Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Will Gold Price Breakout? 3 Things to Watch… - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
2.China Invades Saudi Oil Realm: PetroDollar Kill - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, Paypal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning - Nadeem_Walayat
4.The Stock Market Trend is Your Friend ’til the Very End - Rambus_Chartology
5.This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare - F_F_Wiley
6.GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
7.US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building - Chris_Vermeulen
8.Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy - Buildadv
9.Can Bitcoin Price Rally Continue After Paypal Fake FUD Attack? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Warning Economic Implosion on the Horizon - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Is War "Hell" for the Stock Market? - 19th Apr 18
Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns - 19th Apr 18
Breadth Study Suggests that Stock Market Bottom is Already In - 19th Apr 18
Allegory Regarding Investment Decisions Made On Basis Of Government’s Income Statement, Balance Sheet - 19th Apr 18
Gold – A Unique Repeat of the 2007 and How to Profit - 19th Apr 18
Abbeydale Park Rise Cherry Tree's in Blossom - Sheffield Street Tree Protests - 19th Apr 18
The Stock Market “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries - 18th Apr 18
Winter is Coming - Coming Storms Will Bring Out the Best and Worst in Humanity - 18th Apr 18
What Does it Take to Create Living Wage Jobs? - 18th Apr 18
Gold and Silver Buy Signals - 18th Apr 18
WINTER IS COMING - The Ongoing Fourth Turning Crisis Part2 - 18th Apr 18
A Stock Market Rally on Low Volume is NOT Bearish - 17th Apr 18
Three Gold Charts, One Big Gold Stocks Opportunity - 17th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price As Bullish as it Seems? - 17th Apr 18
A Good Time to Buy Facebook? - 17th Apr 18
THE Financial Crisis Acronym of 2008 is Sounding Another Alarm - 16th Apr 18
Bombs, Missiles and War – What to Expect Next from the Stock Market - 16th Apr 18
Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold - 16th Apr 18
Will Bitcoin Ever Recover? - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market Futures Bounce, But Stopped at Trendline - 16th Apr 18
How To Profit As Oil Prices Explode - 16th Apr 18
Junior Mining Stocks are Close to Breaking Downtrend - 16th Apr 18
Look Inside a Caravan at UK Holiday Park for Summer 2018 - Hoseasons Cayton Bay Sea Side - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market More Weakness? How Much? - 15th Apr 18
Time for the Gold Bulls to Show their Mettle - 15th Apr 18
Trading Markets Amid Sound of Wars - 15th Apr 18
Sugar Commodity Buying Levels Analysis - 14th Apr 18
The Oil Trade May Be Coming Alive - 14th Apr 18
Big Cap US Stocks Fundamentals - 13th Apr 18
Jaguar Land Rover Cuts 1000 Jobs on Diesel Sales Slump, Long-term Discovery Sport Review - 13th Apr 18
Stock Market SPX May Tangle with the 50-day MA - 13th Apr 18
Longtanding Chinese War: Intrigue & Betrayal - 13th Apr 18
How I Own My Gold - 13th Apr 18
ISupply Energy Consumer Warning - Never Put Your Account Into Credit! - 13th Apr 18
SPX Resistance May Prompt A Massive Short Squeeze - 12th Apr 18
Stock Market High Volatility is Not Consistently Bearish for Stocks - 12th Apr 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Lessons

Myth Buster:TARP Bailout May Realize A Positive Return for Taxpayers?

Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts Apr 29, 2012 - 05:43 AM GMT

By: EconMatters

Interest-Rates

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) is a program initiated by the US government, funded by taxpayers, in October 2008 to bail out the banking and housing sector after the 2008 financial crisis. Due to the program's complexity and "repayment" schemes, there has been different estimates of what TARP would ultimately cost.


We looked at the various TARP estimates in August, 2011 trying to shed some light on two very fundamental questions -- (1) Where has Uncle Sams' bailout money gone (2) Has the money been paid back yet.  At that time, we found some published non-government sources of the "amount outstanding" on TARP ranging from $239 billion tracked by Pro Publica to NYT's $480 billion (CNNMoney data came to $357 billion).  And there's also one jaw-dropping outlier--$1.5 trillion--estimated by the Center for Media and Democracy (CMD)

Even after taking into account of government sources such as Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. Treasury Dept. is probably the only one repeatedly preaching the "profitability" of TARP.  After proclaiming that "Repayments to Taxpayers Surpass Tarp Funds Outstanding." in June 2010, Treasury came out with this update earlier this month:
"Overall, the government is now expected to at least break even on its financial stability programs and may realize a positive return. Treasury’s TARP investments and overall stake in AIG, purchase of mortgage-backed securities, and Money Market Fund guarantee program are each currently expected to realize an overall positive return for taxpayers."

A week later, along came a congressional report by SIGTARP (The Office of the Special Inspector General for the TARP) pouring ice water on the seemingly overly optimistic Treasury:

"It is a widely held misconception that TARP will make a profit...... As of March 31, 2012, $470.1 billion is obligated to TARP programs.6 Of that amount, $414.6 billion had been spent and $50.2 billion remained obligated and available to be spent.  Taxpayers are owed $118.5 billion as of March 31, 2012. 

The table below from SIGTARP report lists the most recent TARP program estimates from three agencies.



The update from Pro Publica, which tracks both the broader $700 billion TARP bill and the separate bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, showed $225 billion is the net still outstanding as of Apr. 18, 2012.  The tally from NYT stile as of April 28 came to $329.3 billion of fund not returned.  CNNMoney data suggests $356.2 billion "invested" within TARP, and $118.5 billion paid back, leaving 237.7 billion still outstanding.

Most of the outstanding TARP money is in the form of equity ownership in 437 institutions as of March 31, 2012. Treasury (and therefore the taxpayer) remains a shareholder in companies that have not repaid the Government.  According to SIGTARP's report, the difference in the TARP cost estimates from the three agencies are mainly in the assumptions regarding the value for AIG, GM, Ally, etc. stocks, future funds spent/received, and inclusion/exclusion of certain write-offs.  So essentially, it is difficult to come up with a good estimate as there's not a clear guideline for "assumptions."    

Nevertheless, don't think the buck stops here--SIGTARP report indicated $50.2 billion of TARP funds remain available as of March 31, 2012 to be drawn down by TARP recipients under three of TARP’s 13 announced programs mainly supporting banking, housing and auto sectors.  That means the $118.5 billion TARP loss concluded by SIGTARP could get even worse as more fund is still to be disbursed.

So it is fair to say regardless of the assumptions, it'd be hard pressed for TARP to break even let along turning a profit.  If we count the other programs such as the Fed's $1.2 trillion secret loan to Wall Street, the likelihood is quite small that U.S. taxpayers would ever come out of this hole dug so deep by the banking crisis and the subsequent secret and not-so-secret bailouts.  Sadly, it looks like the 99% will likely have more than just one lost decade in the course of bailing out the 1%.

By EconMatters

http://www.econmatters.com/

The theory of quantum mechanics and Einstein’s theory of relativity (E=mc2) have taught us that matter (yin) and energy (yang) are inter-related and interdependent. This interconnectness of all things is the essense of the concept “yin-yang”, and Einstein’s fundamental equation: matter equals energy. The same theories may be applied to equities and commodity markets.

All things within the markets and macro-economy undergo constant change and transformation, and everything is interconnected. That’s why here at Economic Forecasts & Opinions, we focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the markets to help you achieve a great continuum of portfolio yin-yang equilibrium.

That's why, with a team of analysts, we at EconMatters focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the financial markets that matters to your portfolio.

© 2012 Copyright EconMatters - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules