Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market Crash and Recession Indicator Warning: Extreme Danger Ahead - Harry_Dent
2. Is This How World War III Begins, In Almost Complete Silence? - Jeff_Berwick
3.Trump Wins 2nd Presidential Debate, Betfair Betting Markets Odds Bounce - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Dislike Gold - GoldCore
5.End of SPX Stock Market Correction Nears - Tony_Caldaro
6.Get Ready for the Future - Exponential Machine Intelligence Mega-trend towards Singularity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Housing Market Bubble II – It’s Happening Again! - Andy_Sutton
8.FTSE BrExit Stock Market Panic Crash Resolves towards New All Time Highs - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Can Trump Still Win Despite Opinion Polls, Bookmakers and Pundits all Saying Hillary has Won? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Gold’s, Miners’ Stops Run - Zeal_LLC
Last 7 days
The Stock Market is an Accident Waiting to Happen - 20th Oct 16
It's Rally Time for Gold and Silver Equities - 20th Oct 16
Cashless Society – Risks Posed By The War On Cash - 20th Oct 16
China's Insanely Leveraged Housing Market Will Enter Its Secular Bull Market In 2017 - 20th Oct 16
Donald Trump Bounces Going into 3rd and Final US Presidential Election Debate - 20th Oct 16
Attention Please: Phase Two of the Gold and Silver Train Now leaving the Station. All Aboard? - 19th Oct 16
How to Successfully Trade a Stock Market Crash - Black Monday October 19th 1987 - 19th Oct 16
Tesla, Apple and Uber Push Lithium Prices Even Higher - 18th Oct 16
Silver, Debt, and Deficits – From an Election Year Perspective - 18th Oct 16
UK Property Market: Slow Growth Does Not Equate To Decline - 18th Oct 16
Trump Election Victory is in Your Power - 18th Oct 16
Stock Market More to Come! - 18th Oct 16
This Past Week in Gold and Silver - 17th Oct 16
A Falling Stock Market Cannot Be Allowed - Financial Repression Is Now “In-Play”! - 17th Oct 16
Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Trend Forecasts - 17th Oct 16
Stock Market Crash..or No Crash? - 17th Oct 16
A perspective on risk rally – Risks abound but Stock Market is Confident - 17th Oct 16
Bank of England Blames Brexit for Sterling Drop Inflation, Masks QE Money Printing Cause - 17th Oct 16
From Piety to Pride to Pity, America's Racial Divide - 17th Oct 16
Is Obama Juicing US Government Spending To Get Hillary Clinton Elected? - 16th Oct 16
Seek Your Independence: Anything Else Will Destroy You - 16th Oct 16
SNL - US Presidential Debates, 1st, 2nd, VP - Like You've Never Seen them Before! - 16th Oct 16
End of Economic Growth Sparks Wide Discontent - 16th Oct 16
Donald Trump on Life Support, May Abandon Election Campaign and War on Republican Party - 15th Oct 16
The Gold Manipulators Not Only Will Be Punished, They Have Been Punished - 15th Oct 16
Black Votes Matter - Is the US on the Verge of Mass Race Riots? - 15th Oct 16
Gold Stocks Screaming Buy - 14th Oct 16
Brace Yourself for the Quadrillion-Dollar Reckoning - 14th Oct 16
The Next Recession Will Blow Out the Budget - 14th Oct 16
John Mauldin: My Infrastructure Plan to Save the US Economy - 14th Oct 16
World War III On The Brink: War Will Continue Until It Triggers Economic Collapse - 14th Oct 16
US T-Bill Rejection At Ports In Progress - 14th Oct 16
These 2 Debt Instruments Pose Peril to Millions of Investors - 14th Oct 16
China’s Rocketing Housing Market Real Estate Bubble - 14th Oct 16
DIY Winter Home Maintenance Money Saving 22 Point Checklist to Get Ready for Winter/Fall - 14th Oct 16
US Stock Market, Big Picture View - 13th Oct 16
Stock Buybacks Main Force Driving Bull Market; Rewards Investors and Starves Innovation - 13th Oct 16
SPX Gapping Down... - 13th Oct 16
Syria - Obama Stepped Back From Brink, Will Hillary? - 13th Oct 16
The Structure and Future of Gold in the Investment and Monetary World - 13th Oct 16
Can Trump Still Win Despite Opinion Polls, Bookmakers and Pundits all Saying Hillary has Won? - 12th Oct 16
Gold and Crude Oil - General Stock Market Links - 12th Oct 16
Samsung's Galaxy Battery Just The Tip Of The Iceberg - 12th Oct 16
Hillary: Deceit, Debt, Delusions (Part Two) - 12th Oct 16
Gold and Silver Metals Show Strength Relative to the USD Index - 12th Oct 16
Announcing Trader Education Week -- a Free Event to Help You Learn to Spot Trading Opportunities - 12th Oct 16
Confirmed Stock Market Sell Signals - 11th Oct 16
Hillary Deceit, Debt, Delusions - 11th Oct 16
Trump Support Crashes to New Low of 6.4 on Betfair Odds Betting Market - 11th Oct 16
The World Is Turning Dangerously Insular - 11th Oct 16
An American Tragedy: Trump Won Big - 11th Oct 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

