Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Scottish Independence YES Vote Panic - Scotland Committing Suicide and Terminating the UK? - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Independent Scotland Will Disintegrate as Unionist Regions Demand Referendum's to Rejoin UK - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Bank of England Panic! Scottish Independence Bank Run Already Underway! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Price Ready To Go BOOM - Austin_Galt
5.Gold and Silver Potential Price Meltdown Scenario - Rambus_Chartology
6.Scottish Independence UK Catastrophe - The Balkanisation of Britain - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.The Price Of Gold And The Art Of War Part I - Darryl_R_Schoon
8.Main Reason Why Scotland Will Vote NO to Independence, 70% Probability - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Heavy Gold and Silver Shorting is Bullish - Zeal_LLC
10.10 Year U.S. Treasury Short Best Place to be Remainder of 2014 - EconMatters
Last 5 days
Scottish Independence Referendum Result NO 55%, YES 45% - Vote Forecast - 18th Sept 14
A Public Bank Option for and Independent Scotland - 17th Sept 14
The Charade of Independence for Scotland and UKIP - 17th Sept 14
Gold Report - U.S. National Debt Surges $1 Trillion In Just 12 Months - 17th Sept 14
How to Find Trading Opportunities in ANY Market Using Fibonacci Analysis - 17th Sept 14
Why Money Is Worse Than Debt - 17th Sept 14
Can Gold Price Finally Recover? - 17th Sept 14
Scotland Independence - Europe Holds Its Breath - 17th Sept 14
The Energy Prices at Risk with Scottish Independence - 17th Sept 14
Scottish Independence SNP Lies on NHS, Economy, Debt, Oil and Currency - 17th Sept 14
The Truth Behind the Dangerous "Helicopter Money" Delusion - 16th Sept 14
Central Bank Balance Bullying: Investor Implications - 16th Sept 14
U.S. Dollar and Gold Elliott Wave Projection - 16th Sept 14
The Origins and Implications of the Scottish Referendum - 16th Sept 14
The Collapse Of U.S. Silver Stocks As Public Debt Skyrockets - 16th Sept 14
Emerging Markets Are Set Up for a Crisis, What’s on Your Radar Screen? - 16th Sept 14
Scottish Independence Bank Run Already Underway - Video - 16th Sept 14
The Emergence of the US Petro-Dollar - 16th Sept 14
Economic GDP Drives Stock Prices Inestment Myth - 16th Sept 14
Don't Miss This Gold Buying Opportunity - 16th Sept 14
Why ECB QE Is Bearish For Gold Prices - 15th Sept 14
Property Rights and Property Taxes—and Countries That Don’t Have Them - 15th Sept 14
Junior Miners Breaking Out Higher Forecasting Gold and Silver Price Bottom? - 15th Sept 14
Stock Market Patiently Waiting for Mean Reversion - 15th Sept 14
A Closer Look at the US Dollar - 15th Sept 14
The Silver Price Sentiment Cycle - 15th Sept 14
Stock Market Correction Underway - 15th Sept 14
Marc Faber - “I Want To Be Diversified, I Want To Own Some Gold” - 15th Sept 14
The Myth of Nuclear Weapons - 15th Sept 14
US Dollar Forecast to Go Much Higher - 15th Sept 14
Analysis And Price Projection Of The Uranium Market - 15th Sept 14
Bank of England Panic! Scottish Independence Bank Run Already Underway! - 15th Sept 14
The Ethics of Entrepreneurship and Profit - 14th Sept 14
The Big Investor Opportunity in the Orbital Space Junkyard - 14th Sept 14
Kohl's and The Rest of The Retailers are in Deep Doo Doo - 14th Sept 14
Independent Scotland Will Disintegrate as Unionist Regions Demand Referendum's to Rejoin UK - 14th Sept 14
Stock Market Pullback Continues - 13th Sept 14
SNP Fanatics Warn of Day of Reckoning for Scottish Independence No Campaigners - 13th Sept 14
Scottish Independence Would Shake Up the Global System - 13th Sept 14
The World Order Becomes Disorder - 13th Sept 14
Is Geothermal Power About to Become The Next Great Battleground Over Fracking? - 12th Sept 14
Heavy Gold and Silver Shorting is Bullish - 12th Sept 14
Strong U.S. Dollar Undermines Gold and Silver - 12th Sept 14
Debt And The Decline Of Money - 12th Sept 14
Panic On The Streets Of London ... Can Scotland Ever Be The Same Again? - 12th Sept 14
Will The Real Silver Commercials Stand Up? - 12th Sept 14
If You Own Only One Investment, Make Sure This Is It - 12th Sept 14
Main Reason Why Scotland Will Vote NO to Independence, 70% Probability - 12th Sept 14
Better Days Ahead For U.S. Stock And Housing Market - 12th Sept 14
U.S. Meddling Dims Prospects for Ukraine Peace - 12th Sept 14
Is the Fed Preparing to Asset-Strip Local Governments? - 12th Sept 14
China Holds “Gold Congress” - Positioning Itself As Global Gold Hub - 11th Sept 14
Fire Ice Could be Energy's Magic Bullet or a Planet-killing Catastrophe - 11th Sept 14
The Mass Psychosis Of 9 /11 Will Never Be Healed - 11th Sept 14
Radical Islam's Crisis of Competing Caliphates - 11th Sept 14
Ukraine Crisis And Self-Determination - 11th Sept 14
Cameron and Miliband Desperately Attempt to Prevent Scotland Committing Suicide - 11th Sept 14
A Supply Crunch Points to Higher Uranium Prices - 11th Sept 14
The Myanmar Shadow - 11th Sept 14
Europe Takes the QE Baton - 11th Sept 14
Full Frontal Inflation - 11th Sept 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Huge Stocks Bear Market

Gold and Silver Enter "Summer Lull", Will Miss "Commodity Supercycle" Says SocGen

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Jul 08, 2013 - 03:38 PM GMT

By: Adrian_Ash

Commodities

The GOLD PRICE ticked higher in London trade Monday morning, rising from its lowest weekly close in three years as Asian stock markets fell but Eurozone shares jumped over 2% higher.
 
Major government bonds ticked higher, easing interest rates down, while the US Dollar held steady after last week's strong gains on the currency market.


A Wall Street Journal survey says the majority of economists think that Friday's jobs data mean the US Federal Reserve will start reducing its quantitative easing program as early as September.

Silver bullion today ticked back above $19.22 per ounce, regaining half of last week's 3.6% drop.

"Unlike the April rout [in gold prices]," says the latest monthly report from brokers INTL FCStone, "which drew out a slew of buyers, we are not seeing the same type of reaction this time around.
 
"[This suggests] the complex remains vulnerable from the physical side as well."
 
The gold price is now "near the lows of the year," says David Govett at fellow brokers Marex Spectron, but "For the moment at least, I do think we have done enough.
 
"I now think we are moving into the good old summer lull. Overall direction will be sideways."
 
New curbs on gold bullion imports to India – where the Hindu calendar's Chaturmas will now keep gold demand low until September – cut legal inflows by 81% in June from May's record high of 162 tonnes, a government official told journalists today.
 
Sales are however "expected to go up again" because of the gold price, the official added.
 
"India's gold imports will be somewhat the same or slightly more for July," agrees Commtrendz Research's Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, quoted by Reuters, "as some bargain hunting interest was seen."
 
The Indian Rupee fell Monday to fresh all-time lows against the Dollar, reducing the gold price discount for buyers in the world's No.1 consumer market.
 
"The [Reserve Bank of India] is definitely concerned about Rupee weakness," says Nick Verdi at Barclays in Singapore.
 
Rather than intervening to support the Rupee with cash trades, however, "It will look to combat this mostly through verbal intervention," he reckons.
 
Meantime in Egypt, the 12th largest private gold consumer in 2012, the main stock market sank almost 3% as fighting continued after more than 40 supporters of ousted president Morsi were killed at the weekend.
 
"Tensions in Egypt put pressure on local [gold] demand," says German refining group Umicore in a quarterly trading update, "as some retailers started to think of closing their shops for fears of looting."
 
With the gold price now 36% below its Dollar record of September 2011, Russia's state treasury Gokhran – the official trader of gems and precious metals – is preparing to buy gold on the domestic market after a two-year gap, Reuters reports.
 
Invited to sell gold onto the open market when prices neared their 2011 peak, "We were forbidden to buy gold directly [from Russian miners]," a source tells the newswire.
 
"If we receive permission, we will be happy to start buying gold again," the source added.
 
Russia's central has continued to acquire gold bullion for its own reserves, adding more than 78 tonnes in the last 12 months and rising to 7th place amongst the largest nation-state holders.
 
Western Europe's central banks, in contrast, have so far sold only 4.3 tonnes of the 400-tonne limit set by their Central Bank Gold Agreement this year.
 
Running from September, the agreement was first signed in 1999 to cap erratic sales by European governments as the gold price sank to three decade lows.
 
"Gold prices are going to generally drop down throughout the year," reckons Société Générale's head of commodities research, Michael Haigh, speaking today at a media briefing in Singapore.
 
Pointing to possible "price hedging" by gold-mining producers, "They'll start selling into the market," Haigh warned, "which puts more downward pressure on gold prices."
 
SocGen's outlook for gold is in stark contrast to its broader view of the commodities "super cycle", which Haigh believes will continue for another 15-20 years thanks to "population and urbanization" in emerging Asian economies.
 
"But it's not going to be an upward price for all."
 
Forecast by many analysts to overtake India as the world's No.1 gold consumer in 2013, China imported its second greatest monthly volume of gold bullion through Hong Kong in May, data showed last week.
 
Through the first 6 months of the year, separate data showed Friday, gold bullion deliveries made to traders using the Shanghai Gold Exchange totalled 1058 tonnes.
 
That was precisely 50% of the 2012 full-year total.
 
The plunging gold price however saw shares in Zijin Mining – the largest gold miner in world No.1 mining nation China – today drop 11% after it forecast "very poor results, below expectations."
 
"The fact that the gold price has fallen is actually going to be very healthy," said gold-mining fund manager Evy Hambro of Blackrock to Bloomberg last week.
 
"We need to see costs taken out of the industry; we need to see the companies stop producing the ounces that don't make money and focusing on the ones that do."

By Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and a regular contributor to MoneyWeek magazine, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at www.BullionVault.com , giving you direct access to investment gold, vaulted in Zurich , on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Adrian Ash Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014