s Time For Colombia To Dump The Peso - 17th Aug 19
Gold & Silver Stand Strong amid Stock Volatility & Falling Rates - 16th Aug 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Fundamentals - 16th Aug 19
Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next? - 16th Aug 19
When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! - 16th Aug 19
Dark days are closing in on Apple - 16th Aug 19
Precious Metals Gone Wild! Reaching Initial Targets – Now What’s Next - 16th Aug 19
US Government Is Beholden To The Fed; And Vice-Versa - 15th Aug 19
GBP vs USD Forex Pair Swings Into Focus Amid Brexit Chaos - 15th Aug 19
US Negative Interest Rates Go Mainstream - With Some Glaring Omissions - 15th Aug 19
GOLD BULL RUN TREND ANALYSIS - 15th Aug 19
US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% - 15th Aug 19
A Level Exam Results School Live Reaction Shock 2019! - 15th Aug 19
It's Time to Get Serious about Silver - 15th Aug 19
The EagleFX Beginners Guide – Financial Markets - 15th Aug 19
Central Banks Move To Keep The Global Markets Party Rolling – Part III - 14th Aug 19
You Have to Buy Bonds Even When Interest Rates Are Low - 14th Aug 19
Gold Near Term Risk is Increasing - 14th Aug 19
Installment Loans vs Personal Bank Loans - 14th Aug 19
ROCHE - RHHBY Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 14th Aug 19
Gold Bulls Must Love the Hong Kong Protests - 14th Aug 19
Gold, Markets and Invasive Species - 14th Aug 19
Cannabis Stocks With Millennial Appeal - 14th Aug 19
August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Stock Market Event Only A Few Days Away - 13th Aug 19
This is the real move in gold and silver… it’s going to be multiyear - 13th Aug 19
Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again - 13th Aug 19
US Dollar Finally the Achillles Heel - 13th Aug 19
Financial Success Formula Failure - 13th Aug 19
How to Test Your Car Alternator with a Multimeter - 13th Aug 19
London Under Attack! Victoria Embankment Gardens Statues and Monuments - 13th Aug 19
More Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 12th Aug 19
Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling Onward - 12th Aug 19
All Eyes On Copper - 12th Aug 19
History of Yield Curve Inversions and Gold - 12th Aug 19
Precious Metals Soar on Falling Yields, Currency Turmoil - 12th Aug 19
Why GraphQL? The Benefits Explained - 12th Aug 19
Is the Stock Market Making a V-shaped Recovery? - 11th Aug 19
Precious Metals and Stocks VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan” - 11th Aug 19
Social Media Civil War - 11th Aug 19
Gold and the Bond Yield Continuum - 11th Aug 19
Traders: Which Markets Should You Trade? - 11th Aug 19
US Corporate Debt Is at Risk of a Flash Crash - 10th Aug 19
EURODOLLAR futures above 2016 highs: FED to cut over 100 bps quickly - 10th Aug 19
Market’s flight-to-safety: Should You Buy Stocks Now? - 10th Aug 19
The Cold, Hard Math Tells Netflix Stock Could Crash 70% - 10th Aug 19
Our Custom Index Charts Suggest Stock Markets Are In For A Wild Ride - 9th Aug 19
Bitcoin Price Triggers Ahead - 9th Aug 19
Walmart Is Coming for Amazon - 9th Aug 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

One of the World's Biggest Oil Producers Is Going Bust

Commodities / Crude Oil Apr 11, 2010 - 11:57 AM GMT

By: DailyWealth

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"What this means is that we require, in one way or another, the collaboration of other companies on an international level precisely in order to recuperate our levels of production."

From time to time, my job as a resource stock analyst means I get to act as "BS interpreter."


This quote above, uttered by Mexican Energy Minister Georgina Kessel at an international conference a few weeks ago, is a mouthful of government gobbledygook. Here's what she's actually saying... and what it means for your resource portfolio...

Main Ad
Most Americans don't realize it, but Mexico is a major player in global oil production. According to the Energy Information Agency, it was the seventh largest oil-producing country in 2008. Mexico is the U.S.'s second-largest source of imported oil, behind Canada.

