Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold Price Target of USD 2,300 - GoldCore
2.Greece Banking System Collapse Monday as ECB Pulls the Plug, Capital Controls Ahead of GrExit - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Why British Muslims Are Leaving Elysium Paradise for Syrian Hell - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Greece BANKRUPT! Financial and Economic Collapse to Follow IMF Debt Default - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Extreme Gold/Silver Shorting - Zeal_LLC
6.European Empire Strikes Back Against Greek Debt Fantasy, Counting Down to GREXIT - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold And Silver – Three Choices: Sell, Hold, Hold and Add. A Trading Treatise - Michael_Noonan
8.Gold and Silver Price Headed for Breakdown - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
9.Greece Crisis OXI - Raul_I_Meijer
10.Flatline Investing and Dead End Debt Schemes - Doug_Wakefield
Last 5 days
Greece Debt Crisis Trigger for Stock Market Crash or Bull Rally? Video - 1st July 15
Gold Stocks Break Below 2008 Low - 1st July 15
SPX Stock Market Retracement May be Over - 1st July 15
Silver Tunnel Vision 'Experts' - 1st July 15
Gold And Silver - Monthly, Quarterly Ending Analysis - 1st July 15
Europe’s Controlled Demolition - 1st July 15
The End of Dow 18,000; Bailouts No Longer Extended  - 1st July 15
Athens Mayor: Greek Government Should Resign - 1st July 15
China Stocks - This Is What a Bubble Looks Like - 30th June 15
Stocks Plunge on Greece Euro-Zone Financial Armageddon Blackmail - 30th June 15
Greece Crisis Shows Importance of Gold as Europeans Buy Coins and Bars - 30th June 15
Stock Investors Express Route to Profits in the Healthcare Sector - 30th June 15
Beyond the Greek Impasse - 30th June 15
Gold GDXJ : Impulse Move Pending - 30th June 15
Fed Interest Rate Increase Could Be Best Thing to Happen to Gold - 30th June 15
Marc Faber - Greece is Basically Bankrupt - 30th June 15
Greece - Shoot the Dog and Sell the Farm - 29th June 15
Grexit?, BIS Warning, Chinese Market Crash & Systemic Risk Shake the Global Economy - 29th June 15
The New "Sharing Economy" May Not Be the Profit Bonanza Everyone's Expecting - 29th June 15
Gold and Silver Greece and Short Positions - 29th June 15
Volatility and Sleep-Walking Markets - 29th June 15
Greece BANKRUPT! Financial and Economic Collapse to Follow IMF Debt Default - 29th June 15
Stock Market More Decline Ahead? - 29th June 15
China Stock Market Crackup - The Final Trap Looms... - 29th June 15
Greece Banking System Collapse Monday as ECB Pulls the Plug, Capital Controls Ahead of GrExit - 28th June 15
Investor Stock Play for Two Growing Missile Threats - 28th June 15
Stock Market Uptrend/downtrend Inflection Point - 27th June 15
Greece Crisis OXI - 27th June 15
Gold And Silver – Three Choices: Sell, Hold, Hold and Add. A Trading Treatise - 27th June 15
It’s Time to Change the Way You Look at Disney Forever - 27th June 15
Flatline Investing and Dead End Debt Schemes - 27th June 15
Stock Market Investors Avoid the "Herd" Like the Plague - 26th June 15
Extreme Gold/Silver Shorting - 26th June 15
USD Daily, Weekly, Monthly & Conclusions - 26th June 15
Gold Price Target of USD 2,300 - 26th June 15
Gold and Silver - Another Successful Option Expiration For the Insiders - 26th June 15
Why Buffett Bet A Billion On Solar Energy - 26th June 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

China Stocks - Where are they going?

The Final Economic Countdown

Politics / Global Economy Feb 18, 2013 - 12:11 PM GMT

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Politics

Governments have refused to accept the necessity of a period of economic re-adjustment following the credit-bubble. The bubble burst about five years ago and economic progress has been effectively suspended ever since. The consequences of this refusal to accept reality are at a minimum to make this adjustment unnecessarily drawn out and needlessly painful, without offering a better eventual outcome.


Reduced to its bare bones, the choice has been either to accept that unviable businesses and over-extended banks must go bust, or to ignore the problem and hope it goes away. We are familiar with this dilemma as investors: a business that refuses to adapt to new realities will eventually fail. Before it does, its investors have the chance either to sell their shares and perhaps reinvest their money more profitably, or to refuse to accept an early loss on their investment. Most of us, being human, take the latter course and usually regret it.

The lesson, if we care to learn it, is that the product of time and money is more valuable than the desire to avoid a book loss. In economic terms, it is better for resources to be deployed efficiently than to tie them up in inefficient or unwanted activity. This is a decision for markets, not governments, which brings us back to the necessity for economic re-adjustment. Governments have simply not faced up to the reality that we are in a post-credit-bubble mess: they still hope the problem will be resolved by time.At this point we must dismiss objections that you cannot compare national accounts with those of a business. Such platitudes display wishful thinking more than a grasp of reality. However, wishful thinkers have a minor point in that governments have the wherewithal to put off the inevitable for longer than failing businesses; but the result is the zombie-like economy we face today.

Governments are refusing to let markets clear: prices have not been permitted to fall to a clearing level. They put it off because the American economist Irving Fisher came up with a plausible theory about financial deflation in the 1930s, and they don’t want to face the bankruptcies of the over-indebted, the businesses that rely on the state for their survival, and the banks that have foolishly lent them too much money.

Reality is now catching up with western governments. Their underlying financial position is rapidly deteriorating, with welfare costs spiralling out of control and governments already heavily in debt. They cannot realistically underwrite the global banking system, which is insolvent and considerably larger than the governments themselves. The economic recovery which is the governments’ get-out-of-jail card will not occur without that economic readjustment.

We are long past the point of no return: that was probably when the Federal Reserve Board under Greenspan decided to rescue the stock market by cutting interest rates to 1% in 2003/04. It has been crisis management by the state ever since. We have progressed to the point where governments have chosen to protect themselves, in preference to looking after the true interests of their electorates.

Governments are now finally reduced to screwing their electorates for their own survival, which is their last refuge from reality.

Alasdair Macleod runs FinanceAndEconomics.org, a website dedicated to sound money and demystifying finance and economics. Alasdair has a background as a stockbroker, banker and economist. He is also a contributor to GoldMoney - The best way to buy gold online.

© 2013 Copyright Alasdair Macleod - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Alasdair Macleod Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History