Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20
Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible - 14th May 20
Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating - 14th May 20
Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? - 14th May 20
The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities - 14th May 20
Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally - 14th May 20
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern - 14th May 20
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology - 13th May 20
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front - 13th May 20
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On - 13th May 20
The Fed Now Owns All Markets - 13th May 20
Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 - 13th May 20
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus - 12th May 20
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What - 12th May 20
US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - 12th May 20
Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 12th May 20
Hi Ho Silver : Away! - 11th May 20
The Great Stock Market Disconnect - 11th May 20
The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now - 11th May 20
Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn - 11th May 20
Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley - 11th May 20
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications - 10th May 20
US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… - 10th May 20
Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 - 10th May 20
Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? - 10th May 20
The Illusion of Owning Gold - 10th May 20 - Nick_Barisheff
The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased - 10th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter


Newsflash: Everyone Shops Online These Days!

Companies / Internet Aug 15, 2014 - 11:57 AM GMT

By: EconMatters


Antiquated Retail Sales Reports

It is obvious that retail sales numbers are going to be awful for eternity because they are antiquated reports that fail to adequately capture the changing consumer trend of shopping online. Practically nobody is going to waste their leisure time going to a physical store when they can save time, gasoline, and easily search for the best price in a matter of minutes versus spending hours driving all over town in search of the best price or deal with mall parking. The Physical store business is dead, unless one needs to get a haircut, or a good grocery delivery business hasn`t yet arrived in your area.

Wall Street needs to move into this Century with Data Analytics

I hope investors are not naive enough to believe that the economy is in trouble due to weak retail sales numbers because trust me, US consumers never pull back spending, it is what we do as a nation. We don`t even stop spending in recessions, let alone a decent job market with an economy growing at 2.5%. If shopping was an Olympic sport the US would win the Gold every year. The entire world supports the US shopping behavior, we are not a ‘savings’ culture, and never will be, it isn`t in our DNA!

Read More >> Not As Much Labor Force Slack as Yellen Believes

Do you Shop Online More These Days?

If I look at my own consumer purchases in 2014, we have probably purchased ~ 85% spent so far this year online. The only purchases we go to physical stores for are groceries, a mountain bike for an event needed the next day due to a repair issue in the old bike, and hardware items like picking out a new kitchen faucet to fix a leak, or other home improvement matters. We have purchased things like big screen televisions, furniture, to computers, plant stands, artwork, nutrition products and clothes online in the past year. I haven`t been to a mall in a year, although we live really close to an upscale mall, and that was for a haircut, due to a crowd at the usual barber shop.

Time is Money

Who would want to waste their valuable leisure time stuck in a physical store, when they could be out playing, and this goes for my significant other as well. Going to physical stores is a dying business, and the new retail sales and GDP component need to be adjusted to better reflect this changing dynamic in consumer behavior. We shop at Amazon (AMZN), Overstock (OSTK) and wholesale nutrition stores on the internet, we only go to physical stores for must-have's and emergency shopping. Entertainment does better because we still dine out at restaurants, go out to movies and theater on occassions, but frankly sports are better viewed on a big screen at home!

Amazon & Overstock Economy

The Data Analytics in this country from an economic standpoint are outmoded and need to be revised drastically, there are a bunch of bad investment decisions made by Wall Street based upon old correlations in the economy as a result that are no longer valid, and the data reports haven`t modernized to capture the changing consumer trends in this country. As we immediately go to Amazon and see the best price on an item offered by a multitude of suppliers, and it takes 5 minutes – talk about productivity gains and maximizing time efficiency, it is off the charts these days!

Bond Idiots Need to be Saved form Themselves

At any rate, all those people piling into bonds on bad retail sales numbers based upon antiquated retail correlations in the data analytics in an economy that has created more jobs since 1997 on an annual basis, and has more job opening than at any time since 2001, are in for one big surprise when they finally get their head wrapped around the new consumer world, and realize what is really going on in the data – it really should be common sense.

No Wonder ‘Wall Street’ continually gets it wrong!

But I never underestimate the herd mentality in this industry, it’s not like finance gets the same talent that goes into theoretical physics. Financial markets have some of the most illogical people on the face of the earth, compared to the money floating around in the business. Most of the investment community are brain dead group thinkers, that couldn`t analyze their way out of a paper bag if their life depended upon it. Their analysis of the retail sales numbers are atrocious and misses the entire real meaning of the data -- very few shops in physical stores anymore or traditional retail outlets!

4.7 Million Available Jobs – Most Since 2001

Yes the economy is doing just fine, focus on the job market and the most jobs available for anyone who wants them since 2001. That is all you need to focus on for a glimpse of the vibrancy of the US economy. There are 4.7 Million available job openings right now, even with the most jobs created so far this year since 1997, the Fed couldn`t ask for a better employment environment. This is why they and the entire market are so drunk at the low interest rate punch bowl that they are seriously behind the curve. It isn`t even calculable how mispriced many assets are that are going to move 4 and 5 standard deviations in such short time, when reality finally sets in, that they severally underestimated the strength of the US economy, and created a massive spike in wage inflation than blindsides the Fed & Markets when it turns all at once in the tracking data.

Read More >> Herbal Life: The Greater Fools Theory

Penny in front of Steamroller Analogy

In short, investors are going to lose a lot of money in the bond market bubble trying to pick up yield pennies, in front of the biggest principal reset steamroller in the history of financial markets all due to an overly dovish and massively irresponsible Federal Reserve.

By EconMatters

The theory of quantum mechanics and Einstein’s theory of relativity (E=mc2) have taught us that matter (yin) and energy (yang) are inter-related and interdependent. This interconnectness of all things is the essense of the concept “yin-yang”, and Einstein’s fundamental equation: matter equals energy. The same theories may be applied to equities and commodity markets.

All things within the markets and macro-economy undergo constant change and transformation, and everything is interconnected. That’s why here at Economic Forecasts & Opinions, we focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the markets to help you achieve a great continuum of portfolio yin-yang equilibrium.

That's why, with a team of analysts, we at EconMatters focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the financial markets that matters to your portfolio.

© 2014 Copyright EconMatters - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

EconMatters Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules