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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Heading for Support $850 to $860 for Good Buying Opportunity

Commodities / Gold & Silver Feb 05, 2008 - 12:18 PM GMT

By: Mark_OByrne

Commodities
Gold was down $4  to $903.90 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 6 cents to $16.73 per ounce. Gold traded sideways in Asia but has sold off in late Asian and early trading in Europe and is down to $890. Silver has also fallen and is down to $16.56 per ounce.


The London AM Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $889.75 (down from $899.50 yesterday). Gold fixed at £452.06 (down from £455.33 yesterday) and €605.60 (down from €607.20 yesterday).

Gold has continued to sell off today due to the dollar rallying (up nearly 1% to 1.468 against the euro, up 0.3% to 1.967 against sterling and up 0.9% to 76.02 on the US Dollar Index )  and oil further weakening (NYMEX March down by 0.95% to $89.20 per barrel).  Equity markets latest dead cat bounce may already be be wilting and stock markets internationally have weakened following the weakness seen in US equity markets late yesterday.


We are now in the third day of gold's sell off and while there may be some further weakness it is again likely that this sell off will be short, sharp and shallow. As the financial, economic and supply and demand fundamentals that have led to gold's strength in recent months have not changed .

The Bush administration's final annual budget request of $3.1 trillion is another example of serious fiscal irresponsibility. Taxpayers money is being spent in classic ‘guns and butter' fashion in a way that would give even the most fun loving drunken sailor a bad name.

President Bush inherited a national debt of $5.7 trillion. Under Bill Clinton, it had grown by 35 percent. Since Bush came to power it has grown 63 percent in just seven years. The national debt stands now at $9.2 trillion and may surpass $10 trillion when President Bush leaves office.

This will lead to further pressure on the US dollar in the coming years and may lead to its recent historical status as the global reserve currency of the world being questioned.

Support and Resistance
Support is now at $850 to $860 and this should provide strong support and make a good buying opportunity for those with a medium to long term outlook.

FX
FX markets traded sideways in the majority with the Euro trading in a narrow range against the dollar. It continued to firm against Sterling too, that is until the release of PMI data out of the Eurozone, which proved to be surprisingly weak. Traders will interpret this as an the ECB being forced to reconsider its firm stance on rates however for now they are going to persist with their inflation fighting mantra.

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) starts their rate setting meeting tomorrow with an announcement of a 25 basis point cut expected to be announced at noon on Thursday.

Finally the RBA raised Australian interest rates last night by the expected 25 basis points. Their higher than target CPI numbers ensured that they were  going to deliver the hike and should these levels persist then more hikes will be forthcoming. The strength in commodity prices has played no small part in the move towards higher rates.

Silver
Silver is trading at $16.49/54 at 1200GMT.

PGMs
Platinum has sold off from new record highs and is trading at $1768/1777 (1200GMT).

Palladium has also sold off and was trading at $410/416 an ounce (1200GMT)

By Mark O'Byrne, Executive Director

Gold Investments
63 Fitzwilliam Square
Dublin 2
Ireland
Ph +353 1 6325010
Fax  +353 1 6619664
Email info@gold.ie
Web www.gold.ie
Gold Investments
Tower 42, Level 7
25 Old Broad Street
London
EC2N 1HN
United Kingdom
Ph +44 (0) 207 0604653
Fax +44 (0) 207 8770708
Email info@www.goldassets.co.uk
Web www.goldassets.co.uk

 

Gold and Silver Investments Ltd. have been awarded the MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analyst of 2006.

Mission Statement
Gold and Silver Investments Limited hope to inform our clientele of important financial and economic developments and thus help our clientele and prospective clientele understand our rapidly changing global economy and the implications for their livelihoods and wealth.
We focus on the medium and long term global macroeconomic trends and how they pertain to the precious metal markets and our clienteles savings, investments and livelihoods. We emphasise prudence, safety and security as they are of paramount importance in the preservation of wealth.

Financial Regulation: Gold & Silver Investments Limited trading as Gold Investments is regulated by the Financial Regulator as a multi-agency intermediary. Our Financial Regulator Reference Number is 39656. Gold Investments is registered in the Companies Registration Office under Company number 377252 . Registered for VAT under number 6397252A . Codes of Conduct are imposed by the Financial Regulator and can be accessed at www.financialregulator.ie or from the Financial Regulator at PO Box 9138, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland. Property, Commodities and Precious Metals are not regulated by the Financial Regulator

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

All the opinions expressed herein are solely those of Gold & Silver Investments Limited and not those of the Perth Mint. They do not reflect the views of the Perth Mint and the Perth Mint accepts no legal liability or responsibility for any claims made or opinions expressed herein.

Mark O'Byrne Archive

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