Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

FTSE 100 Index UK Stock Market Forecast Into End December 2007

Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market Dec 16, 2007 - 10:47 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhilst focusing primarily on the US stock markets during the past 2 to 3 months i.e. Dow Jones and S&P Index, the other western markets have been expected to follow the same or very similar trends which includes the UK's FTSE 100 Index. A recap of the anticipated trend has been for a rally into early October 2007, followed by a corrective decline into November and a strong rally into the new year to new highs for the year. The details of this analysis are contained within the archives. Accompanied by the scenario for the relative under performance of the asian markets as of late October and into the new year, which continues to be borne out by actual price action.


Now having had Up move A into early October, and the Corrective Down move B, the expectation has been for a strong end of year rally to New highs, this was pretty much on track until this weeks plethora of news around interest rates and concerted central bank intervention that knocked the western stock markets off track.

Therefore this analysis is an up date on current expectations for the FTSE 100 Index (which is applicable to other western main general sector indices) to see if the scenario of an the end of year rally continuing remains intact. I will try not to look further out as I will be preparing long-term outlooks for numerous markets for 2008 during the next two weeks.

Current FTSE technical picture

The FTSE bottomed at 6027 on 22nd November, which was above the important support zone of between 5950 and 6020, which implied that the next upswing with be impulse in nature and thus target a new high for the bull market inline with the end of year rally scenario.

The 6027 low was followed by a powerful up move through 50% resistance of the decline from 6751, this was in confirmation of the bullish trend into the end of the year which was the focus of the existing scenario.

Last week we saw the up trend correct lower, on Friday the correction held above the 50% of the advance at 6320, a sign that at this time confirms the minor downswing as corrective in nature.

Time wise the upswing is barely up 3 weeks, whereas impulse upswings usually extend into at least two months, this supports the view that the current upswing has further time to the upside.

The MACD has risen from an oversold state and is nowhere near achieving an overbought state again confirming further upside action.

Where to Next for the FTSE 100 Index

As far as i am concerned and as per the above analysis, the FTSE has not done anything so far to suggest that it is at the end to the now approaching 5 year bull market. Without getting sucked into a longer term analysis at this point, all I will say is that yes the broader pattern suggests a tougher period ahead for the FTSE, but the up trend remains intact.

To be frank, I don't go looking for ends to bull markets in stocks for if I did I would NEVER! be invested!. At best an investor can hope for is to take account of warning signs to reduce exposure to sectors which do look like are going to take a hit as happened with the financial's sector earlier on the year.

So I am sticking with the scenario of a strong rally into the end of the year, and to refine that further to say that the rally is likely to extend someway into January 2008, as the up trend inline with recent price action will be volatile.

As to will FTSE break above 6750 by year end, about 9 trading days ? That does look unlikely with the FTSE at 6397. Fridays big drop in the Dow of some 180 points will hit the FTSE on Monday so Monday will be a strong down day. Therefore we can scratch Monday from the 9 days. Tuesday another possible weak day which would just leave 7 days to achieve a rally of possibly 450 points or more! That's not going to happen !. Therefore more likely a move to between 6600 and 6650 by year end is likely.

Also, watch out for a string of forecast / scenarios for 2008 on a range of markets in the lead up to the new year as well as comparison against what happened to last years forecasts viewable at my archive.

In Summary

Expectations are for the FTSE 100 Index to resume its up trend during the coming week, the start of the week will be weak!, how weak its difficult to say perhaps see the FTSE trade down to 6320 or off a about 80 points from Friday. The rally is expected to extend well into January 2008 from the November 6027 low. My best guess for where the FTSE will close on 31st December 2007 is at 6640.

Also I enjoy your emails and comments, does not matter if you strongly disagree with me :) so feel free to write / post your comments to this article.

Your analyst delivering a happy Yule Tide bullish stock market analysis, ho ho ho :). Apologies to the bears, your present may arrive after Christmas in the analysis for 2008, or if I turn out to be completely wrong :)

By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright (c) 2005-07
Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 100 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in