Category: US Dollar
The news items published under this category are as follows.
Friday, June 26, 2009
U.S. Stocks, Dollar Decline on China Calls for World Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: GoldCore
The People’s Bank of China report is very significant news for the international monetary system and for the gold market. Their call for a new global reserve currency or super sovereign currency will likely lead to further pressure on the dollar. Despite gold having risen and then fallen in value today, the news is another bullish factor supporting higher gold prices in the medium term.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Contraction in Economy Slowing Creates Bullishness for U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: BrewerFX
The Fed ended much of the uncertainty in the Forex markets today when it announced that its key lending rate would stay between 0 - .25%, and there would be no additional expansion of its balance sheet through the purchases of government assets and mortgages.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Why “BRIC” Posturing Against the U.S. Dollar Just Doesn’t Add Up / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: The dollar has been publicly attacked on many fronts over the past three months. And endless accusations have been made that the U.S. is purposely trying to devalue the dollar to lessen its growing debt burden.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Very Dangerous Time For Dollar Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
I don't want to get into the prediction game or even be the first one to say, "I told you so", but I believe the Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY) has a very high likelihood of embarking on a major down swing in the coming weeks.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Politicians to the World: “Forget All Those Trillions, the Dollar’s Doing GREAT!” / Politics / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
As a general rule of thumb, anytime a politician (especially a finance minister or central banker) comes forward to assure investors that his country’s currency is sound, you better believe the currency is in BIG trouble.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
U.S. Dollar: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Russian President Medvedev suggests the dollar is on its way out; Russian Finance minister Kudrin says there is no substitute for the dollar. The Chinese see a need to diversify out of the dollar; the Japanese say their trust in the dollar is unshakable. Let’s look at this puzzle and make some sense of it.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
How long Can the U.S. Dollar Last as the World’s Reserve Currency? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes: The big question is how long can the dollar last as the world’s reserve currency? Needless to say, that is not an easy question to answer. We recently called the top on the dollar at 89.50 on the USDX. The USDX is six currencies versus the dollar on a weighted basis. More than a year ago the dollar hit a low on the USDX at 71.18. A phenomenal rally ensued from that level expedited by de-leveraging and the closing out positions within the carry trade. A good example of the carry trade was when a bank in NYC borrowed yen. At ½% interest, sold the yen for dollars and bought dollar denominated securities.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
What's the Relationship Between the U.S. Dollar and Commodities? / Commodities / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: The dollar can’t manage to find its way out of the limelight these days. There’s speculation about its demise and the loss of its world reserve currency status. It’s even blamed for higher gas prices.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
US Dollar Index Embarking on Voyage of Recovery… / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
…at the least over the shorter term. Last week the US Dollar Index started to rebound from technical support, aided by an interesting ‘Fibonacci’ projection which we detail below. Our bullish view here underpins our thinking across a range of markets that we cover in the FX Trading Guide, where we have adopted some early, somewhat aggressive reverse stances.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Falling Stock Markets Still Key for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The intermarket relationship underpinning the US currency and global equities remains largely unhinged, with falling equities persisting as the longe saviour for the corroding US dollar. And so once again the falling US dollar got a fresh respite from a falling stock market. Earlier in the day, the dollar seemed to succumb to one of those typical selling waves after better than expected UK housing numbers, improving confidence figures in Australia and higher than expected Norwegian inflation -- all of which bolstered the rally of these currencies against the greenback. Such figures reduce the need for quantitative easing in these economies, which only add to a widening in their yield differential ahead of the US currency.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
The Plummeting U.S. Dollar Economic Prosperity Plan / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
It is becoming painfully obvious that the Fed, Treasury, and Administration's disastrous recovery plan hinges on the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Their specious strategy stems from the belief that a falling currency can re-ignite exports and spark a recovery in manufacturing while putting a floor in U.S. asset prices. But just as the President's initials indicate, the plan stinks of B.O.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 04, 2009
Bernanke's Math - Does It Add Up? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The current account deficit is down as we are less reliant on foreigners to finance our deficits; the government's deficit is increasingly covered by the domestic private sector as private sector borrowing is down. -- These were the approximate words of Fed Chairman Bernanke in testimony to the House Budget Committe. This statement is so troublesome, let's examine it a step at the time.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Speculative Bets Against the U.S. Dollar Highest Since July 15 2008 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Anti-dollar sentiment is again running rampant. Please consider Bets against dollar highest since start of economic crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...Speculative bets against the dollar have risen to their highest level since the onset of the financial crisis.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
How Far Can the U.S. Dollar Fall? / Commodities / US Dollar
By: INO
I was quite amazed when I looked back to see how long it’s been since I’ve put together a Dollar Index (NYBOT_DX) video. I had to look back to September of 2008 to find the last series of videos I had done specifically for the Dollar Index, and it proved to be successful.
Monday, June 01, 2009
China Forced to Support U.S. Dollar to Defend $2 trillion Currency Reserves / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Pravda
China is uncomfortable about being the principal creditor of the United States. Asia’s largest nation became the hostage of the US economy in the 21st century. The reserves of the People’s Republic of China are based on dollar assets - $2 trillion. US Treasury Bonds make $700 billion of the amount. China is forced to continue crediting the budget deficit of the United States not to let these reserves go down in value.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 30, 2009
US Dollar Hegemony Over China and Russia / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes:
The Chinese and Russians are the laughing stock of the US and European Illuminists at the G-20 meetings concerning talk about a new world reserve currency to supplant the dollar. With China's gold reserves of about a thousand tons and Russia's five hundred tons, they are like penny ante poker players trying to get in on a thousand dollar ante game. They need five to ten thousand tons of gold reserves just to be an average player in "The Big Game," much less a leading and influential player. The rest of their foreign exchange reserves are denominated in fiat currencies, which are all practically worthless except for the euro and Swiss franc.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Drags Dollar Lower Under Weight of Bond Issuance / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Talk of Fed Exit Strategy is Premature. Yesterdays 23-basis point jump in 10-year yields to 3.74% may have been helped by mortgage backed securities traders hedging, but the upward trend remains clearly intact. With Fed increasingly behind the curve in catching up with US Treasurys relentless bond issues, 10 year yields have now retraced over 50% of their decline from their 5.32% high of June 2007 to their record low of 2.03% in December.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar, the Worst Investment of All Time? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
One investment, more than any other, has proven to be a terrible storehouse of value for well over 80 years.
While some disasters unfold rapidly (Enron, subprime mortgages, etc.), this investment’s decline has occurred in slow motion, losing an average of 3.6% a year. Indeed, you can hardly find a period in the last 89 years in which this investment actually MADE money.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Treasury Bond Market Crash Threatens U.S. Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD rose $6 early Thursday to record the best AM Gold Fix in London so far this week, hitting $949.75 an ounce as world stock markets fell and US government bonds bounced from their worst sell-off since January.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Roll Over Accelerates into Mid 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
In 2008, as the global bear market gather momentum, investors were drawn to the fundamentally weak U.S. dollar as a 'safe haven'. However, as volatility slowly erodes from the equity markets in 2009 and the appetite for risk in commodities and stocks gradually returns, the flight-to-safety mentality for the $USD is also evaporating. In its place is a return to a more rational fundamental review of the American currency.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
U.S. Dollar’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated, Still the Worlds Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: Many investors are concerned about the future path of the dollar … and with good reason.
The Treasury is increasing the money supply in amounts never seen before or even imagined … all in an effort to avert a meltdown and stimulate a path to recovery. And as expected, there are no shortages of opinions about the trillions of dollars being created out of thin air …
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 22, 2009
U.S. Dollar’s Impact on Commodity Price Trends / Commodities / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
On any day that commodities prices move materially, the financial media is quick to ascribe their action to the US dollar. And this oft-discussed causal relationship is certainly logical. With commodities priced in dollars, a stronger dollar will buy more units of any given commodity while a weaker dollar buys less.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
U.S. Dollar Slashed Due to Fed Quantitative Easing / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Today's serious case of dollar-damage was once again made courtesy of the nations central bank. The Feds purchase of $7.7 bln in 7 and 10-year treasuries in the morning, followed by purchases of $3.08 bln in Agency securities in the afternoon accelerated the dollar decline and the resulting rally in commodities --as was the case on March 18 when the Fed first announced purchases of long term treasuries. Today's dollar sell-off stood out from previous declines by the fact that EURUSD knifed through the key resistance of $1.3740 (failed 4 times this year) to $1.3830, and even sterling finally managed to break above its 200-day moving average vs USD--something that all majors currencies had achieved in previous weeks surging to a 7-month high of $1.5794.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Is the U.S. Dollar Heading For a Mighty Crash? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
Each month, the US Treasury publishes its International Capital account, (TIC) which foreign currency traders and bond dealers use to gauge the flows of money from around the world, into and out-of the US-capital markets. The demand for a nation’s bonds and stocks, combined with international trade flows for goods and services, plus behind the scenes intervention by central banks, all act in concert to influence the foreign exchange market which handles $4-trillion per day.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Is the U.S. Dollar in Trouble? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: INO
How we analyze the Dollar Index - According to the dollar index (DX), which is a basket of currencies that track the dollar, it would appear as though the dollar is indeed going to be coming under more pressure. The dollar index is much like an index for stocks except in this case it is for currencies.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
China and Brazil Try to Flee From the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Pravda
Brazil's state visit to China has set the chins wagging. Will an agreement be struck to invoice their bilateral trade in their own currencies rather than the dollar? Brazilian President Lula had made some allusions to this last month around the G20 meeting.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 17, 2009
The Incredible Shrinking Global Economies Bullish for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: Germany is the world’s largest exporter. And in the broadest global recession on record, demand for its exports has come to a virtual standstill.
As a result, Germany, the core of the Eurozone, is shrinking at a record pace. And Germany isn’t alone. Many of the world’s largest economies have rested on the export model.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Fed Seeks U.S. Dollar Devaluation to Reflate the Economy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Commodities are rising, the dollar is falling and the trade deficit is growing. Everything bad is good again, thanks to the Feds.
All of the pernicious factors that brought us to the brink of financial Armageddon are now once again returning and are still—amazingly enough--being embraced as both normal and healthy for the long term viability of the U.S. economy. Factors such as a strengthening U.S. dollar, shrinking trade deficit, a surging savings rate and falling commodity prices were all being viewed as the bane of the U.S. economy. And now, unfortunately, what had been the budding re-emergence of economic sanity is being obliterated by a killing frost thanks to the Fed and the Administration.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Follow the Money… Out of the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Kieran Osborne writes: Recently, stock markets appear to have experienced an almost euphoric phase, seemingly shrugging off most negative news flow day after day. Whether or not you believe in the so-called “green shoots” of economic recovery, a significant economic rebound, or a continued decline in economic activity, one thing seems abundantly clear: investors have been becoming less risk averse. The most commonly followed “fear indicator”, the VIX index, has retracted (likewise, other commonly followed indicators such as the TED spread has tightened and OIS spreads have reverted to levels not seen since the Lehman Brothers collapse), three month T-bill yields have recently risen and equity markets around the world have rebounded from March lows.
Sunday, May 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
The US Dollar Index has been experiencing weakness over the course of the past few days and is challenging present support levels, which if broken, could see a dip to 82-83. Analysis today will illustrate various trends in the USD and what to expect over the course of the next few weeks.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
U.S. Dollar Turned Back at Yen 100 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
The dollar seemed on the fast track to cruise past 100 yen and beyond recently. During the six week long stock market rally, the dollar surge to a high point of 101 yen on April 6th. However, as the Dow has flattened and held above 8,000 the last couple weeks, the dollar’s momentum against its Japanese counterpart has waned.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 23, 2009
U.S. Dollar Setting up for a Decline Into End of Month / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD suffered a violent whipsaw today first rising to highs during early New York trade before reversing to make lows against some pairs and end mixed. Rising to highs against the GBP, low prints were hit early as stops and aggressive selling dropped the rate to a low print 0f 1.4395 before short-covering and aggressive buying lifted the pair back to the 1.4500 handle to hold around 1.4510/20 area most of the day.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Global Deflation and Currency Manipulation Boosts the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: This week there was plenty of data to digest from the financial markets and the overwhelming theme was — more of the same.
If you missed it, here’s a run-down …
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Friday, April 17, 2009
Fed Using Currency Swaps to Boost the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
Currency swaps are of reciprocal currency agreements (swap facilities) between central banks. The officially purpose of such agreements are explicitly of short term and are intended to finance short-term capital flows believed to be seasonal or temporary in nature. Swap agreements are also misused to facilitate large interventions in foreign exchange markets, which is what is occurring with the dollar today.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
U.S. Dollar Doomed as Global Demand for Dollars Slows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Happy Tax Day! As you fork over money to the IRS, you might want to take a closer look at the U.S. dollar. It could very well be turning into a ticking time bomb inside your wallet.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Are the U.S. Dollar's Safehaven Days Numbered / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: It’s not hard to understand the relationship of the dollar with human emotions like greed and fear. And that relationship is rarely more visible than it is today …
When investors are willing to take on more risk, stocks, emerging market currencies and commodities all bounce. On the other hand, when fear is prevalent, the dollar soars, Treasuries take off, and gold starts sniffing towards $1,000 an ounce.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
U.S. Dollar Rally Lacks Conviction / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD held gains today as risk-aversion in equities prompted dollar-buying pushing the majors into key S/R at the start of the day. Although the Greenback is higher across the board today volumes were lighter and traders noted quality buying of the majors into the lows. Confirmed sovereign and semi-official names were seen buying EURO and GBP on the dips holding those pairs off their early New York lows. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Devaluation is Inevitable, Just Like 1934 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Vronsky writes: It is evident to all the US economic environment is an unmitigated disaster. In fact we seem to be hell bent for leather falling into another Great Depression (the recent Bear Market Rally in Wall Street notwithstanding). This begs the question: What can President Obama do to avert the excruciatingly sad events of the 1930s?
Here are the economic problems causing havoc today in the USA:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 02, 2009
The G20's Hidden Agenda of Devaluing the U.S. Dollar to Inflate Asset Values / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I'm buried monitoring the markets … scrutinizing them virtually 24/7 … checking every piece of news I can get my hands on.
I also have three Dollar Index charts on my trading screen: A monthly chart, a daily chart, and a 60-minute chart to check the short-term moves.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
U.S. Dollar Supported by Risk Averse Global Capital Flows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Last week's big news: The Federal Reserve announced they'd “officially” take up quantitative easing to finance the massive stimulus spending.
The Fed's decision to buy long-term Treasuries, soak-up more mortgage debt and open up the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) for the sake of consumers and small business inspired optimism …
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Stabilizes in April and Sell off in May / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
Though the longer-term picture for the U.S. Dollar Index appears bleak, with a downside target of $0.80 to $0.81 by June, models suggest the short-term outlook indicates some upward pressure building in April. Resistance is set at $0.8670 during this expected advance. Monty Carlo simulation supports the models outlook with a 95% probability that the currency will trade outside of the $0.70 to $0.83 band over the next 100 days. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
U.S. Dollar Imminent Collapse.. Again? - Update 5 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The fall in the U.S. Dollar in the wake of the "Quantitative Easing" headlines has brought the Dollar collapse proponents back out of hibernation. However the actual dollar trend has shown little if any deviation from the road map of 20th Jan 09 as illustrated by the below original price chart which therefore at this point in time does not warrant an indepth update.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2009
Currency Market Mayhem Amdist Stocks Bear Market Short Squeeze Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Currency mayhem this week caused a rally in most commodities as the US dollar broke trend line support and headed lower in a sharp decline. Analysis today will clue into the expected trend of the US dollar over the coming weeks ahead. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 22, 2009
U.S. Dollar as the World’s Only Reserve Currency is illegal / Politics / US Dollar
By: Pravda
A new world currency must be created under the aegis of the United Nations Organization, Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev stated during his speech at the 21 st Congress of the Eurasian Association of Universities in Astana.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 19, 2009
U.S. Fed Buying Treasuries Triggering Massive Exodus Out of U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
Is everybody happy? The US Fed today announced that they will be buying US Debt in huge amounts starting today and the result was a massive exodus out of the USD. Equities responded positively although more will need to be seen if investors view the progress as net-positive for equities near-term. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Economic Reflation Investing – Which Currencies Benefit? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Reflation refers to policy makers' attempts to “reflate” the economy, to prop up what many would consider a broken system. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke made it very clear in his March 15 interview on 60 Minutes that he will attempt to stem the tide of market forces: Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 09, 2009
British Pound Plunged Through Support Levels Towards Fresh Dollar Lows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD is higher this morning after a slow start on the defense in Asia, the majors making the best levels of the day ahead of European trade. The Greenback is making fresh highs against the majors in early New York as technical trade and cross spreaders pressure to the upside. Overnight equities markets were lower adding to the upside as well. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 05, 2009
US Dollar Shines in a Depression as China buys Metals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
“De-leveraging” and “Risk Aversion” are the buzzwords cited by many currency analysts, to explain the puzzling strength of the US-dollar, which has climbed by more than 20% since last July, despite the widely held view, that top Wall Street banks are insolvent and only surviving on artificial life support, and with the flow of credit badly constrained, the US economy is spiraling towards a “Great Depression.” Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
U.S Dollar Short-term Strength, Long-term Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
When President Obama took over the reins of government just six weeks ago, he stood at a historic crossroads. His decision on which route to take will make a profound impact on the future of the American economy and its currency. He could have persuaded a frightened Congress to initiate a structural change that would transform the U.S. economy from its dependence on debt-fueled personal consumption back to a path of productive growth. Instead, he took the easy route: attempting to delay the pain with stimulus and inflation, rewarding his benefactors without truly addressing our structural deficits. Disappointing for a man who campaigned on ‘hope' and ‘change.'Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bears: Be Very Careful / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The rest of the world cannot yet decouple from the United States' economy.
Excessive deleveraging of U.S. dollar-based credit is the sure sign that investors have come to understand this fact. They've pulled in extreme amounts of capital in search of a safe place to stash their cash. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 23, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bullish Outlook Throughout 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
US Dollar Index - The daily chart of the US Dollar Index is shown below, with the upper 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands riding the index, suggestive that further upside should be expected. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in all three instances. Based upon the %K curling back above the %D in #1, expect upside strength to continue into the foreseeable future. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Still Bullish / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
My reluctance to embrace the rally in gold has been well documented . One of the reasons, I did not jump on the gold band wagon was the strength in the US Dollar Index. Since August, 2008, it has been my belief that the US Dollar was poised for a secular change in trend and that gold has only been in a range. Based upon this, it remains my belief that the US Dollar is a better place to invest. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 13, 2009
The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Hewitt
One of the chief mandates of the U.S. Federal Reserve is to manage the nation's monetary stock. This essay analyzes the historic growth of the American monetary stock (or aggregates) since 1960 and looks at some recent developments revealing a marked adjustment in policy. These changes are a direct response to the on-going worldwide financial crisis that escalated in September 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
How Gold Links U.S. Treasuries and the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
US Dollar & Treasuries. The emergence of last week's unsual direct relation between the dollar and gold provided a valuable signal to the validity of the rally in the precious metal. It could also be explained by the rise in bond yields (fall in prices). Last week witnessed a rise in bond yields that was accompanied by a not-so smooth strengthening in the value of the dollar. Despite the dollar's leap to 23-year highs vs GBP, the currency made more modest gains vs the euro while nearing 14-year lows against the yen. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2009
U.S. Dollar Stalling as Commodities Bull Market Returns / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
Many investors that I have spoken to have moved away from the powerful but volatile commodities market after the cliff-dive drop that occurred in the second half of 2008. Other investors are waiting on the sidelines for the global economic expansion to develop which will bring inventory levels down and prices up. Yet, the underpinnings for the next upward leg of natural resource prices is already in play and leading indicators are starting to break to the upside.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Not Over Despite Lousy Fundementals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Prices of assets and securities lie very much on expectations for the future. Indeed, when optimism is present, it's only natural to expect:
- Confidence in the market place …
- Long-lasting spending sprees …
- And rising prices for durable goods and services.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 23, 2009
US Dollar Bull Market 2009 Update - 4 / News_Letter / US Dollar
By: NewsLetter
January 21st , 2009 Issue #3 Vol. 3Prevailing bearishness continues against the U.S. Dollar amidst a near infinite reasons of why the Dollar is doomed. But as an active experienced trader, one thing you soon painfully learn is that the fundamentals don't count when it comes trend reversals, as by the time the reasons have become apparent the market has already moved by as much as 50% and even then there exists the continuing dilemma of the trend versus the fundamental views based on hard data. However as I have discussed several times with would be traders in that your trading the price not the indicator or data. The bottom line is that what the price says is that which only 'should' count.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
US Dollar Bull Market 2009 Update 4 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Prevailing bearishness continues against the U.S. Dollar amidst a near infinite reasons of why the Dollar is doomed. But as an active experienced trader, one thing you soon painfully learn is that the fundamentals don't count when it comes trend reversals, as by the time the reasons have become apparent the market has already moved by as much as 50% and even then there exists the continuing dilemma of the trend versus the fundamental views based on hard data. However as I have discussed several times with would be traders in that your trading the price not the indicator or data. The bottom line is that what the price says is that which only 'should' count.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 18, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bullish Despite Global Recession / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The U.S. has become the most significant consumer in the world when it comes to demanding finished goods and discretionary items. Now, however, U.S. consumers are holding on to their wallets a whole lot tighter. You can see that clearly in this week's announcement of December retail sales … Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Radioactive U.S. Dollar UDN ETF Protection / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Oxbury_Research
There is a rather interesting scientific experiment going on right now in the United States. The experiment involves the effect that intensive radiation has on the brains of rats. Who is conducting this experiment? Why Wall Street, of course!
With all of the highly leveraged, stupid bets blowing up in Wall Street's face, it has been the equivalent of a nuclear bomb going off right in the middle of Wall Street. Most people would use common sense and get as far away as possible from the nuclear blast.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Boosts the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Friday was a big day for the market. The mother of all economic data reports created its usual commotion. That is, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls were released … and the numbers gave analysts plenty to talk about.
The U.S. lost 524,000 jobs in December. And as bad as that looks, earlier rumors had the markets preparing for much larger losses. The unemployment rate, on the other hand, jumped more than had been expected — up to 7.2%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2009
U.S. Dollars Inevitable Demise, Doom and Gloom, Get it Straight! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Oxbury_Research
"There will, before long (my best guess is between two and five years from now) be a global dumping of US dollar assets, including US government assets. Old habits die hard. The US dollar and US Treasury bills and bonds are still viewed as a safe haven by many. But learning takes place." -Telegraph 1/6/09 Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
U.S. Government Panic Could Herald Dollar Crash / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
One of the few things more troubling for an economy than government intervention is government intervention driven by panic. Time and again, history has shown that when governments rush to engineer solutions to pressing problems, unintended difficulties arise. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 05, 2009
U.S. Dollar Strong Start to 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD is on the offense this morning for the most part as the first full day of post-holiday trading gets underway in New York. Overnight was a mixed bag for the Greenback as early weakness in index futures put a bit of downward pressure on the USD/JPY and mixed pressure on EURO and Cable; thin conditions were reported in Asia as a half-day holiday was seen in Japan. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 02, 2009
Ten Major Threats Facing the U.S. Dollar in 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
1) Foreign central banks selling US assets Most of the nations which have been financing the US's massive current account deficits in recent years have either begun to sell their dollar reserves last year or are planning on selling them this year in order to support their currencies. These nations generally fall into three categories:
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 27, 2008
The Deflation Driven U.S. Dollar Bull Market of 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I'm often hearing how much everyone seems to be anxious to put a lid on 2008 and get started over — refreshed. I can understand that. This has been a very challenging year for many investors.
But, some hidden treasures have also appeared in the markets amongst the mess we've become accustomed to …
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Why the U.S. Trade Deficit is Worsening and Dollar Implications / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
Right up until the commodity bubble burst this summer, there was the ridiculous theory going around that the world was now "decoupled" and that European and emerging markets would somehow avoid being affected by the US slowdown. These decoupling theories disappeared as oil dropped like a rock, only to be replaced by an equally ridiculous idea: that the world's economic pain would be spread evenly. This is wrong. Although the entire world is going into a recession as a result of the credit crisis, some economies are better prepared than others to weather the storm. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
U.S. Dollar Buying Opportunity? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Traders have slashed the price of the U.S. dollar. And that's terrific news! Now you can get your hands on greenbacks far cheaper than you could only two weeks ago. If you are a regular reader of my Money and Markets columns , you know that my long-term theme is that the dollar will climb sharply through most, if not all, of 2009. And now's certainly not the time to deviate from those expectations. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
U.S. Dollar Plunges as Devaluation Policy Seeks to Export Deflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Bernanke & Co. on Tuesday signaled to the financial markets that they were hell-bent on pursuing an “inflate or die” approach to rescuing the ailing US economy and fending off the forces of deflation. The Fed is now inflating at a level possibly not seen before by a developed nation since Weimar Germany. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Fed Policy to Drive U.S. Dollar Lower to Prevent Deflation / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Faced with the threat of deflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be trying to drive the dollar lower to spur inflation. As policy makers don't want home prices to deteriorate further, an alternative is to inflate the prices of all other goods and services: as a result, the relative prices of homes would be less expensive. Weakening the dollar is an effective policy tool to drive up inflation as the cost of import goes up. Just be careful: the Fed may be getting more than it is bargaining for. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Crude Oil and U.S. Dollar Inverse Relationship? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Shaw
Are oil and the US Dollar inverse to each other? No. At least not always.
There are numerous articles out about “Dollar Up & Oil Down”, or “Dollar Down & Oil Up”.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
U.S. Dollar Crashes Through Support Treasury Bonds to Follow / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Clive_Maund
Over the past several days the dollar has gone into a severe decline, and this drop does not look like a reaction within an ongoing uptrend, as was the case in September, for as we can see on the 6-month chart it follows the development of a Head-and-Shoulders top area, a distribution pattern that took nearly 2 months to form. It looks like the dollar has broken down from an important reversal pattern. We had correctly identified the Head-and-Shoulders top back when the dollar index was high in the Right Shoulder of the pattern, when a Dollar Special update was posted on the site on 5th December, warning of a probable imminent dollar breakdown. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Zero Interest Rate Bound Fed Breaks U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The Fed's shift towards a range of 0-0.25% in its fed funds target zero intensifies the yield assault to the dollar, leaving little chance for traders but to extend speculative and directional offers in the currency. The decision prompts the biggest 2-day rallly in EURUSD (4.8%) following last week's 5.1% jump. The dollar is unlikely to immediately descend into an uncontrollable decline as the easing campaigns of overseas central bankers and secular market volatility has yet to recapture its peak. But the longer term prospects ahead appear particularly ominous for the world's reserve currency once global economic stability starts to buildup and the demand/supply schedule of commodities further moves towards the price. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2008
U.S. Dollar Set to Decline on Back of Bailouts Frenzy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The plethora of bank and corporate bailouts, stimulus plans and interest-rate cuts that the U.S. government has produced over the last three months can only lead to one outcome: The U.S. dollar has to decline.
During the crisis so far, the dollar in general, and U.S. Treasury bonds in particular, have been regarded as a “safe haven,” making the dollar strong and pushing long-term U.S. Treasury rates downward. In the New Year, however, this is likely to change – the weight of the added supply of dollars in circulation will be too great for the greenback to shrug off.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
U.S. Dollar in Retreat as Corporate Failure Risks Soar on U.S. Auto's Bailout / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
It may be premature to call the recent currency developments a paradigm shift, but it is worth shedding light on these changes as the news from Capitol Hill overlap with thin trading volumes. The current weakness of the US dollar is not only taking part against higher yielding counterparts such as the commodity currencies (which was usually assign of improved risk appetite), but also against the Japanese yen. Since the intensification of the market and economic weakness, the greenback would gain versus most major currencies with the exception of the yen during curtailed appetite, while losing ground versus its higher yielding counterparts and weighing on the yen at times of improved risk appetite. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Thriving on Bearish Skeptics / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I was doing some research earlier in the week, and I came across a blog I'd never heard of written by a guy I'd never heard of on a topic that we've all most certainly heard of … the U.S. dollar.
It was the same old story that's been beaten into the ground:
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Deleveraging Pushes Up the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
In view of the economic crisis facing the American and global markets, the recent strength of the U.S. dollar has confounded analysts. After all, the global economic problems essentially emanate from the United States and one would assume that the collapse of our economy would drag our currency down. That has not, as yet, transpired. The explanation can be found in a financial concept known as deleveraging.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 21, 2008
U.S. Dollar Technical Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Russo
Casting aside fundamental arguments relative to the long-term viability of un-backed fiat currency, we turn our focus to a purely technical assessment of the past 8-years of price data for the US dollar index.
Technical Tools used in our assessment are the following:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 17, 2008
U.S. Dollar Bullish Worlds Reserve Currency Dynamics / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's times like these when I'm really glad that I haven't devoted myself to trading in the stock and commodities market. Sure there's money to be made, even on the downside.
However, the dynamics of the currency market are far more appealing to me … especially at a time like now when good companies and bad companies are tossed into the same rinse cycle and hung out to dry by fiscal and monetary policy decision-makers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2008
The US Dollar Has Got To Go! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Galakoutis
It is clear that the United States has relied on a continuous cycle of debt growth to fuel its economy. The engine of the US economy has been the US consumer, and consumer debt had to expand at a rate that far outpaced negligible consumer income growth in order for the US economy to continue to “grow.”Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
How to Survive the Coming US Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Now that the US election is over, we get to think about the Future. And, no matter how you look at it, the entire world, the West particularly, is in for tough sledding financially.
First, we will continue to battle an emerging economic slowdown. Then, later, we will be battling world currency instability – we already have signs of this now.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Toxic Emerging Economies Boost U.S. Dollar Safe-haven Demand / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: An advance report of third-quarter U.S. GDP showed a decline of 0.3%. That's awfully pathetic, right? But not quite as pathetic as the 0.5% that was anticipated …
Still, there's no denying that a GDP contraction of any amount is unappealing. And when it comes to many of the recent U.S. economic indicators, most everything's been unappealing … if not downright ugly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 31, 2008
Bankrupt United States Will Reverse Recent Dollar Trend / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
When inexplicable events perplexed our early forbears, village wise men concocted elaborate and colorful explanations to soothe the populace. Earthquakes, hailstorms, and solar eclipses were all ascribed to root causes that made sense to the villagers and increased the esteem of the story tellers. The recent, unexpected surge of the U.S. dollar has led many Wall Street witch doctors to conjure a series of logic-defying tales to give reason to what is surely the random scramble of a confused herd. Wall Street spun similar yarns during the dot.com and real estate bubbles as investors groped for reasons to justify sky high prices. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
U.S. Dollar Has Entered a Multi-year Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's a popular notion when the financial winds are blowing unfavorably:
Money is being printed uncontrollably … inflation is the only option … fiat currencies are doomed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Why Gold Price Rise Will Trigger U.S. Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
For the last few years, the dollar has been in a bear market due to the horrible fundamentals backing the currency (the huge debt mountain, unfunded liabilities in the tens of trillions, rampant money printing by the central bank, and the huge federal budget deficit). However, in the last three months the US dollar has diverged from its fundamentals and rallied due to investors fears about deflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Update / News_Letter / US Dollar
By: NewsLetter
October 26th , 2008 Issue #35 Vol. 2The role of the U.S. Dollar as the worlds reserve currency kicked into gear this past week which accelerated the up trend of the US Dollar towards its initial forecast target of USD 90 as per the analysis of mid August 08 which was made against the overwhelming consensuses at the time that basically viewed an imminent collapse of n the US Dollar. Which despite the exceptionally strong rally to date that consensus more or less remains in tact today, where still the vast majority of views remain that the Dollar's rally as temporary in advance of a much greater and near imminent collapse.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 26, 2008
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The role of the U.S. Dollar as the worlds reserve currency kicked into gear this past week which accelerated the up trend of the US Dollar towards its initial forecast target of USD 90 as per the analysis of mid August 08 which was made against the overwhelming consensuses at the time that basically viewed an imminent collapse of n the US Dollar. Which despite the exceptionally strong rally to date that consensus more or less remains in tact today, where still the vast majority of views remain that the Dollar's rally as temporary in advance of a much greater and near imminent collapse.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 25, 2008
U.S. Dollar and the Flying Bankers / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joe_Gelet
The heart of the crisis is very simple: banks won't lend. Why they won't lend is irrelevant, the solution is so simple it seems too good to be true: force banks to lend. The modern economy functions on credit; exporters sell to foreign buyers using complex Letters of Credit packed with shipping insurance, small businesses depend on rotating credit lines to purchase inventory they sell to the consumer. Mostly working on small margins, these businesses depend heavily on credit to stay afloat; even a short disruption in their lending activities would literally bankrupt them. This has already started happening, and the banks are sitting on the sidelines. The simple, clear solution is to force banks to lend, by any means. Giving banks more money is not helping, they already have plenty of money, the problem is not that banks are undercapitalized it is that they will not lend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 24, 2008
Exploding Debt Dynamics: Argentia and the U.S. Dollar's Fate / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Justice_Litle
Whither the dollar and gold? To answer that long-awaited inquiry – which will take some time to cover in full – let's start by getting a handle on “exploding debt dynamics.” Cartoonish as it sounds, it's a real term that IMF economists use.
If, like me, the phrase gives you visions of Wile E. Coyote blowing himself up with a box of ACME brand dynamite, you aren't too far off.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 24, 2008
U.S. Dollar Currency Collapse Within 30 Days / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
It appears that there is a common refrain going around the investment community. It goes something like this:
"Gold should be doing better, and, since it isn't, I am not going to buy it"
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
The U.S. Dollar Death Dance / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The US Dollar rally in the last several weeks has been remarkable. At closer examination, it highly resembles a spurt prior to death. Imagine an old man who just had a heart attack, lost feeling in certain body parts, his mind not working right, plenty of nonsense gibberish coming from his mouth, and now he is dancing hard on some last gasps. The vast liquidation movement is akin to the old man going through an embalming process while dancing atop the tables at the funeral parlor, as bidding proceeds for his cadaver. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
The Strong U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
"We're for a Strong Dollar" "There are more tears shed over answered prayers than over unanswered prayers..." – Teresa of Ávila, patron saint of headache sufferers
SO HANK PAULSON , Ben Bernanke and George W.Bush got their wish. The US Dollar is now the world's strongest currency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 20, 2008
Central Banks Scramble to Buy Dollars to Bolster Banking Systems / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
The G-7 countries now have what amounts to access to the US Fed's window for dollars for their banks. But what of the rest of the world? Brad Setser, an analyst who writes a blog for the Council on Foreign Relations, ask some very interesting questions and points out some big holes in the world economic landscape. If you can't get dollars what does that do to your currency? This contributes to the rise in the dollar against some emerging market currencies. Setser asks: "Where is my swap line? And will the diffusion of financial power Balkanize the global response to a broadening crisis?" Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 19, 2008
U.S. Highly Inflationary Monetary Growth Will Lead to Dollar Implosion / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
In previous Dollar Death Ray we saw how size of U.S. Federal Reserve balance had exploded. That financial frenzy continues. In most recent report, Federal Reserves balance sheet, after appropriate adjustment, was 46% larger than a year ago. Most of that growth has come recently during bank bailout scheme. Rarely, if ever, has central bank of a major economy so lost control of its balance sheet, or monetary policy. That expansion of reserve bank credit is now feeding the growth of U.S. money supply, M-2. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
US Dollar Doomed as Credit Crisis Turning into a Currency Crisis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jennifer_Barry
When the precious metals were smashed out of nowhere and the dollar started climbing this summer I became very worried. I didn't question my conviction that commodities are in a bull market, or that precious metals in particular are undervalued. I felt something sinister was at work. Neither move was justified on a fundamental level. I assumed that something very bad was about to happen and the metals needed to be brought lower in advance of the bad news. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
US Dollar Death Ray Powered by Soaring Federal Reserve Bank Credit / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Dollar Death Ray , powered by the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, is aimed at the heart of the U.S. dollar. Forget the U.S. Congress debate of the Bank Bail Out and Congressional Reelection Bill of 2008. The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury, without a vote of Congress and support of the voters, has given $253 billion to banks in the past week. That is according to the Federal Reserve statement issued yesterday, 2 October. Without any regard for their actions, these two agencies are flooding the U.S. banking system with liquidity in an unprecedented manner. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 26, 2008
US Dollar to be Hit by Federal Reserve Bank Credit Death Ray / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Our graph this week is of the Dollar Death Ray , which is aimed directly at the value of the U.S. dollar. This plot is an extension of that which was introduced in last week's Gold Thoughts . In the graph is plotted the year-to-year change in Federal Reserve bank credit. In simplest terms, it is the rate of expansion of the asset side of Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Latest data was released Thursday, 25 September. In this case, it has been adjusted for a circular transaction created by Treasury supplemental financing of the Federal Reserve which was recently done. Federal Reserve bank credit, or U.S. base money, has now been expanded at a record level. Rarely, if ever, has a major central bank intentionally inflated its balance sheet in such an inflationary manner.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Will the US Dollar Drown in an Ocean of Debt? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
About $3.6 trillion of market value was wiped-out from global stock markets in the three-days between Sept 15-17 th , triggered by the bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers, and fireworks in the $62 trillion credit default swap market. The collapse of Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch's eleventh-hour flight for safety into the arms of Bank of America, and the meltdown at American International Group, were all linked to credit default swaps on mortgages that led to the fall of these titans. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
US Trade Deficit Myths Busted / Economics / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Jack Crooks writes: The public is consistently fed doomsday scenarios from sources that absolutely should not be ill-informed, including the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.
These guys should be the most informed bunch of all. But many are dead wrong when it comes to the U.S. current account deficit and its doomful impact on the U.S. dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
US Dollar Rally Not Over Yet / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Those looking for a collapse in the US dollar in the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy did not get it. The US dollar index was down huge last night but has now rallied to even. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
US Dollars Last Gasp of a Doomed Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
In the latest example of financial market madness, the recent government “bailout” of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae has perversely resulted in a sharp rise in the value of the U.S. dollar. If the markets were functioning rationally, the transference of staggering new liabilities to the U.S. Treasury would have been immediately seen as catastrophic for the dollar. Instead the markets have ignored the obviously negative long-term implications and have remained fixated on the more immediate effects. However, rather than solving the problems, the government's actions merely confirm my worst fears, and increase the chances for a hyper-inflationary outcome. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
“Maverick McCain” and the Resurrection of the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
“As soon as you think you've got the key to the stock market, they change the lock,” lamented Joe Granville, who is mostly remembered for his bearish calls on the US stock market during the 1970's, 1980's, and the 1990's. Nowadays, many currency traders are scratching their heads, trying to figure out what's behind the sudden resurrection of the US-dollar, which is flexing its muscles for the first time in two-years, and defying conventional logic, by climbing sharply higher against most foreign currencies, including those that offer much higher rates of interest.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Scared Money Heads for US Dollar and Treasuries / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
"...So today we're back where we started, with a collapse in retail investments (then stocks, now housing) and the collapse of the very biggest institutional bets. The US administration's response...?"
EVIL DAYS indeed. Scared and scarred by losses in all other assets, the world's wealth suddenly wants to sit in the safety of US Dollars and US Treasury bonds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Massive US Dollar Short Opportunity / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joe_Gelet
One way or another, the dollar is going down. Hold on to your shorts because this will be the short of the decade.
Recent interventions in commodity markets, which has been a combination of short selling in the Gold market, and large institutions taking profit in a multi-year bull market in hard commodities such as Oil, has caused a short uptick in the dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 08, 2008
The Almighty US Dollar and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Captain_Hook
(WWII), where to the victors go the spoils derived from conflict. In this case, and subsequent to WWII, the US essentially took control of the Japanese and German economies, and more, spreading it's influence around the globe by imposing $ pricing mechanisms that stand to this day. Therein, it's no fluke crude oil and other commodities are primarily priced in $'s you see, which keeps the demand for the ‘almighty dollar' high, allowing for it's continued unmitigated manufacture. What's more, this manufacture has now spread into financial derivatives and other debt related instruments that keep the $ bubble growing at an accelerating pace. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 06, 2008
US Jobs Report Generates Limited US Dollar Damage / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The jump in the August unemployment rate to a new 5-year high of 6.1% from 5.7% leaves little doubt to currency traders that the USD rally remains largely a manifestation of broadening economic weakness outside of the US, rather than any signs of strength at home.
August nonfarm payrolls fell by 84K vs expectations of -75K, in track to match the length of consecutive monthly job losses in the recessions of 1990-91 (11 months) and 2001-2 (15 months).
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 06, 2008
The US Dollar Bull Market Special / News_Letter / US Dollar
By: NewsLetter
August 18th , 2008 Issue #22 Vol. 2 Dear Subscriber, The US Dollar ended the week with a sharp rally that confirmed the recent breakout and the base building that began following the March 2008 low of 70.70, analysis at the time suggested that the Dollar was heavily oversold and projected a target towards $78, which is now in reach following the USD Index close of 77.15 on Friday.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
Why the US Dollar is Rallying / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Back in April, we alerted subscribers that the USD appeared to be bottoming. At the time, it was floating at about 70-72 on the USDX. A whole lot has happened since then to cause this reversal, with the USD now at 78 plus on the USDX (US dollar index currency basket heavily Euro weighted). There are many reasons for the rebound of the USD and its rise is likely to continue. Many of the long term trends that acted since 2002 to weaken the USD have reversed. The exceptions are the continuing US trade and fiscal deficits, but those USD bearish forces are being overridden by these other big bullish USD drivers that have now appeared in 08. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 04, 2008
US Dollar Soaring, Stocks Collapsing ECB Rates on Hold, So wheres Inflation? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Today Trichet went to a 'neutral bias' as noted in ECB holds key rate steady at 4.25% The European Central Bank left its key lending rate unchanged at 4.25% in a widely anticipated decision Thursday, and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled it likely won't make a change any time soon.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Currencies Surge Against Gold Led by US Dollar as Carry Trades Unwind / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The events of the past three weeks in foreign exchange markets continue to be dominated by prolonged dollar strength and a fierce bout of selling in the British pound. The charts below show the secular performance of the major currencies, measuring their performances against gold -- whose price is determined by the forces of supply and demand rather than by central bank monetary policy or printing press. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 29, 2008
Is Massive Foreign Treasury Buying Causing a US Dollar Rally? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here is an interesting theory stipulating that foreign central banks are behind the rally in treasuries and that in turn is causing a rally in the dollar. Please consider Foreign Central Banks Behind Rally In US Treasuries .
The huge amount of US Treasury purchases which has sent that chart nearly vertical helps to explain the continued rally in the US Dollar. It is a near certainty that something has been transpiring behind the scenes involving various Central Banks in regards to the US Dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 28, 2008
US Dollar Bottom Delusional Expectations in face of US Recession / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Delusional seems to be mental state of investment community as September approaches. Nonsensical talk of U.S. dollar having put in place a secular, or long-term, bottom is widespread. That EU economic growth rate might slow somewhat is interesting, but may be no more than statistical noise. That growth rate of Chinese economy might slow from “11+%” to “9%” is interesting, but is hardly a “dramatic” slowing.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 22, 2008
Global Economic Rebalancing Signals US Dollar Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Key News
• The U.K. economy stagnated unexpectedly in the second quarter, ending the nation's
longest stretch of economic growth in more than a century. (Bloomberg)
British pound futures 60 min: News of stagnation not taken well. Ouch!
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 22, 2008
The Real US Dollar Crisis Is Ahead / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Stathis
I'm going to be brief here. For those who have been celebrating dollar rally, don't get too excited because it's only a standard retracement, much like the U.S. stock market has experienced since reaching lows a few weeks ago. Of course the market has a long way to go down as well.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
The Reason for US Dollar Strength / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
If you’ve been wondering why the dollar has rallied so sharply, then stop wondering. The kind folks over at the Wall Street Journal have framed up the situation rather well. We’ve been keeping our Members up to speed on the relative game playing out in the currency market. Basically, even as the US economy fails to show any absolute improvement, the relative weakness from its competitors (primarily Europe and the United Kingdom) is driving their respective currencies lower and sending investment capital into the buck.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
Strong US Dollar Investment Implications for Stocks and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Mohamed El-Erian is the former highly successful manager of the Harvard endowment and current head of PIMCO. In an August 15, 2008 Bloomberg interview, he makes some comments which may help us to begin to understand the recent surge in the dollar in the face of less-than-ideal U.S. economic conditions.
"Currencies move not because they ought to but because they are allowed to. Previously rigid currencies are going to become more flexible because it is in their own interest."
Sunday, August 17, 2008
The US Dollar Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Dollar ended the week with a sharp rally that confirmed the recent breakout and the base building that began following the March 2008 low of 70.70, analysis at the time suggested that the Dollar was heavily oversold and projected a target towards $78, which is now in reach following the USD Index close of 77.15 on Friday.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
Yikes! Major Reversal in Fortunes for the US Dollar and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Tell us again about the safe haven qualities of gold? It has been going straight down ever since Russia decided to spread its wings again. Maybe it’s just a correction. But maybe it is, as it has always seemed to us, that gold is only a reflection of global purchasing power that simply ebbs and flows with the world’s money and its safe have reputation is just that, reputation. And in case anyone was confused as to the world’s money; it is the financial gurus’ favorite whipping boy—the good old US dollar.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
The Strong US Dollar Illusion / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
Economists who now see American troubles spreading around the world are predicting that foreign central banks will ignore the gathering inflation threat and follow the Fed down the rate cutting path. Similarly, they argue that since the downturn began here, the U.S. recovery will likely be underway while the rest of world is still decelerating. These assumptions have prompted a rally in the dollar, a sell-off in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, and have cast doubts on the ability of foreign economies to “decouple” from the United States. Investors should not take the bait.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
US Dollar Short-Term Rebalancing of Expectations, Long Term Risk / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Recent price action in the foreign exchange market in our estimation is a function of a short-term rebalancing in expectations of global growth and demand for commodities. When combined with the pause in the rate hike campaign at the European Central Bank and growing uncertainty regarding the prospects for economic growth in the United States dollar bulls that have been lurking in the shadows for the past several years have re-emerged with gusto over the past two weeks. Although, the late summer rally in the dollar that has seen its value increase roughly 8% against the Euro, the case for a sustainable reversal in the fortunes of the greenback is neither persuasive nor compelling. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
The Case For and Against the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
We have been cautioning for some time that volatility in the currency markets may increase further, even from the elevated levels of the past year. Nonetheless, violent market action is nerve rattling, even to seasoned investors. An uptick in volatility tends to be associated with an unwinding of leveraged positions. This is also the case this time, but the types of trades being unwound look very different from those just a few months ago when the “carry trade” was the talk of the day. To shed some light on recent activity, we will focus on some key forces we believe act on the dollar and the currency markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Spreading Global Economic Weakness Is Positive for US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Yesterday, the dollar rallied hard against the euro. And today I want to tell you what I think is happening. Let's start with a question ...
What happened to decoupling, the idea that other economies were immune to weakness in the U.S.?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
U.S. Dollar Soars Triggering Major Currency Breakouts / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Euro Falls the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate . The euro fell the most in almost eight years, pushing the currency to a six-month low against the U.S. dollar, as traders pared bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates as the economy slows.
The euro dropped below $1.50 for the first time since February after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday said economic growth will be "particularly weak'' through the third quarter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
US Dollar Bottoming? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Cai
Is the recent upward movement in the dollar a signal that it has bottomed out, and will now move back to a higher level? Or is it just a bull trap for those who are long the dollar?
Despite reports of cheaper prices for international travelers to the States due to the depreciated dollar, it would be wrong to safely conclude that U.S. goods are now so cheap at the existing exchange rate that the dollar must appreciate from its current level. Overall the price of American products is still too high to ease the massive trade imbalance between the U.S. and the rest of the world.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
ECB Rate Freeze Boosts US Dollar Long-term Trend Change Probability / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Euro Slumps to Five-Month Low on Reduced Bets for Higher Rates . The euro slumped to a five-month low against the dollar as traders pared bets that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates due to a slowing economy.
The euro also fell to a three-week low versus Japan's currency after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said economic growth will be "particularly weak" through the third quarter. The dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain against the yen in almost two months as oil dropped 18 percent from a record. The Australian dollar declined for a ninth day, the longest stretch since 1980, as futures show the central bank will cut borrowing costs this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
US Dollar / Crude Oil Inverse Correlation Returns … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Over the last year or so almost everyone’s been pointing to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and crude oil. In a special issue of Currency Snapshot we included a chart that showed the recent breakdown of this correlation. Here’s an updated chart:Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 04, 2008
US Dollar Bullish and Bearish Scenarios / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crook writes: You can never actually know for sure what's going to happen on any given day, in any given market. And it's thinking you do know that can get you into real trouble.
Instead, you should think about the markets in terms of probabilities. I believe that is the real key to successful trading.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Ben Bernanke has Become the Destroyer of Worlds / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I love readers' comments at the end of online articles and blog entries. I recently came across one at the end of an article regarding general Federal Reserve policy that simply said:
"Ben Bernanke is like the death star. Destroyer of worlds."
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
Currency Traders Are Convinced Of.. / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
... the Canadian dollar should be trading at par with the US dollar. We’re not sure exactly how traders became convinced, but this explains why we’ve seen a departure between the Canadian dollar’s correlation with commodities and commodity currencies.
At one point we’d have expected the Loonie to surge to new highs along-side crude oil and the Australian dollar. But we’ve found it just can’t shake the tight link between the US and Canadian economies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
US Dollar Final Decent - Dangers 2008-2009 Part2 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Part 2 talks about the world post the USD centric world economy. It looks out 1 to 3 years ahead. Part 1 talked about the immediate dangers to the world from a Middle East war, food and energy shortages, and inflation. It looked into late 08 and 09.This part talks about what would happen should the USD begin a final decent to far lower values.
We are now a full year into the credit implosion that started with the collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds in Summer of 07. So many dimensions of the world economy have changed dramatically for the worse since that pivotal event…
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Don't Buy the US Dollar Head Fake / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
This week, we were treated to strong statements by both Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke about the desirability of a “strong dollar”, and the intention of policy makers to pursue strategies that will enhance its value. To the relief of many, the dollar responded to the moral support and managed a mild rally. The move is inconsequential. The harsh realities have not changed in the slightest, and the dollar is set to continue its overall decline.
Although some investors respond to such jawboning, the more sophisticated international players, who in large part determine the foreign exchange market, do not. Why the bearish sentiment despite the bullish talk from Washington?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Australian Dollar Looking Over Extended Against US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
There is little doubt about the powerful run in Aussie—for good reason: 1) Strong economic growth, and 2) Highest yield among the major currencies.
Most analysts believe the next stop is par, or 1.000 against the US dollar. Another panic run out of the dollar likely leads to par. But on technicals alone (granted not too useful in a fear-driven market) the Aussie looks extended and due for a breather. Risk/reward!!
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
US Government to Intervene to Prevent US Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mark_OByrne
While risk appetite has increased with equity markets having a renewed bout of misplaced exuberance, this is likely to be short lived as equity markets experience another dead cat bounce. Barclays reports overnight that their “sentiment-based equity risk indicator remains within extremely bearish territory, and suggests that equities may continue to sell-off aggressively.” Poor returns and volatility in equity markets internationally is leading to safe haven diversification into gold. With the outlook for equities and bonds looking increasingly uncertain (especially in the light of the onward march of inflation in the U.S. and internationally), gold is set to continue to outperform other major asset classes for the foreseeable future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
US Dollar on Edge of BREAKDOWN, Gold on Verge of BREAKOUT / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The US Dollar is on the edge of the chasm again. The nonsense has been cast aside about a bank recovery, a housing stabilization, and an economy that can withstand a spillover. How incredible it is to see grown adults accept such marketing and promotional drivel. Wake up and smell the blood! The US financial and economic system has never been so vulnerable in almost a century. What we see now is far more dangerous than the 1970 decade, characterized by vast cost shocks. Back then, China was not a player. Its current presence puts a price ceiling on finished product pricing power, and even more importantly, on wages broadly in the labor market. Households cannot afford higher prices, as bankruptcy pain escalates. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Fed Intervention Will Not Stop the US Dollar's Slide / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
This week the Federal Reserve took a step closer to acknowledging reality. Unfortunately it didn't let that admission move it from a policy course firmly guided by fantasy. In its policy statement, Bernanke & Co. took the important step in noting that inflation expectations had taken hold in the country at large. However, in asserting that it expects inflation to moderate this year and next, the Fed gave no indications that these heightened expectations are gaining traction within the Open market Committee itself. As a result, it signaled no likelihood that it was actually prepared to do something to fight a problem which it doesn't really believe exists in the first place. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 20, 2008
US Current Account Deficit is Still A Drag On the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Lost amidst recent data on inflation, the rise in oil prices, a deepening crisis in the housing market and the uncanny ability of Goldman-Sachs to outperform market expectations was the deterioration of the current account balance in Q1'08. The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $176.4 billion in the first quarter of 2008 vs. the $167.2 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2007. The primary catalyst for the increase was a decline in earnings from foreign investments and the sharp increase in the cost of imported oil. Should such an unsustainable and large deficit continue to persist, the value of the dollar over time could see another sharp adjustment due to the combination of global macroeconomic imbalance and the unwise economic domestic economic policies pursued in the US over the past few years. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
US Economic Disappointments Point to a Continuing Rebound in the Euro / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Activity may be quiet in today's US data calendar so it is time to further shed light on next week's key events. Sunday's emergency meeting in Saudi Arabia between oil producers and consumers, combined with next Wednesday's FOMC decision may serve as a powerful recipe for a lasting dollar rebound and effective containment of oil price increases, especially for the US, Europe and Japan. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Truth of the US Dollar Devaluation Behind Bernanke's Words / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Andy_Sutton
This week we have seen a textbook verbal campaign touch off a long-awaited rally in the Dollar, firmly supported by data to suggest that the Federal Reserve should at least hold a hard line on rates. We have even heard some Federal Reserve governors, most notably Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser calling for an immediate increase in interest rates. It has been my opinion since we first heard this verbal campaign begin nearly two months ago that the Fed's goal was to do nothing but talk. So far, I have not been disappointed. Here are some notable quotes from this week: Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
US Dollar Lifted by Talk of Intervention / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $867.80 in New York and was down $27 and silver closed at $16.57 down 58 cents. Gold has risen in Asia overnight and in early European trading this morning is up some 0.5%. Further consolidation between $850 and $950 is needed and the 200 day moving average at $855 is likely to provide good support (especially with oil up 2% today).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
CPR for the Dieing US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Kurt_Kasun
Perhaps we should institute DNR rather than CPR. Two days ago Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke shocked the world by commenting on his concerns regarding the fall of the US Dollar. In past policy, the Fed refrained from discussing the US currency; US dollar commentary was supposed to have been within the exclusive purview of the US Treasury. But it is now clear that the Fed is making up the rules as it goes. The remarks have had the intended result of resuscitating the buck, a welcomed response, according to today's Wall Street Journal editorial, "The Buck Stops Where," "because the price of gold and oil have fallen in each of the last two days." In this election year, there is a coordinated effort among the Treasury, the Fed, and regulatory agencies to beat down the price of commodities. If only it were that easy. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 07, 2008
Bernanke's Feeble Attempt to Boost the US Dollar Lasts for Just 24hours / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Galakoutis
It is becoming increasingly obvious to everyone that in the world of central bankers there is only one credibility champ.
Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke warned about the price pressures caused by a weak dollar and emphasized inflation concerns in a speech on Wednesday, sparking a dollar rally and many pats on the back.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 06, 2008
The US Fed's Strong US Dollar Policy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
Ever since Robert Rubin began the tradition in the mid-1990s, it has been a significant element of the Treasury Secretary's job description to continuously state that a strong dollar is in the national interest. It is widely regarded that such utterances, if repeated often enough, can constitute the sum total of what is still laughingly known as the nation's “strong dollar policy.” Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 05, 2008
Climate Change Conundrum…Global Warming or Cooling? and US Dollar Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
The effects of burning huge quantities of oil around the globe has been going on for over 100 years and now the bio-feedback mechanisms are just starting to be noticed. Trends such as this take hundreds or thousands of years to revert back to the mean. A present, oil shortages along with many other commodities are now in Contango, which is putting pressure on longer term pricing for those wishing to secure raw materials for production purposes (e.g. steel for cars, oats for cereal etc.). Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Ben Bernanke Puts Markets on Notice that US Dollar Will Be Defended / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Ben Bernanke's speech in Barcelona this week hardly marks a new strong Dollar policy..."
BEN BERNANKE put the wind up Dollar bears, Gold bulls and just about everyone else in the currency markets for a whole hour on Tuesday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Has the US Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's my job to analyze the markets, turn them upside down, inside out, and always consider both sides of the story.
That's the only way to make informed trading decisions, and to make sure the odds are tipped in your favor as much as possible.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 02, 2008
Go Away in May, Come Back and Sell Today … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
We’re sure you’ve heard this before: “Sell in May and go away!” It’s the media’s cute way of explaining the relatively low interest and falling prices during the summertime. Mostly because they believe anybody who’s anybody is off sunning themselves on the beach or out at a ballgame somewhere.
Well, we’ve got a new little ditty for you: “Go Away in May, Come Back and Sell Today!”
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 26, 2008
Stocks and Oil Point to New US Dollar Low / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Just when nibbling at a dollar rally started to look safe — bam! The real world of rising risk reared its ugly head again.
Two markets that reflect risk are the stock market and crude oil. The stock market because it's the quintessential risk asset class. And crude because higher prices threaten economic growth and add to inflation expectations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 23, 2008
US Dollar Crisis Not Oil Crisis / Economics / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
It's unfortunate that the Supreme Court, in its ruling this week that U.S. currency is unfair to the blind, did not make the next logical step and declare it unfair to everyone who buys gasoline.
In their search for explanations as to why oil has surged past $130 per barrel, Washington, Wall Street, and the financial media are as clueless as cavemen after a freak summer snow storm.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Dow and the Dollar Tracking Tightly–Is US Dollar Test of Lows on the Cards? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
More evidence the dollar is not immune to risk. Stocks getting clobbered today for a host of reasons—choose your poison. Lately the dollar and the stock market have been moving closely together. Higher stocks equal higher dollar and vice versa. Is a test of the dollar lows in the cards? The run back into gold and continued move in commodities has the look of safe haven.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
How the Recession Will Impact the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Too severe, or not too severe; that is the question. I'm talking about the U.S. recession that we're already in, about to be in, or hoping to avoid.
At this point it depends a lot on how you approach the subject, but assuming for a moment that recession is inevitable, analysts and economists are asking: How much will growth contract? Can Mr. U.S. consumer muddle through, or will he stumble and fall? And how much have financial markets already discounted an official recession?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Australian Dollar vs. New Zealand Dollar: No Longer a One Way Bet Against the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
There’ve been a couple noticeable changes since the U.S. dollar index marked its most recent all‐time low on March 17th. Traders’ and investors’ appetite has been all mixed up.
The euro continued to rally to the $1.60 mark before falling about 5% versus the buck. It’s yet to recover. And I imagine this pair is under heavy scrutiny in determining the legitimacy of the dollar’s rally.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 11, 2008
US Dollar Bottoming Against Major Currencies? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
The dollar is gripping tightly to its two-week rally even though the fundamentals have changed very little. So what's behind the market's sentiment shift?
Less-dovish rhetoric from the Fed? That could be part of it. After the FOMC meeting last Wednesday, the Fed is now expected to stop cutting rates for the foreseeable future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Beware of the US Dollar's Fake Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
Don't mistake the U.S. dollar's recent rally for strength. If anything, it's a head fake of legendary proportions. In fact, the dollar's recent run-up is actually a warning that risks are escalating.
To better understand what I mean here, let's look at the greenback's recent performance against the euro. After bottoming at an all-time low of $1.6019 versus the euro on April 22, the dollar has soared nearly 4% and was trading at $1.5428 per euro early yesterday (Wednesday).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
US Government Facing Fiscal Armageddon- US Dollar in Deep Trouble / Economics / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
When a president tells you the economy's OK and wannabe presidents tell you it's a disaster ... or when Wall Street pundits change their story almost daily ... I can understand how it may be tough to know what to believe ... and even tougher to decide what to do.
But when three respected government agencies put out reports and data that unanimously lead to the same conclusion about the most important factor in your financial future, there's no room for disbelief, no excuse for inaction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Crude Oil - US Dollar Divergence / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
We got a fairly decent level of angst mail yesterday, in relation to the series of charts John Ross put together, suggesting maybe the market is telling us the buck has bottomed. Some of the usual conspiracy kooks and some very real and solid reasons why the buck will make new lows again were included in our email box. Thank you to all for your feedback. We always appreciate it and learn from it.
One of our readers asked the following excellent question: “[B]ut how to explain dollar/oil to the crowd following that correlation?”
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 04, 2008
US Dollar Long-term Cyclic Trend Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tim_Wood
Cycles are really just another way of looking at various trends of various degrees. Also, cycles in the market are really no different than many other cycles in nature. As an example, sometimes we have an early spring and sometimes it's late. Sometimes a particular bird's migration is earlier than normal and sometimes it can be a bit later than normal. In some winters the northern states experience more snow than in other years. Sometimes we have very active hurricane seasons and sometime we don't. The same is true with cycles in the market as they too, fluctuate in duration and intensity. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Will the Fed's Interest Rate Rollercoaster Ride Save the US Dollar? / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Why we Americans ever abdicated our financial freedom to a group of 12 unelected individuals who sit on the Federal Open Market Committee, is beyond me. That being said, we are stuck with a system that allows an unaccountable and unconstitutional institution dictate the appropriate level of interest rates instead of the free market. Our founding fathers made it clear that they wanted money to consist of only gold and silver. They did this so as to guarantee that the money supply had intrinsic value and would be limited in nature. This would also allow bank interest rates to be a function of savings vs. demand, not a matter of decree. Because of the above situation, we have been forced to endure a dizzying ride of interest rate gyrations that have created severe imbalances in our economy. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
How the FOMC Interest Rate Meeting Will Impact US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week. As you might imagine, a lively topic of conversation this weekend among currency traders is the direction of the infamous Fed Funds rate.
The obvious question leading up to Tuesday's interest rate decision: What are the implications of this FOMC meeting on the U.S. dollar? More specifically, has the Fed Funds rate found a bottom, or does the U.S. central bank have more work to do?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
“Hallelujah” for the Falling US Dollar?! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Hallelujah, of course, is a word of praise. To use that word to describe the fact that the USD has lost 40% of its value in the last 5 years, however, is economic blasphemy. Yet last week on television I had the pleasure of debating a well known strategist on the fallout of our crumbling currency and his angelic chorus was heard praising the falling dollar because of his belief that it would boost exports, rescue the economy from recession and encourage future GDP growth. Truly, “Hallelujah for the falling dollar!” is exactly what he exclaimed.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Gold US Dollar Trend Divergence-Trading in this Market is No Kids’ Game … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
This morning, for our Currency Currents Members, we delved upon the divergence between gold and the U.S. dollar. Ultimately, we feel this relationship could prove crucial to the direction the currency market takes now and a short ways down the road.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
United States- Death Of An Empire / Politics / US Dollar
By: David_Vaughn
What do you do when you no longer believe in something? I used to believe that economically things would eventually bottom out but I now believe we are due for hard times longer than I originally imagined. There are so many factors and fundamentals that refuse to quiet down. Instead, these issues are continuing to grow with a snowball effect. The momentum just grows higher and higher.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Elliott Wave on Crude and the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Stinson
Short Term Forecast Update - With a little more action in place, we have an update on the USD and Crude.US Dollar
The USD appears as an ending diagonal triangle pattern, currently in wave 4 of wave (5). The last update indicated that the USD was possibly in a (contracting) triangle but it will likely complete as an (ending diagonal) triangle.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Gold Highs, US Dollar Lows Not for Long / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
There is a fascinating technical situation in the euro-$ vs. the pattern
exhibited by spot gold prices. All of the action in the euro from March 17
has carved out a "wedge" type of formation, with flag tops and rising lows,
which should resolve itself in one pop to the upside into new high territory
above 1.5915 prior to a powerful and nasty downside reversal.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 10, 2008
US Dollar Crunch Time / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
‘Dollar’ and ‘Troubles’: two words that seem to go hand‐in‐hand these days. Well, if you’re disturbed about how poorly the dollar stacks up against major world currencies, I have bad news. Things could get much worse.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Has the US Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: "A bottom in the dollar? Are you kidding me?" are just two of the incredulous questions you might be asking after reading this title. All snickering aside, I do think it's time to start considering something as outlandish as that.
Despite still strong evidence to the contrary, there is compelling logic to suggest that, yes, the buck has bottomed. And if that is in fact the case, a sustained rally in the greenback would certainly present a rather lucrative proposition. Today, we'll delve into that very scenario.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Jim Rogers: More Pain for the Greenback, and the Failure of the Federal Reserve / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
SINGAPORE - By bailing out Wall Street and applying "band-aids" to the economy, the U.S. Federal Reserve may well be causing its own downfall - even as it hastens the demise of the greenback as a viable global currency, investment guru Jim Rogers told Money Morning during an exclusive interview.
Because of such strategic missteps, U.S. consumers could be facing a long and painful economic malaise, similar to the "lost decade" of 1990s Japan, or the stagflation-riddled 1970s in the United States, Rogers said.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 05, 2008
US Dollar Major Bottom Forecast Within Next Two Weeks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Marty_Chenard
This morning's update will look at two U.S. Dollar charts ... short term and long term.
The first is the weekly chart of U.S. Dollar going back to 2005. Very clearly, you can see that it has been in a down trend since 2005. Its descending channel has held steadily all the way down.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
The Collection Agency Weekly Report- Yen Carry Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report. Firstly a big thank you for the interest in this article . From the reaction I have seen, it looks like I put into print what many were thinking. Enough hindsight, let us see what opportunities and risks face us in the coming week, or longer. We take a look at the Financials, looking for weakness and strength, wonder what the Dow has to say and have a look at gold and a few other commodities. We finish with an example of current living standards in the US , thanks to an email sent to me a couple of weeks ago.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 16, 2008
US Dollar Continues to Get Clobbered by Negative Fundamentals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: There appears to be no end in sight for the sliding greenback. This dollar of ours is rapidly falling to depths where no dollar has gone before. In fact, to say that it's unclear when we can expect a recovery would be a gross understatement.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Gold $1000 Sees Right Through Fed's 'Strong US Dollar Policy' / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Galakoutis
Imagine that, an entire economy built around the ability of the American consumer to borrow and spend money he can never conceivably pay back. A consumer so gorged in debt that he eventually stops making payments on his mortgage, credit cards and others debts, putting an end to the gravy train ride of the financial institutions that facilitated the funneling of credit to the now beleaguered spender.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Three Strikes Against the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Outside of my family, the two great loves of my life are currencies and baseball. And there are so many parallels between the two it's not even funny. Take the notion of a "rebuilding season" ...
Here in Florida, I get a chance to closely follow Major League Baseball's spring training — that magical time once a year when fans get an up-close sneak peek into the season ahead.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 07, 2008
Real US Interest Rates and US Dollar Index (USDX) / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
After sliding to its lowest levels in history this week, the flagging US dollar has captured the limelight. And it certainly should. The dollar is like nothing else, a critical linchpin that links every market and asset of global importance. The implications of the dollar's fall from grace are profound and universal.
It's funny, as a surprising number of mainstream analysts on CNBC in recent weeks are talking as if this dollar weakness is new. Apparently they have no historical charts. The dollar, as measured by the flagship US Dollar Index (USDX), has been in a secular bear market since July 2001 . It has lost 39.2% of its value since then.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 02, 2008
US Dollar Plunges! Inflation Surges! Crunch Time for the Money Supply Pumpers! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: While nearly all eyes on Wall Street were riveted to the Dow's 315-point decline yesterday, the action in the U.S. dollar was even more dramatic, plunging to new all-time record lows!
But I still don't believe we've reached panic time just yet. In other words, you should be open to the dollar going even lower.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Like Beauty, the Value of Gold and the US Dollar Are in the Eye of the Beholder / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Lee
Like beauty, the value of gold and the dollar are in the eye of the beholder, which at times can be entirely subjective, arbitrary, and irrational. This is much akin to financial speculations throughout history from stamps to sea shells.
Everyone has their theory on why the US dollar is sagging – huge deficits, slowing economy, high inflation, artificially low interest rates, subprime issues etc.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
US Dollar at Major Turning Point? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: No matter how much money you've made betting against it, there comes a point when you've got to start feeling sorry for the U.S. dollar. In recent years it's become more hated than even the New York Yankees. And that's saying something!
You already know why the dollar has been suffering. Enormous trade deficits, a deteriorating real estate market, rising consumer debt, etc. All of these are contributing to the dollar's demise.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Win-Win Economics February 2008 - Alternative Money and Recession Relief / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Susan_Boskey
In This Issue:
In the News: Alternative Money
February Feature: Fourth Corner Exchange Bellingham, Washington
Quote of the month: Charles Mackey, 19th century Scottish journalist - “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”
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Sunday, February 03, 2008
Ben Bernanke Declares War on the US Dollar! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's hard to believe that the greenback could get any worse off than it already is, but the Federal Reserve looks dead set on doing everything in its power to punish the buck even more.
Witness the Fed's latest actions ...
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Friday, February 01, 2008
Remaking the US Dollar from the Bottom Up / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Paul_Petillo
Marco Saba, a researcher at the Italian Center for Monetary Studies and author of a critical book about banking titled "Bankenstein" (2006) took the time to write me about the dollar at the beginning of last year. Mr. Saba?s field of expertise is seignorage (monetary rent), macroeconomic evaluations and central banking.
For those of you unfamiliar with Mr. Saba, his work has led him to the belief that the current monetary system is in need of reform. In fact, the sheer radical-ness of the idea is akin to throwing the baby out with the bath water.
Monday, January 28, 2008
US Dollar Continuing Rally or Fresh Lows? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Forecasting market tops and bottoms is a mug's game. In reality, the best we can do is trade with confidence when the time is right.
In fact, I've learned the key to long-term market success isn't just about winning trades ... it's about limiting what you lose during the times you are wrong. And I think the single best way to control your risk is by holding two opposing views of the market in your mind at the same time.
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Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Fed Plays Russian Roulette with US Dollar - Stoking the Fires of Stagflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
In an age where governments of every political stripe distort data to promote their own self interests, it's hardly surprising that they present inflation data in a manner that is best suited to their particular needs. By the same token, it's entirely natural for official inflation data to be wildly at odds with the reality that is faced by consumers and businesses, and to be regarded with utter disbelief. So it wasn't shocking to hear Federal Reserve officials insist last week, that inflation in the United States is under control, before telegraphing another tidal wave of liquidity injections into the US economy in the months ahead. “Stable inflation expectations give the Fed a lot of room for maneuver. If the evidence suggests that substantial policy easing is appropriate, I don't think we're going to face a risk of adverse inflation consequences,” said St Louis Fed chief William Poole on Jan 9th.
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Sunday, January 13, 2008
US Dollar and British Pound Both Heading Down! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
The housing market in the United States is collapsing. It's no longer a secret. Nor do you have to be an economist to see how the real estate contagion is taking its toll on the broader American economy.
Heck, the evidence of an economic slowdown was already piled high, and last Friday's jobs report was the cherry on top of the whipped cream!
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Thursday, January 10, 2008
Currency Forecasts 2008 - Protracted Selling of the British Pound / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
A likely major FX theme of 2008 is already being playing out; Protracted selling in the British Pound, broad strength in the Australian dollar and continued rally in gold. We had described the British pound as the likely "dollar of 2008" and so far it hasn't disappointed. GBP drops to new all time lows against the euro, 8-month lows against the dollar, and 10-year lows against the Australian dollar. The latest catalyst to sterling's gloom is a decline in consumer confidence a 13-month low, decline in job placements to a 54-month low, and 2.2% decline in like for like Christmas sales from major retailer Marks & Spencer. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Impact of US Dollar Inflation and Devaluation - ILLUSION, MYTH AND MAGIC / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
THE DOLLAR HAS LOST OVER 97% OF ITS PURCHASING POWER SINCE 1913 (THE FOUNDING OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE 94 YRS. AGO).
What does it look like when we convert U.S. benchmarks of value to other THINGS over the past 8 years?
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 06, 2008
US Dollar Stealth Devaluation Leading to Hyper Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
Wow, what a start to 2008! So far in 2008, both the Wilshire 5000 (which is essentially the entire U.S. stock market) and the S&P 500 have lost all their gains from the entire year of 2007 in just the first three trading days of 2008. Gold set a new record high , Thursday intraday and closing, at 872.90 and 869.10 respectively. Oil hit $100 a barrel for a moment intraday Wednesday, for the first time ever . The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index enjoyed an 11.83 percent pop the first three trading days of 2008. Sweet. Treasury Bonds rose 2 points , closing inches from 118.00. The Dollar got carved up , falling into the 75's. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 06, 2008
US Recession - Friday Unemployment Bombshell and How to Trade The Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Recession is the operative word for the U.S. economy right now. The housing market is already there. And various other economic indicators are pointing straight down. Just look at the latest data that came out this week ...
The ISM Manufacturing Index report showed that 10 straight months of expansion came to a screeching halt in December. The measure contracted the most since 2003, and was much weaker than everyone expected.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
US Dollar Forecast 2008 - Determines Trend for Stocks, Bonds and Commodities / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Greg_Silberman
It's all about the Dollar (again)
Even to the casual observer it's now apparent that the financial world is one giant see-saw. On the one side of swing is the once Almighty Dollar and on the other side is every other investable asset class.
Wherever the Dollar goes in 08, stocks, bonds and commodities will head the other way.
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Wednesday, December 19, 2007
US Dollar Rally to Terminate Under Weight of Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Old man winter definitely arrived last night (for the second time this year, dumping around 6 inches of snow on the Peg. Each snowflake by itself is nothing in weight, but collectively represent a significant amount of weight that can pack down and form glaciers that may not move mountains, but definitely carve a path. Think of each USD as a snowflake, which by itself is nothing. Collectively though, the trillions of USD similar to the snowflakes blanketing a city are instead blanketing the globe. This creates a real slippery situation that causes accidents left and right, even for those that are conservative drivers. Snowploughs (AKA Central Bankers) can clean up and move the snow, but it merely is removed. Allow for a strong wind and the snowflakes are blown all over the place, creating huge drifts in areas where there once was nothing. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 17, 2007
2008: Penance for 2007 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Paul_Petillo
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
and never brought to mind ?
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
and auld lang syne ?
The timing of these year-end prediction columns is often of little importance. Believe it or not, what happens in December tends to meld into January. This blurring of the lines between one year and the next will not be your usual holiday hangover.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
US Dollar Bounce May be Temporary as Global Credit Markets Remain Frozen / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
As pundits on Wall Street want to hop on the next trade, they pronounce the U.S. dollar is due for a bounce. In favor of a bounce speaks that popular media cover the dollar's demise; and the Economist shows a burning dollar bill on its cover page while discussing the “panic” out of the dollar. While short-term currency moves are notoriously difficult to predict, it is rather worrisome that contrarian indicators pose the best arguments for better fortunes for the greenback. We also beg to differ with the Economist: there is no panic out of the dollar, at least not yet.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 07, 2007
Inevitable Demise of the Debt Based US Dollar / Economics / US Dollar
By: The_Big_Fisherman
From Fear to Horror - With the bi-polar behavior of the financial markets these past few months, it is sometimes best to remember back to when the unfolding of current events was seen only by the heretics. It is at this point in time where they had the least biased view of the history now being made. These mavens were few, and the ramifications of their insight were but distant theory. And perhaps only they properly recognize the extent of the horror now confronting those trapped inside the nanny-state bubble. Cooing pundits and those that soften the hard edges are not to be trusted.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 06, 2007
U.S. Assets Getting Devalued as US Dollar Falls! What to do... / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: The subprime mortgage crisis and real estate implosion in America have created a debt debacle. Consumers and corporations are in debt up to their eyeballs. And the national debt is increasing at a rate of more than $7.4 billion per day !
As a result, the Fed has been forced to crank up the printing presses to flood the economy with paper money in an attempt to inflate away the debt and keep it from crushing the economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 01, 2007
World Abandoning the US Dollar as International Currency For Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The foreign exchange markets are not solely about exchange rates. They are about values, smooth flowing of international trade, about trust and reliability. The sight of the $ falling over a long period of time, with bounces and recoveries that don't change the downward trend is far more than simply a drop in value!Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Falling US Dollar to Boost US Stock Markets and Consumer Spending / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Imagine that you have $2.8 trillion sitting around. And for kicks, let's assume that most of that money, about two-thirds, is invested in U.S. dollars and other dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds.
And let's assume that your currency was linked to the U.S. dollar, too. In other words, you often buy dollars to maintain a stable value relative to the buck.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 23, 2007
Weak US Dollar Looks Set to Lose Role as the Worlds Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
Goldfinger? Bofinger! "...Once the Dollar loses its role as the supreme reserve currency, just what other uses might it be put to exactly – wall-papering the inside of central bank vaults? Rolled up for use in the People's Bank restrooms...?"
YOU THINK you've heard it all before. But then some idiot comes along and stops your heart.
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Friday, November 23, 2007
Foreign Investors Set to Abandon the US Dollar as Fed Gives Up Fight Against Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
As internal debates in the Gulf and Asian nations intensify over the need to continue propping up the U.S. economy, dangerous signals this past week from the Fed, Freddie Mac, and Wall Street may be pushing them to finally let go of the lifelines that have kept America afloat.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 22, 2007
US Dollar Loses the Currency War - Gold Readies For Next Move Higher on Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The competing currency wars are beginning to escalate. Since 2002 the battles have certainly shown signs of economic damage. But they are really heating up. The winners are difficult to define. The losers are all nations involved. The important viewpoint is to identify which nations and economies will lose relatively less, and how they manage the warfare so as to gain an advantage over rival nations. The losers are clear. They are the United States and all nations which hang on with their tight US$ peg for political reasons. It is difficult to identify China (plus Hong Kong ) and Arab oil exporters as uniform winners when their economies are suffering some blatant distortions of their own. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 17, 2007
US Dollar Devaluation is a Supply and Demand Problem / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Andy_Sutton
Dollar falls to all-time low against the Euro"
"Canadian dollar hits all-time high versus US counterpart"
"Australian dollar at multi-year high"
"British Pound crosses $2 threshold"
These are just some of the headlines that have emerged during the past year concerning the ails of the US Dollar. There have been hundreds, perhaps thousands of explanations for why this is a good or bad thing. Thousands more questions asked, but never answered. At the end of the day though, it is really about our old friend: The law of Supply and Demand.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 09, 2007
Bernanke Squirms As the US Dollar Burns / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Brady_Willett
Bernanke's larger than expected 50 bps cut on September 18 helped spark a sell off in the U.S. dollar. A deteriorating outlook for the U.S. economy and another Fed rate cut on October 31 accelerated the dollar's decline. Fear has taken over in November…
It is not surprising that against this backdrop talk about how wonderful a weaker dollar is for America has nearly vanished. As a quick example, head of currency research at Morgan Stanley, Stephen Jen, was claiming a few weeks ago that although the dollar may weaken further, “…investors should keep in mind that the dollar is undervalued and ready to appreciate as soon as the economy regains traction.” The most recent sell off in the dollar now has Mr. Jen rattled, not to mention many others:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 09, 2007
US Dollar - A Crisis to Shatter the Whole World / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
THE FRENCH PRESIDENT was in Washington this week, speaking to Congress en Français and telling the United States to stop dumping Dollars and risking a global financial crisis.
Ooh la la! Sounds just like old times...
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 09, 2007
China Slams US Dollar; Yen Looks Great! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes:China is getting very good at controlling currency values, and not just their own. While it's no secret they've been artificially suppressing the value of the Chinese yuan, they're now pushing down the value of the U.S. dollar, too!
The implications for the currency markets are huge. Most importantly, this development propelled the yen much higher, and I expect the momentum to continue building. Here's the scoop ...
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Deadly Dollar Downtrend States All Inflation Adjusted Statistics Are Wrong, True Inflation is Double CPI! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The public and investment community continues to be bombarded with denials as to the importance of the seemingly endless slide in the US Dollar, along with curiously shallow commentary that the US $ slide seems overdone. The US$ exchange rates could justify a 50% decline from here, out of sheer principle, not based upon the relative price of milk cartons or taxi rides. The comprehension of the gold breakout signal seems equally misunderstood and minimized. To be clear, the people have begun to sense with alarm the nature of the energy cost problem, but do not detect its weak currency roots. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 08, 2007
US Dollar Devalution - When Cash Is Trash: What To Do ... / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Your cash — whether it's in money markets, bonds, or hidden under your mattress — is quickly becoming trash.
You see, just as I've been predicting all along, the Fed continues to flood the market with unbacked paper dollars. The latest: An injection of $41 billion, the day after the Fed cut interest rates last week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 08, 2007
US Dollar Bear Market That's Threatening Nearly Every Portfolio / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: Despite some hiccups, the broad indices have had a great run recently, pushed along by good data on jobs, personal spending and more. It's what you call a "Goldilocks market" — a time when the economic data isn't too hot and isn't too cold.
Gross domestic product is rising at a 3.9% clip, so investors feel things are just right, and they keep pushing stocks higher.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
US Dollar Slumps to New Lows - British Pound (GBP) 2.10 - Commodities Soar - Dollar Rally Expected / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Dollar slumped sharply to new lows against major currencies which included falling to $2.10 to the British Pound. The latest sell off was attributed to comments by a chinease official who suggested that China should look to transfer its over $1.4 trillion of forex reserves to 'stronger' currencies.
"We will favour stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly," said Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
How to Survive The Declining US Dollar: Free Report from Weiss Capital Management ... / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
With the U.S. Dollar Index now trading well below its previous low of all time … with its value now risking a virtual free-fall … and with the Fed's latest rate cut adding even more impetus to its decline … virtually every market in the world is being impacted: Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 05, 2007
US Dollar in the Doldrums / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Regent_Markets
The Dollar again grabbed the headlines last week as it hit all time lows against the Euro and levels not seen in generations against the Pound & Canadian Dollar.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 01, 2007
Factoring in the Fed Interest Rate Decision - Where to now for the US Dollar? / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Regent_Markets
Wall Street leapt higher last week after the Federal Reserve calmed investors' fears about a sinking economy, implying that risks to the financial markets from the summer's credit crises have eased, says BetOnMarkets.com's Michael Wright.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
US Dollar Haunted by the Ghosts of Halloween / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
The story of Halloween goes back over 2000 years to the ancient Celts. Druidic priests regarded October 31st as the end of the year. Not only was it their day for celebrating the year's harvest, but also a festival for honoring the dead. In order to appease the wandering spirits that they believed roamed at night, the Celtic priests made fires in which they burned sacrifices, made charms, and cast spells. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 29, 2007
Is an International Currency Crisis on the Way? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gerard_Jackson
In trying to resolve the basic issue of where prices go from here, we have to balance short-term market momentum against the increasing drag of economic reality and we have to weigh the price enhancing effects of inflationary monetary policy and deliberate currency neglect against the price depressive ones of a meaningful frustration of current entrepreneurial assumptions. We then have to grope towards some tentative conclusions on the vexed issue of whether the cycle in Asia (and, indeed, in Continental Europe) has achieved sufficient automotive power for it to ride out any more serious abatement of Atlantic Rim over-demand.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Dollar Devaluation Is Annihilating the Middle Class and Worse is Yet to Come! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
You Want to Know Why You Feel Like You are Struggling Financially?
Because the U.S. Dollar Has Just Been Devalued
by a Third Over the Past Five Years.
And more devaluation is coming. Perhaps another 50 percent. The markets are convinced that the Fed is going to drop rates again on Halloween by another half percentage point. This means hyperinflation, and all markets moved accordingly Friday. The Dollar hit a new low, at 77.00, and is worth 53 percent of what a Euro is worth.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
What to do when the U.S. Dollar Falls? Buy Foreign Stocks / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
As the U.S. dollar continues its downward plunge below $0.80, the question arises as to stock selection. Where are the best markets to invest in with a falling currency? The answer appears to be in Chart 1; Foreign stocks. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 21, 2007
America's Forgotten War Against the Central Banks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Hewitt
Let me issue and control a nation's money supply, and I care not who makes its laws." (Mayer Amschel Rothschild, Founder of Rothschild Banking Dynasty)
Many prominent Americans such as Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, and Andrew Jackson have argued and fought against the central banking polices used throughout Europe.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 19, 2007
The US Dollar Still Stuck In a Rut / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The finance ministers of six leading nations — Germany, France, Italy, Britain, Canada, and Japan — will meet with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in Washington today. And you can bet there's one topic they'll definitely want to discuss — the falling dollar.
How could they not? The dollar is as distressed as ever … the Canadian loonie is trading at multi-decade highs … and the euro has hit levels never before seen.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 14, 2007
US Dollar Bear Market Could Run for Many More Years / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: A rip current can suck even experienced ocean-goers out to sea. So it's no surprise that a weaker swimmer doesn't stand a chance amid such a powerful force.
Right now, the U.S. dollar is in a similar situation. The greenback has been caught up in a sea of fierce selling pressure. All it can do is flail out in the open waters, growing tired and weak. And even news that would normally be positive for the buck doesn't seem able to save it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 11, 2007
The Sinking US Dollar! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Vaughn
Look at that graph. That's a bull market in action. It just can no longer be held back. I've watched gold shifting back and forth and there is clearly resistance above 700. Yes, there below is my baby. Struggling now to top out at 750 an ounce. Go for it little one.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
GOLD THOUGHTS - US Dollar Reaction to Employment Figures Manipulation - From -4000 to +89000 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Economic collusion? Bailout Ben Bernanke needed some help before September meeting on U.S. interest rates. He needed economic numbers to justify an interest rate cut intended to bailout the banks. U.S. Department of Labor(DOL) apparently was quite willing to aid the FOMC. DOL reported, before FOMC meeting, that U.S. employment fell by 4000 jobs. With this report, the FOMC moved to lower U.S. interest rates.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
What is Happening to the US Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gerard_Jackson
Reading about the US dollar has once again brought home to me just how little our economic commentariat understand about the links between exchange rates, money supply and the balance of payments. Even today misconceptions about the balance of payments are still deeply rooted in mercantilist thought. Mercantilists came to theorise that an increased volume of gold would have the effect of stimulating production and increasing national wealth. They therefore concluded that an export surplus would make a country prosperous. They further reasoned that a trade deficit would eventually drain the kingdom of precious metals and thereby impoverish it.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 05, 2007
Are There Too Many US Dollar Bears? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
As a contrarian, it is my nature to worry when too many people start agreeing with me. Currently, many of my most vocal critics, who had previously ridiculed my warnings about the dollar, now concede that it will continue to decline. With so many people now on the bandwagon, some currency watchers have asserted that sentiment now has nowhere to go but up, and that the stage is set for a dollar rally. Although I am unnerved by the company, I take solace in the fact that the conclusions that many of these nouveau-dollar bears draw are completely off the mark.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 05, 2007
The Rush Out of the US Dollar - Watch These Key Currency Moves! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Last week, I said the U.S. dollar could get whacked by blows from both the Middle East and the Far East. I told you how Saudi Arabia was backing away from its allegiance to the greenback and that other countries throughout the Gulf — and Asia — could soon do the same thing.
Now, we're hearing even more rumblings from both fronts …
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Loss of Confidence in the US Dollar As it Crashes Towards USD 40! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Dollar Faith & Failed Trinity: Faith and confidence in the USDollar, in management of the US banking system, in the viability of the USEconomic structure, in the image of Wall Street honesty, and in the integrity of USGovt federal finances are all at historic lows. Repair seems close to impossible. The US Congress, the current presidential Administration, the USFederal Reserve, and the US Dept of Treasury together appear to be in the center of a grotesque policy failure morass. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 01, 2007
US Dollar Crash - Explosion in Currencies, Gold, Crude Oil, Food! Urgent Steps ... / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
The dollar's crash is now so fast and so severe, it's setting off nearly every other market on the planet: 
Foreign currencies are exploding!
The euro has just catapulted to 1.427, its seventh consecutive all-time record high.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 29, 2007
A Weaker US Dollar is Good for the United States and its Trading Situation - Economic Myth Busters / Economics / US Dollar
By: Andy_Sutton
Last week seemed an appropriate time to take a break. The big Fed ‘surprise' announcement resulted in most columnists dedicating their weekly missives either towards approval or condemnation of the action. Frankly, I am tired of the Fed, tired of the media spin on lower interest rates and the weaker dollar. It is the latter which compels me to pen this second volume of ‘Myth Busters'. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 28, 2007
A One-Two Punch for the US Dollar from the East / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The U.S. dollar index has just plunged to its lowest level of all time.
Back in 1992, its extreme intraday low was 78.19. Yesterday, it reached 78.16 – a historic event that signals a stronger and more imminent cascade of selling to hit the dollar from all sides.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Crouching Dollar, Golden Investment Opportunity! / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: The U.S. dollar is on a slippery slope — down more than 8% from its highs earlier this year and down 54% from its all-time highs.
Make no mistake: The fundamentals have not changed, and the buck probably has lower to go — perhaps much lower. Here's a quick summary of what's driving the greenback lower …
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 24, 2007
US Bonds Collapsing! Foreigners Abandoning the US Dollar! / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: If you thought the dollar's collapse would not affect you, think again! Here's what's happening:
First, U.S. bond prices are collapsing: In the two days after the Fed's rate cut, the price of the long-term Treasury bond plunged more than two and a half points, including the worst single-day plunge since September of 2003. This means bond yields, which move in the opposite direction, have surged.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 21, 2007
Bernanke and the Saudis Punish the US Dollar! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: With the dollar barely above an all-time low against a basket of the world's major currencies, two major events have now burst onto the scene, slamming it even further:
First, Ben Bernanke and his friends at the Federal Reserve decided to give the stock markets a generous gift, but in the process, have also decided to abandon any vestige of support for the U.S. dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
US Dollar Downtrend into March 2008 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Morning all, I have looked at the USD and there are many uncertainties about how things unfold. There are some clues presented that suggest the new course the USD is likely to ensue over the course of the next 2 years. The dollar failing to have any resistance on the path below 80 required acceptance that the USD was going below 80. If a triangle is still forming, it is going to have a descending angle to it, which poses very bearish upon its resolution (still mid to late 2009).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Intermarket Reactions to Fed: It All Starts With the US Interest Rate Cut / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
A lowering of the Fed Fund rate creates many short and long-term effects within the different markets. Though the easing is designed to stabilize the economy, in light of the sub-prime credit crunch, and prevent the U.S.A. from drifting into a recession, there is also a chain reaction that develops due to this decrease.
The strength of a currency in the world markets is largely dependent on the fundamental health of the country and the interest rate being offered. The more fiscally secure the country, generally the lower the rate. The opposite is also true. Financially weak countries require a higher rate of return to remain competitive against other currencies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
US Dollar Collapse Imminent - What's Under Your Mattress? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dudley_Baker
I'm not trying to get personal here, I don't' care about your magazines, or other objects you may keep under your mattress. But we ask, how frequently do you here someone say, ‘I'm going to put some dollars under my mattress for a ‘rainy day'? Well, readers, we have some ‘rainy days' coming and the question will not only be:
1. Do you have something under your mattress?
but, more importantly
2. What do you have under your mattress?