Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market From Hollow To Green.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Apr 09, 2013 - 10:58 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


Friday was the big opportunity the bears had been waiting for, really nasty employment data to go along with a huge gap down. There it was. All for the taking. Seize the day you bears! No dice. They seized nothing. They let it get away. They had their knee on the throats of those bulls but let them up again. Give the bears credit though. They tried again today. The futures were up nice early but gave way as the morning wore on pre market. We opened a drop higher but it took only moments for the market to sell across the board. It started to look as if the bears were about to laugh their way to head fake from Friday, but, once again, it didn't last in terms of the selling.

As the day wore on the market found some buyers. Nothing huge but buyers nonetheless which allowed the averages to all close in the green. The Nasdaq led higher, which is important as it needs to lead if the market wants to rock higher over time. While today does nothing to alleviate the risk that exists in the market, it's likely the market will try a bit higher before trying lower once again in the near term. The hollow red from Friday did eventually follow through today so it would be normal to try higher tomorrow, at least early on but we shall see. A good day for the bulls even though things are grinding and whipping about. Nothing is safe, but the bulls will accept the gift handed to them all the same.

The question everyone was asking me today was why the bears gave it up on Friday after getting the perfect news for a bad day. A really bad day at that. The answer, as far as I can guess, is that the market is hoping the sequester will be a two-quarter event and, thus, it's not the beginning of a declining economy that has legs and momentum. It may. We don't know for sure but in a bull market the bulls always have the last say on things.

If they feel it's not the real deal in terms of weakening with real force, they are going to buy things up when they sell off. Only if the bulls thought this weakening was real for the long-term would they stop buying weakness. That, of course, would finally allow the bears to take over with confidence but for now, the bears are acting fearfully. They just won't attack. It seems they want to cover lost, short positions on any selling rather than getting aggressive. Until they do, the market will try and grind higher, although with difficulties.

There is more potential trouble brewing for the bulls on any move up. The oscillators are lagging again. No strong push with price action for now thus the likelihood is another negative divergence if we move up to old highs. Never a guarantee that the divergence will take effect immediately, thus, you'll once again, as usual, need to see a reversal stick. The fact that we'll see negative divergences seems to be a slam dunk. When that's clear to everyone sometimes it takes time to kick in but they will kick in over time, although potentially from decently higher prices as the divergence isn't official unless we can get back to the recent highs which for now is still a bit away. With negative divergences at new highs if we get there plus the sentiment issues and overbought headaches, it makes the market a dangerous place to be with any aggression to the long side.

Recognize that and if you desire to play, keep it light so you don't get shaken out very easily. That's the real danger. Too much exposure and, thus, bad exits. If you're in lightly, you can better handle the whipsaw we're seeing now.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to!

© 2013

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

© 2005-2022 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in