LEARN to Trade

U.S. Dollar, Euro and Their Influence on Gold and Silver

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Nov 29, 2013 - 04:42 PM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA


In our essay on precious metals from Nov. 22, we focused on the markets from the long-term perspective. As we wrote in the summary:

(...) the final bottom for the decline in gold, silver and mining stocks doesn't seem to be in just yet.

On the next trading day, after the essay was posted, gold, silver and mining stocks declined and dropped to their fresh monthly lows. Although we've seens some improvement in recent days, precious metals still have been trading in the narrow range.

Many times in the past, the situation in the U.S. dollar and the euro gave us important clues about future precious metals' moves. Therefore, today we'll examine the US Dollar Index (from many perspectives) and the Euro Index to see if there's anything on the horizon that could drive the precious metal market higher or lower in the near future. We'll start with the long-term USD Index chart (charts courtesy by

$USD US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD) ICE - long-term chart

From the long-term perspective, the situation hasn't changed much recently. The long-term breakout above the declining long-term support line has not been invalidated. Additionally, the USD Index reversed right in the middle of our target area. Therefore, from this perspective, it seems that the downward move - if it's not already over - will be quite limited because the long-term support line will likely stop any further declines.

Now, let's examine the weekly chart.

$USD US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD) ICE - Weekly Chart

Looking at the above chart, we see that at the beginning of the month the USD Index reached the 50-day moving average, which triggered a corrective move in the following weeks. With this downward move the U.S. dollar dropped to the low that we had seen three weeks ago, therefore, we might see a post-double-bottom rally in the coming weeks.

Keep in mind that from this point of view the current correction is still shallow, which is a bullish signal for the short term. As you can see on the above chart, recent weeks have formed a consolidation, which is likely a pause before further increases.

Let's check the short-term outlook.

$USD US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD) ICE - Short-term Outlook

As you can see on the above chart, the USD Index extended its decline and dropped to the previously-broken support/resistance line created by the June low. Last week, the proximity to this support level (or comments from the Fed about the possibility of tapering the QE program - which we don't believe, by the way) triggered a sharp move up, which took the dollar above the level of 81 once again. Therefore, since this level was reached once again, it seems that we might see a similar rally once again. Additionally, the greenback formed a daily hammer (reversal) candlestick, which is another bullish sign.

On top of that, both happened right after the cyclical turning point, which amplifies their bullish implications. Connecting the dots, it seems that another move up could be seen shortly.

Let's now take a look at the medium-term Euro Index chart.

$XEU Euro - Philadelphia INDX - medium-term Euro Index Chart

As you see on the above chart, since the beginning of the week, the euro has continued its rally. The Euro Index moved above the level of 135 once again and corrected exactly 61.8% of its October-November decline (to 136.09).

At this point, it's worth mentioning the short-term rising support line based on the July and September lows, which is slightly above the 61.8% retracement. Looking at the above chart, we clearly see that despite the recent corrective upward move, the breakdown below this line hasn't been invalidated.

Combining these two facts, we can conclude that the move up is quite likely over and the decline can continue. If we see a move below 131.56, the bearish implications will be even stronger.

Having discussed the current situation in the U.S. currency, let's see how it may translate into the precious metals market. Let's take a look at the Correlation Matrix.

Correlation Matrix

The Correlation Matrix is a tool which we developed to analyze the impact of the currency markets and the general stock market upon the precious metals sector (namely: gold correlations and silver correlations).

The correlation coefficients remain strongly negative as far as the short-term (30 trading days) link between precious metals and the USD Index is concerned. The 10-day column includes values close to 0, which simply means that gold didn't respond to dollar's move lower - which is a bearish sign.

Summing up, looking at the current situation in both currencies, we are likely to see weakness in the Euro Index and improvement in the USD Index on a short-term basis. As mentioned earlier, the USD Index reached its cyclical turning point and, taking this fact into account, it seems that the bottom of the current correction is already in. Additionally, the euro corrected exactly 61.8% of its October-November decline and approached the short-term rising support line without breaking it, which means that the move up is quite likely over. Therefore, currently, the implications for the precious metal market are bearish.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website -

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.


All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2016 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife