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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

US Election Make or Break Tuesday for Democrats Clinton and Obama

Politics / US Politics Mar 02, 2008 - 03:25 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics It makes a refreshing ' CHANGE' as we have heard so many times over recent months, to have a real election campaign especially given today's hand picked Russian pseudo-election which effectively re-elects Putin for another 8 years.


But back to the US election - 'Mini Super Tuesday', 'Make or Break Tuesday', 'Critical Tuesday', which ever way you put it, next Tuesday could be the day that the Democrats choose their candidate for Novembers Presidential Election with a very high probability the Next President of the United States will be a Democrat given the ongoing economic collapse brought about by the failed Neo-con experiment that has conned the American public into following disastrous policies such as the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the cost of which is expected to exceed $3 trillions when the final bill is in. Coupled with imbecilic economic policies that has resulted in the US drifting into an Stagflation environment that usually proves extremely painful to pull oneself out of ! All of which was unnecessary had there been some semblance of competency in the White House these last 8 years, still this IS what America voted for twice.

So this time we can write off the republicans, even a war Hero called John McCain that's keeping George Bush 1000 miles from where ever he delivers his election speeches, from any real chance of winning the next US election.

The Democratic State of Delegates Play

Pledged Super Delegates Total Delegates required Lead
Barack Obama 1184 185 1369 656 102
Hillary Clinton 1031 236 1267 758

The winner is the first one to 2025 delegates, a majority of 4049 total delegates

To complicate matters, the democrats have two types of delegates Pledged and Super-delegates

3253 Pledged are those that pledge to vote for the candidate based on votes in the state they represent.

796 Are super-delegates which comprises democrat party members, governors, party leaders etc, and do not have to pledge their support for a candidate but can come out and declare their intention to support a particular candidate

Mini Super Tuesday
Ahead of Make or Break Tuesday, Barack Obama leads Hilary Clinton by 102 delegates.

On Tuesday the following states will vote indicating the number of delegates that are up for grabs:

State Delegates
Texas 228
Ohio 161 389
Rhode Island 32
Vermont 23
Total 444

The key is that whoever picks up Texas AND Ohio will win the democratic nomination on Tuesday.
However should each of the two big states go to Obama AND Clinton, then the contest remains open as the total delegate counts also comprise a significant number of super-delegates that could go against the state vote

In which case the attention will turn to the remaining big states to vote later this year which are -

Pennsylvania 22-Apr 188
North Carolina 06-May 134 322

The opinion polls currently indicate a dead heat between Clinton and Obama ahead of Tuesday, though as we have seen in recent weeks the polls have proven notoriously unreliable i.e. having utterly failed on Super Tuesday.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 120 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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