Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Tesla Robo Taxis are Coming THIS YEAR! - 16th June 24
Will NVDA Crash the Market? - 16th June 24
Inflation Is Dead! Or Is It? - 16th June 24
Investors Are Forever Blowing Bubbles - 16th June 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 8th June 24
S&P 494 Stocks Then & Now - 8th June 24
As Stocks Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market - 8th June 24
Gold, Silver and Crypto | How Charts Look Before US Dollar Meltdown - 8th June 24
Gold & Silver Get Slammed on Positive Economic Reports - 8th June 24
Gold Summer Doldrums - 8th June 24
S&P USD Correction - 7th June 24
Israel's Smoke and Mirrors Fake War on Gaza - 7th June 24
US Banking Crisis 2024 That No One Is Paying Attention To - 7th June 24
The Fed Leads and the Market Follows? It's a Big Fat MYTH - 7th June 24
How Much Gold Is There In the World? - 7th June 24
Is There a Financial Crisis Bubbling Under the Surface? - 7th June 24
Bitcoin Trend Forecast, Crypto's Exit Strategy - 31st May 24
Zimbabwe Officials Already Looking to Inflate New Gold-Backed Currency - 31st May 24
India Silver Imports Have Already Topped 2023 Total - 31st May 24
Gold Has Done Its Job – Isn’t That Enough? - 31st May 24
Gold Stocks Catching Up - 31st May 24
Time to take the RED Pill - 28th May 24
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet - 28th May 24
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal - 28th May 24
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? - 28th May 24
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 7th Oct 07- Technically Precious with Merv

Commodities / Gold & Silver Oct 07, 2007 - 04:47 PM GMT

By: Merv_Burak


We had a little scare earlier in the week but it may be all over now -- or is it? Will world events control the fortunes of gold or will it be the US $? Push/pull, whatever.

Before getting into my weekly precious metals commentary I thought I'd bring to your attention a new blog that was launched this past week. Over the past year or two I have had many readers asking questions about uranium stocks. Many have suggested that I should include a uranium commentary with these commentaries. This led to the creation of a blog that is dedicated to discussing daily and weekly activities of uranium stocks.

The blog is located at and I invite all to check it out. It is a purely technical blog (no fundamental information) so may not be for everyone but if you don't check it out you'll never know if it is for you or not. For those that like fundamentals I have provided links to some excellent sites. I'm new to this blogging game and the blog is still a work in progress so be kind.


There was nothing very spectacular happening from the long term perspective over the past week so I didn't thing a chart was necessary this week. However, looking at a chart of gold one is struck by the fact that, having moved into new bull market highs gold just seemed to get stuck. After a break into new highs one would expect explosive upside action. This has not occurred and is a concern for the validity of the upside break. As always, go with the trend in motion BUT keep this caution in mind and be prepared for a reversal. It is not an unknown practice for professionals to boost the price to create interest while they then get out under the radar screen of such activity.

For a quick rundown, Gold continues to trade above its positive moving average line with a momentum indicator that is inside its positive zone. On a daily chart this long term momentum has been trapped in a lateral “box” since June of last year with the support at the 50% level and resistance at the 57% level. We are at 56% on Friday. The long term remains BULLISH with the cautionary note previously indicated.


The reaction this past week seemed to have halted on top of the two month up trend line. So far, so good. The price activity has been all above the intermediate term positive moving average line. Momentum continues positive but there is a hint of a topping process, not serious yet but a hint. With both the price and momentum moving comfortably above their previous April highs all looks to be rosy. However, volume is a bummer. The volume indicator is nowhere near its April high and has taken a lateral motion, more near its low. The intermediate term can still be considered as BULLISH but with that volume action the longevity of this bullishness may be a concern. Stay with the trend but watch should the price break below the trend line.


Both the short term momentum and moving average have remained positive so we are still technically in a short term bullish trend. However, the actions on Tuesday and Wednesday did take a lot out of the bullishness. With a well positioned up trend line so close I would normally wait for it to be broken before reversing direction. However, should the price move lower again in all likelihood the very short term moving average will cross below the short term average and this would give you the signal that the trend has changed. Consider it a trend change whichever of the two occur first. As far as the next couple of days are concerned, the immediate term direction is to the up side so consider it to continue.

North American Gold Indices

Looking over the five North American major Indices that I review in this section each week I see that none of them has REALLY broken into new highs, at least none with any gusto. They just seem to be sitting there at the high waiting for something to give them that extra kick. I am always cautious when a stock or Index breaks into new highs but doesn't go anywhere. A move into new highs, when representing enthusiasm, should explode on the up side or at least make a good run for a few days leaving the previous high some distance below. This is not happening with the major Indices or with gold itself. Until these Indices give more evidence that they do in fact want to continue moving higher one must step back and watch and wait.

The Index shown this week is the Dow Jones Precious Metals Index. What I've been talking about here can be easily seen on this chart. The Index broke through into new highs but hasn't gone anywhere.

One explanation could be that the Index had a good swift run-up to this point and needs to take a rest before continuing. That sounds good and we'll keep it in mind but also be prepared for some down side action.


It's been a so-so week for the various Merv's Indices. The Composite Index of Precious Metals Indices closed almost neutral on the week (actually up by 0.002%). As the Index continues near its all time high the long term momentum continues to show weakness and has not yet confirmed the recent Index high. A battle seems to be raging, bull or bear which will it be?


The average weekly performance of the 160 stocks in the universe was a paltry 0.1% on the up side. Not worth opening up the Champagne . This neutral week is further shown by the number of advancing and declining stocks. They were almost 50/50. There were 74 advancing stocks (46%) and 78 declining stocks (49%). In keeping with a neutral or quiet market there were no stocks that made it into the 30% weekly move category, showing extreme speculation to be no where in sight. It's difficult to say if we are in a topping phase or if the stocks are just taking a rest after a few weeks of upside action. Time will tell.

Unlike the majors this Index moved into new high territory earlier in the year. The July/Aug decline was hard on the Index and it has not yet recovered from it. It is nowhere near its previous highs and is showing weakness. However, having said that, the rally from the Aug low has been quite good as far as it goes. The trends have turned around and the Index is above both its intermediate and long term moving average lines and both lines are heading higher. Momentum in both cases is positive and pointing higher. From this I can only remain BULLISH on both the long and intermediate term.


This is probably the only place you will find gold Indices that show what the different quality of stocks are doing, i.e. the high quality, the second tier and the gambling variety. From this you get a better idea if you should be thinking investing or gambling or just staying out.

All three Indices closed higher on the week but with gains of 0.4% to 1.7% it was no big deal. The Qual-Gold Index has just inched into new all time highs while the Spec-Gold and Gamb-Gold are still some distance from their previous highs. The Qual-Gold Index is acting very much like the majors, reaching new highs while the more speculative stocks are not moving as one would hope. The recent rally was primarily a “quality” rally. When quality moves but not the speculatives that is an indication of a market that is not yet sure of its footing. It's when the speculative stocks take hold you then know that the primary sentiment is to the up side.

Looking at the charts of these three Indices one gets a similar picture with each. All are tracking above their intermediate and long term moving average lines and all of the lines are pointing upward. Intermediate and long term momentum indicators for all three Indices are in their positive zones and heading higher. For now I can only be BULLISH on the long and intermediate term for all three Indices.


For some time now silver has been the weak member of the precious metals family, even if you put in Palladium and Platinum into the picture. With a loss of 3.0% on the week silver far out did gold, which had only a 0.4% loss. More importantly, one can see the volume indicator showing weakness as the price rose. The flat On-Balance Volume suggested that there were just as many traders during the down days as during the up days. Not a sign of bullishness. We are still far away from new high territory here. Even the high of last Feb has not yet been breached. For now silver is not the place to be looking for terrific gains.


Despite the down week for silver, the Spec-Silver Index had a plus week. The Qual-Silver had a down week. Neither were of much consequence. Except for the long term Spec-Index moving average, all of the other indicators are in their positive readings, similar to the gold Indices. The long term Spec-Silver moving average is still pointing lower and the Index itself is below the moving average line. I am BULLISH on the long and intermediate term Qual-Silver Index and the intermediate term Spec-Silver Index. The long term Spec-Silver rating can best be rated as – NEUTRAL, one level above a full bear due to the positive momentum.

Merv's Precious Metals Indices Table

That's it for another week. Again, I invite all to take a look at the new uranium blog at .

By Merv Burak, CMT
Hudson Aero/Systems Inc.
Technical Information Group
for Merv's Precious Metals Central


During the day Merv practices his engineering profession as a Consulting Aerospace Engineer. Once the sun goes down and night descends upon the earth Merv dons his other hat as a Chartered Market Technician ( CMT ) and tries to decipher what's going on in the securities markets. As an underground surveyor in the gold mines of Canada 's Northwest Territories in his youth, Merv has a soft spot for the gold industry and has developed several Gold Indices reflecting different aspects of the industry. As a basically lazy individual Merv's driving focus is to KEEP IT SIMPLE .

To find out more about Merv's various Gold Indices and component stocks, please visit and click on Merv's Precious Metals Central . There you will find samples of the Indices and their component stocks plus other publications of interest to gold investors. While at the web site please take the time to check out the Energy Central site and the various Merv's Energy Tables for the most comprehensive survey of energy stocks on the internet. Before you invest, Always check your market timing with a Qualified Professional Market Technician

Merv Burak Archive

© 2005-2022 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in