Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Investing in the METAVERSE Stocks Universe - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Expect 15-20% Returns For 2022 - 8th Dec 21
US Dollar Still Has the Green Light - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Topping Process Roadmap - 8th Dec 21
The Lithium Breakthrough That Could Transform The Mining Industry - 8th Dec 21
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse - 7th Dec 21
How to Read Your Smart Meter - Economy 7, Day and Night Rate Readings SMETS2 EDF - 7th Dec 21
For Profit or for Loss: 4 Tips for Selling ASX Shares - 7th Dec 21
INTEL Bargain Teck Stocks Trading at 15.5% Discount Sale - 7th Dec 21
US Bonds Yield Curve is not currently an inflationist’s friend - 7th Dec 21
Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Stock Market INDU & TRAN Rally - 7th Dec 21
The New Tech That Could Take Tesla To $2 Trillion - 7th Dec 21
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? - 6th Dec 21
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time - 6th Dec 21
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! - 6th Dec 21
How Stock Investors Can Cash in on President Biden’s new Climate Plan - 6th Dec 21
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive - 6th Dec 21
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The U.N. Goes to War for Libyan Oil

Politics / New World Order Mar 22, 2011 - 08:09 AM GMT

By: Michael_S_Rozeff

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe civil war in Libya is now a new war: the Libyan War. This new war began when the West and/or the U.N. joined the war and escalated it. NATO may be coming aboard too.

The U.N., that supposed instrument of international peace and security, has escalated a civil war into an international war. If the principle it has invoked in doing so stands, which is a supposed humanitarian one, then we face perpetual war, for there are and will be hundreds of civil conflicts within nation-states that are no different than the one in Libya.


Since the nation-state is organized along territorial lines, any secession movement or any movement to disavow a standing government leads to civil disagreement, disputes, and conflicts.

I haven’t yet seen anyone who could forecast the course of a war in much detail. I know I cannot. It’s not impossible to say some general things accurately. It was probably reasonably clear that the Allies would beat Germany once the U.S. came into it in World War II, for example. The entry of the Chinese into the Korean War was not expected by MacArthur. Bush and his gang didn’t foresee the Iraq entanglement at all. Afghanistan is one large pit of improvisations, blunders and entanglements, not to mention civilian killings and casualties. It was easy to forecast an American "win" in Granada in 1983. The Vietnam War saw an incredible array of wrong forecasts and outright lies. Yes, there are always some insightful people who see what lies ahead, but it’s very hard to know at the time that their judgments are better than those of the people who are making the wrong forecasts.

With that as an introduction, here are some thoughts on Libya that are crossing my mind today for what they are worth.

First, the war is likely to grow in scope. Wars do that. It is likely to grow in military scope and it is likely to grow in its political and economic fallout as well. There are going to be ramifications that are now unforeseen and unintended.

Second, I think that the West is lying when it says it didn’t target Gaddafi personally. A missile landed on his compound, didn’t it? They could say it’s a command center, but it all comes down to the same thing. They’d be happy to see him dead. They’ll keep trying.

Third, air power doesn’t win wars. That’s my takeaway from all I’ve ever seen or read about it. The exception may be the A-bombs dropped on Japan, but no one is about to drop H-bombs today without looking like the bad guy and losing all moral authority. So, when some general or some politician starts talking about "winning" in Libya, or needing more air strikes, I discount it. For example, Britain’s Foreign Secretary, William Hague, is quoted as saying that the attacks won’t stop until Gaddafi observes a real cease fire. He assumes that air power can make Gaddafi stop his ground attacks. Maybe, but there’s a high likelihood that they cannot and won’t. I know the technology has changed and the air attacks are more targeted today than in past wars, but the technology on the ground also advances to avoid being targeted. With Iraq and Afghanistan as guidelines, it looks as if it’s going to take a helluva lot of destruction going on for a long time to make Gaddafi capitulate, and while that happens the civilian population is going to be getting killed and suffering. Look what America did to Iraq and how many innocents Clinton killed.

Fourth, there is going to be increased blowback and retaliation by both Gaddafi and any other Arab elements elsewhere that interpret this attack as an attack on Arab lands or Arab religions or Arab peoples in general. They will fight back with whatever weapons they have, including terrorism in Europe and the U.S. When this occurs, this attack on Libya is going to cause the authorities in the West to ramp up their own anti-terror efforts in their countries and turn them even more into police states.

Fifth, countries all over the world that see how Libya is being dismantled at the will of the West and the U.N. are going to look for ways to arm themselves better than in the past, even to getting nuclear weapons as a deterrent to such domination. This war will intensify the procurement of arms and weapons of mass destruction.

Sixth, anyone can see that this has not been done for humanitarian reasons, but to take sides. Britain has reverted to its colonialist mindset and so have France and Italy. Other countries know that this is about controlling the oil and having pliant regimes in places where there is oil. The moral stature or moral leadership of the West is going to go down because of this. This is not to say that those who abstained in the U.N. vote are looking good. China or Russia could have vetoed the resolution if they had had any guts, but they didn’t.

Seventh, there are going to be and already are some voices of relative moderation among U.S. politicians. Obama is trying to walk a line between the most bloodthirsty hawks and the more reluctant hawks (and occasional dove). He acts as if he had to do this. So does Hillary. They are only saying that they are feeling the resource pinch of making another war to preserve the Empire. Their regrets are the regrets of people who discover that running an Empire is not a free lunch. They face constraints like everyone else does. They cannot do everything they’d like to do. Everything costs. They are going to have to give up something in order to make war in Libya. The costs of controlling events and other lands are non-trivial. Their public expressions of regret are not humanitarian in nature. They are simply finding the job tougher than they had supposed.

Eighth, the structure of law is further undermined by this war. There is no declaration of war by Congress. Instead the war is generated by a vote through the U.N. This further trashes the U.S. Constitution, as if it needed any more trashing. It elevates power above law, or transmutes power into law. Any real law is demoted or disappears altogether.

Ninth, those in the West and in the Arab League who joined this civil war, in effect starting a new war of their own that I call the Libyan War, are already dividing one from another. Each has its own political and economic objectives. The objectives of this war are already clouded. No one in the West really knows why it is being conducted or can state clearly what circumstances will bring the war to a close. When there is no declaration of war or only a vaguely-worded U.N. statement that fails to present clear objectives, this is one of the outcomes.

Tenth, I have the suspicion or expectation that the air attacks will induce Gaddafi to adopt tactics on the ground that are even more deadly to anyone who stands in his way. If he is killed, some new colonel is likely to step up in his place. Libya could be at war for quite some time.

This all suggests to me that the West will introduce ground forces into Libya.

The West, under the umbrella of the American Empire, wants to control the oil. This makes them, particularly the U.S., face constant trouble spots of their own making. If they sat back passively and bought oil on the world market, this would not happen. The oil suppliers have to sell as much as the buyers have to buy.

This goal – oil control – is a gigantic error. It is done to protect oil companies, oil concessions, and investment in oil facilities. But why should these have the protection of the government, paid for by taxpayers? Every one of us depends critically on many things (water, food, clothing) but we do not attempt to control the suppliers. Instead we use inventories and alternative suppliers to reduce the risks of outages. Instead we develop peaceful commercial relations. Instead we build up a history of trust.

The West also wants control so as to assure supplies to the West’s military. For what purpose? So that it can be on call all over the world? If the U.S. had an appropriate defensive policy, the need for oil to oil the military machine would diminish considerably.

The West also wants control so that oil interruption cannot be used as a weapon against Western policies that oil suppliers dislike. This is just another way of saying that the West wants its policies to go through and will go to great lengths to brook no interference from those who may object. Is such dominance an appropriate policy for the U.S. government

Michael S. Rozeff [send him mail] is a retired Professor of Finance living in East Amherst, New York. He is the author of the free e-book Essays on American Empire.

http://www.lewrockwell.com

    © 2011 Copyright Michael S. Rozeff - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in