Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market Explained - Video - 13th Mar 19
TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 - 13th Mar 19
Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation - 13th Mar 19
Is the Stock Market Still in a Bear Market? - 13th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - 13th Mar 19
Gold Up-to-Date' COT Report: A Maddening Déjà Vu - 12th Mar 19
Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It's Not That Simple - 12th Mar 19
Palladium Blowup Could Expose Scam of Gold & Silver Futures - 12th Mar 19
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits - 12th Mar 19
The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime - 12th Mar 19
Theresa May BrExit Back Stab Deal Counting Down to Resignation, Tory Leadership Election - 12th Mar 19
Phase 1 of Stock Market Correction - 11th Mar 19
Long Awaited Stock Market Pullback has Finally Arrived - 11th Mar 19
US Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market - Video - 11th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - 11th Mar 19
Chinese Economic Data Shakes the Global Stock Markets - 11th Mar 19
The Fed Is Playing a Dangerous Game - 11th Mar 19
The Stock Market Has Called the Fed’s Bluff, What’s Next? - 11th Mar 19
Turkey Holiday Bazaar Extreme Jewelry Price Haggling - Fethiye Market - 11th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth

Crude Oil Prices - Goldman Revises Down

Commodities / Crude Oil Oct 18, 2012 - 11:28 AM GMT

By: Andrew_McKillop

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIce sheets retreating due to global warming often suddenly stabilise for “decades to centuries” no matter that the warming is still going on, scientists of the British Antarctic Survey and partner research institutions have found. It would seem that current predictions of sea level rises to be expected on a given timescale with a given amount of global warming will need to be revised - downwards. System stability is much higher than previously thought - or hoped by global warming hysterics.


In fact more closely related to this news than it might at first seem, Goldman Sachs analyst David Greely in a recent mea culpa from GS allowed punters to know that Goldman has been exaggerating with its oft-repeated claims that "the right price of oil" in 2012 is $125 for WTI and $130 for Brent. In his October review of oil market fundamentals published by Goldman Sachs, Greely said in brief coded language that oil markets are "cyclically tight but structurally stable".

He went on to say that GS now sees long-dated Brent crude oil stabilizing around $90/bbl, a price level which is a whopping $40 lower than previous GS forecasts. The new forecast could or might save face for GS, and just as important a large number of customer plays on rising oil prices going forward.

The famous Brent premium feeding huge volumes of arbitrage trades at an unreal mark-up from WTI to Brent - hitting highs up to $25 a barrel - has disappeared from the Goldman oil price Muppet show. Greely said that he sees a return to the oil pricing regime that characterized the crude oil market in the 1990s when long-dated Brent crude oil prices were anchored at $20/bbl, and although he made a point of not mentioning it, a year average oil price of $11.90 in 1998, or in 2012 dollars about $16.80 per barrel that same year. At the time, in those halcyon years, the Brent-WTI mark up counted for toast, the premium-and-discount was nearly zero.

HELLO TO OPEC, GOODBYE TO ARBITRAGE TRADES
In a very interesting exhibit of oil trader schizophrenia and double talk from high paid oil analysts, Goldman Sachs now tells us that rising OPEC spare capacity is no longer a mortal threat to global security, the triumph of Al Qaeda and a guarantee of high oil prices - but the exact opposite. In Greely's words OPEC spare capacity anchored longdated prices in the 1990s, which were low, and future oil prices will be anchored not only by growing OPEC capacity but also by "substantial growth in crude oil supplies from US shale, Canadian oil sands, and global deepwater provinces".

Making a point of keeping his chitchat off the subject of world oil demand - which is very close to straight line and can decline, not only in Europe but also in Asia - Greely has to talk his way around the fact that US WTI grade crude is a low-price snip relative to Brent, "but nobody seems to have noticed".  The Goldman Sachs flight plan for oil prices soaring to $130 a barrel for Brent and just a little less for WTI - - now backtracked very officiallly by GS to a $110 forecast for Brent crude in Q4 2012 - - still needs to tell us all why, at present, Brent grade crude should cost $25 more, each barrel, than WTI.

We get an amusing series of 100% US-based inner sanctum rationales from the GS oilspin doctors. In breif these say that WTI prices have traded at an increasing discount to Brent because barrels delivered to the Cushing, Oklahoma Nymex oil pricing base point and terminal for physical deliveries (of the few percent of all paper contracts taken to delivery) cannot be onward transported south to the US Gulf Coast for refining. The pipeline and rail transport capacity, even truck transport and maybe a few barrels given a ride in the back of a pick-up vehicle, are just not up to the task. What is needed is the Big Thing of the Seaway pipeline expansion, ramping up from its current capacity of 150 000 barrels/day to its new capacity of 400 000 b/d in early 2013. Conversely and in the meantime, the addition of substantial new rail loading and unloading capacity in 2012 has created excess capacity to move Bakken crude, from the north, to the Gulf Coast and especially to the Pacific coast.

Bakken crude, which is very low or zero sulphur, even lighter and easier to refine than WTI, commands a premium against WTI and depresses its price as Bakken's mostly shale-based crude output increases. Goldman has no option but to believe that less Bakken crude will flow south into Cushing, preventing Cushing inventories from building too much as the major nearest refining point for crude, BP’s Whiting refinery undergoes further conversion to handle heavier crudes. Basically and logically, WTI demand should rise because more of it can be refined, with a certain and massive downward hit on the unreal Brent-WTI premium that Greely now forecasts as making LLS (light low sulphur) crudes, in the US, trade at a $2 per barrel discount against Brent by the second half of 2013.

The current WTI-Brent spread (18 October 2012) is minus $20.50 per barrel.

This coming crash of the premium and its related, nice-for-traders arbitrage plays, makes it necessary also for Goldman Sachs to back off regarding the premium/discount which will operate the rest of 2012. Greely says "We expect the WTI-Brent spread to remain volatile in 2012, but to narrow to minus $4/bbl in early 2013".  The only hope for arbitragists will come, Greely thinks, if Bakken crude is increasingly shipped to the US east coast, by rail because the pipeline capacity does not presently exist. Only under that fragile assumption can the arbitrage trade be saved, but even then it will be downsized to a Brent premium against WTI of no more than $6 per barrel "by the end of 2013".

By Andrew McKillop

Contact: xtran9@gmail.com

Former chief policy analyst, Division A Policy, DG XVII Energy, European Commission. Andrew McKillop Biographic Highlights

Co-author 'The Doomsday Machine', Palgrave Macmillan USA, 2012

Andrew McKillop has more than 30 years experience in the energy, economic and finance domains. Trained at London UK’s University College, he has had specially long experience of energy policy, project administration and the development and financing of alternate energy. This included his role of in-house Expert on Policy and Programming at the DG XVII-Energy of the European Commission, Director of Information of the OAPEC technology transfer subsidiary, AREC and researcher for UN agencies including the ILO.

© 2012 Copyright Andrew McKillop - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules