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Trading Lessons

Gold And Silver - The End Is Near; Just Not In Sight

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Jun 22, 2013 - 04:00 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

Whatever expectation[s] you may have, expect the unexpected and unlike what you may expect. So far, that has been playing out quite nicely, and one of our expectations is that it will continue to unfold in the same manner, and to the ongoing surprise of most.

"Gold will be at/above $2,000 by the end of the year."

"Gold will reach $3,000 [$5,000, $10,000, etc] and silver $100, [$250, $500, etc]"

"The central bankers are [just about] out of gold." [The cupboards are likely bare.]


What is wrong with this picture?

Not one Precious Metals guru has gotten anything right in the last 18 months. All have been calling for considerably higher prices. Over the past several months none called for sub-$1,300 gold and sub-$20 silver. Many have extensive research staffs and reams of statistics to substantiate any and all claims asserted, [for higher price levels].

Lesson: Crystal balls do not work and never have, plus, when it comes to markets, Anything Can Happen!

We have expressed sentiments, [but not timing], with the eventual higher prices, and have advocated the ongoing purchase of physical gold and silver, and only to be held personally. If you do not hold it, you [most likely] do not own it. You will get back paper, instead. For the most part, we have maintained not to buy the paper futures because the charts say do not be long, plain and simple.

[As an aside, we are on record stating we have been buyers of the physical even at +$1,800 gold and +$40 silver. Would we like to have bought it cheaper? That has never been a consideration, in hindsight, nor is it of concern at current low prices. Keep buying, we say. Our reasons for buying and holding, and also recommending same for silver and gold supersede its price.

Gold and silver are wealth preservers and wealth creators, from out perspective, and that is the sole purpose for accumulating the physical, at any price, as we have been stating. Why recommend buying the physical when its price has been dropping steadily? At some point, you either will not e able to buy it at prices under $1,900 and $50, respectively, or the government may [likely] intervene and make it near impossible to buy without having to submit to close scrutiny/registration, maybe even make it illegal.

The United States becomes more and more financially isolated by the rest of the world. China, Russia, India, and many other countries are waiting for the US to crumble from within, as it has been for decades, by design, [Rothschilds, New World Order, illuminati, Bilderbergers, etc, take your choice. It has happened].

Those still in power will do everything they can to maintain it. In the process, they will destroy the economy [already in process], civil liberties, [just control remains as a major obstacle], the means of earning a living, [yet an other one, food stamp recipients at all time highs, Medicare usage through the roof]. It will get ugly, especially for those less prepared, like those who chose not to buy gold or silver at any price when they could.

Here are a few other considerations:

Government confiscation - Not very likely. A replay of the 1933 Roosevelt Executive Order scam makes little sense. Back in the 1930s, much of the public owned gold and silver as a form of money, which it was, then. Today, how many households actually own and hold gold and/or silver? 1%? 2%? Whatever the number, it is small. People since have been "dumbed down" about owning gold and silver, for it is no longer a part of currency, fiat or otherwise. Even if there were some attempted form of confiscation, those who do own and hold PMs are not [as] susceptible to government-sanctioned theft.

Devaluation - This one could catch a lot of people off guard. Most Americans think it only happens in poor, or debt-ridden countries, [Hello!] Welcome to the Third World America. The illuminati have long had plans to enslave this country, and it is almost a fait accompli. 20%? 50%? Again, no one knows, but odds are heavily in favor of devaluation. A huge reason for accumulating PMs, [at any price].

Government Bail-ins, and/or confiscation of a different kind. Was Cyprus a template? Absolutely, and not by accident. Nothing, absolutely nothing happens in the banking world that has not been sanctioned, not by just the central banks, but by the controller of ALL central banks, the Bank of International Settlement, [BIS]. This is where the head of the illuminati rule, unseen, unaccounted for, but they measure every "dollar" they deem you should be "earning" for your slave labor. The BIS is the Rothschild formula in action. Lend out fiat, demand actual assets in return payment.

M F Global was a form of [uncontested] confiscation. Printing fit-to-infinity is one of the most insidious forms of confiscation, via inflation, [since 1913 when the Federal Reserve Act came into being, and the NWO took power of this country's money supply.

"Give me control over a nation's money supply and I care not who makes the laws." Mayer Amschel Rothschild. Give the man credit, he did warn everyone in advance.

Another potential form of government confiscation will be forcing public pensions, for sure, and eventually all forms of retirement accounts to buy [worthless] government bonds.

Civil war, [government induced], social upheaval, revolution. These are the more extreme forms of what can happen that will impact the [worthless] "value" of fiat.

Whatever the reason[s], it does not matter. What does matter is that you have PMs and that you continue to buy them because the end is near. What no one knows is when or how it all will end. What seems to be truer than not is what we expressed in the opening, whatever your expectations, they will probably fall short.

There is increasing recognition and discussion about PMs decoupling of prices from the [diminishing faith in] COMEX and LBMA, and how paper prices are a joke relative to actual demand for the physical. We noted in a previous commentary that despite that recognition, the paper exchanges are still in "control" [at least for now] of PM pricing. We see nothing in the charts that suggests otherwise, yet, so here they are, just for drill, and reference.

Chart comments show monthly price is in an oversold condition, [oversold can easily become more oversold], and at a 50% of range possible support. One does not use the monthly for timing, but for context.

Important support was broken in the 1535 area. The dashed portion of that horizontal line represents the future, and on a retest, it can offer significant resistance. It depends upon price activity leading up to it, at the time.

Despite the monthly chart showing potential support, neither the weekly nor the daily show anything similar. We see no ending action, suggesting a selling climax or even a cause for a reaction rally. It may happen next week, but all one can judge is what is on the chart in the present tense.

Remember, we are talking about futures showing no reason to be long. There are so many reasons to be long the physical. The two are distinct, although the former still has an influence on the latter, however one chooses to believe about the credibility of COMEX.

No matter how many reasons one can give for saying the end is near, the charts are not supportive of the demand everyone recognizes for the physical. The takeaway on this is how influential are the [increasingly desperate] central banking controlling forces. They remain adamantly in control.

Last week's simple observation of how weak silver looks has not changed.

The same is true for the daily. Thursday was a wide range bar down on sharply higher volume; the market telling us sellers are in control. Friday, last bar, was a weak response.


By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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