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Stock Market Rally Before the Big Jobs Report

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Feb 07, 2014 - 08:20 AM GMT

By: PhilStockWorld

Stock-Markets

Courtesy of Doug Short: Before the market opened, the latest new jobless claims report was a bit better than expected and European markets were rallying. The S&P 500 followed suit, rallying at the open and trading higher through the day to its 1.24% close, just fractionally off its 1.28% intraday high shortly before the bell. Today’s rally comes in advance of tomorrow’s big employment report for January. The mainstream consensus is for 175K-185K new nonfarm jobs. My forecast? A beat will be good news, and a miss will probably be dismissed as weather related.


The yield on the 10-year note rose 3 bps to 2.73%. The interim high was 3.04% at the end of 2013.

Here is a snapshot of the week so far. The index is down 0.51%

Here is a daily chart of the SPY ETF, where volume gives a better sense of investor sentiment. The 2014 daily declines have generally come on substantially higher volume than the advances.

Here is a look at the S&P 500 drawdowns (percent off highs) since the market bottom on March 9, 2009. I’ve highlighted the declines in excess of 5%.

The S&P 500 is now down 4.05% for 2014.

Here is a longer perspective, starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.


For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

- Phil

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www.philstockworld.com

Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks). Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)

© 2014 Copyright  PhilStockWorld - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

PhilStockWorld Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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