Category: Global EconomyThe analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
The Federal Reserve Bank has printed trillions of dollars to monetize US government debt just to keep the government afloat. Any significant rise in interest rates will probably decimate US government finances, the fragile housing market and in the bond market it will cause a financial catastrophe through interest rate derivatives.
This is a solid reason why the Fed will not raise any rates in any foreseeable future.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 25, 2015
Recently, I thought it would be fun to upgrade the turbo charger on my old car. No real good reason, other than it would be free (it was given to me) and interesting. It’s a very light car that feels like a little rocket (when it works)--a guilty pleasure.
One thing I hadn’t anticipated was the need for higher quality intake hoses to manage the extra air flow and exhaust heat. Over and over, I keep blowing hose connections. While the car still drives during periods, there is barely any power at all.
Friday, February 27, 2015
Enjoy an excerpt from "The State of the Global Markets 2015 Edition," a comprehensive report by Elliott Wave International
Editor's note: This article is excerpted from "The State of the Global Markets 2015 Edition," a comprehensive report by Elliott Wave International, the world's largest independent market-forecasting firm (data through December 2014). You can download the full, 53-page report here -- 100% free.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 24, 2014
It's been quite a month.
In late October Japan, despite a year of fairly aggressive quantitative easing, dropped back into recession and concluded that even easier money was the cure for its ills. It announced a debt monetization plan of almost science-fictional proportions in which the amount of new yen to be created, as a percentage of GDP, will be equivalent to $3 trillion a year in the US. See Reactions to BoJ's Kuroda's Stunning, Doubled-Down QE 'Experiment'Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2014
As I was writing The Broken Model Of The Eurozone yesterday, I already knew there would have to be a sequel, because doing everything in one go would have been too much. And then, considerably less than two seconds later, it dawned on me that if I wanted to cover broken models and systems, a book would be the very least. But I don’t want to write a book, or, certainly, not here and now. Therefore, the best I think I can do is to sit down and let it flow, train of thought, stream of consciousness, probably the approach that suits me best to begin with.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Nearly a century after the fact, the Great Depression remains THE object lesson for virtually every branch of economics. To monetarists the fact that the US money supply fell by nearly a third in the 1930s illustrates the need for a central bank to maintain steady money growth. To Keynesians the Depression’s depth and duration proved that capitalist systems are inherently unstable and need a big, powerful government to manage them. World War II, in this framework, saved the US economy from permanent 25% unemployment.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 06, 2014
The biggest news topic in our global economy now centers on the growing threat from ISIS. They are well-funded, well-organized and brutal. Their on-the-ground army in Iraq and Syria and their extremely violent actions have the world on edge.
After the beheading of two U.S. journalists, Obama has said that the objective is clear: “That is to degrade and destroy ISIS.”
The world’s Geopolitical cycle is heating up. And it doesn’t bode well.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2014
Forbes Editor-in-Chief and longtime friend Steve Forbes leads off this week’s Outside the Box with a sweeping historical summary – and damning indictment – of the “cheap money” policies of the US executive branch and Federal Reserve. Four decades of fiat money (since Richard Nixon and his Treasury Secretary, John Connally, axed the gold standard in 1971) and six years of Fed funny business have led us, in Steve’s words, to an era of “declining mobility, great inequality, and the destruction of personal wealth.”
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Harry Dent writes: Central bankers think they can keep their economy going by artificial stimulus until they hit escape velocity and grow at normal rates again — but they’re wrong.
Here at Dent Research we hold a different view to what drives the economy.
And central bankers are in for three big surprises ahead.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2014
Baseball great Yogi Berra had a saying “It's déjà vu all over again”, and every year around this time, I am reminded of those words. As we have once again, happened upon that magical time of year I call, recovery summer déjà vu. It’s the time of year when Wall Street and Washington apologists trot out their dog and pony narrative, in an attempt to spin the actual data, proving we have finally embarked on the summer that will launch sustainable economic growth.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 25, 2014
Geopolitics and Markets Red Flags Raised by the Fed and the BIS on Risk-taking / Economics / Global Economy
Growing geopolitical risk is on everyone’s mind right now, but in today’s Outside the Box, Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan Asset Management leads off with a helpful reminder: the only time since WWII that a violent conflict has had a medium-term negative effect on markets was in 1973, when the Israeli-Arab war led to a Saudi oil embargo against the US and a quadrupling of oil prices. And he backs up that assertion with an interesting table of facts labeled “War zone countries as a percentage of total world… [population, oil production, GDP, etc.].”Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 25, 2014
Governments and central banks have made little or no progress in recovering from the Lehman crisis six years ago. The problem is not helped by dependence on statistics which are downright misleading. This is particularly true of real GDP, comprised of nominal GDP deflated by an estimate of price inflation. First, we must discuss the inflation adjustment.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 14, 2014
Each monthly decline in leading economic indicators, when it happens in the Eurozone, as in the US or Japan, China, Brazil, India or elsewhere, is always “unexpected”. Why is this?
For example the March, April, May and June declines for the Eurozone were each time titled “unexpected” by newswires and mainstream media the month following each “surprise”. Taking the case of Reuters, it reported April 14 that Eurozone industrial output had fallen in March “for the first time since August” so this was able to be called unexpected. Then the decline continued in April.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 04, 2014
Robert Blumen, a software engineer with a background in financial applications, recently spoke with the Mises Institute about the Austrian School’s growing influence among investors.
Mises Institute: In recent years, we’ve seen more and more Austrian-tinged economic analysis coming from investors like Mark Spitznagel and Jim Rogers, to just name two. As someone personally involved in the investment world, have you yourself seen growth in Austrian ideas among investors and similar professionals?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 04, 2014
While Nobody's Watching
Christine Lagarde and the IMF chose the midst of the world football cup and the Iraq and Ukrainian crises as just the right moment to announce new “draconian plans” to solve the debt crisis of the developed countries. Dressed in her Hermes scarf and clutching her uber-expensive Jane Birkin-bag, she laid out the IMF Bagmen's plan, this week.