You read that correctly: We import more oil from Mexico than we do Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, or any other Middle Eastern country. You don't read about it much in the papers, but Mexico is a critical supplier to American drivers.

Now, Mexican oil officials like Georgina Kessel have a problem... one the entire world has: There are no easy barrels left.

You see, in the oil business, there are "easy barrels," like the kind discovered in Mexico, Texas, and Saudi Arabia decades ago. These easy barrels burst from the earth when you puncture a highly pressurized oil field with a drill pipe. These are the barrels you see in movies and cartoons.

There are also "hard barrels," like the kind locked inside oil sands. They require enormous amounts of digging and processing in order to become the "light, sweet" crude that we turn into gasoline.

Another example of a "hard barrel" is one located hundreds of miles out into (and miles under) the ocean. This requires hundreds of millions of dollars in ships, advanced drilling technology, and undersea pipelines.

The world has plenty of hard barrels in reserve. Brazilian oil major Petrobras has discovered several "supergiant" fields (greater than 1 billion barrels) off the coast of Brazil. Canada and Venezuela have extraordinary amounts of oil trapped in tar sands. The U.S. has over a trillion barrels locked in shale formations out West. And since 2004, 63 new fields have been discovered in the Gulf of Mexico – 16 of those in water at least a mile deep.

It takes billions of dollars in infrastructure spending to develop these difficult fields. Hardly the easy oil of Mexico's past.

Mexico's legendary Cantarell field – discovered in 1976 and named for the fisherman who found it – is the sixth largest oil field on Earth. And it was once the second largest producing field in the world, after the massive Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.

Cantarell was a once-in-a-lifetime discovery... so for years, Mexican officials could pretend they were oil experts. The field was so ridiculously productive, they could afford to nationalize the industry, steal the company blind, and pump the oil with abandon.

Production peaked in 2004 at 2.1 million barrels per day, which accounted for 64% of total oil production at Mexico's state-owned oil company, Pemex. But years and years of mistreating the golden goose has left its world-class oilfield in a sorry state of underproduction. Oil fields are like children... you have to take care of them and invest in their future.

The problem is that the government has done a terrible job of "upkeep."

Production at Cantarell plummeted 30% in 2008. It produced less than 780,000 barrels per day in 2009. And Pemex's total oil production fell 21% from 3.3 million barrels per day in 2004 to just 2.6 million barrels per day today.

Worse yet, thanks to decades of complacency, Pemex can't find more oil. In 2007, it managed to replace just 50% of its production. In 2008, it replaced just 70%. The new reserves it does find come from much smaller fields. The company is replacing million-barrel-per-day fields with 150,000-barrel-per-day fields.

Mexico – for years a major oil exporter – could become an oil importer within a decade. This is a disaster for the Mexican economy. Pemex employs over 100,000 people and supplies the Mexican government with around 40% of its revenue... and its oil revenue is wilting away.

Now that Cantarell isn't blasting out oil, industry insiders are seeing exactly how incompetent Pemex is. It's the General Motors of the oil world... If it weren't such an important exporter, it would be a joke.

What Mexico and Georgina Kessel are finally doing is admitting they need outside expertise in righting their ship. Take out the flowery government speak from Georgina's quote and you get:

"We are running out of oil. We underinvested in our infrastructure in favor of huge social programs. We've mismanaged our fields so badly that we need immediate help to find and pump more oil."

This is from a major player in the global oil export market.

For investors, this sort of comment is further reason to own oil and oil-service stocks for the long term. Major producers used to easy barrels – like Mexico, Venezuela, and Iran – are experiencing production declines... so much so that they will pull their exports from the market, sending prices higher. I wouldn't' be surprised to see oil over $200 a barrel in five years (especially if our spendthrift government keeps debasing the paper currency we use to price oil).

This will make "hard barrels" – like the kind in Canada's tar sands or deep offshore – much more valuable... But only the expensive and high-tech expertise that skilled oil-service companies provide can unlock that value.

Stay long oil... and stay long oil services.

Good investing,

Matt Badiali

http://www.dailywealth.com

The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2010 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Daily Wealth Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules