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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Global Economy

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Friday, July 14, 2017

Trump’s Trade Policies Are Provoking A Global Trade War— How to Hedge Your Portfolio / Politics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON :Removing barriers to international trade has both upside and downside. Donald Trump is now president in part because he focused on the downside: lost US jobs, closed factories, blighted communities.

Even more important, he's fundamentally changing the way government looks at trade policy.

Trade negotiations have long had the implicit goal of promoting peace. It’s a fact that nations with active business relationships rarely attack each other, though the security aspect used to stay mostly unspoken.

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Politics

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Here’s Why This G20 Meeting Doesn’t Really Matter / Politics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Anyone who has ever been to a meeting knows that meetings are often confounding, frustrating affairs. Most of them are designed simply to be held. The people who attend them are unlikely to agree on anything except maybe the date of the next one.

The G-20 summit is no exception.

But that’s only because the people who attend it, the leaders of the countries with the world’s 20 largest economies, think of themselves as decision-makers when really they are hostages to history.

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Economics

Monday, July 03, 2017

Are Advanced Economies Ready for Recovery, Really? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Or Global Reflation As China Begins Tightening
Until recently, the conventional wisdom was that China’s contribution to global reflation would be increasingly accompanied by those of the US and Europe. Yet, the realities may look grimmer than anticipated.

Usually, the term ‘reflation’ is used to describe the first phase of economic recovery after a period of contraction. More recently, ‘global reflation’ has been deployed to refer to the post-crisis past decade, which has been characterized by lingering recovery from the global crisis, despite ultra-low rates and quantitative easing.

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Economics

Sunday, July 02, 2017

The China-EU-US-Triangle Déjà Vu / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

The new rapprochement between Brussels and Beijing involves converging economic interests between Europe and China – and diverging strategic interests between Europe and America.

A day after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, Le Monde declared that “we are all Americans.” But the honeymoon of shared suffering ended quickly when US military revenge raged across Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere. Instead, a deep and broad transatlantic rift emerged, thanks to bitter disagreements about President Bush’s foreign policy revolution.

Today, many feel an odd sense of déjà vu.
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Economics

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Here’s The Case For An Upside Risk In The Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

One of the true riddles in the economic world today is a steady drop in total global productivity over the last few decades. That’s in spite of the growing use of computers, robotics, and artificial intelligence.

In theory, productivity should have gone up, but it didn’t.

Professor and Nobel laureate Robert Gordon and others have foreseen that the GDP growth will decline to less than 1%, and they have all sorts of data to back up their claim.

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Economics

Thursday, May 25, 2017

5 Trends That Will Shape the Next Decade / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

In a typically ebullient presentation at Mauldin Economics’ 2017 Strategic Investment Conference on Tuesday, author, analyst, and trend-spotter Pippa Malmgren laid out key trends set to shape the early part of the 21st century.

Overall, the future is bright enough to need shades but also sunblock, according to Malmgren. The key thing we need is situational awareness. “Nobody saw the financial crisis, Brexit, or Trump coming,” she said. “I did. Not because I’m smarter than anyone else, but because people insist on looking at the world through a mathematical lens. This is a terrible mistake.”

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Economics

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Map Shows 16 Countries Will Be Hit Hard By The Global Exporters’ Crisis / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

The world is currently in the midst of an exporters' crisis. The stagnation in global consumption levels and decline of commodity prices have led to increased instability and insecurity in countries heavily dependent on exports.

The origins of the exporters’ crisis lie in the economic recessions that the United States and Europe experienced due to the 2008 financial crash. These countries were major consumers of Chinese goods, notably low-cost manufactured products.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

The Last G-20 Meeting Marks the End of Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : In the last G-20 meeting, its members agreed to drop the forum’s commitment to free trade at the insistence of the United States. That agreement was reached at one meeting and was contained in a single document—such agreements and documents are far from written in stone.

In spite of that, it must be regarded as a historical moment. Excluding the free trade commitment from the agreement marks a fundamental shift in a concept that has been central to global economics for more than a generation.

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Economics

Friday, March 17, 2017

Preserving Order Amid Change in NAFTA, U.S. Sovereignty v. WTO / Economics / Global Economy

By: STRATFOR

By Reva Goujon and Matthew Bey : It took more than a decade and three presidencies, from Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton, to conceive and craft the North American Free Trade Agreement. Will a single presidency manage to undo the process of North American integration? While the risk is real, the reality may be less dramatic.

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Economics

Monday, March 06, 2017

Trump's Disruptive Approach to Trade / Economics / Global Economy

By: STRATFOR

A shift in U.S. trade policy that follows the outline presented today to Congress would upend the foundations of global trade as it is currently conducted. The biggest change in the approach that the administration of President Donald Trump may take is its assertion that U.S. sovereignty in trade disputes could empower it to supersede rulings made by the World Trade Organization (WTO).

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Economics

Wednesday, March 01, 2017

US Drives Global Economic Growth / Economics / Global Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US is back in the driver seat again as a sustained and growing economic powerhouse – the Trump Economy.  Since the November 2016 elections, the US economic data and outlook have been driving investment in US equities as well as select foreign investment opportunities.  The reduction in regulations and business friendly Trump administration seems to have unleashed the hoard of cash and opportunity of the past 7+ years.  US and foreign business are, again, “wheeling and dealing” with the intent of generating greater profits and more opportunities.

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Economics

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Not Nearly Enough Economic Growth To Keep Growing / Economics / Global Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s amusing to see how views start to converge, at the same time that it’s tiresome to see how long that takes. It’s a good thing that more and more people ‘discover’ how and why austerity, especially in Europe, is such a losing and damaging strategy. It’s just a shame that this happens only after the horses have left the barn and the cows have come home, been fed, bathed, put on lipstick and gone back out to pasture again. Along the same lines, it’s beneficial that the recognition that for a long time economic growth has not been what ‘we’ think it should be, is spreading.

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Economics

Monday, February 13, 2017

Reinventing the Global Economy Is the Only Way Out / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

As I’ve written previously, central bankers received a lot of criticism over the last year or two as the global economy has stubbornly refused to recover from the Great Recession at anywhere near the rate of past post-recession growth cycles.

Economics has come under fire along with other “establishment” institutions that are perceived as uncaring and out of touch. The criticism grew more intense—and more effective in the past year as Brexit and then the Trump victory occurred.

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Economics

Friday, January 20, 2017

Real Leadership Requires True Globalization / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

After 2008, world trade, investment and migration have come to a standstill. What the world requires is responsible leadership, which rests on inclusive globalization.

During his first state visit to Switzerland and the World Economic Forum (WEF), President Xi Jinping hoped to inject a positive impetus for the recovery of the world economy.

Amidst rising economic uncertainty and market volatility, Xi offered China's vision on economic growth and free trade in a global economy overshadowed by protectionism.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

WTO Debacle Heralds the End of Postwar Trade Regime / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

 “China is not a market economy,” President-elect Donald Trump said in Iowa a few days ago. In the past few months, Trump has also pledged to undo the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), beat back the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), impose huge tariffs on China and Mexico, and rewrite the rules of trade.

Nevertheless, the Obama White House, the EU and Japan beat Trump in the reset of the international trading regime by refusing China its market economy status (MES). The key clause in China’s agreement for joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) expired on Sunday.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 07, 2016

More Talk About More Economic Growth and More Globalization / Economics / Global Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The world is facing the “first lost decade since the 1860s”, said Bank of England governor Mark Carney this week. Arguably good for soundbite of the day, but the buck stops there. The only way that buck could have kept rolling would have been for Carney to take a critical look at himself and his employer(s), but there was none of that.

The Canadian import governor has no doubts about anything he’s done, or if he does he shows none. Instead he puts the blame for all that’s gone awry, on some -minor- elements of what he think globalization means, not with the phenomenon itself, or his enduring support for, and belief in, it. The problem with that is it’s indeed belief only; he can’t prove an inch of what he says.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

The Winners and Losers of a Global Trade War / Economics / Global Economy

By: Harry_Dent

My research in recent months has focused increasingly on how the surprise Brexit vote and Trump’s victory are actually not that surprising after all. They’re a clear sign of a growing number of everyday people rejecting the massive globalization trend that has surged since World War II.

The world “shrinking” seemed to be a win-win at first. Countries could focus on what they do best and export to others while importing what they need. And, yes, longer-term that does work, as Adam Smith first espoused in 1776.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

How China And Trump Era Will Define Free Trade In Asia Pacific / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

After the Trump triumph, US-led free trade plans are shelved, which leaves China an opportunity to redefine trade in Asia Pacific.

During his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump embraced a protectionist stance on trade issues and called the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster.” More recently, he has pledged that the US will quit the TPP on his first day in the White House.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Globalization Faces Challenges / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Browne

For much of the second half of the 20th Century, and even into the new millennium, "Globalization" was the dominant theme used to describe the drift of the world economy. It was widely considered both natural and inevitable that the world economy would continue to integrate and that national boundaries would become less constraining to commerce and culture. And with the exception of the eternal "anti-globalization" protesters, who robotically appeared at large gatherings of world leaders, the benefits of globalization were widely lauded by politicians, corporate leaders and rank and file citizens alike. But a casual glance at the world headlines of 2016 suggests that the belief in globalization has crested, and is now in retreat. What are the consequences of this change?

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Economics

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Samsung's Galaxy Battery Just The Tip Of The Iceberg / Economics / Global Economy

By: Gordon_T_Long

Are Central Bankers Crippling The Global Supply Chain?

Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith begin 'pealing the onion' on a deteriorating global supply chain and what the root cause is.

Though the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 battery problem is presently receiving a tremendous amount of media and public attention, what few appreciate is that it is only the tip of the iceberg of cracks in the global supply chained as a result of unintended consequences of central bank monetary policies. In this 35 minute video Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith begin 'pealing the onion' on a deteriorating global supply chain and what the root cause is.

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