Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Short-Term Not Bad... Mid- to Long-Term Not Great... Goldman Settles... Gulf Capped... Google Smoked....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jul 16, 2010 - 03:14 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

There is no denying that this market, and more importantly, this economy, is in some very big trouble. The fundamentals are in terrible shape. Two reports on manufacturing (NY State and Philadelphia) this morning were worse than expected. Actually, not just worse, unbelievably worse. Just fell off a cliff is the best way to put it. No matter how anyone wants to spin things, they are in terrible shape.


So why, you ask, didn't the stock market fall apart? Simple. Sentiment! Just too many bears. We have an inverted bull-bear ratio, and this reality is holding the market up for the short-term. However, one has to wonder how long even sentiment can hold things up if this type of economic reporting continues showing the future not looking very bright. I'm wondering what the final report will be that tips the market back lower. I'm hoping sentiment holds things up no matter what gets reported, but you really do have to wonder.

So, sentiment tells me the short-term has some possibilities. I wouldn't get too excited. The S&P 500 needs to convincingly clear 1094. Then it has a shot at 1131, the most recent high. However, getting back to 1220, S&P 500 seems remote at best. I just don't think that has much of a chance of taking place this year if these reports on the economy continue to flow in. I would lose those high expectations for this market. We're not going anywhere near that high if things don't turn around soon. Another month of this type of manufacturing reports and we'll be looking at a double dip recession with negative figures.

The mid-term and long-term look bad, to be blunt. It seems that earnings for this quarter are decent, but no one believes the next cycle looks promising. If that opinion holds up, and then becomes reality, look out. Don't get in the way. The market really is at cross roads as is the economy's future. If Bernanke is tipping his hand, he's quietly warning us something bad is coming or he wouldn't have talked about recovery in five to six years. He clearly saw the contraction reports coming that we heard from today, and thus his warning. Unfortunately, if things don't turn soon, we're headed for a rough few years ahead in the market, so be prepared for that possibility.

After hours, Goldman Sachs (GS) did their usual get-away-with-murder routine by settling with the SEC. Nothing bad happened to anyone, and their reward for being bad guys is to have their stock go from 139 to 152. Ah yes, nothing like being above it all and walking on water. Nothing out of the ordinary here. Be crooks. Get caught. Nothing happens. Business as usual at Goldman. This is good news, somehow, for the market, but bad news from Google Inc. (GOOG) on their earnings, and has the future washing out to flat.

Goldman had been under pressure recently, but now all is well. This can only be good for the financials, one would think, for the short-term. I think we've all had it with these guys and girls, but the market caters to their every need and desire. They just can't do enough bad things to have anything bad happen to them. Disgusting, but the way it is, and likely always will be. After all, if they're hurt, the market is hurt. If the market is hurt, so are political careers. Goldman can do no wrong. Not in the past. Not now. Not ever. Get used to it folks.

Google reported lower than expected earnings, and although the stock is down well over two hundred points off their highs, they are down another 20 after hours. Things have hit the wall there. They are hitting the futures a bit on the tech side, but nothing too bad. It would have been worse if not for the Goldman debacle.

As I warned, many nights will be filled with bad earnings, and tomorrow morning things get very interesting as General Electric Co. (GE), Bank of America Corporation (BAC), and Citigroup, Inc. (C) report earnings before the market opens for business. Those reports will have a huge effect on the financials, and the market in general. So far the earnings season hasn't been very good with respect to guidance. In addition, we have news from BP Exploration plc (BP) telling us the gulf spill has finally been capped. Shameful, but let's just be thankful that the bleeding has stopped, and now we get to clean it all up.

Nothing is going to be easy here folks. Cash is a wonderful position, like it or not. Nothing aggressive as the two big forces collide. Sentiment versus poor economic news. Please go slow and easy with your trading.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 21-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2010 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in