Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
The AI Stocks Megatrend Big Picture - 8th Mar 21
The Future of FINRA, Regulatory Defense and Bad Stockbrokers - 8th Mar 21
Almost Everyone Is Online: But Most of the Money Isn’t - 8th Mar 21
It is Time for Stock Market Investor Caution? - 8th Mar 21
Gold Predictive Modeling Suggests A New Rally Targeting $2300+, But When Will it Start? - 8th Mar 21
Gold: Crisis or Opportunity? - 8th Mar 21
US Bitter Cold Snap is a sign of the times - 8th Mar 21
How Scan Computers Builds Your Custom Built PC - Review (2) - 8th Mar 21
US Economy, GDP, Unemployment, Inflation Impact on House Prices Trend 2021 - 8th Mar 21
BACK TO SCHOOL - UK Coronavirus Lockdown Ending - Summer Holidays & Booming Economy Ahead - 8th Mar 21
So, Where Is Gold's Corrective Upswing? - 7th Mar 21
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger Stock Market Crazy Ivan Event - 7th Mar 21
The Great Reset Is Coming for the Currency - 7th Mar 21
Gold Continues Declines on Bond Yield Jitters - 7th Mar 21
The Case for Inflation - 7th Mar 21
Dow Short-term Stock Market Trend Analysis - 6th Mar 21
Intel Rocket Lake EXPLODE on Launch - 11th Gen CPU's RUN VERY HOT Bad Cinebench R20 Scores - 6th Mar 21
US & UK Head for Post Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown Inflationary Economic BOOM - 6th Mar 21
FED Balance Sheet Current State - 5th Mar 21
The Global Vaccine Race Against Time and Variants - 5th Mar 21
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again) In Stock Market - 5th Mar 21
After Gold’s Slide, What Happens to Miners? - 5th Mar 21
Racism Pandemic Why UK Black and Asians NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 BAME - 5th Mar 21
Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 - 4th Mar 21
Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? - 4th Mar 21
The Top Technologies That Are Transforming the Casino Industry - 4th Mar 21
How to Get RICH Crypto Mining Bitcoin, Ethereum With NiceHash - 4th Mar 21
Coronavirus Pandemic Vaccines Indicator Current State - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations Explained - 3rd Mar 21
Stock Market Bull Trend in Jeopardy - 3rd Mar 21
New Global Reserve Currency? - 3rd Mar 21
Gold To Monetary Base Ratio Says No Hyperinflation - 3rd Mar 21
US Fed Grilled about Its Unsound Currency, Digital Currency Schemes - 3rd Mar 21
The Case Against Inflation - 3rd Mar 21
How to Start Crypto Mining Bitcoins, Ethereum with Your Desktop PC, Laptop with NiceHash - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing Portfolio Buying Levels and Valuations 2021 Explained - 2nd Mar 21
There’s A “Chip” Shortage: And TSMC Holds All The Cards - 2nd Mar 21
Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors - 2nd Mar 21
Silver Is Close To Something Big - 2nd Mar 21
Bitcoin: Let's Put 2 Heart-Pounding Price Drops into Perspective - 2nd Mar 21
Gold Stocks Spring Rally 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
How blockchain technology will change the online casino - 2nd Mar 21
How Much PC RAM Memory is Good in 2021, 16gb, 32gb or 64gb? - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Is The U.S. Dollar Too Big to Fail? Gold and Silver Lifeline

Currencies / US Dollar Dec 15, 2010 - 11:00 AM GMT

By: Lorimer_Wilson


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThose in the U.S. power structure know what the plan is should the U.S. dollar fail. They are not admitting publically that there is even the remotest chance that it could happen but, rest assured, there is a plan.  There is always a plan.  To paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt, nothing happens by chance in government, so don’t be caught up in such a ‘surprise’ event - whatever it may be and whenever it occurs.

The U.S. Dollar: Too Much of a Good Thing?
The U.S. dollar really is everyone’s problem.  There are more dollars in circulation worldwide than any other currency - perhaps more than all other currencies combined as a full two-thirds of the rest of the world’s foreign reserves are denominated in U.S. dollars.  It’s also true that two-thirds of all dollars circulate outside of the United States.  They have long been the choice of exchange on the world’s black markets.  The reason is because they are so recognizable and accepted everywhere else; in other words, liquid and fungible.  They have also tended to keep their purchasing power value relatively constant until recently.  That's why many nations peg their currency to the dollar.  It also helps that it is still the world reserve currency.
Is the Decline of the U.S. Dollar Just A Matter of Time?
The above virtues being touted there are too many of them anymore and the law of supply and demand states that the more of something there is, the less value it has and the less demand there is for it.  The world is becoming saturated with U.S. dollars and many are looking for alternatives. As such, it is only a matter of time before the dollar does fail.   When, how, and at what speed are all that are left for debate.

What Would the Decline of the U.S. Dollar Mean For America – and the World?
Failure of the dollar would be noticeable in many ways and when it does fail we won't have to ask if it has - we'll know.  Failure of the dollar will mean many things.  It will mean that it is no longer recognized as having or retaining value.  In other words, confidence in it will be greatly or entirely diminished.  We only hold dollars (or any currency), not because they have value themselves, and not that we find them useful, but because the perception that others will accept them for goods or services.  We hold them because we have confidence that we will be able to pass them on at a later date.

A failure would mean that, at a minimum, the cost of everything, but especially anything we import, would rise dramatically.  In a worst case scenario, dollars would not be accepted in any quantity for goods or services, either domestic or foreign.

What Would Some of the Possible Triggers Be For a Decline in the U.S. Dollar?

1. The Chinese could start selling their U.S. Bonds and Treasuries. 
This would make interest rates rise, collapse demand for new offerings, and make dollars return to the U.S., thus stoking domestic inflation.

2. The dollar could suddenly or gradually stop being the world reserve currency. 
This would cause the value of the dollar on the Forex (currency market) to fall against other currencies, possibly setting off a self-fulfilling hyper- inflationary event.

3. Another currency could become backed by gold before the dollar.
This would set off a scramble to convert dollars into that currency and causing the dollar to fail as people try to get rid of them to buy the other currency.

The above are just a few of the possible scenarios that could precipitate the failure of the dollar.  The important point is that this failure is not only possible but likely, and likely to happen sooner rather than later.

How Could the Demise of the U.S. Dollar Be Avoided?

1. We could collectively start living within our means.
This would stop the debasement of the currency but such an effort would be politically and socially unacceptable to both the government and the people.

2. The U.S. could implement a new currency.
The problem with such a 'solution' is that the problem wouldn’t go away by simply erasing zeros on the currency.  The inflation dynamic would still be present if no other action were taken in conjunction with such action.

3. The Fed could hyper-inflate the economy.
Such an effort would only be a temporary solution and not a cure, however.  The U.S. Government has already caused a bubble in the Dollar, Bond, and Treasury markets.  The bailout schemes of the last few years necessitated [that] trillions of new dollars be created. 

This is the path we have been on for some time and it has masked the problem to a certain extent but this ‘solution’ would by no means be a cure.

4. The U.S. government could default on its debt obligations.
Heck, the U.S. already defaulted on its internal obligations in 1933 and to its external creditors in 1971.  The U.S. continues in default every day by issuing more dollars than can ever be redeemed at their current purchasing power.  It is the chosen path, the inflation path.  The question, however, is whether the U.S. would default en-masse on all of its remaining obligations all at one time?  If so, it would be a moon shot for gold, silver and all commodities immediately following the default.  This would likely be done at the most advantageous time (night, holiday) for the government and the worst time for you, leaving you without time to prepare or protect yourself.

5. The Fed could revalue the U.S. dollar in terms of gold.
This is already happening gradually and goes hand-in-hand with the previous two scenarios.  In this scenario, instead of the U.S. defaulting on its obligations or re-valuing the currency, it could re-value the price of gold in dollars announcing that it would pay (buy) a certain (higher) price for gold on the open market.  This would have the effect of immediately re-valuing every ounce of gold on the planet.  It would then be possible to cover our outstanding debt with our gold reserves (if they're all there), leading to a de-facto gold standard.

6. Return to a Gold Standard.
This seems to be inevitable at some point.  How we get there and the ultimate price established for an ounce of gold are up for debate.  In all likelihood, plans are already afoot and this will be a ‘surprising’ event for most when, not if, but when it does happen.

7. A combination of the above.
This is also very likely. The price of gold will simply be allowed to rise to clear the market.  They revalued gold with the stroke of a pen in the 1930's and could very well do it again.  All that needs to be done is for the government to state that it will now purchase gold for a set dollar amount and then all gold, everywhere, would be worth that amount.  Like an equity trading on a stock market, it's the last trade at the margin that sets the value of every other stock of the company.

Someone, somewhere, in the U.S. power structure knows what the plan is but isn’t telling us - but rest assured - there is a plan.  There is always a plan.  To paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt, nothing happens by chance in government.  Don’t be caught up in such a ‘surprise’ event - whatever it may be and whenever it occurs.

Take note: Holding physical gold is your lifeline in any of the above scenarios.

Jerry Western is the author of the newly published “Got Gold?  Get Gold!: The Everything Gold Book” on how to protect one’s wealth in the 21st century gold rush. Buy it on-line or at your favorite book store.

Visit, “A site/sight for sore eyes and inquisitive minds”,  and, “It’s all about MONEY”,  where you can sign up for their FREE weekly "Top 100 Stock Market, Asset Ratio & Economic Indicators in Review."  

© 2010 Copyright Jerry Western- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules