Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Boris Johnson Hits Coronavirus Panic Button Again, UK Accelertoing Covid-19 Second Wave - 25th Sep 20
Precious Metals Trading Range Doing It’s Job to Confound Bulls and Bears Alike - 25th Sep 20
Gold and Silver Are Still Locked and Loaded… Don't be Out of Ammo - 25th Sep 20
Throwing the golden baby out with the covid bath water - Gold Wins - 25th Sep 20
A Look at the Perilous Psychology of Financial Market Bubbles - 25th Sep 20
Corona Strikes Back In Europe. Will It Boost Gold? - 25th Sep 20
How to Boost the Value of Your Home - 25th Sep 20
Key Time For Stock Markets: Bears Step Up or V-Shaped Bounce - 24th Sep 20
Five ways to recover the day after a good workout - 24th Sep 20
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels - 23rd Sep 20
Beware of These Faulty “Inflation Protected” Investments - 23rd Sep 20
What’s Behind Dollar USDX Breakout? - 23rd Sep 20
Still More Room To Stock Market Downside In The Coming Weeks - 23rd Sep 20
Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher - 23rd Sep 20
Key Gold Ratios to Other Markets - 23rd Sep 20
Watch Before Upgrading / Buying RTX 3000, RDNA2 - CPU vs GPU Bottlenecks - 23rd Sep 20
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for Week Starting 24th Jan

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Jan 22, 2011 - 01:56 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US markets closed out the week with their first weekly decline on friday, after seven consecutive weekly gains. Economic reports were good: seven up, three down, and one flat. Year end earnings reports, thus far, have been better than expected. On the economic front the NY FED, building permits, existing homes sales, leading indicators, weekly jobless claims, the monetary base and the WLEI all improved. Housing starts, the Philly FED and the M1-multiplier was down, while the NAHB housing index remained flat. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.4%. Asian markets were mostly lower -1.3%, European markets were mixed +0.8%, the Commodity equity group was mixed -1.1%, and the DJ World index was -0.8%. Bonds were -0.6%, Crude slid 3.2%, Gold lost 1.2%, and the USD declined 1.2%. Next week the FED concludes its two day FOMC meeting on wednesday, two days before the Q4 GDP report on friday.


LONG TERM: bull market

This week the SPX/DOW/NDX/NAZ all made new bull markets highs. In fact, the NDX has already exceeded its 2007 high by 4.2%. Growth stocks have clearly been the leaders during this 22 month bull market. Our long term wave count continues to unfold as expected. The bear market ended in Mar09 at SPX 667. Five Major waves then unfolded to conclude Primary wave I at SPX 1220 in Apr10. This was followed by a Primary wave II correction to SPX 1011 by July10. After that the market embarked on a six month Major wave 1 uptrend to kick off Primary wave III. Typically during bull markets each uptrend makes new bull market highs, and that is exactly what has transpired for nearly two years now. Primary wave III will also consist on five Major waves just like Primary wave I. We’re expecting Primary wave III to top this year above SPX 1500. This will then be followed by a significant Primary wave IV correction into the fourth quarter, and then, Primary wave V and the bull market should conclude early next year. Still lots to go on the upside in this bull market.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped at SPX 1296

After the Primary wave II low in early July at SPX 1011 the market embarked on a lengthy six month uptrend (wave). We anticipated in September this wave would last about six months based upon the characteristics this bull market had displayed thus far. Each bull/bear market has its own characteristics. Our September projection was for the SPX to hit the OEW 1313 pivot in Jan11. This is still possible. http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/09/26/spx-bull-market-projection/.

During this Major wave 1 uptrend we have counted five Intermediate waves: Int. 1 SPX 1129, Int. 2 SPX 1040, Int. 3 SPX 1227, Int. 4 SPX 1173, and Int. 5 SPX 1296 thus far. Since Int. wave 3 is longer than Int. wave 1, Int. wave 5 can continue to extend with no change in this uptrend count. At the SPX 1296 high the market ran into two clusters of resistance. First, the fibonacci cluster between SPX 1289 and 1306. This was detailed in last weekend’s report. Second, the OEW pivot cluster 1291, 1303 and 1313. This is quite a heavy resistance area to penetrate, especially after a six month uptrend. We remain cautious medium term on the stock market.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX is at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1291 and then 1303. Short term momentum spiked to slightly overbought on friday morning then pulled back to neutral at the close. We have been counting this last rally, Int. wave five from SPX 1173, as a potentially completed five Minor wave structure: Minor wave 1 SPX 1247, Minor 2 SPX 1233, Minor 3 SPX 1278, Minor 4 SPX 1262, and Minor 5 SPX 1296. Based upon the wave structure there is still a possibility for the SPX to rise to 1307 before this short term count would become invalid. We can also count five Minute waves up from the Minor wave 4 low at SPX 1262: Minute 1 SPX 1277, Minute 2 SPX 1270, Minute 3 SPX 1287, Minute 4 SPX 1280 and Minute 5 SPX 1296. This count also allows, with an extension, a possible rally to SPX 1307.

After the SPX 1296 high, however, the market had the largest pullback of all of Int. wave five. This 25 point pullback was much larger than the four previous pullbacks between 13 and 16 points. This clearly is not a good sign going forward medium term. Also, we currently have negative RSI divergences on the hourly/daily charts and a weakening MACD. The NYAD (market breadth) is also displaying a negative RSI divergence on its daily chart. In other areas the technicals do not look bad at all. All nine SPX sectors remain in uptrends, and only two of the fifteen world markets we track are in confirmed downtrends.

The short term OEW charts are at neutral with the SPX closing just under short term support at 1284. More important support is at the 1262, 1240 and 1222 OEW pivots. A decline to the 1262 pivot, and lower, would probably generate a downtrend confirmation. Support for a Major wave 2 correction would be at the OEW pivot cluster of 1168, 1176 and 1187. This is also in the area of the EW support of Int. wave four (SPX 1173). If this market can recapture the 1291 pivot by closing above it, a rally into the 1303 and 1313 pivots is then possible. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly lower (-1.3%) on the week with only the downtrending BSE registering a gain (+0.8%). China’s SSEC is also downtrending.

European markets were mixed on the week but averaged a gain of 0.8% due to the 4.3% rally in the IBEX. All five indices are in uptrends.

The Commodity equity group was mixed on the week for a net loss of 1.1%. All uptrends here as well.

The uptrending DJ World index lost 0.8% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds were -0.6% on the week as their downtrend continues. For a few weeks it looked like 10/30 YR yields had topped for this uptrend. This week the 30YR hit a new high, while the 10YR has been consolidating at high levels for several weeks. Looks like more weakness ahead for the bond market.

Crude remained volatile as always losing 3.2% on the week. Its five month uptrend displays a negative RSI divergence on both the daily and weekly charts at recent highs. The downtrending USD appears to be the only factor keeping it from entering a correction.

Gold continued its downtrend losing 1.2% on the week. Both Gold and Silver are in confirmed downtrends after six month uptrends and new bull market highs. The wave patterns suggest the correction will end in February between $1265 and $1315 for Gold, and about $23 and $25 for Silver. Then a new uptrend should unfold taking them both to new bull market highs into the spring. Gold has been in a long term uptrend for nine years, soon to be ten, and on its way to thirteen.

The USD (-1.2%) continues to vacillate from uptrend to downtrend every several weeks. This has been ongoing since the five month downtrend low in early November. The EUR (+1.8%) has been doing the same thing, only in the opposite direction of course. Other currencies, i.e. AUD, CAD, CHF, GBP and JPY have been trending with much more consistently.

NEXT WEEK

FOMC week, in recent years, is always an important one for the equity markets. Trend continuations or reversals often occur during this week. The FED meets on tuesday/wednesday with a statement around 2:00 wednesday. Tuesday also kicks off the economic week with Case-Shiller, the FHFA housing index and Consumer confidence. On wednesday New home sales will be reported. Thursday offers the weekly Jobless claims, Durable goods and Pending home sales. Then on friday, Q4 GDP est. at +3.8% and Consumer confidence. Enjoy your weekend/week.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2011 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules