Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Try The “Compounding Capital Gains” Strategy Today - 26th Oct 20
UK Coronavirus Broken Test and Trace System, 5 Days for Covid-19 Results! - 26th Oct 20
How the Coronavirus is Exacerbating Global Inequality, Hunger - 26th Oct 20
The Top Gold Stock for 2021 - 26th Oct 20
Corporate Earnings Season: Here's What Stock Investors Need to Know - 25th Oct 20
�� Halloween 2020 TESCO Supermarkes Shoppers Covid Panic Buying! �� - 25th Oct 20
Three Unstoppable Forces Set to Drive Silver Prices - 25th Oct 20
Car Insurance And Insurance Claims and Options - 25th Oct 20
Best Pressure Washer Review - Karcher K7 Full Control Unboxing - 25th Oct 20
Further Gold Price Pressure as the USDX Is About to Rally - 23rd Oct 20
Nasdaq Retests 11,735 Support - 23rd Oct 20
America’s Political and Financial Institutions Are Broken - 23rd Oct 20
Sayonara U.S.A. - 23rd Oct 20
Economic Contractions Overshadow ASEAN-6 Recovery - 23rd Oct 20
Doji Clusters Show Clear Support Ranges for Stock Market S&P500 Index - 23rd Oct 20
Silver Market - 22nd Oct 20
Goldman Sachs Likes Silver; Trump Wants Even More Stimulus - 22nd Oct 20
Hacking Wall Street to Close the Wealth Gap - 22nd Oct 20
Natural Gas/UNG Stepping GAP Patterns Suggest Pending Upside Breakout - 22nd Oct 20 -
NVIDIA CANCELS RTX 3070 16b RTX 3080 20gb GPU's Due to GDDR6X Memory Supply Issues - 22nd Oct 20
Zafira B Leaking Water Under Car - 22nd Oct 20
The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro - 21st Oct 20
Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price - 21st Oct 20
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone - 21st Oct 20
High-Profile Billionaire Gives Urgent Message to Stock Investors - 21st Oct 20
What's it Like to be a Budgie - Unique in a Cage 4K VR 360 - 21st Oct 20
Auto Trading: A Beginner Guide to Automation in Forex - 21st Oct 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? - 20th Oct 20
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation - 20th Oct 20
Last Chance for this FREE Online Trading Course Worth $129 value - 20th Oct 20
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 20th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 32 Inch Curved Gaming Monitor Unboxing and Stand Assembly and Range of Movement - 20th Oct 20
Best Retail POS Software In Australia - 20th Oct 20
From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One - 19th Oct 20
Wales Closes Border With England, Stranded Motorists on Severn Bridge? Covid-19 Police Road Blocks - 19th Oct 20
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes - 19th Oct 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout - 19th Oct 20
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids - 19th Oct 20
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth - 19th Oct 20
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before - 19th Oct 20
Is Oculus Quest 2 Good Upgrade for Samsung Gear VR Users? - 19th Oct 20
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold - 17th Oct 20
US 2020 Election: Are American's ready for Trump 2nd Term Twilight Zone Presidency? - 17th Oct 20
Custom Ryzen 5950x, 5900x, 5800x , RTX 3080, 3070 64gb DDR4 Gaming PC System Build Specs - 17th Oct 20
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again - 16th Oct 20
US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue - 16th Oct 20
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today - 16th Oct 20
Why Now is BEST Time to Upgrade Your PC System for Years - Ryzen 5000 CPUs, Nvidia RTX 3000 GPU's - 16th Oct 20
Beware of Trump’s October (November?) Election Surprise - 15th Oct 20
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc - 15th Oct 20
Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy - 15th Oct 20
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? - 15th Oct 20
Things you Should know before Trade Cryptos - 15th Oct 20
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt - 14th Oct 20
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… - 14th Oct 20
US Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind - 14th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 31.5 Inch VA Gaming Monitor Amazon Prime Day Bargain Price! But WIll it Get Delivered? - 14th Oct 20
Karcher K7 Pressure Washer Amazon Prime Day Bargain 51% Discount! - 14th Oct 20
Top Strategies Day Traders Adopt - 14th Oct 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Gold Gold Bugs and Stock Market Index Trend Forecasts

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013 May 06, 2013 - 06:51 PM GMT

By: David_Petch

Commodities

The daily chart of the Gold Miner's Bullish Percent Index is shown below, with the HUI denoted in green. The ratio has managed to rise to 6.67, accompanied by a small bounce in the HUI. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in all three instances. Although there is somewhat of a bounce, trends suggest that one more leg down is pending...


Figure 1

The daily chart of the HUI is shown below, with all three lower Bollinger bands curling down, suggestive that a bottom was put in place two weeks ago. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in 1 and beneath the %D in 2 and 3. The %K in stochastic 3 has flat lined for the past 5 months, suggestive the HUI could remain in an oversold state for some time.

Figure 2

The weekly chart of the HUI is shown below, with upper 34 and 55 MA Bollinger bands still rising, suggestive that further sideways to downward price action is likely. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K marginally above the %D in 1 and beneath the %D in 2 and 3. Based upon all technical trends of the weekly chart, the HUI still remains under pressure, with a close above 300 required to indicate short-term strength.

Figure 3

The monthly chart of the HUI is shown below, with wave [C] still thought to be forming at present. Breakdown from the arcs indicated a break of trend, with no long-term resolution expected until at least the end of 2014...the corrective phase could extend longer, a the degree of the correction was raised up one level. The lower 21 MA Bollinger band is beneath the 34 MA Bollinger band by a spread of 28 points, indicating that an oversold condition continues to develop. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. Based upon positioning of the %K in stochastic 2, there is no indication of the corrective phase of wave b (underway since 2008) ending anytime soon. If the price of gold did not rise sharply with bank funds in Cyprus frozen, or with gold shortages developing, then the looming deflation may be far sharper than we may all expect.

Figure 4


The mid-term Elliott Wave count of the HUI is shown below, with wave [C] thought to be forming at present. Wave [C] down has been underway since September 2011 and there is no indication that a bottom has yet been put in place. If a price close above 300 does not happen within the next 3 weeks, then a continuation of the downward trend is likely.

Figure 5


The long-term Elliott Wave count of the HUI is shown below, with wave [C] still underway. When wave b completes sometime between late 2014 and late 2015 (huge window of time), there will be one final leg up in wave c...this is when the HUI crosses 1000. The commodity trade over the past year should have had gold and oil rise to levels previously discussed, but intervention has capped and reversed the trade. Continue to watch the daily chart over the next 2-3 weeks and watch for how the pattern plays out...a move above 300 would confirm more upside but we have to reach that level.

Figure 6


S&P 500 Index

The daily chart of the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index is shown below, with the S&P 500 Index. The ration has declined back to 0.58 after a peaking at 0.85, suggestive that further sideways to upward price action is likely. For this chart and this chart only, the %K above the %D is a sign of weakness, while a move beneath is a sign of strength. The %K has bucked this trend over the course of the past 3 months, with the %K presently curling down. In order to confirm a top, the put/call ratio should decline to 0.48 or lower.

Figure 7


The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with upper Bollinger bands in close proximity to the current price, suggestive that further upside is likely. Lower 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands appear to be curling down, suggestive that further upside is likely. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in 1 and beneath the %D in 2 and 3. The %K rising above the %D indicates at least another 2 weeks of sideways to upward price action before any sort of a top is put in place.

Figure 8


The weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with Bollinger bands continuing to rise above the current price, suggestive that a top is looming. The lower 55 MA Bollinger band is still declining, but when it curls up, it will indicate a top has been put in place. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in 1 and above the %D in 2 and 3. Although there is no indication that a top has been put in place yet on the weekly chart, expect at least another 2-4 weeks of sideways to upward price action before any sort of a top was put in place.

Figure 9


The monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with upper 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands in close proximity to the current price, suggestive that further sideways to upward price action is likely. The lower 55 MA Bollinger band is still declining and must curl up to confirm a top...based upon this, expect sideways price action for another 2-3 months before any sort of sharp declines occur. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in all three instances. When the %K in stochastics 1 and 2 fall beneath the %D, a top will be confirmed but until then, expect further sideways to upward price action.

Figure 10

The mid-term Elliott Wave count of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with wave C thought to be forming at present. I have not labelled beneath Minor Degree yet, because of around 3-4 different labelling schemes. With a close yesterday near the early April high, a move to 1650 in the S&P 500 Index should be printed before the end of May.

Figure 11


The long-term Elliott Wave count of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green. Once the move up is done, it will complete wave [B] and result in wave [C] declining in an impulsive move to complete wave c as a flat (3-3-5) or merely become a corrective wave [C] of a triangle not likely to complete until 2020. Under either scenario, the expected low is between 800-850 around late 2014.

Figure 12


The Contracting Fibonacci Spiral cycle that I discovered nearly two years ago has an extended top due at or before May 21st, 2013. There is a possibility that a top could extend for another 2-3 months from now, but based upon this cycle's history, it is important to note the defined time post. For further reference, refer to the April 2013 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine.

Analysis of the HUI and S&P 500 Indices are published once per week, along with the US Dollar Index and 3 currencies, gold and 3 related ratios, oil, natural gas and the AMEX Oil Index. On a rotational basis, analysis of the TSX, Euro 350 iShares and the 10 Year US Treasury Index and various Exchange Traded Funds are published. There are also numerous Health Care Companies we follow, as well as precious metal stocks. By comparing various markets (Inter-market analysis), trends within the economy can be found that otherwise may not be evident.

By David Petch

http://www.treasurechests.info

I generally try to write at least one editorial per week, although typically not as long as this one. At www.treasurechests.info , once per week (with updates if required), I track the Amex Gold BUGS Index, AMEX Oil Index, US Dollar Index, 10 Year US Treasury Index and the S&P 500 Index using various forms of technical analysis, including Elliott Wave. Captain Hook the site proprietor writes 2-3 articles per week on the “big picture” by tying in recent market action with numerous index ratios, money supply, COT positions etc. We also cover some 60 plus stocks in the precious metals, energy and base metals categories (with a focus on stocks around our provinces).

With the above being just one example of how we go about identifying value for investors, if this is the kind of analysis you are looking for we invite you to visit our site and discover more about how our service can further aid in achieving your financial goals. In this regard, whether it's top down macro-analysis designed to assist in opinion shaping and investment policy, or analysis on specific opportunities in the precious metals and energy sectors believed to possess exceptional value, like mindedly at Treasure Chests we in turn strive to provide the best value possible. So again, pay us a visit and discover why a small investment on your part could pay you handsome rewards in the not too distant future.

And of course if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms regarding the above, please feel free to drop us a line . We very much enjoy hearing from you on these items.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities as we are not registered brokers or advisors. Certain statements included herein may constitute "forward-looking statements" with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Do your own due diligence.

Copyright © 2013 treasurechests.info Inc. All rights reserved.

Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pages are copyrighted by treasurechests.info Inc. No part of these pages, either text or image may be used for any purpose other than personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

David Petch Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules