Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Greatest Stock Market Crash Of Your Life Is Just Ahead… – Warns Harry Dent - GoldCore
2.Budget 2016: Borrowing, Lifetime ISA, House Prices, Economy, Syria, Brexit and Stocks - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Intermediate Top - Clive_Maund
4.Brussels Terror Attacks, Death of the European Union, BrExit Wake up Call - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Stock Market Maybe This Time is Different? - Tony_Caldaro
6.UK House Asking Prices Break Above £300k! Housing Market Paralysis - Nadeem_Walayat
7.A Big Reason Why Silver Price Is Set To Soar - Hubert_Moolman
8.The Financial Crisis Has Just Begun; Is The American Dream Is Over? - Chris_Vermeulen
9.Gold Stocks Spring Rally - Zeal_LLC
10.GLX, GLDX, Baby Gold Bull Market Stillborn? - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
When the Truth is Found to be Lies, Confidence in Currency Dies - 2nd May 16
How Brexit Could Help All of Europe - 2nd May 16
US House Prices Outpacing Official Inflation Rate, Household Income - 2nd May 16
USD Still Declining... - 2nd May 16
Gold & Silver Rally Huge as Central Bankers & Analysts Flub - 2nd May 16
Stock Market Bounce Day - 2nd May 16
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Two-Month Long Rally - Will It Continue? - 2nd May 16
Stock Market Correction Underway "Upside Objective Reached" - 2nd May 16
USD, Yen and an ‘Inflation Trade’ Update - 2nd May 16
Gold Commitments of Traders and More - 1st May 16
The Magic of Gold Ratio Charts - 1st May 16
Consensus Forming: China Heading Back Into Financial Crisis - 30th Apr 16
The Next Technical Price Targets for Gold & Silver - 30th Apr 16
Stock Market Downtrend Should be Underway - 30th Apr 16
Gold And Silver – A Clarion Alarm Call For All Paper Assets - 30th Apr 16
US Economic Statistics LIES, LIES AND OMG, MORE LIES - 30th Apr 16
Stock Market Strong Elliott Wave Relationship is Developing - 29th Apr 16
Fed's Kaplan: Brexit to Factor in US June Interest Rate Decision - 29th Apr 16
Silver Miners Strong in Grim Q4 - 29th Apr 16
Is Silver a better bet than Gold in the Near Future? - 29th Apr 16
How to Use the CoT Report in Gold Investing? - 29th Apr 16
Sri Lanka is Intriguing: Areas to Consider for Value Investing - 29th Apr 16
Gold “Chart of The Decade” – Maths Suggest $10,000 Per Ounce Says Rickards - 29th Apr 16
Are We or Are We Not in a New Gold Bull Market? - 29th Apr 16
Silver: The “Five Year Plan” and the Great Leap Forward - 28th Apr 16
Michael Hudson: The Wall Street Economy Has Taken Over The Economy and Is Draining It! - 28th Apr 16
AUD/USD - Trend Reversal or Just a Bigger Pullback? - 28th Apr 16
A Gold Revaluation Could Transform Your Financial Status - Overnight - 28th Apr 16
Monetary Policies Misunderstood - 28th Apr 16
Gold Bullion vs Gold Miners - 28th Apr 16
OECD Suggests BrExit Would Cut Net Migration by 1.2 Million by 2030 - 28th Apr 16
MP Naz Shah Punished for Tweets Made During Israel's Genocide of Gaza Palestinian People - 28th Apr 16
Global Recession in 2016 and Beyond - The Obvious Evidence - 27th Apr 16
Why Gold Bugs Need to Stop Listening to The Fear Mongers and Start Thinking for a Change - 27th Apr 16
BlackRock’s Fink: Fed to Raise Interest Rates by Quarter Point ‘at Best’ - 27th Apr 16
Gold More Productive Than Cash?! - 27th Apr 16
Donald Trump Will Fire Janet Yellen and Be Trapped - 27th Apr 16
Money Saving Gardening by Propagating Roses From Cuttings - Propagating Rose Plants Over 2.5 Years - 27th Apr 16
Facebook Censors Pro Trump and Negative Hillary News - 27th Apr 16
This is the Era of the Democrats and Your Taxes are Going Up - 27th Apr 16
Long Awaited Gold Price Breakout - 26th Apr 16
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? - 26th Apr 16
Madness in the Crimex Gold and Silver Trading Pits - 26th Apr 16
Britain's Prospects: GBP and BREXIT - MAP Wave Analysis - 26th Apr 16
CRB, Gold, Oil, Cotton, Coffee - 7 Must See Commodities Charts - 26th Apr 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Catching a Falling Financial Knife

Will Oil Inflation Destroy America Or Will 2011 Be The Year of The Rabbit?

Commodities / Crude Oil Dec 14, 2010 - 01:20 PM GMT

By: Andrew_Butter

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe good news is that the Saudis are saying $70 to $80 is “Fair”. The bad news is they may change their minds and with oil knocking at the door of $90 and some OPEC malcontents muttering $100, they are starting to look a bit wobbly.  Or even if they are “steadfast”, perhaps they won’t be able to pump enough oil to contain prices?

In 1985 OPEC was holding back 11 million barrels a day of capacity, in 1995 that had dwindled to 2 million a day, today no one is sure. The leverage to keep oil prices down is a function of how much “ammo” you have.


In which case oil might start to get priced not at an estimate of the “correct” amount of “blood” to suck out of the world economy, without causing serious harm (Parasite Economics), but instead at the cost to go out and bring 25 million barrels a day or so of “new oil”, on line…like next week.

So how about if oil goes back up to $147 and stays there?

This is an analysis of the “Fair-Price” of oil going back to 1970, before the first oil-shock. The red-line (the fundamental or in valuation-speak the Other-Than-Market-Value), is an estimate of the price at which the world economy does not suffer.

The logic behind that line is at: http://seekingalpha.com/article/240571-bubbleomics-10-year-oil-price-prediction

Let’s pretend for a moment that line is about right, the next thing that’s interesting is what happens when there is “disequilibrium”, or in other words when the actual price of oil is markedly different from the “fundamental”.

Expressing that as a percentage (actual-oil-price divided by the “fundamental”), and comparing it with a measure of “economic well-being”, for example, CPI in America:

Here is a comparison with two versions; CPI-U which is the “official” figure (red-line) and the Shadow Stats estimate (blue line)

Best-fit, year-on year 62% of changes in CPI-U, can be predicted by oil mispricing lagged one year (so this year’s CPI-U is roughly predicted by last year’s oil mispricing). Plot against the average of CPI-U and Shadow-Stats and the correlation improves.

Sure oil is clearly not the only driver, although eyeballing the chart suggests that a mechanism might be (1) oil gets mispriced up (2) CPI goes up (3) the Fed “tightens” and CPI goes down (along with the economy) (4) oil goes down (5) everyone breathes a sigh of relief. And well when oil is mispriced low, that’s a time of milk and honey, where the “Inflation Targeting” of the Fed can do no wrong.

My view on the Shadow Stats numbers is that they are over-blown, and that the big mistake that the Bureau of Labour made was in relation to Owner’s Equivalent of Rent, but apart from that their numbers are pretty sound, so the big disconnect started in about 2000.

But that’s just detail, what hits me in the face about that chart is:

1:  The price of oil or the mispricing of oil reference what the buyers can afford to pay; is a better determinate of CPI-U or whatever, than monetary policy.

2: If the Saudi’s can’t “contain” the price of oil, and the threat of “peak-oil” which even the IEA now concedes is a reality, starts to provide a logic for those countries who have any oil left to keep it in the ground; on the assumption that it will be worth a lot more next year, then prices will go up.

And by-the way don’t put too much faith in corn-ethanol as a saviour, the reality is that you need more oil to make that stuff than you need to make regular gasoline.

If oil prices keep going up and start knocking on $150, then according to that chart CPI however you measure it will go up.

In that case, regardless of Ben’s brave words about being able to cut-off inflation in a heartbeat; there will be nothing the Fed can do about that, outside of pushing up the base rate to throttle-down the economy.

America is unique in the world in that it needs twice the oil to generate one unit of GDP, as anywhere else; and now that the financial engineers who kept the Smoke and Mirrors show on the road for so long, are out of business; if oil does start to blow, could that signal the end of an era?

For the past fifteen years, any discussion about "Peak-Oil" has been countered with the argument - "don't worry your pretty little head… someone will pull a rabbit out of the hat".

If so, the only question that remains is will 2011 be the "Year of the Rabbit", in more ways than one?

By Andrew Butter

Twenty years doing market analysis and valuations for investors in the Middle East, USA, and Europe; currently writing a book about BubbleOmics. Andrew Butter is managing partner of ABMC, an investment advisory firm, based in Dubai ( hbutter@eim.ae ), that he setup in 1999, and is has been involved advising on large scale real estate investments, mainly in Dubai.

© 2010 Copyright Andrew Butter- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Andrew Butter Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife