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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Santa Rally Closes at New Bull Market High, FTSE Above 6000

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Dec 24, 2010 - 04:49 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLondon's FTSE 100 Stocks Index closed at a new bull market high and above the 6000 level for the first time since June 2008, which followed the Dow's yesterday close at a new bull market high of 11,573.


FTSE BULL MARKET 2010

DOW BULL MARKET 2010

The mainstream press journalists and sales men that populate much of the internet remain as clueless as ever on the direction of the bull market for the fundamental fact that they have little if any experience of putting their own money on the line but instead busily write reams and reams of text that effectively succeeds in drowning out that 1% or so of useful published material.

2010 has been another year where after stocks had fallen (corrected) the mainstream press would herd like publish market calls (usually vague enough to backtrack on later) of celebrity media whores that spend more time in tv makeup rooms than sat at trading desks, that implied that it was time to SELL (though conveniently forgetting that they never told anyone to buy stocks in the first place). Typically stocks bear market resumption commentary would hinge on worthless reasoning such as the Hindenberg Crash Omen (22 Aug 2010 - The Hindenburg Stock Market Omen Doomed to Crash and Burn? ), that has yet again made an appearance in the mainstream press just as stocks were presenting yet another great bull market opportunity to accumulate, and as is the case with the present, AFTER stocks have soared its time for bullish commentary to be pumped out once more !

If it is not already clear. then it should be now that the MAINSTREAM MEDIA just prints / broadcasts what people WANT TO HEAR. When stocks are down its bearishness when stocks are up its bullishness, all of which is devoid of any actionable analysis.

In a BULL market investors BUY corrections and HEDGE overbought rallies. THEY DO NOT LIQUIDATE INVESTMENTS unless they a. doubt the trend or b. want to deploy their capital into another asset class.

I will be publishing a new ebook during early 2011 (March target) that will contain the REAL SECRETS of SUCCESSFUL TRADING, which will aim to SLICE through ALL OF THE B.S. and aims to KILL 99% Domestos style of all of the garbage out there in one fell swoop. As was the case with my last ebook (The Inflation Mega-Trend), I will be making this ebook available for FREE - The only requirement is a valid email address to receive the download url.

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Updates During 2010.

The Dow deviation from the forecast trend stands at about +200 points (1.7%) from the last in depth analysis (18 Oct 2010 - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Dow Trend Forecast into Jan 2011 ). Therefore the market continues to show relative strength that has propelled the Dow to a new bull market peak of 11,573 (The S&P has already made a new bull market high about 3 weeks ago). The larger picture is for the Dow to oscillate around the forecast trend path towards a mid January 2011 target of Dow 12,000.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market

2009 - Was the year for the birth of the stocks stealth bull market that saw stocks soar into year end from the March 2009 Lows (15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 ).

2010 - Was the year for market consolidation with an upward bias, which has repeatedly given the bears plenty of rope to hang themselves with. During 2010 I published 4 in depth stock market analysis of which the fourth (last) is illustrated above.

1.... 02 Feb 2010 - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast For 2010 - The Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook Page 82 (FREE DOWNLOAD)

Dow 10,067 - Stocks Multi-year Bull Market that bottomed in March 2009 will trend Sideways during first half of 2010 attempting to break higher. The second half will see a strong rally to above 12,000 targeting 12,500 during late 2010.

DOW Stock Market Forecast 2010

2... 23 Mar 2010 - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast Into May 2010

Dow (DJIA) March to May Stock Market Trend Forecast Conclusion - Therefore my specific conclusion is for a continuation of the uptrend into early to mid May, achieving the 12,000 target during this time period, also allowing for a correction during April.

3... 16 May 2010 - Stocks Bull Market Hits Eurozone Debt Crisis Brick Wall, Forecast Into July 2010

This correction could last for several months and may extend all the way into early October, which suggests that the next 2 months are going to see an ABC correction to be followed by a sideways price action between the extremes of 10,900 to 9,800 and so despite continuing wild gyrations I would not be surprised if the Dow is little changed from its last closing price of 10,620 in 2 months time (16th July 2010). Expectations remain for the bull market to resume its trend towards a target of between 12k to 12.5k by late 2010 after the tumultuous trading period over the next few weeks. I have tried to illustrate a more precise Dow forecast projection in the below graph, reality will probably end up being far more volatile.

2011 - The big picture is that of a multi-year stocks bull market that will complete its second full year in March 2011. The starting point for 2011 would be for this years percentage move plus 5%, so if the Dow ends the year up 10% then that would convert to a minimum 2011 target of 13,400, which would be within 700 points (5%) of the Dow's all time high that would be achievable during a strong 2011 bull run. The last in depth analysis projects a bullish trend into a mid Jan peak which therefore is expected to resolve in a correction details of which will follow an in-depth analysis due mid Jan 2011 to cover the first few months of 2011.

To receive all of my in depth analysis and forecasts in your email in box ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE NEWSLETTER.

Comments and Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25235.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 24 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Pat
28 Dec 10, 10:12
stocks

Hi Nadeem

Thank you for your analysis. It's always great to see someone get predictions correct for once! What do you make of the rally for the last month or so? Do you look at sentiment indicators? They are all saying the market is overbought and that everyone is too bullish. Despite that, the market just keeps grinding higher. Is this a case of manipulation or are people really that bullish on stocks? As I'm sure you know, the blogosphere (and not just the perma bear ones) are all calling for a correction of some variety imminently. How do you feel about it?

Thanks


Paul radcliffe
03 Jan 11, 07:47
Stock Market Bull or bear

Firts I must thank you for your insightful analyses - I have been reading and following them for ages now.

I caught this in today's press, and I wonder if you have any commenst to make (the journaklist writing the articel obviously holds this guy in high respect)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/03/albert-edwards-socgen-bear

Many thanks

Paul


Nadeem_Walayat
04 Jan 11, 00:57
mainstream Press

I stopped reading the maintream press decades ago, it is 99% garbage.

If you want to follow Albert Edwards, then look at what he said would happen for 2010 and 2009 and then draw your own conclusions,

Best,

NW


Paul Radcliffe
04 Jan 11, 05:48
mainstram press

Thanks NW - I'll do that.

looking forward to your next update - scary times!

P


Eric
20 Jan 11, 20:37
Dow Update

Hi Nadeem -

We've now passed the mid-Jan time horizon, with some signs the Dow could be stalling shy of 12,000. Do you think we are due for a small correction in equities here? With all the positive earnings numbers, I'm a bit surprised that it hasn't even tested 12,000 or even 12,500 yet.

Gold seems to be correcting - at sub 1350 is it an opportunity to scale back into a long or is it a sit back and wait?

The China and Brazil interest rate rises seem to be weighing on the markets. China in particular has seemed to lag behind, and underperformed last year (especially relative to Brazil). Is this the year for China to lead or will the threat of rate rises continue to dampen their equity valuations (and potentially commodities as well?) ?

thanks again for your candid views

Eric


Nadeem_Walayat
20 Jan 11, 21:04
Gold - Silver

I exited my gold and silver over a month ago in prep for a sterling rally.

I will do a quick interim update on the dow this weekend, my main focus is Interest rates (following on from Inflation analysis).

Best

NW


Pablo
25 Jan 11, 07:12
USD

Hi Nadeem,

what's your opinion about USD in 2011?


Nadeem_Walayat
26 Jan 11, 18:44
USD Dollar Forecast
Hi

My last indepth analysis of October 2010 forecast a volatile downtrend to 69-70 by Mid 2011, which still stands. (12 Oct 2010 - USD Index Trend Forecast Into Mid 2011, U.S. Dollar Collapse (Again)? )

NW


Chad
27 Jan 11, 20:30
Baltic dry index

NW,

Please provide some insight on the Baltic Dry Index. It seems the U.S. Markets have gotten way ahead of themselves. Also, it appears there is a dramatic divergence between thd bdi and spx. Thoughts?


Nadeem_Walayat
28 Jan 11, 01:29
BDI

I trade the Dow, thats my focus, I don't trade the BDI, so what it does is inconsquential.

The mistake many make is focusing on indicators, and other markets which will end up confusing them when they try to trade the stock market indices.

If one had focused on the BDI then you are right they would probably have shorted stocks instead of being long and lost a lot of money and be confused as to why, afterall the BDI is down.

Best

NW


Eric Kho
23 Mar 11, 19:26
Commodity spectrum: gold vs oil vs agriculture

Hi Nadeem -

I know you are busy preparing your latest in depth stock market update, but some issues I'd love to hear your opinion on. I assume that at least a few of these issues will be covered in your update, so I am more than happy to wait to read that release.

Commodity spectrum: gold vs oil vs agriculture.

- I've personally shifted much more heavily into oil this year, am considering increasing my agriculture exposure and decreasing my gold position. I just feel like energy and agriculture have underperformed the last couple of years, whereas the gold run is running out of steam?

- Assuming you consider the agricultural (corn, wheat in particular) spectrum worth exploring, which agriculture stocks/ETF's would you recommend?

Natural Gas

- I feel natural gas has underperformed based on short term fundamentals (tons of supply). But given the nuclear debate revival and skyrocketing oil prices, could this be the big breakout year for natgas?

Japan rebuilding story:

- equities - has the bad news been priced in, and is it time to buy?

- JPY. It seems like the USD/JPY would be a good long term buy at these levels. With all the stimulus being pumped in, shouldn't the JPY depreciate on a relative basis?

Dow (I'm sure you're going to tackle this point, but these are the questions I would have)

- are we looking at a correction to 11250 or lower? I imagine the market will at least retest the retest 11500 panic sell low, but is this a matter of buy at that level if it reaches or could we be in for an even bigger correction lower?

- Has anything occurred to change your medium term bullish outlook?

Treasury

- How do you play a Treasury bond bubble collapse? Long equities?

regards,

Eric


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