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5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

UK Budget 2010 Analysis, Consumers, Public Sector and Benefit Claimers to Carry the Weight

Economics / UK Tax & Budget Jun 22, 2010 - 08:39 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGeorge Osbourne delivered his first budget flanked by Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander on either side, and clearing the uncertainty of the past 6 months which allows business's and individuals to make long-term decisions. The primary objective of the emergency budget is to address the unsustainable £156 billion annual budget deficit that risks bankrupting Britain, in this respect the budget appears to have succeeded in projecting that over the term of the parliament this deficit will be reduced to £20 billion per year.


In total the budget took £40 billion out of the economy or 3% of GDP by means of £8 billion of net tax rises and £32 billion of spending cuts.

VAT Rise to 20%

VAT will rise from 17.5% to 20% effective from 4th of Jan 2011, I had forecast for it to come in on the 1st of Jan 2011. VAT will raise approx £13 billion. The VAT hike will result in an inflation spike as I have been warning off for the past few months (George Osbourne's Wage Inflation Price Spiral VAT Increase ). Now it is clear that the VAT inflation spike will start in January 2011 inflation data.

It was only a couple of months ago that the Lib Dem Leader and Coalition partner Nick Clegg was warning of the Tory VAT bombshell.

Spending cuts of 25% on non ring fenced budgets

The Government intends to target 25% of spending cuts across non ring fenced spending departments to culminate in an annual spending cut of £32 billion. However spending cuts of 25% are just not possible in my opinion, 15% is achievable but 25% ? This means that there exits an approx £13 billion annual hole in the governments plans or about £50 billion over the 4 years from 1st April 2011, which means higher borrowing and deficits than forecast, which implies that there could be further tax rises in future budgets. At least 500,000 public sector jobs will go and possibly as many as 700,000, the problem here is the culture and ethos of public sector workers means that most are unemployable in the far more flexible private sector unless they change their mindset.

Public Sector Pay Freeze

Public sector salaries of above £21,000 per annum will be frozen for the next 2 years, originally it had been assumed that pay from £18k would be frozen.

Public Sector Pensions Liabilities

Whilst the press focuses on the public sector net debt of £850 billion, however the bigger elephant in the room is the Public Sector gold plated pensions liability of more than £1 trillion that already requires tax payers to fill the gap of near £10 billion per year of that between contributions and benefits that is destined to continue mushrooming ever higher that ultimately risks bankrupting Britain. The bottom line is that the public sector workers contribute 50% less than the pensions provisions made availabel to them, the gap being left for future tax payers to fill. The chancellor announced that John Hutton would provide an interim report on the public sector pensions crisis by September 2010.

Indexation Switch from RPI to CPI

The new government is using a slight of hand to to switch from the higher RPI inflation index (5.3%) to the lower CPI inflation index (3.4%) in across the board indexation of spending commitments, tax and benefit measures to save an approx £6 billion per year. However this is just another effect of masking the real rate of inflation from the public which the RPI at 5.3% more accurately reflects.

Capital Gains Tax

CGT will rise for higher rate payers from 18% to 28%, and remain at 18% for basic rate tax payers. There were fears of CGT rising to 40% or 50%, which would hit long-term investment as well as reduce market transactions and hence reduce tax revenues.

Corporation Tax Cuts

Corporation tax will be cut by 1% per year for the next 4 years from 28% to 24%. Small companies will see their tax rate cut from 22% to 20%. The negative is that capital allowances are being cut from £100k to £25k.

Bank Levy

The bank levy will raise £2 billion per year. The banks have been hit less than expected as a tax of £5 billion had been anticipated.

Tax Credits

The Tax credits payments ceiling will be cut from families with earnings of £50,000 to £40,000, which will put families in this bracket at least £520 per year worse off.

Basic State Pension to Rise in Line with Earnings

The state pension will now rise in line with earnings or inflation, which ever is higher, or by a minimum of 2.5% per annum.

Housing Benefit Capped at £400 per Week

Housing benefit is one of the most abused benefits of the welfare system that effectively allows people to choose not to work and live off the state in perpetuity, a cap at £400 per week still means that this single benefit can reward those that choose not to work to the tune of £20,800 a year towards housing costs which is more than the average gross salary of most of the people outside of London. The Government should have gone much further in lowering the maximum amount of Housing Benefit to reduce the amount of fraud that takes place that runs in the several billions each year.

Child Benefit Frozen

Child benefit will be frozen at current levels for the next 3 years. There had been fears of mean testing.

Disability Benefit

A number of Labour government reports over the years had concluded that as many as 1/3rd of Disability Claimants are fraudulent, though Labour never did anything about this. The new government is to implement medical assessment from 2013 to address this mega-fraud.

Annual Income Tax Free Allowance Raised

The income tax allowance has been raised by £1,000 to £7,475 to take some 800,000 people out of the tax system and as part of the objective to work towards the Lib Dem goal of a £10,000 annual tax free allowance.

Comments and Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20512.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Florence O'Donnell
02 Aug 10, 12:19
UK budget

has the budget had any effect on the UK already and what is the predicted effects?


Nadeem_Walayat
02 Aug 10, 12:49
uk budget economy

My next in-depth analysis within the next 2 days will seek to address this Issue.


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