Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report 27th Jan 2007

Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Jan 27, 2007 - 12:22 PM GMT

By: Mike_Burk

Stock-Markets

The good news is:
Since 1887 (120 years) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 70% of the time in the coming week (the last 3 trading days of January and the first 2 days of February) during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle (next week).

Short Term
Most of the short term indicators are at or near neutral and showing a very modest positive bias. I cannot draw conclusions from them.


Intermediate term
The intermediate term indicators are not much better.

The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in red Summation Indices (SI) for advances - declines (AD) in blue, new highs - new lows (HL) in blue and upside - downside volume (UD) in grey.

SI's are running total of oscillators so when the oscillator is above 0 the SI moves upward and when it is below 0 the SI moves downward.

The HL SI had a lower low earlier in the month so you could call its bias modestly positive, the UD SI has been decidedly negative and the AD SI has been slightly negative. There is nothing decisive here.

seasonal chart

Seasonality
Next week includes the last 3 trading days of January and the first 2 days of February during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle.

In the tables below, OTC data covers the period from 1963 - 2003 and S&P 500 (SPX) data from 1931 - 2003 during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle. There are summaries for both the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined beginning with 1963 for the OTC and 1928 for the SPX.

Next week has been a strong week. The OTC has been up 73% of the time since 1963 and the SPX up 79% of the time. The 3rd year is stronger than the averages for all years which are also very positive. Over all years the OTC has been up 64% of the time and the SPX 75% of the time.

Last 3 days of January and first 2 days of February.
The number following the year represents its position in the presidential cycle.
The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;
1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.

OTC Presidential Year 3
Day3 Day2 Day1 Day1 Day2 Totals
1963-3 -0.03% 3 -0.48% 4 0.45% 5 -0.42% 1 0.00% 0 -0.48%
1967-3 0.02% 5 0.49% 1 0.37% 2 0.26% 3 0.19% 4 1.34%
1971-3 -0.29% 3 -0.47% 4 0.91% 5 -0.06% 1 0.93% 2 1.02%
1975-3 1.71% 3 -0.13% 4 1.15% 5 1.36% 1 -0.85% 2 3.24%
1979-3 -0.21% 1 -0.21% 2 -0.55% 3 -0.05% 4 0.05% 5 -0.96%
1983-3 1.66% 4 0.61% 5 0.58% 1 -0.08% 2 0.05% 3 2.81%
Avg 0.58% 0.06% 0.49% 0.29% 0.07% 1.49%
1987-3 0.33% 3 -0.27% 4 1.04% 5 0.54% 1 0.55% 2 2.19%
1991-3 0.96% 2 1.98% 3 1.39% 4 0.84% 5 1.70% 1 6.87%
1995-3 0.18% 5 -0.93% 1 0.45% 2 0.41% 3 0.70% 4 0.81%
1999-3 -1.10% 3 2.93% 4 1.15% 5 0.17% 1 -1.86% 2 1.30%
2003-3 1.18% 3 -2.63% 4 -0.11% 5 0.22% 1 -1.33% 2 -2.67%
Avg 0.31% 0.21% 0.79% 0.44% -0.05% 1.70%
OTC summary for Presidential Year 3 1963 - 2003
Averages 0.40% 0.08% 0.62% 0.29% 0.01% 1.41%
% Winners 64% 36% 82% 64% 64% 73%
MDD 2/4/2003 3.82% -- 2/2/1999 1.86% -- 2/1/1979 1.01%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2006
Averages 0.06% 0.09% 0.31% 0.16% -0.07% 0.53%
% Winners 58% 59% 67% 64% 70% 64%
MDD 2/2/2001 6.27% -- 2/3/1970 5.82% -- 2/4/2002 4.55%
SPX Presidential Year 3
Day3 Day2 Day1 Day1 Day2 Totals
1931-3 0.94% 4 0.12% 5 -0.62% 6 0.44% 1 0.50% 2 1.37%
1935-3 -0.99% 2 0.56% 3 0.78% 4 -0.55% 5 0.44% 6 0.23%
1939-3 -0.42% 6 2.96% 1 1.15% 2 -1.46% 3 2.15% 4 4.38%
1943-3 0.10% 4 0.87% 5 0.29% 6 0.48% 1 0.00% 2 1.73%
1947-3 1.16% 3 -0.32% 4 0.38% 5 0.51% 6 0.38% 1 2.12%
1951-3 0.65% 1 0.32% 2 -0.37% 3 0.51% 4 0.87% 5 1.99%
1955-3 0.11% 4 0.56% 5 1.22% 1 0.25% 2 -0.30% 3 1.83%
1959-3 -1.11% 3 0.07% 4 0.40% 5 -0.38% 1 0.13% 2 -0.89%
1963-3 -0.02% 2 -0.57% 3 0.53% 4 0.17% 5 -0.21% 1 -0.10%
Avg 0.16% 0.01% 0.43% 0.21% 0.17% 0.99%
1967-3 0.41% 5 0.58% 1 -0.06% 2 -0.21% 3 0.35% 4 1.07%
1971-3 -0.73% 3 0.34% 4 0.70% 5 0.56% 1 0.01% 2 0.88%
1975-3 1.62% 3 -1.36% 4 1.01% 5 1.09% 1 -0.27% 2 2.09%
1979-3 -0.30% 1 -0.49% 2 -1.11% 3 0.03% 4 -0.46% 5 -2.34%
1983-3 1.93% 4 0.17% 5 0.55% 1 -1.61% 2 0.19% 3 1.22%
Avg 0.58% -0.15% 0.22% -0.03% -0.04% 0.59%
1987-3 0.60% 3 -0.42% 4 -0.06% 5 0.86% 1 -0.17% 2 0.82%
1991-3 -0.06% 2 1.51% 3 0.89% 4 -0.26% 5 1.54% 1 3.63%
1995-3 0.44% 5 -0.40% 1 0.41% 2 0.00% 3 0.51% 4 0.95%
1999-3 -0.73% 3 1.79% 4 1.12% 5 -0.52% 1 -0.86% 2 0.80%
2003-3 0.68% 3 -2.28% 4 1.31% 5 0.54% 1 -1.41% 2 -1.16%
Avg 0.19% 0.04% 0.73% 0.13% -0.08% 1.01%
SPX summary for Presidential Year 3
Averages 0.22% 0.21% 0.45% 0.02% 0.18% 1.09%
% Winners 58% 63% 74% 58% 58% 79%
MDD 2/2/1979 2.32% -- 1/30/2003 2.28% -- 2/1/1983 1.61%
SPX summary for all years 1928 - 2006
Averages -0.03% 0.25% 0.15% -0.18% 0.01% 0.19%
% Winners 55% 75% 70% 60% 55% 75%
MDD 2/2/1933 6.96% -- 2/3/1941 4.51% -- 2/2/1981 3.21%

 

Conclusion
Most of the technical indicators are direction free. Seasonally the period has been quite strong, but seasonal influences have not had much effect on the market recently. For example, last week the S&P was down for only the 2nd time since 1953 while the mid and small cap indices were up. Right now, there is little to go on but seasonality which has been positive.

I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday February 2 than they were on Friday January 26.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends. They can sign up at: http://alphaim.net/signup.html . If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

Last week the major indices were split, the blue chip indices were down slightly while the small cap indices were up so I am calling last weeks positive forecast a tie.

By Mike Burke

Mike Burk is an employee and principle of Alpha Investment Management (Alpha) a registered investment advisor. Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy. The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. To subscribe to this report : http://alphaim.net/signup.html


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in