Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Friday Stock Market CRASH Following Israel Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities - 19th Apr 24
All Measures to Combat Global Warming Are Smoke and Mirrors! - 18th Apr 24
Cisco Then vs. Nvidia Now - 18th Apr 24
Is the Biden Administration Trying To Destroy the Dollar? - 18th Apr 24
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast to Dec 2024 - 16th Apr 24
No Deposit Bonuses: Boost Your Finances - 16th Apr 24
Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - 8th Apr 24
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting - 8th Apr 24
Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans - 8th Apr 24
Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom - 8th Apr 24
Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's - 7th Apr 24
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- 7th Apr 24
AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead - 7th Apr 24
Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years - 7th Apr 24
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? - 7th Apr 24
The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates - 7th Apr 24
The Evils of Paper Money Have no End - 7th Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - 3rd Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend - 2nd Apr 24
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 - 2nd Apr 24
Bitcoin S&P Pattern - 31st Mar 24
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings - 31st Mar 24
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS - 31st Mar 24
Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose - 31st Mar 24
Tandem Chairman Paul Pester on Fintech, AI, and the Future of Banking in the UK - 31st Mar 24
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

One Stock Market Where Sentiment is Bad... And Opportunity is Great

Stock-Markets / India Mar 04, 2012 - 11:56 AM GMT

By: DailyWealth

Stock-Markets

In the fall of 2008, as world markets were busting, I traveled to India to find bargains...  
 
My guide was Rahul Saraogi, a hedge-fund manager who specializes in smaller companies in India. He took the DailyWealth team on a multi-city tour to visit everything from a high-tech outsourcing company to a paper plant. Every company we saw was outrageously cheap.

I took advantage of the opportunity by personally investing in India. I pocketed a triple-digit gain in 14 months... And it sure looks like it's time to consider investing in India again.
 
With most assets around the world off to a fantastic start in 2012, it's hard to find negative sentiment anywhere on the globe. But there is negative sentiment in India...  
 
Yesterday, I talked to Rahul to get an on-the-ground update on India. He told me, "I have not met a single person here who is optimistic about the Indian markets (and business people here are generally optimistic). Also, globally, people are probably more negative about India now than at any time in the last decade." 
 
That's what I like to hear. When stocks are hated, you can find bargains.  
 
Rahul told me sentiment toward India is so negative because the economy has hit "rock bottom." GDP growth fell to "just" 6.1% last year. (Compare that to 1.7% growth in the U.S. in 2011.) China is still seeing "roaring over-investment" and needs to put the brakes on. But India can and will hit the gas...
 
India's central bank is one of the few central banks in the world that still has the room to lower interest rates now. Nearly every other country has already cut rates dramatically. A round of interest rate cuts by India's central bank would be like rocket fuel to India's economy and stock market.
 
And Indian stocks are cheap right now, especially smaller-cap stocks, like the ones Rahul follows in his fund...   
 
Companies that were nominally at 10-12 times earnings a couple years ago (very high quality companies) are now at 4-5 times earnings, because earnings in the last four years have doubled or tripled for these companies. Their stock prices are similar to 2009 levels... but in valuation terms they're a better deal today.
 
He also pointed out the Indian rupee fell 16% in 2011 versus the U.S. dollar, so it's cheaper for Americans to buy in.   
 
And the uptrend is in place this year... Most India funds are up over 25% year-to-date. (That's in just two months!)
 
This is exactly what I wait for in an opportunity – negative sentiment, combined with decent value, where the uptrend has begun.
 
It's a good time to start doing your homework on India now... whether it's buying a general India exchange-traded fund like the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) at a P/E of 10.55 or looking at more specific names like Rahul does. (You can read his "on the ground" observations here.) 
 
You may not have considered India before. But sentiment is bad, and opportunity is great. Last time around that was good for triple-digit gains.  
 
Good investing, 
 
Steve

http://www.dailywealth.com

The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2011 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Daily Wealth Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in