Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20
The Growing Weaponization of Space - 14th Feb 20
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? - 14th Feb 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days - 14th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 - 14th Feb 20
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold - 14th Feb 20
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets - 14th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - 13th Feb 20
Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review - 13th Feb 20
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow - 13th Feb 20
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession - 13th Feb 20
PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… - 13th Feb 20
Bitcoin: "Is it too late to get in?" Get Answers Now - 13th Feb 20
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 - 13th Feb 20
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? - 13th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections, Africa and South America Hidden Outbreaks - 12th Feb 20
Will USD X Decline About to Trigger Precious Metals Rally - 12th Feb 20
Copper Market is a Coiled Spring - 12th Feb 20
Dow Theory Stock Market Warning from the Utilities Index - 12th Feb 20
How to Get Virgin Media Engineers to FIX Hub 3.0 Problems and NOT BS Customers - 12th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections by 66% Due to Capacity Constraints - 12th Feb 20
Is Coronavirus the Black Swan That Takes Gold To-Da-Moon? - 12th Feb 20
Stock Market 2020 – A Close Look At What To Expect - 12th Feb 20
IBM AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 11th Feb 20
The US Dollar’s Subtle Message for Gold - 11th Feb 20
What All To Do Before Opening A Bank Account For Your Business - 11th Feb 20
How and When to Enter Day Trades & Swing Trade For Maximum Gains - 11th Feb 20
The Great Stock Market Dichotomy - 11th Feb 20
Stock Market Sector Rotation Should Peak Within 60+ Days – Part II - 11th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Stocks Bear Market Risk 2020? - Video - 11th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Summer Rally Arrived On Schedule!

Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends Jul 02, 2011 - 03:42 AM GMT

By: Sy_Harding

Stock-Markets

It’s remarkable how consistently the market moves in seasonal patterns.

For example, it tends to make most of its gains in the winter months and experience most of its corrections in the summer months, as expressed in the old adage ‘Sell in May and Go Away’.


And just as it did last year, this year the market made good gains in the winter months, then topped out in late April, and was in a correction in May and most of June.

The shorter-term seasonal pattern is that the market is usually positive in the days surrounding the end of months, in what I have always called the ‘monthly strength period’, and particularly in the days approaching and surrounding the July 4th holiday. July also tends to be the most positive month in the market’s unfavorable summer season. Thus the tradition of a summer rally.

After being down eight of the previous nine weeks the market was short-term oversold going into this week. My technical indicators triggered a short-term buy signal and I’ve been predicting a brief short-term rally off the oversold condition, but also that the tendency for the market to be positive in the days surrounding the July 4th holiday, was likely to keep an oversold rally going into a sustained rally for awhile.

It’s uncanny how events usually work out with a timeliness that supports the seasonal patterns. The seemingly endless stream of dismal economic reports continued this week, but a couple of bright spots also showed up.

There was relief that the Greek Parliament passed the painful austerity measures required for Greece to receive additional bailout funds to prevent it from defaulting on its debt (or at least postpone its potential default). The rally got an additional boost from that.

And although economic reports included that construction spending fell again in May, that Consumer Confidence fell again in June (to a 7-month low), that weekly unemployment claims remained high at 428,000 last week, there was also the report that manufacturing activity, which has been declining for several months, unexpectedly picked up some in June, with the ISM Mfg Index rising to 55.3 from 53.5 in May. That gave the market another big boost on Friday.

The ‘monthly strength period’ is due to continue through Thursday of next week.

But it’s not just seasonality that says the rally is probably only a short-term summer rally, with the correction likely to resume to lower lows when the rally ends.

Technically, volume in the rally is very light, less than 0.8 billion shares traded daily on the NYSE, compared to as many as 1.6 billion on the down-days during the correction. That indicates that large institutional investors selling during the correction, are not believers in the sustainability of the rally and are not participating.

Also technically, the unusual spike-up of the last five days has the major indexes already short-term overbought above their 21-day moving averages, the opposite of their short-term oversold condition two weeks ago.

On the economic fundamentals, another bailout of Greece, and a one-month bump in the ISM Mfg Index are hardly an indication that the economic slowdown has ended, given the continuing dismal reports on consumer spending, consumer and business confidence, the depressed housing industry, and the jobs picture.

So enjoy the rally. It arrived on schedule.

But be careful about determining too quickly that it marks an important bottom or the end of the global economic problems.

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp, publishers of the financial website www.StreetSmartReport.com, and the free daily market blog, www.SyHardingblog.com.

© 2011 Copyright Sy Harding- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules